WBB: Northwest Conference

[parklandpride]

Now i can dig two NWC teams leading the regional rankings.


West
1. Puget Sound 15-2 18-3
2. Pacific Lutheran 12-2 17-3
3. Simpson 12-0 17-3
4. St. Benedict 14-3 16-4
5. Concordia-Moorhead 14-4 15-5
6. Chapman 9-3 12-6

[arforbes]

Chemguy, Parkland

The prediction included GFU beating PLU, which would give UPS the tiebreaker since GFU would be third, assuming they also beat Willamette, and UPS would have swept GFU while PLU split.  Obviously, that tiebreaker scenerio shifts significantly if GFU looses to PLU and it is L&C who beats PLU to create the tie.  Still, UPS would have a split and L&C would have swept PLU.  The only scenerio that favors PLU would be if Whitman were the #3 team or tied with GFU.
The tiebreaker for GFU and Whitman would also be very complicated depending upon who stands alone in first, since they split and Whitman has a W against UPS.  GFU almost has to beat PLU to have a legitimate hope in any tiebreaker, and if they do that, they probably won't need the tiebreaker.
Parkland, I share your JOY when the NWC has any teams sitting on top of the regional rankings.  I just HOPE that GFU is sitting near there at the end!  Regardless, better any NWC team than someone from California or the Midwest.  PEACE.

[arforbes]

Sorry, that last message should have been to Kibitzer and Chemguy.  Remember that the 2nd tie break, after head to head, is record vs the teams above you.    The next tie break is record vs the top teams sequentilly down to the tied teams.  No advantage in a tie for first.  Then, record against teams below you, starting with #9 and working up.  I assume that is the basis for Kibitzers comment on UPS pulling for Whitman, and my wish to pull for Whitworth.  Are any ties in the lower ranking teams broken by the above criteria before this is applied, or would it include record against both tied teams?  What in the world is the Sempert System?, which is the next tie breaker.  I better go back for a statistics course.

It is a little early in the week, but this should be a very interesting week.  GFU and PLU both control their relative destiny for league placing.  That should be a very entertaining game, given the situation, GFU's tendency to win at PLU, and GFU's relative frustration with the overtime loss in Newburg.  No prediction, just muted expectation of a very intense game.  I understand how well PLU has been playing and how streaky GFU has been playing.  Advantage PLU, I unfortunately guess.  Speaking of that, PLU beat UPS in the most recent game, and PLU swept over the weekend.  How did UPS stay ahead of them on the regional ranking?

GFU could certainly use a little help from Whitworth this week.  A Whitworth win at Whitman, {is PLU the only conference team to do that this year?} would certainly help GFU's chances for the third spot.  That would leave L&C with the only reasonable chance to tie GFU, and that is the one team we have the tiebreaker advantage with by virtue of the sweep.  Sorry Parkland, to be so partisan, but I really can't help it.

[swiss]

Speaking of that, PLU beat UPS in the most recent game, and PLU swept over the weekend.  How did UPS stay ahead of them on the regional ranking?

arforbes:  Actually it was UPS over PLU at PLU on Jan 31.  That helps explain the regional ranking which came out before this weekend (Feb 8th).

Other than that, I think you are right on with your analysis regarding the various possibilities.  Although, I hope you're wrong about a PLU advantage vs Fox.  If the Bruins play their game (as against L&C and the first 35 minutes against PLU in Newberg) they'll be OK.  They definitely rediscovered the "team" in them last Friday.  It was a great effort on their part even with Schmidt and Taylor out with injuries for much of the game.

[arforbes]

Swiss, OOPS.  I need to recheck my facts rather than relying on my foggy, old guy memory!  It certainly seemed that the Bruins woke up for the L&C game.  However, they did browse through part of the 2nd half and almost let L&C catch up.  That was part of my reference to GFU's streaky play, whereas PLU seems to be playing very consistant  complete games right now.  Thank you for finding the tie break criteria, by the way.  I did eventually find it, but it was not easy, cleverly hidden about 4 layers deep on the web site.  Sempert System??  Parkland or Steve Fiegal, anybody, help!

[arforbes]

Thank goodness for Google!

[arforbes]

Thank goodness for Google.  I was directed to the Cascade Conference site which defined the Sempert System as follows:

1. 4 points for a win on the road over a .500 or better team
2. 3 points for a win at home over a .500 or better team
    3 points for a win on the road over a team less than .500
3. 2 points for a win at home over a .500 team or better
4. 1 point for a loss to a team over .500 at any location
5. 0 pints for a loss to a team under .500 at any location
6. A .500 or better record in conference games only, determines if you are a winning team.

Where is my aspirin and calculator.  It is still better than a coin toss.  I guess the main issue is that it rewards wins against good teams on the road to a greater extent than winning at home.  Reasonably logical, but is really not that much better than a coin toss, considering potential discrepencies in who may have been injured, or what stage of the season the game occured.  And that is like real life vs a coin toss, which only resemble Vegas without the betting.

[rimshot]

I just want to put my 2 cents in here---

I do think it important to realize you are all taking about seeds to the NWC tournament.  Any loss by PLU and sweep by UPS and the two teams share the NWC conference title.  Which is a great accomplishment for both teams. And which might help in NCAA bids.  Either way the Lutes and Loggers should be hoping all other teams in the west region drop games except those leading each conference race---like Simpson, St. Ben's (the MIAC---is a complete mess right now.

Regional records are very important at this stage--PLU picked up (1 or 2?) regional wins outside of conference and UPS picked up 5.  Also I think that the Lutes and Loggers may have better power rankings (not the correct wording) than other west region teams due to the records in the NWC.

I believe the NWC is equal to the MIAC---and better than the SCIAC and IIAC---and this is what might get 2 in the tournament. 

New regional rankings will come out today--or maybe tomorrow and due to UPS (W/L) and PLU (W/W) and Simpson (W/L) Lutes should be on top and maybe UPS second but not sure--could drop to 3rd.

In my opinion the only way 2 go to the tournament is if 3 beats 2 and then beats #1.  Or if 2 beats 3 and then beats #1.

I noticed that Whitworth was missing their leading scorer in the PLU game---anyone know what happened?

[parklandpride]

Hendrickson hurt her knee against UPS the night before. She has had 2 surgerys (or atleast that is what i was told) on that same knee and it was pretty swollen up.

It wasn't public that she wasnt playing. PLU didn't know about it until they saw her on the floor in pre-game in street clothing talking to some of the other Pirate players.

Don't know if she is done for the season or not.

[rimshot]

Parkland-
thanks for the update on the whitworth player---i take it she didn't play last night either.

Whitman is making a great last 1/2 of the season run for the 3rd and final play-off spot.  In looking at all of the tie breaker stuff--is it true GFU must beat PLU in order to make play-offs if Whitman finishes 10-6?  As Whitman split with UPS and GFU didn't.  Maybe there are still too many possibilities---

I still come back to my orginal thought---wouldn't it be great if this was at least a 4 team tournament.

Does anyone have thoughts about if 2 will get to go no matter who is in the championship game?

Are the new West region rankings out?

Swiss--come on what are the Foxes chances this friday night?  Is your team ready to go---

Any Pio fans out there---what a great year for that program.

UPS-needs to recover from their poor performance eastside and take care of two teams quickly---to get ready for either GFU, LC or Whitman next Thursday.

PLU-will get to sit, watch thursday and host on saturday.

[swiss]

Does anyone have thoughts about if 2 will get to go no matter who is in the championship game?

Are the new West region rankings out?

Swiss--come on what are the Foxes chances this friday night?  Is your team ready to go---

PLU-will get to sit, watch thursday and host on saturday.

The fact that the tournament has expanded to 63 teams this year (from 50) and that most, if not all, are pool C bids would suggest to me that there is a better chance this year of 2 NWC teams getting in.  Pat Coleman has a good article in the "Daily Dose" for anyone wanting to know the details of "Selection Monday."  It's pretty mind-boggling.

New regional rankings come out today (2/15).

The Bruins have effectively entered the "one and done" section of the season a little earlier than they planned.  Unless DeeDee and Co. come up with a significant upset of Whitman, any loss by Fox likely means their season ends Saturday night.  Given Willamette's record and the ongoing rivalry with PLU, all Bruin eyes are are focused on Friday.  PLU will certainly come into this game with all guns blazing.  They have a lot to protect, including an outright conference championship and the first seed in the conference tourney.  The Bruins, on the other hand, began this season on a mission—to win the national championship—and anything less will be a heartbreak.  The last two games between these teams have been "heart-stoppers" with both coming down to the final shot in OT.  This game is likely to be just as intense and, if the Bruins win, may be followed by another.  Of course, UPS will have something to say about all of this too.  I haven't done enough homework to be certain of whether UPS or PLU wins the tiebreaker given a Bruin victory.  If the Bruins should lose in Parkland on Friday, Whitman will enter the fray (assuming a win over Pacific), and play UPS (assuming wins over Willamette and Linfield) for the right to play PLU (assuming another win over L&C).  Wow... that's alot of assuming!

The Bruins need big games out of Campbell (like Chapman last year and L&C last week) and Powers.  They need points and rebounds out of both of them.  We also need another big game from Schmidt.  She played huge against them in Newberg but was reinjured against L&C.  Hopefully, she'll be ready by gametime.  Taylor and Leith are always potent weapons but have not always been explosive at the same time.  This would be a good game to bring the "Ying and the Yang" together.  Behary has been shooting well lately and they'll need another strong game out of her.  Most of these parts came together for a while in the L&C game last week.  I thought it was a much better TEAM effort with multiple passes and open shooters rather than "one pass and a shot" which has characterized some of their poorer past efforts.  Their bench is strong and deep, but injuries have still hurt them this year.  Bottom line:  If they put it all together, this team is national championship caliber.  The earlier number two national ranking was not a mistake.  But, they have to play intelligently and keep their "wits about 'em" when the pressure's on.  And, YOU HAVE TO KNOW, it will be on!

[chemguy]

GFU will take the third seed if they win against PLU on Friday, (I can't see how they could lose to Willamette on Saturday).  If not, Whitman will take the third seed, (no way they would lose to Pacific on Friday).  So, the third seed will be decided for all practical purposes on Friday.

It gets a little more interesting for 1st and second.  If GFU wins the PLU game, but PLU wins against L&C, PLU would win the tie breaker (#4, Order of losses beginning with the 9th seed, etc), since UPS has a loss against #4 Whitman, and PLU does not.  However, if PLU were to lose to L&C, winning against GFU or not, UPS would either win outright, or win the #4 tiebreaker, since Whitman would be #3 or #4, and L&C would be #5. 

This is all predicated on UPS winning both its games this weekend, which is a pretty good bet, with Willamette and Linfield.

So, both Thursday and Saturdays games in Tacoma, but we'll have to wait until Saturday to see which location in Tacoma for the Thursday game. 

I'm sure all the teams will be bringing there best game. Should be a great finish.

[chemguy]

I see UPS and PLU swapped possitions in the latest regional ranking, 2/15. I guess that's appropriate based on last weekend's results.  It's great to have two NWC teams at the top!

[Pat Coleman]

Wish PLU had had the live stats tonight that their web site promised. Any score?

[ghr]

Pat , The power is out all over Tacoma so the game had to be moved to a community college site at the last minute. So much for the home court advantage. Plu came out hot and led 41 -18 at the half. I am not sure of the final but PLU won by about 13 I think.