MBB: Little East

[warrior]

Two more weeks to go with some BIG games on Tuesday!  Our game with WCSU will be HUGE.  In order to win our first league title, we will have to win our last 4 games starting with Western on Tuesday, UMD on Saturday (Senior Night), @Keene on Tuesday and then @ Boston on Saturday.  Needless to say, the chances of beating WCSU AND Keene in their gyms are not great, but certainly possible!  I wouldn't miss those games for the world!  I don't recall ever winning one in Danbury in the last 4 years, so it's definitely about time! 

[7express]

Keene is definitely in the drivers seat.  As long as they don't go 0-2 vs. Western & Eastern, their bringing home the championship.
I still think RIC is the darkhorse in this however; while Western is playing is playing Eastern & Keene this week, and Eastern goes on the road for 2 games @ Western & Keene, RIC gets to beat up on Dartmouth & USM (they've already used up their allotment of home wins against top tier teams), and get Western & Keene at home to end the season.  After Tuesday's game, I'm going to make projections the rest of the season, but IF I had to guess now here's how I'd say they'd end up:
1) Keene 11-3
1) RIC 11-3.   
3) Eastern 10-4
4) Western 10-4

What a mess that would be.  In case you wondering, where's how I came up with the numbers;

Keene; currently 9-1, loses @ Western & @ RIC, beats Eastern & Plymouth
RIC; currently 7-3, wins out against Dartmouth, USM, Western & Keene added by the last 2 at home
Eastern; loses to Keene & Western, beats Dartmouth & Boston

IF I did that right and I probably didn't, Western finishes with the 3rd seed due to their 2-0 record against Keene while Eastern was 0-2 (both 1-1 against RIC so that is useless).  RIC would sneak in the backdoor and win the home court advantage due to them being 1-1 vs. Western (the 3rd seed) while Keene would be 0-2.  If they combined them then it becomes more difficult; both would be .500, but RIC would've beaten 1 team each while Keene's 2 wins would've come against Eastern and Keene would have 0 against Western.

Western's 2 losses to USM & Plymouth really come back to bite them in the behind.  As they stand now they more then likely have to win those 3 big games; playing RIC @ the Murray is a scary thought, especially if they go 2-0 this week like I think (both road games but @ Dartmouth and @ USM.  USM has already used up their allotment of wins against the top teams), with the way Keene is playing theirs no guarantee we win that game, and Eastern as a rivalry game and great defensive team no guarantee we win that either.  Either way we may know some semblance of something after Tuesday (and especially after Saturday).

Even though Warrior and ECSUalumn are rooting against me on Tuesday night, there's 2 teams we can both root for: Plymouth against Keene and Dartmouth against RIC!

Edited Eastern & Western's record to 10-4 from 12-4, don't know where I got 12-4 from

[LECFAN32]

all the games went as planned this weekend.. some thoughts on what I saw with western - better balance. more fun to watch when the ball is moving and everyone is getting shots, and the result an 18 pt win over a team better then conn college n usm. kennedy has the ability to step out knock down the 3, post, clean up and get out in transition as he had 18 pts w. 15 min. left in the game..having him play 17 min is tough for me to grasp, especially since its evident that jr barnes only plays hard half the time hes on the floor.. since league play started jensen is lights out behind the arc.. more shots is a must. robinson has been consistent which is something he has lacked in the past so thats positive..brooks getting everybody involved and still getting 22 pts on 16 shots is very reasonable and should happen more often..these other guys can play as well. dartmouth had alot of open transition baskets throughout the game.. up to one of the guard to be back and stop the ball EARLY giving everyone else time to match in transition, giving up those layups are sloppy.

eastern looks to have rebounded after a couple tough ones, the wes. loss wasnt a bad one however as that team has shown they have the ability to play with the best in the country.

that keene game vs middlebury was great to watch, definitely made me miss those saturday afternoons! however coming back with that bad of a performance on thursday is the exact reason this team isnt ranked in the country.


agreed that the finish is virtually impossible to predict

[magicman]

Keene is definitely in the drivers seat.  As long as they don't go 0-2 vs. Western & Eastern, their bringing home the championship.
I still think RIC is the darkhorse in this however; while Western is playing is playing Eastern & Keene this week, and Eastern goes on the road for 2 games @ Western & Keene, RIC gets to beat up on Dartmouth & USM (they've already used up their allotment of home wins against top tier teams), and get Western & Keene at home to end the season.  After Tuesday's game, I'm going to make projections the rest of the season, but IF I had to guess now here's how I'd say they'd end up:
1) Keene 11-3
1) RIC 11-3.   
3) Eastern 12-4
4) Western 12-4

What a mess that would be.  In case you wondering, where's how I came up with the numbers

I think you meant Eastern and Western's  final record to be 10-4?

[7express]

Yah, 10-4.  I don't know where I got 12-4 from, it was a long night.

[7express]

Here's how Massey predicts the conference shakes out the final 2 weeks.  I realise, these aren't the way the games will get played, but it's interesting conversation.  Going to rule out the bottom 4 (Dartmouth, Plymouth, USM & Boston since they have no chance at finishing first):
Massey has RIC winning all 5 of their remaining games (4 conference 1 OOC), with the best chance at a loss being Dartmouth (76%) & Keene (also at 76%).  That would leave RIC at 11-3 in conference
They have Eastern finishing 4-0, which would leave them 12-2 in conference.  Best chances for a loss are Western Connecticut (61%) and Keene state (53%)
Massey has Keene finishing 1-3 which would leave 10-4 in conference.  They have a 46% at Western, 48% vs. Eastern, and only 24% at RIC
Massey has Western finishing 2-2 which would leave them 9-5 in conference.  39% vs. Eastern, 54% vs. Keene and only 19% at RIC.
That would leave Eastern as the conference winner, RIC 2nd, Keene 3rd and Western 4th.  If Western doesn indeed finish 4th, it's highly likely Western vs. Dartmouth would be the 4/5 game in both the men's tournament and women's tournament...it would make my life easy about where to go that Tuesday.
To note: these rankings can change daily, so if Eastern loses to Western, it's possible Keene would be favored over Eastern next weekend which would completely change the standings.

[7express]

Tuesday predictions:

Keene 78 @ Plymouth 67.
Rivalry game, so I think Keene will get challenged for 30 or 35 minutes, but I think they pull away at the end.

RIC 72 @ Dartmouth 55.
Wouldn't it be nice if Dartmouth could finally get a win over a top tier team??  Yup...but it'll have to wait.  This is close at halftime, but RIC runs away in the 2nd, much like Western did over the weekend.

Boston 67 @ USM 79.
Assuming Plymouth loses to Keene, a Boston win would leave 3 teams tied for 6th at 2-9.  I don't think I'll have to worry about that though as USM is the better team, and their at home, and with a Plymouth loss and a win would climb into the 6th spot.

Eastern 67 @ Western 73.
Even though I said this vs. Keene and I was wrong, I'll say it again: If Western scores 70 or more they win, 69-65 Western points would go either way, and 64 or less Western points and Eastern wins.  In the last meeting, Brooks had 33 of Western's 61 points pn 13 of 26 shooting.....HOWEVER that game the Colonials were missing Mark Redding and Michael Jensen.  Both of them would be back for the Colonials tomorrow, assuming neither of them get injured in practice today or in the shootaround tomorrow.  Will be interested to see how coach Geitner plays the defense on Brooks this game.  In the last meeting, it was pretty obvious who was the shooting the ball, especially when we got down late, for this game Brooks has more weapons at his disposal to deploy, so coach Geitner will have to be more careful with him this time around.

[ECSUalum]

It WILL be interesting to see the  defensive match-ups tomorrow.
@ Eastern there was a period where Kohn was guarding Brooks, and essentially shut him down. however, I see Phiilips on Brooks, Kohn on Redding and Nedwick on Jensen.  Expect Levy to give Daquan 2-3 Offensive fouls on his moves to the basket, I think he set a record for of this year.
Which ever way it goes it will be a great game to watch, and the O'Neill Center is a supurb venue to watch great games!!!

Eastern 73 Western 70

[ECSUalum]

 D3hoops.com men's Top 25, Week 10
Through games of Sunday, Feb. 5:

# School (1st votes) Rec Pts Prev.
1 Hope (15) 20-1 606 2
2 Middlebury (5) 20-1 571 1
3 Virginia Wesleyan (4) 18-2 570 3
4 UW-Whitewater (1) 19-2 537 4
5 MIT 20-1 528 5
6 Amherst 20-2 502 6
7 Cabrini 21-1 480 7
8 Mary Hardin-Baylor 20-1 451 9
9 Whitworth 18-3 419 10
10 Birmingham-Southern 20-1 400 11
11 Claremont-Mudd-Scripps 19-1 359 12
12 UW-Stevens Point 18-4 334 13
13 Wooster 18-3 324 14
14 Franklin and Marshall 19-2 306 8
15 Transylvania 19-2 245 18
16 New York University 17-2 206 19
17 William Paterson 19-3 195 20
18 Oswego State 17-3 163 22
19 Wheaton (Ill.) 17-4 133 23
20 Augustana 16-5 108 15
21 Keene State 17-4 105 --
22 Wittenberg 17-4 69 --
23 Emory 16-4 49 17
24 Albertus Magnus 20-1 46 --
25 UW-River Falls 16-5 45 --

Dropped out: No. 16 Williams; No. 21 Randolph-Macon; No. 24 Illinois Wesleyan; No. 25 Washington U.

Others receiving votes: Illinois Wesleyan 43; Williams 39; Lake Forest 35; Rhode Island College 33; Hartwick 33; WPI 31; Randolph-Macon 30; Washington U. 22; Christopher Newport 21; St. Joseph's (L.I.) 19; Buffalo State 16; North Central (Ill.) 16; Bethany 12; Eastern Connecticut 6; Gustavus Adolphus 4; St. Thomas 4; St. Mary's (Md.) 3; Wesleyan 3; Lycoming 1; New Jersey City 1; Ohio Wesleyan 1; Wabash 1.

The D3hoops.com Top 25 is voted on by a panel of 25 coaches, Sports Information Directors and media members from across the country, and is published weekly.

Nice to see Keene and Albertus Magnus get their time in the spotlight!!!

[7express]

Forgot the Massey predictions:

RIC 68-51 (76%)
Eastern 75-72 (61%)
Keene 81-71 (85%)
USM 72-63 (82%)

[pjunito]

Regional Rankings will be interesting as well; first one comes out this Wednesday. The teams that play the best in February usually make big runs in Conference Tournaments and beyond... Are there any teams that might be off the radar right know that anyone thinks might have a run left in their respective conferences?

In the GNAC, I think Johnson and Wales could be dangerous. They have a great scorer in Lamont Thomas; they won the conference last year and have the ability to shoot the 3 ball very well.

[7express]

Johnson & Wales in the GNAC, Springfield in the NEWMAC, Bowdoin or Tufts in the NESCAC.

"Are there any teams that might be off the radar right know that anyone thinks might have a run left in their respective conferences?"

[ECSUalum]

DaQuan Brooks, Western Ready For Big Game With Eastern

http://www.courant.com/sports/college/hc-western-daquan-brooks-0207-20120206,0,485143.story

[ECSUalum]

Daquan Brooks  82 Eastern Connecticut 81

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[7express]

Sure seems like he scored all 82 points.....actually he only had 48, but seems like he either scored or assisted on every West Conn basket from the 8:30 mark to the end of the game.  Btw, I'm sorry, but Eastern totally choked, there's no question about that.  Up 14 I think it was with 8:00 minutes left, up 8 with 2 minutes to go, and still up 6 with a minute left and somehow Western forced OT.  After being punched in the face, Eastern somehow stood up and with a nice basket by Kohn with 4.5 seconds left Gave Eastern the lead....too bad they got beat down the court for the layup at the buzzer, so if your counting at home: Eastern had a 14 point lead at one point, was still up by 8 with 120 seconds to play, up 6 with 60 seconds left, and went up 1 with 4.5 seconds left in OT...yet somehow managed to lose the game.  Eastern shoots 7-19 from the free throw line, and even if they shoot 10-19 (which still would've been an awful percentage mind you), they probably end up winning this game by 5+ in regulation.  Sure DaQuan had a great game as always, but if you hit your free throws, you don't have to worry about overtime, because your already on the bus home with a road W by the time the final buzzer sounded in overtime.  Eastern has no one to blame but themselves for why they lost....their called free throws for a reason, their supposed to be free points.