MBB: Little East

[7express]

RIC up to #16 in the latest poll:



#

School (1st votes)

Rec

Pts

Prev.



1

St. Thomas (24)

24-1

624

1



2

Amherst (1)

23-2

596

2



3

Illinois Wesleyan

21-3

560

4



4

Middlebury

22-2

540

3



5

North Central (Ill.)

21-3

510

8



6

WPI

23-2

430

5



7

Williams

22-3

428

10



8

Whitworth

22-3

408

12



9

UW-Whitewater

21-4

398

14



10

UW-Stevens Point

21-4

388

15



11

Catholic

22-3

385

13



12

Hampden-Sydney

22-3

360

11



13

Rochester

21-3

339

6



14

St. Mary's (Md.)

22-3

296

7



15

Calvin

22-3

269

19



16

Rhode Island College

22-3

265

20



17

Wooster

21-4

261

9



18

Ramapo

21-4

199

16



19

MIT

20-4

172

22



20

Wheaton (Ill.)

19-5

171

21



21

Virginia Wesleyan

19-6

145

--



22

Washington U.

19-5

84

17



23

Rose-Hulman

22-3

79

18



24

Ohio Wesleyan

19-5

44

--



25

Cortland State

21-4

31

23


Dropped out: No. 24 Stevens, No. 25 Wesley.

[LECFAN32]

Saw the score but figured I would watch anyway but I couldn't even do that. Probably better off.

Surprised to see that from Leroy he had come a long way, and had worked hard to come back.

It's team has obviously mailed it in.saw mike Jensen tonight at the war memorial in Danbury and he was not pleased with how it turned out, also saw mike Kennedy who would have been a big help this year.

Rememberd that he had only played 3 years of college ball, wanted to get cleared for this year, but the western ad told him. Not to bother with the  appeal even though he had not yet graduated.

I'd like to see eastern take it home. Although ric is looking great and Roberts is really tough on the glass,  carter is does whatever the team needs that day and Chris burton is a budding star and a highlight waiting to happen. this freshman big Lawton they got at the mid semester must be good to be breaking n and receiving nice minutes..future looks bright assuming Walsh stays.

[7express]

Saw the score but figured I would watch anyway but I couldn't even do that. Probably better off.

Surprised to see that from Leroy he had come a long way, and had worked hard to come back.

It's team has obviously mailed it in.saw mike Jensen tonight at the war memorial in Danbury and he was not pleased with how it turned out, also saw mike Kennedy who would have been a big help this year.

Rememberd that he had only played 3 years of college ball, wanted to get cleared for this year, but the western ad told him. Not to bother with the  appeal even though he had not yet graduated.

I'd like to see eastern take it home. Although ric is looking great and Roberts is really tough on the glass,  carter is does whatever the team needs that day and Chris burton is a budding star and a highlight waiting to happen. this freshman big Lawton they got at the mid semester must be good to be breaking n and receiving nice minutes..future looks bright assuming Walsh stays.

I still believe this is a team that can take home the title because really outside of RIC none of the other teams are that dominnant this year like the last couple of years.  But after watching 230 of 240 minutes of basketball this month (didn't drive up to Keene and shut the video off after 30 minutes), it really looks like the team has mailed it in and is looking forward to the end of the season.  Even though I picked them to win, if they lose by 20 I wouldn't be that shocked either.

[pjunito]

7,

What woudl West Conn have to do to pull out a victory? I like your bold predicition, but a 5-20 team usually has a lot of holes in their execution. What is the key to an upset?  My fear is that East Conn dislikes West Conn just as much as West Conn dislikes East Conn and won't take them lightly even though the record is so poor.

[7express]

Having a Phil Starks and LeRoy back would help for starters.
What ultimately killed us the first time was we went about 8 minutes in the first half scoring 1 point and hitting 0 field goals can't have that again.  Get out on Brian Salzillo and the Eastern shooters (9-19 from 3 Salzillo was 5-10), run an offense, take care of the ball, and get consisting scoring.  Last time Starks was leading scorer and only one in double digits and he only finished with 12 points.  LeRoy Mayers and JR Barnes have been playing well, so hopefully those 2 and Joe Groski in the front court can help take some of the scoring load off of Starks.

Will be a tall test and a lot to ask for, but what makes this week so exciting is each team starts tonight at 0-0.  So a dissapointing, 5-20 Western squad has the same record as RIC and Eastern: 0-0. 

[7express]

RIC over Dartmouth 62-58.
Damn, wouldn't it have been something if Dartmouth was able to pull it off??  Calling this game close was about the only thing I predicted right all day.
Keene 74-68. 
0-1 on what would be 0-3 on predicting road upsets.  After leading 39-31 at halftime, it looked like they became lackadasical in the 2nd and had to come from behind to win what probably should have been a closer than expected game.
USM 85-65.
What a clunker this turned out to be.  Boston only hit 33.3% of their free throws (only took 6 attempts though), only turned it over 8 times, but got outrebounded by the smaller Huskies and allowed USM to shoot over 50% for the game.
Eastern 65-54 over Western.
The score at halftime was Eastern 34-30.  The score at the 7:55 mark was Eastern 50 Western 34.  Not gonna win many games scoring 4 points over a 12:05 stretch of action.

Semifinal Friday:

#4 USM @ #1 RIC 6 PM
#2 Eastern vs. #3 Keene 8 PM.

[ECSUalum]

Nick Acenfora and Sean Harrison.... great interviews with ECSU womens and mens assist basketball coaches Allison Coleman and Ryan Wilde, on Eastern Athletics Weekly.  Both coaches gave some nice inside info on coaching, recruiting, scouting, at the D-III level, which we do not hear too much about, on top of  the their keen insights on the LEC Tournament games and matchups.

Except  for the USM/UMB and perhaps the WCSU/ECSU games, the first round LEC tourney games were relatively close, especially RIC's game with UMD and Keene State game with Plymoth State.  RIC always seems to find a way to win, however, watching the interview with Coach Walsh illustrated he was not too happy with his team's performance, stating that they might have taked UMD too lightly. 
Keene was lucky they pulled out their win as Plymouth had even scoring from Skevas and Burt, eisenburg, and Nwoleji, with Burt the leading scorer with 17 points.  The difference in this game was Keene's huge rebounding advantage, 44-32.
Eastern again had balanced scoring from Robitaille, Salzillo, Preston, Garrow and Brando Yarborough added 11 with some solids minutes after Tyler Hundly left early in the game for stiches in his lip.  Eastern handled the WestConn press reasonably well and only turned the ball over 12 times all game.  Press, TO performance will be very important for ECSU especially if they get into the title game with RIC, as this was disruptive in their last outing vs RIC at Geissler Gymnasium. Trechon Preston had three big steals vs WCSU each of which seemed to take the wind out of their sails when they were making comebacks during the game.

WestConn
TOTAL FG% 1st Half: 40.7%  2nd Half: 29.0%  Game: 34.5% 
3-Pt. FG%   1st Half: 50.0%  2nd Half: 11.1%  Game: 31.6% 
F Throw%   1st Half: 37.5%  2nd Half: 71.4%  Game: 53.3%

EastConn
TOTAL FG% 1st Half: 44.4%  2nd Half: 40.0%  Game: 42.6% 
3-Pt. FG%   1st Half: 33.3%  2nd Half: 33.3%  Game: 33.3% 
F Throw%  1st Half: 57.1%  2nd Half: 87.5%  Game: 73.3% 

[7express]

Latest rankings:

Northeast
1 Amherst 23-2 23-2
2 WPI 23-2 23-2
3 Williams 20-3 22-3
4 Rhode Island College 22-3 22-3
5 Middlebury 19-2 22-2
6 MIT 19-4 20-4
7 Springfield 18-7 18-7
8 Brandeis 17-7 17-7
9 Curry 18-7 18-7
10 Westfield State 19-4 21-4
11 Eastern Connecticut 18-4 18-7
12 Tufts 16-5 17-8

Pretty much assures RIC is safe now.  Even though IIRC the final rankings aren't public and even if RIC were to lose to USM I don't see how you could drop them below MIT/Springfield (they play head to head in the NEWMAC semi's Saturday) AND Brandeis who has a tough road game @ NYU to end the UAA season Saturday, especially considering they have beaten both MIT & Springfield, and it seems like the last couple years the cut off is that 6/7 spot in the Northeast.  The ONLY thing I'd possibly be worried about is if they get drubbed by USM Friday then Springfield beats MIT & WPI to win the NEWMAC, but in that case MIT likely is the first NE region team missing the field

[7express]

Semifinal predictions:

#3 Keene vs. #2 Eastern.
They just played last Wednesday with Eastern winning in overtime, and this is a rematch of the 2012 LEC semifinals in which Eastern won in overtime.  Not sure of the exact numbers, but Eastern has won like 12 of the last 13 games against Keene.  Their are just some teams you just cannot beat no matter what you do, and Eastern looks like that team to Keene.  All the games are either: A) very close final scores in regulation or B) Goes to overtime with Eastern winning by around 5-12 points, this is another one of those.
Eastern 79 Keene 72 (overtime).  Ryan Martin hits a 3 with 3 seconds left to force OT.

#4 USM @ #1 RIC.
USM has had a great year, but their semifinal run ends here.  I don't think RIC has much trouble (they won by about 20 in Providence last week).  The key to beating RIC is to shoot over 45%, but outside of Alex Kee and Conor Sullivan they don't have many other pure scorers.
RIC 66-53

[DMJSports]

Here is an interesting look at how individuals impact a team's performance.  The following analysis is not based on individual stats, but compares team performance with individual players in and out of the lineup.  This is an objective analysis using actual data for every game each team in the Little East Conference has played this season.  Based on this comprehensive analysis, the following players are making the strongest impact on their respective team:


Eastern Connecticut: CHRIS ROBITAILLE slows down the game and actually reduces Eastern Connecticut's scoring rate by 0.5ppg but also reduces opponent scoring rate by 19.7ppg - a net gain of 19.2ppg.   BRIAN SALZILLO and BRANDON YARBOROUGH also make a strong positive impact.

Keene State: JESSE LACROIX does a nice job of not only improving Keene State's scoring rate by 0.9ppg but also reducing opponent scoring rate by 4.2ppg - a net gain of 5.1ppg.   RASHAD WRIGHT also make a strong positive impact.

Mass-Boston: JAHLEEL MOISE does a nice job of not only improving Mass-Boston's scoring rate by 2.3ppg but also reducing opponent scoring rate by 4.8ppg - a net gain of 7.1ppg. 

Mass-Dartmouth: JAKE LAGA slows down the game and actually reduces Mass-Dartmouth's scoring rate by 3.0ppg but also reduces opponent scoring rate by 18.8ppg - a net gain of 15.8ppg.   ABI AKANNI also make a strong positive impact.

Plymouth State: UCHE NWOKEJI slows down the game and actually reduces Plymouth State's scoring rate by 1.3ppg but also reduces opponent scoring rate by 5.3ppg - a net gain of 4.0ppg. 

Rhode Island College: CHRIS BURTON does a nice job of not only improving Rhode Island College's scoring rate by 1.8ppg but also reducing opponent scoring rate by 10.2ppg - a net gain of 12.0ppg.   TAHRIKE CARTER, NYHEEM SANDERS and MICHAEL PALUMBO also make a strong positive impact.

Southern Maine: ALEX KEE speeds up the game and therefore improves Southern Maine's scoring rate by 12.1ppg but also allows opponent scoring rate to increase by 4.8ppg - a net gain of 7.3ppg.   MIKE POULIN also make a strong positive impact.

Western Connecticut: JOSEPH GROSKI speeds up the game and therefore improves Western Connecticut's scoring rate by 12.1ppg but also allows opponent scoring rate to increase by 0.3ppg - a net gain of 11.8ppg. 


Looking at all the conference players, here are the ones whose court presence makes the most positive impact on the following team stats:

ERIC FAZIO (Keene State): the data indicates Keene State scoring rate increases by 12.1 ppg when FAZIO is on the court.

CHRIS ROBITAILLE (Eastern Connecticut): the data indicates opponents scoring rate decreases by 19.7 ppg when ROBITAILLE is on the court.

CONOR SULLIVAN (Southern Maine): the data indicates Southern Maine shooting percentage rate increases by 7.0 percentage points when SULLIVAN is on the court.

JAKE LAGA (Mass-Dartmouth): the data indicates opponents shooting percentage rate decreases by 9.5 percentage points when LAGA is on the court.

ALEX KEE (Southern Maine): the data indicates Southern Maine made shots rate increases by 5.0 per game when KEE is on the court.

JAKE LAGA (Mass-Dartmouth): the data indicates opponents made shots rate decreases by 8.1 per game when LAGA is on the court.

UCHE NWOKEJI (Plymouth State): the data indicates Plymouth State offensive rebounds rate increases by 4.5 per game when NWOKEJI is on the court.

PHIL STARKS (Western Connecticut): the data indicates opponents offensive rebounds rate decreases by 4.7 per game when STARKS is on the court.

CHRIS ROBITAILLE (Eastern Connecticut): the data indicates Eastern Connecticut turnovers rate decreases by 5.6 per game when ROBITAILLE is on the court.

CHRIS BURTON (Rhode Island College): the data indicates opponents turnovers rate increases by 4.8 per game when BURTON is on the court.

CHRIS BURTON (Rhode Island College): the data indicates Rhode Island College steals rate increases by 3.7 per game when BURTON is on the court.

JAMES ODNEAL (Southern Maine): the data indicates Southern Maine assists rate increases by 5.0 per game when ODNEAL is on the court.

UCHE NWOKEJI (Plymouth State): the data indicates Plymouth State defensive rebounds rate increases by 7.9 per game when NWOKEJI is on the court.

[ECSUalum]

DMJ,

Thanks for the analysis and welcome to the LEC board.  What type of algorithms are used for your calculations?

[tomsullivan1963@hotmail]

USM played the most impressive half of basketball I've seen all season vs. UMB shooting 71% from floor, 67% from 3, and putting up 58 points in first half. When they are making shots, they can beat anyone. This performance was in wake of a sloppy 1 and 4 finish. They played RIC to the wire in Gorham and hung in down there despite a horrible offensive night. It's a Jekyl and hyde club, but when they are good they are VERY good. Depending on which team shows up, they have a shot tomorrow. 

[7express]

We actually have a USM fan!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  They do exist.

Now, do Plymouth fans exist???

[7express]

USM played the most impressive half of basketball I've seen all season vs. UMB shooting 71% from floor, 67% from 3, and putting up 58 points in first half. When they are making shots, they can beat anyone. This performance was in wake of a sloppy 1 and 4 finish. They played RIC to the wire in Gorham and hung in down there despite a horrible offensive night. It's a Jekyl and hyde club, but when they are good they are VERY good. Depending on which team shows up, they have a shot tomorrow.

it was a nice win against Boston (I picked them to lose, thought that was gonna be a pretty easy Boston victory), but the defense USM would have faced against the Beacons (almost non existant) is going to be night and day compared to what they face against the Anchormen; statistically the best defensive team in the conference and one of the best in all of D-3 basketball.

[tomsullivan1963@hotmail]

Agree, RIC gets after it defensively and offense will not flow like the other night. No doubt it will be a tough task. However, as good as RIC plays d, they struggle offensively and seem to let teams hang around. If Tomah and Kee can make shots, I look for USM to be in it. Either way, Huskies have had a good year and this team has restored some respect for the program. Should carry into next year if they can find a point guard.