MBB: Little East

[7express]

Sat predictions:

Dartmouth 62 @ Eastern 70.
Let's see how Eastern can bounce back from Tuesday's demorilizing loss.  I think they'll let Dartmouth hang around for a while, but they should pull away at the end.  If they let the Tuesday loss linger over them, it could be a LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOONG final 3 games for the Warriors.

Keene 87 @ Western 90.
Complete opposite of the women's game taking place prior; the women's game will be all offense no defense, this game will feel like an NBA game, points aplenty from Ryan Martin & DaQuan Brooks as defense will be optional for most of the game.  Last meeting DaQuan Brooks had 47 to lead Western to the 94 87 win.  Interesting to note in that last meeting up @ Keene in January, Western was the hot, just fresh into the rankings road team (had started by winning 12 of their first 13 games) and came back from a 2nd half deficit (lead mainly by Mr. Brooks) to pull out the road team.  This time the roles are reversed: Keene is the hot, just fresh into the rankings road team as they have won 9 straight, and coincidently, haven't lost since that Brooks show up @ Keene exactly 1 month ago from today.  Keene clinches at least a share of the conference title with a win, and the only team that can catch them is Eastern.  I will say this however, IF we play the same way we did for the first 32 minutes on Tuesday we lose this game.  Sorry Warrior and ECSUalum, but I don't see Keene missing those free throws at the end of the game like Eastern did Tuesday.  2 things to watch out for:
1) It seems like the game after Brooks has a great game (35+ points) he's relatively quiet the next game: After scoring 47 vs. Keene, he only had 25 the next game in a loss @ Plymouth; after going for 35 against RIC he only had 24 on 10-22 shooting the next game @ USM; Against Conn College where he exploded for 47 including cracking the 2,000 point plateau his next game he was held in check, as he only recorded 22 points against Dartmouth the next game (he only shot the ball 22 times that game though); he had 48 against Eastern Tuesday....
2) After a big win on a Tuesday, the team has come out extremely flat the following Saturday: Big win @ Keene was followed up by a loss @ Plymouth; big win against RIC was followed by a loss @ USM.  Granted those were 2 bad teams, both road games, and both overnight trips, but it's still interesting none-the-less.

RIC 72 @ USM 59.
USM has already used their 1 home win over a top tier team already this year.  However they beat them in Maine last year, and last year's RIC team looks better then this years addition; likewise the USM team last year looks worse then this years Huskies squad so I guess it's possible for them to do it again.  I mean RIC just lost @ Dartmouth so...

Boston 52 @ Plymouth 67.
Boston is eliminated from playoff contention with a loss to the Panthers.  Panthers lost the first meeting, and would fall behind the 8 ball losing this meeting.

[LECFAN32]

huge game for western vs keene who is playing like one of the best teams in the region if not country..among other things inserting rashad wright into the starting lineup has made a huge difference (excellent coaching move right? figuring out that a 6'10 guy that runs like a dear and played 10 plus minutes a game as a freshman at college of charleston that was ranked within some top 100 rankings out of south kent should start)

there may not be the same student support but for all intensive purposes this is a bigger game then eastern, a win puts them into a tie for 1st place where they would take the tie breaker based upon sweeping keene...a loss would put keene up a full 2 games again this late in the year, and spaulding gymnasium hosting the tourney is not a good predicament for away teams. will need contributions from everywhere as I believe keene will gear their attention to keeping brooks under 30 ( on lots and lots of shots as we all know).

also  starting to think in terms of an at large bid another win vs a regionally ranked opponent would be big.. western has a few bad losses, but more big wins.. and with ric and eastern fading a bit as of late this could be a big oppurtunity

[AllStar]

LECFan:

Not to be picky, but Western is currently 2 games back of Keene State.  A KSC win tomorrow would mean that the Owls clinch at least a share of the regular season title and Western would be eliminated from first place contention (because they'd be 3 games back with 2 games to play in the conference).

[7express]

there may not be the same student support but for all intensive purposes this is a bigger game then eastern, a win puts them into a tie for 1st place where they would take the tie breaker based upon sweeping keene...a loss would put keene up a full 2 games again this late in the year, and spaulding gymnasium hosting the tourney is not a good predicament for away teams. will need contributions from everywhere as I believe keene will gear their attention to keeping brooks under 30 ( on lots and lots of shots as we all know).
------------------------------------------------

No, were still a game back even if we win.  Those losses to Plymouth and USM are really killing us.  However, all we'd need is for Keene to lose to either Eastern (at home) or RIC (on the road) and we clinch the 1 seed because the head-to-head would be 2-0 Western, and head-to-head is the first tiebreaker if 2 teams finish tied.

[7express]

BIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIG day at the O'Neill Center tomorrow, not just the guys game but the girls game as well (even though I doubt anyone really cares).  Probably 1 of the biggest double headers for Western in the last 3 or 4 years definitely the biggest the last 2.  Already touched on the men's game, a Western win leaves them 1 back of Keene with 2 games to play, and they would own the important head-to-head tiebreaker.  The Western women are 1 up on Dartmouth for the final home spot in the first round, and a win over Keene would give Western the tiebreaker over Dartmouth.  If Western loses to Keene, and they both finish with the same conference record, Dartmouth wins the tiebreaker in that case.  Granted, that won't matter that much, especially if the guys get 1 of the 2 bye's, but since I have class on Tuesday until 2:15 I really don't feel like driving up to Dartmouth on a Tuesday night.  Getting to Providence will be difficult enough on Tuesday, hopefully that's the last weekday road trip I have to take this year.

[warrior]

Seems like everyone is leaving Eastern for dead after losing by a point to a great team, lead by one of the nation's best players, on their home court, but, combined with a few Keene losses, we are only three wins away from a share of the league title, a first for us!  Nick, Jamie and Ham are three very experienced 4 year players who have helped turn the program around.  I KNOW they will not go down without a fight.  We are of course a long-shot, but I wouldn't count us out! 

One thing's for sure, 7express, we'll be rooting for your boys vs. Keene today! Hopefully Daquan has something left in the tank.

PS Congrats to Nick, Jamie, Ham and Chay on Senior Day! 

[amh63]

Think 7 Express had a good time last night.  The fans prevented our sight line of the game at time in a tense game.  7Express did not seem to mind since he was surrounded by at least 8-10 attractive female fans.....at least 6 sitting on the floor at his feet it appears!

[LECFAN32]

my apoligies however the game being bigger then last weeks eastern game was my point.. this game is ridiculous right now tied at 81 with 8 to go..oli hunter has come to play for keene with multiple highlight real dunks an really presents a matchup problems.. role guys playing big roles for western..love seeing that.

[ECSUalum]

Congrats to Amherst Lord Jeffs for a breathtaking 77-75 OT win over Middlebury Panthers, and WCSU for theirs over Keene St 108-105 in OT!!! Watched both games streamed over Amherst College and LEC TV
What great college basketball we have seen over the last week!!!

[7express]

Think 7 Express had a good time last night.  The fans prevented our sight line of the game at time in a tense game.  7Express did not seem to mind since he was surrounded by at least 8-10 attractive female fans.....at least 6 sitting on the floor at his feet it appears!

No, not at all 
Thanks for dinner and the hospitality up @ Amherst last night Amh63, enjoyed meeting you.  Hopefully next season, or even possibly for an NCAA tournament game this year we can do it again!

[7express]

I'll have predictions in next post, but were 2 down, 1 game to go, and this game will probably be the toughest: @ RIC in their place.  Keene is still in the drivers seat, hopefully they blow both games next week.   4 teams all finishing at 10-4 is still a possibility, and imo, is more likely to happen than Keene winning the division by themselves.  Not entirely sure (mainly because I can't find tiebreakers on the LEC site), but I beleive Western wins in that case, and I think they have the tiebreaker now over both Eastern, RIC, and of course Keene.  I'll talk more about that later however.
I'm still not sure of this teams ability to win a crucial, big game, on the road however, that remains to be seen.  That RIC gym is a pain in the ass to play in first of all, and I'm sure that place will be nuts Tuesday night.  DaQuan Brooks was talking about winning championships earlier this season, now's the time to back that up.  It's proven they can win at home (undefeated), but can they win a crucial game on the road in a hostile environment??  Probably the difference between hosting and playing the championship up @ Spaulding.

[7express]

Sat results:

Plymouth over Boston 82-72.
That loss eliminates the Beacons from playoff contention because Plymouth and USM still have a game left against each other, so 1 of those teams is guaranteed a 4th win.

Western in overtime 108-105.
Race for first just got interesting again.  I know we beat them twice, but I want absolutely no part of Keene again this year whether it be in Spaulding or at the O'Neill center.  Just like last year where I wanted Keene in the semifinals instead of Eastern (we were 0-2 against Keene last year but 2-0) against Eastern, it's extremely difficult to beat a good team 3 times in 1 season.  Granted it does happen, but most of the time (from what I've seen) the team that lost the previous 2 meetings makes adjustments to get that 3rd win.  In the first win, we had DaQuan score 47 of 97 points to eek out a 9 point win, then today we had a career day from Shawn Mobillio; 7-9 shooting 19 points.  If not for Mobillio, we get run out of our own gym.  I doubt if we play Keene again (most likely in the finals) Mobillio gets those 19 points again, and boy did we need every one of those 19 points.   And I know we won so I shouldn't be complaining, but our defense is what's holding us back from being a legitimate final 4 contender.  As it is, we probably go out in the 2nd round, possibily the regional semifinals.  I'm sorry but it is an ABSOLUTE JOKE to give up 61 points in the first half, and no, I don't care that you scored 55 yourself and shot 64.8%. 61 points in a half is absolute garbage.  Some teams have trouble to score 61 in a whole game and you gave up 61 in a half?!?!  In the girls game before us, the winning team scored 55.....................................................and that went to overtime.  Maybe the Western women should teach the men how to play defense and the men should teach the women how to score consistantly??

Eastern 72-65 over Dartmouth.
2 things 1) Why does the LEC have to have all the conference games on the same night??  You don't know how much I wanna see this Eastern Keene game next Tuesday, too bad we play RIC the same day
2) Why can't we get scoring updates of other conference action at home games??  All the people at the scorers table need is a computer to log onto the d3hoops scoreboard OR littleeast.org and get the scorers here.  Lots of great action today on both sides (RIC @ USM women, Boston Plymouth men elimination game, Dartmouth/Eastern).  It would be nice if I had somewhat of an idea how the rest of the games went and wasn't racing home afterwards to get the scorers.  Even if you just told us the halftime scores I'd be alright with that because at least I have an idea.  Plymouth, USM and I think Eastern & Keene do it, why can't Western do it??

RIC 77-65 over USM.
Think they want their loss to Dartmouth back right now??

Standings/tournament:
1) Keene 18-5 (10-2)
2) Western 19-4 (9-3)
2) Eastern 18-5 (9-3)
4) RIC 18-5 (8-4)
5) Dartmouth 11-12 (5-7)
6) USM 10-12 (3-9)
6) Plymouth 8-14 (3-9)
8) Boston 5-18 (1-11)
Western gets tiebreaker over Eastern (2-0 vs. Keene compared to 0-1), and Plymouth gets tiebreaker over USM (won the only meeting; rematch is Tuesday).  Boston is officially eliminated from playoff contention.

[Pat Coleman]

My enjoyment of that game was subverted by the play-by-play call on the video. Apparently some miscalled three-pointer midway through the first half cost Keene State the game, never mind that there were about 70 possessions after that one!

[warrior]

Well, we're still alive in the 'fight for first'!  If we can take care of Keene on Tuesday (big if!) and RIC can take care of Western and Keene (another big if) - we're in!  Our seniors really came through on Senior Day - Nick 20 pts, Hamilton 19 pts, Jamie - a 12/11 double double and another nice dunk, and Chay had another good day at the point.  I don't know about the other teams, but Eastern does a really nice job with its Senior gift - a beautiful framed photo montage.  Someone told me that Springfield, with all their money, gives out paper-weights! I hope they were kidding!  Does anyone know what the other LEC teams do?

[7express]

Playoffs: Note I'm still unsure what the LEC tiebreakers are (I wish they had it on the site).  I know head to head is the first, then it goes to winning percentage against teams from the top down, I'm not sure what's after that, reading old articles one of them said a tiebreaker 1 year was decided by road wins in conference, so we'll say thats tiebreaker #3.  Who knows what's tiebreaker #4 and I'm not going there.
3 way tiebreakers: compare the results against teams in the tiebreaker, and if one has a superior winning percentage take them out and work your way down until your at 2.  If you can't break it that way, you compare each team against team in first and work your way down the list.  This will be less head spinning Tuesday, but posting it now to let you know where every team stands.  Today I'm just going to list the teams record and what would happen; Tuesday (or Wednesday since it will be late when I get home), I'll have what the team needs to do the following Saturday to get that spot, but too confusing to do that now.
There's still the possibility of a 3 way tie for first at 11-3, a 4 way tie for first at 10-4, and a 3 way tie for 2nd at 10-4/9-5.

Keene: can either finish 12-2 (win both games), 11-3 (split) or 10-4 (lose both games).  If they win both games, nobody can catch them because no one else would be able to get 12 wins, if they finish 11-3, they would be either first, second or 3rd.  If  they finish 10-4 that would put them anywhere for 1st to 4th depending on what happens with RIC, Eastern and Western.  They already lost the tiebreaker to Western (0-2).  If they beat Eastern they win that tiebreaker (2-0), if they lose the tiebreaker (Eastern would be 1-1 against Western while Keene would be 2-0).  Likewise, if they beat RIC they win that tiebreaker (2-0), it's if they lose it gets interesting, and is based on whether RIC or Western wins Tuesday.  Keene's pretty screwed actually, there's no middle ground for them  If they don't win the conference, there more than likely going to finish 3rd or 4th.
Eastern and Western can both finish 11-3 (win both games), 10-4 (split) or 9-5 (lose both games).  Western wins any tiebreaker over Eastern
RIC can finish 10-4 (win both games), 9-5 (split) or 8-6 (lose both games).  Their the only team that can win out and NOT finish with 1 seed (Western would win the 10-4 tiebreaker if the Colonials beat Plymouth).
Dartmouth can finish 7-7 (2 wins), 6-8 (split) or 5-9 (2 losses).  Their pretty much locked in as the 5 as they can't go higher.  The only way they get caught, and subsuquently passed in the pecking order is via 2 losses, and a USM win over Plymouth Tuesday.  That would leave the USM/Dartmouth season series 1-1 and USM would win the tiebreaker due to their win over Western.  Dartmouth wins any tiebreaker over Plymouth state if both those teams finish 5-9 because Dartmouth swepted the season series.  So Dartmouth officially clinches the 5 seed with 1 win OR 1 USM loss.
USM and Plymouth can finish 5-9 (2 wins), 4-10 (split) or 3-11 (2 losses).  Basically whoever wins Tuesday gets the last spot.  Plymouth state won the first meeting, so with a win Tuesday they would go 2 up on USM (with the tiebreaker) with a game to play, impossible to come back from.  Here's where the fun part starts: Plymouth state can lose Tuesday and still get the final spot; they just made it harder on themselves; If they can find a way to win @ Western, they get in with a USM loss @ Dartmouth.  So to recap: if the teams finish at 4-10, with USM's win against Plymouth and Plymouth's win against Western, Plymouth gets the spot.  Plymouth is in the drivers seat for this: they need 1 win OR 1 USM loss.  USM gets in with 2 wins AND at least 1 Plymouth loss OR 1 win AND 2 Plymouth losses.
As stated earlier, Boston is officially eliminated, so no reason to mention them on here.