WBB: Northwest Conference

[hoopnut]

I agree, this should be a fun season.  If the NWC teams continue to knock each other off, I doubt any of the teams will see much national poll love, but then again, the only poll that matters is in March.

[arforbes]

Where is everybody?  UPS sweeps the westside and hoopnut doesn't even have a post.  Anybody know how PLU managed to drop 2, or are the Whits really that good?  I am relatively surprised by Whitman, as they do not seem to have dropped off nearly as much as I thought they would after graduating most of last year's starters.  Whitworth is, of course, always a threat.  Especially in Spokane.
Biggest surprises of the year, GFU +, Whitman +, PLU -.
Any comments?  I know it is far from over, just results thus far.

[hoopnut]

UPS got the job done this weekend, but the Friday game wasn't pretty. Fairly weak defensive effort for the first 30 minutes, but then knucked down and came back from a 12 point differential to win by 5. Whitworth's post had a great weekend. If she can keep her shooting percentage up, she's going to be hard to stop. The rest of the team was a little spotty. It was Whitworths game to loose.
UPS tends to get up in the early going, then let their compition get back into the game. My observation is that this tends to coincide with going to a zone defense, and letting the opponent shoot open 3 pointers. When UPS is in their man to man defense, they tend to outscore their opponents. UPS dominated Whitman from the beginning, only let them get close once, (zone again).

PLU has a tough road ahead of them. Looks like Whiman slowed down Nikki and Long on Friday, and the rest of the team didn't pick up the slack. At Whitworth on Saturday, Nikki and Long did fine, but once again the bench wasn't able to help. PLU is in a tough spot if they want to make it into the play off picture. Pretty much a must win this week end against GFU.

If GFU continues to play well, they should have a chance at getting to the play offs, but I wouldn't count on them winning the title. Look for them to loose to PLU both times and UPS on the rematch. It should be wide open for about 6 of the teams to get to the playoffs.

[arforbes]

Hoopnut, back to the UPS loss to GFU being a fluke.  Maybe. UPS started 1 for 18and was down 18-6 with 5:27 left in the first half.  The remaining 24:33 they were a whopping +4.  Not exactly an overriding indictment of just a bad start, given the normal letdown that occurs for all teams with a double digit lead.
They shot 31% for the game, 10% below their average, while GFU shot 41%, only .5% below their average.  However, GFU defensively only allows a 30.9% average for league games, so UPS was about par for that course.  Rebounds favored GFU 42-37.  For the league season, GFU averages +3, UPS +5.
So, GFU shot normally, rebounded normally, their defense was normal, as compared to league stats.  Did the GFU defense trump the UPS offense, or was it just a bad night for UPS on their home court?
Give me a reasonable reason you feel it was the latter.  I have not seen either team, since I follow this from Wyoming where it is currently 30 below zero.  Maybe my brain is frozen, or maybe I am just an incurable Wyoming Bruin fan. 

[D 3 ballers]

A fluke or not it was a very well balanced game

[D 3 ballers]

should be a great end to the season and it will be exciting with many teams seasons hanging in the balance

[arforbes]

Hoopnut, The first part of your predictions didn't quite come true, although the PLU, GFU game was certainly tight.  Nothing exceeding a 3 point lead for either team after an initial 10-5 PLU lead.  Once again, GFU held the opponent under 30% shooting for the game and was +3 on the boards.
I would love to see the game this weekend, as such defensive tenacity is not quite the usual GFU strength.  I don't get to see a game until the PLU-GFU replay in Newburg.  I think we will know a lot about your prognosticating ability after Friday night.  Will UPS find an answer to GFU's defense?  I would love to be there.  Even if GFU wins, we still have the dreaded trip to the dry side of the wet state the week after. 
I really do miss Parkland Pride's insightful input...Maybe we can sign him for a guest editorial.

[hoopnut]

I was not suprized to see a close contest between GFU and PLU, but you're right, I missed calling that one.   Saturdays game @ GFU will definately be telling. I've only actually seen GFU play once this year, but I've seen UPS on several occations. on the last outing, all but two players on the UPS team were well below their offensive capability (Craven & Chase), and the game was still very colse right to the end. That was the worst game they played all year, and I'd say it was one of GFU's best games. That being said, I'll repeat my prior prediction on Saturday's game, UPS by 10 to 14 points. I admit I can (and have been) wrong, but I think it's a pretty safe be.

Looking further into the crystal ball, who's going to be in the NWC play off is quite murky at this time. I'd have never guessed the Bearcats would have pulled off the upset they did!  I'm going to go out on a limb and pick UPS, GFU and Whitworth as the three at the end of the season, in that order.  If UPAS can win out through the rest of the conference schedule, they would be in a good position to get an at large berth to the NCAA even if they lost the play off game. It's doubtful if any other NWC team would be in line for that, except maybe GFU.

It's going to be a great weekend. I'm looking forward to watching the GFU/UPS game.

[arforbes]

I am jealous.  I will just have to check the score from a hotel in Cheyenne.  I have to do a national guard weekend, and the 6-7 hour drive in the winter sucks worse than even potentially loosing to UPS, so I hope you prognostication for the weekend is even less accurate than last weekend.  Think of me freezing while you get to cheer your favorite team!!!  Nice job of pretty much evading the original question regarding just a bad night on the home court!  One of us eats a little crow come Friday night.  I always like mine with a little tobasco.

[hoopnut]

Hopefully the weather will warm up for you a little by this weekend, I know it has in Washington. I thought I was pretty clear on my response to your question on "was it just a bad day on home court". No, it was a terrible day for UPS, worst performance I've seen in two years. By the way, that serving of crow will have to wait until Saturday, since UPS is playing in Salem on Friday.

I listened to the web cast of the GFU-Linfield game last night. Looks like a repeat of their previous meeting. Close game right to the end and GFU came up short. This makes Saturdays game huge for GFU in order to stay in the hunt for the #1 spot.

From what I've seen, UPS will have it's biggest problems with PLU and Whitworth. I see GFU having concerns with those same teams. 

[arforbes]

OK, a little stumble along the road.  Hopefully corrected before Saturday night.  I am sure Scott will get their attention.
Just in case, I am opening a bottle of the classic red tobasco, since the green doesn't quite have appropriate hotness to cover the repulsive taste of crow.
I agree with your assessment, except I would add Whitman to the list for GFU, since we always have some difficulty there.  Don't forget L&C, since I think you have to play them on the road this time, and that is 1 team that seemed to shoot their average against us and score in the 70's.
I hope the GFU defense disrupts with your enjoyment of the game on Sat along with the UPS offense.  That being said, I hope the weather is good for you.

[wildcat11]

Congrats to the Lady 'Cats on their sweep of GFU this year.  I would love to see the 'Cats get a win vs. PLU.  It's been way too long.

[WLCALUM83]

Anyone want to comment on Whitman's or Whitworth's chances?  (I follow WLC and WLC's women lost to both of those teams over the holiday break.)

[swiss]

The NWC, as usual, is tough all around and full of surprises... even PLU with its 4 and 4 conf. record can't be counted out.  The Whits are both still in the hunt at the halfway point.  Fox beat them both handily at home but will have to play them next weekend on their home courts where they are ALWAYS tough.  If the Whits should both win the Bruins could have a tough time recovering. UPS is currently in the driver's seat, but if Fox beats them again this Sat in Newberg the pressure shifts to Tacoma.  The Whits still have to play UPS and PLU in Tacoma as well as each other.   And the Pios, a scrappy team with a good coach, may play the spoiler with any of the front runners.  Just based on the current standings, first half results, and the remaining schedule my best guess is that Whitworth, UPS and Fox will play in the conference tourney.  But injuries, spoilers, and other surprises will undoubtedly affect the mix.  Like most competitive events, it often boils down to who wants it the most.  Heart is a difficult thing to quantify but the NWC if full of it.  No team can afford to count their W's before they defeat their opponent.  Ask Whitworth who lost to Willamette.  Ask the Bruins who lost twice to Linfield.  More than likely there will be other upsets and close calls.  This is basketball at its best.

[swiss]

Another "fluke" Hoopnut?