MBB: Little East

[7express]

Opening round action:

RIC pounds Plymouth 79-48.  Pretty much the same way I saw this.  Right around 47 48 points for the Panthers?  Check!  Right around 34% shooting?  Check (they finished at 36.4%).  Right around 20 turnovers? You got it, as the Panthers finished with 18.  It's too bad the Panthers only took 44 attempts from the floor compared to 52 RIC shot or my field goal % prediction would've been even closer then it was.  After tying the score at 17 midway through the 1st half, RIC finished the half on a 24-7 run, to hold the Panthers at bay as they got no closer then that 17 point halftime deficit.

Keene stays alive for an NCAA bid, beats Dartmouth 75-64.
ECSUalum covered the game well, so I'll let people read his recap on it.  Ryan Martin lead the Owls with 19 on 6-10 shooting.  Lance Greene lead all scorers with 25 and Paul Rose, in his final college game shot a dismal 2-14 and 0-6 from 3.  But somehow he didn't have the worst day for a senior Corsair guard, I'll have Stephanie Houtman's story over on the women's LEC board.

That sets up Friday games as follows:
#4 Keene state @ #1 Eastern Connecticut 5:30
#2 Western Connecticut vs. #3 RIC
No matter which of these 2 teams wins Friday, there WILL NOT be 1 bad matchup for the championship Saturday.  Since the Western women won tonight I'll probably go up to Providence Friday, and Willimantic Saturday (Eastern's only about 20 minutes further from where I live).  I have a lot more faith in the Western men beating the RIC men then I have in the Western women beating the RIC women.

[wcsu91]

Does anyone know the time of the Men's LEC Championship game on Saturday at Eastern? I heard 5:00 but can't find the time anywhere.

[WPI89]

Does anyone know the time of the Men's LEC Championship game on Saturday at Eastern? I heard 5:00 but can't find the time anywhere.

From the LEC Website:  If the formatting gets messed up - yes it says 5:00 pm on Saturday (actually says Friday the 25th - but we know that is a mistake)

2012 Little East Men's Basketball Championship
First Round: Tuesday, Feb. 21, 2012
#6 Plymouth State University    at    #3 Rhode Island College    7 p.m.
#5 University of Massachusetts Dartmouth     at    #4 Keene State College    7:30 p.m.
Semifinal Round: Friday, Feb. 24, 2012
Winner #5/#4    at    #1 Eastern Connecticut State University     5:30 p.m.
Winner #6/#3    vs.    #2 Western Connecticut State University     7:30 p.m.
Championship Round: Friday, Feb. 25, 2012
Semifinal Winner #1    vs.    Semifinal Winner #2    5 p.m.

[warrior]

Regional Rankings are out:
RIC 4, WCSU 5, ECSU 6, KSU 10
The at-large bids all come down to this weekend!
If we win on Friday, we're definitely in!  If we lose maybe Keene gets the last spot.
Western and RIC seem pretty safe, win or lose, but the winner is definitely in!
I'm glad it's all happening in our gym, but I'll definitely sleep better when it's all over! 

[7express]

As I've said before RIC and Western are definitely safe no matter who wins that game Friday.  Eastern is probably in.  Keene needs to be playing on Saturday to even get back in the discussion, and even then they probably have to win the tournament to get in.  Remember, Eastern's higher in the rankings (and will be higher in the final one's that aren't put out), so if Keene wins Friday and loses Saturday, Eastern has to be picked before Keene is.

[WPI89]

7E

You are setting yourself up for a potential storm with your thinking.  The LEC is not a 3 (or 4) team type conference yet.  The loser of Friday's game between RIC/Western ought to be on pins and needles - especially if Keene goes on to win Friday and Saturday.

If WPI or Springfield beat MIT on Sat - that would be bad, if Wesleyan ever beat Middlebury on Friday - that would be bad.  If Magnus ever lost this weekend, that would be bad...........and so on - I can't even comment on the other 50 conferences around - much less the Northeast.

Be careful calling anyone a lock.

[Eye in the Sky]

I agree with WPI. Whoever wins on Friday, West Conn or RIC, they should be feeling good. But whatever team loses, should be nervous as heck. Two teams in from our league is a definite lock. No question. We are hoping and praying for 3, which, like WPI said, is going to hang largely on how to top teams do in their conference. Any of them lose or get upset, and a team who is on the bubble or outside gets that at large, then that knocks off one of our teams.

[7express]

Semifinal predictions:

#2 Western 73 vs. #3 RIC 69 (game at Eastern).
Playing RIC in the tournament always sucks, but as I've said this RIC team doesn't look very good.  The margin of victory in Danbury was only 5 or 7 points, but the Colonials were up by double digits most of the half, and fell by 1 in Providence where we were the victim of some terrible calls at the end of the game there.  However, this team locks you up defensively, and if Ethan Gaye can stay on Brooks like he did the last game (he had 30 points, but only shot 8-26 from the floor) RIC can definitely advance.  This Colonials team is ready to win the championship, and they get by their arch nemisis....finally...to play on Saturday.  Who will they play.

#4 Keene 65 @ #1 Eastern 68.
Keene can win this their squarely back on the bubble, lose and it's season is over.  Both matchups this year were played at the pace Eastern likes to play slow down, defensive game in the 60's.  Those 64 points Keene scored in January in Willimantic were the 3rd fewest they've scored all season, and the fewest they've scored in a win.  If it's played in the 60's, I give Eastern the edge, but if Keene is able to dictate the tempo and run the floor with Eastern, I don't think the Warriors will be able to keep with the Owls.  One thing I'll be doing is rooting for the Warriors however, even though we'd be playing on the road, I don't wanna be playing Keene state again.  Why??  Because it's always extremely difficult to beat a good team 3 times in 1 year, (look at Eastern/Western last season), and especially when that team has as much offensive firepower as the Owls do.  No disrespect to ECSUalum, or Warrior, but I'll gladly take my chances on beating the Warriors in their own gym with Jensen & Redding in the lineup (missed the Januay loss), and with Rob Bentil on the team, then to take my chances beating Keene for a 3rd time this season.  Of course we have to beat RIC first, but in the 1st game, go Warriors!

[7express]

I agree with WPI. Whoever wins on Friday, West Conn or RIC, they should be feeling good. But whatever team loses, should be nervous as heck. Two teams in from our league is a definite lock. No question. We are hoping and praying for 3, which, like WPI said, is going to hang largely on how to top teams do in their conference. Any of them lose or get upset, and a team who is on the bubble or outside gets that at large, then that knocks off one of our teams.

I get what you and WPI are saying, but RIC was 4th/Western was 5th in the rankings.  Kinda difficult to leave the team ranked 4th in the Northeast (probably the strongest region) when their only real bad loss is Dartmouth (finished at .500) and who beat the likes of Keene, WPI, Eastern, Western, Salve, Bridgewater, Becker.  I think this is a bigger game for Western to win with losses to Plymouth & USM (sub .500 teams) on the slate, but really with the wins RIC has this year I don't see how you can keep them out.

[littleeastguy]

Yeah WPI is off on this one RIC is in.  I have looked at all the projections they are a lock either way.  I also de believe in this season the LEC will get 3 bids. Just because they have not in recent years doesn't mean they wont.
There just seems do be a lot of fans, outside the LEC, that don't ever believe how good the conference is.
That being said my picks:
RIC 73 WConn 67
Akinrola and Choice are too battle tasted this time of year.
Eastern 81, Keene 79 in OT
I think Keene could win this but I believe this is closer to a muct win for both teams than the other game.  The loser here very well might be out and that has to drive Eastern to a win.  That team is too good to not make the NCAAs.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I've got 32 teams total that are better or on par with the LEC trio.  22 of those teams are in line for A bids, even if they fail, 8 of the replacements will likely also be from the same group.

So you're looking at, worst case, sitting behind or up against 14 teams - and that's if every single Pool A contender ahead of you loses.

So yeah, two teams is a lock - three is possible and probably better than 50/50 odds.

[ECSUalum]

Semifinal predictions:

#2 Western 73 vs. #3 RIC 69 (game at Eastern).
Playing RIC in the tournament always sucks, but as I've said this RIC team doesn't look very good.  The margin of victory in Danbury was only 5 or 7 points, but the Colonials were up by double digits most of the half, and fell by 1 in Providence where we were the victim of some terrible calls at the end of the game there.  However, this team locks you up defensively, and if Ethan Gaye can stay on Brooks like he did the last game (he had 30 points, but only shot 8-26 from the floor) RIC can definitely advance.  This Colonials team is ready to win the championship, and they get by their arch nemisis....finally...to play on Saturday.  Who will they play.

#4 Keene 65 @ #1 Eastern 68.
Keene can win this their squarely back on the bubble, lose and it's season is over.  Both matchups this year were played at the pace Eastern likes to play slow down, defensive game in the 60's.  Those 64 points Keene scored in January in Willimantic were the 3rd fewest they've scored all season, and the fewest they've scored in a win.  If it's played in the 60's, I give Eastern the edge, but if Keene is able to dictate the tempo and run the floor with Eastern, I don't think the Warriors will be able to keep with the Owls.  One thing I'll be doing is rooting for the Warriors however, even though we'd be playing on the road, I don't wanna be playing Keene state again.  Why??  Because it's always extremely difficult to beat a good team 3 times in 1 year, (look at Eastern/Western last season), and especially when that team has as much offensive firepower as the Owls do.  No disrespect to ECSUalum, or Warrior, but I'll gladly take my chances on beating the Warriors in their own gym with Jensen & Redding in the lineup (missed the Januay loss), and with Rob Bentil on the team, then to take my chances beating Keene for a 3rd time this season.  Of course we have to beat RIC first, but in the 1st game, go Warriors!

7,
As always very keen insight into the LEC Tourney pairings, and I agree with you 100% re your "3rd win theory"  I have seen it many times. However, in this specific case, ECSU still has the "hurt/embarassment" from the WCSU OT victory, (after being up 15 pts with 8 min), in Danbury to feed on so, I would think Eastern will be VERY hungry to get a W if they see Daquan and the Colonials again at Geissler IMHO

Yeah, It would be cool to see an all CT LEC final.  I really hope we get 3 LEC teams in the NCAA's, that would be a HUGE tribute to this years LEC!!!  Then I think the 3 teams will UNLEASH IT!!!  Would not want to be facing an LEC team in the NCAA regionals this year, THAT IS FOR SURE........  I predict one will go deep this year!!

[WPI89]

Expected to get my nose bloodied a bit, stepping into LEC land.........I just hope you guys aren't suffering from myopia.  I would love to see 3 LEC teams in - I live in CT - less than 5 miles from West Conn - have seen Daquan 3 or 4 times this year.  I also think any one of the 3 (or 4) could do some damage with the right match-ups.  Just syaing that banking or promising that any one of the 3 are in with a loss on Friday.......be careful, again especially if Keene wins - throws it all into a frenzy.

Would be fun just to have a round robin tournament right now between:

1's - Amherst, East Conn, MIT
2's - Middlebury, Western, WPI
3's - Wesleyan, RIC, Springfield

I am not sure right now if the LEC would be favored to win any of them?  Throw Magnus, St Joe's and whoever from the GNAC in there as well.

Just trying to point out how many teams and how deep the quality is in the northeast!

[Eye in the Sky]

7,

Yes very true. I should have rephrased what I said. RIC's resume is much more impressive, since they an above 500 record against regionally ranked teams and one of the highest SOS. So if they were to lose, they would have a much better shot than West Conn would if they were to lose.

With atleast 3 of the teams very concerned about at large possibilities, it should make for an unbelieveable night of basketball tomorrow in Willimantic. After going to the RIC vs. Keene State game last year (Might have been the most crazy and exciting college basketball game I have personally been too) I can only hope for both games this year to be of that same quality. Although for fans of all the teams, I may suggest heart pills before the games, because it will be an emotional rollercoaster if the games play out that way. I think I lost years off my life after that game last year!

On a second note, any suggestions on  really good places to grab food in Willimantic or that area. Have been a few times and haven't landed on a place that takes the cake yet and am kind of a food junky. Warrior or ECSU Alum, any suggestions. Much Appreciated!

[7express]

Without further ado, I post 7express's LEC predictions.  Feel free to laugh at me in January, but give me somewhat of a break, the conference is so wide open it was tough to choose between Western, Eastern & RIC at the top, and equally tough to choose between So Maine & Boston for that final spot.  Easiest was Dartmouth at 5, not nearly as good as the top 4 (Keene state included) and clearly better then the bottom 3 (Boston, So Maine & Plymouth):

I see the conference braking down in 2 halves; the great teams which will consist of RIC, West Conn, Eastern & Keene state and the not so great teams which include Dartmouth, Boston, Plymouth state & Southern Maine. I doubt Keene state wins the conference and I doubt Dartmouth finishes last, but any other order between those teams in that group could be decided by a coin flip or drawing straws. Unlike the women's side where you kind of know what to expect (Plymouth state last, RIC/Southern Maine first, the Connecticut schools in the middle), the men's side is totally wide open. Conference records in parenthesis again. With that said:

1) Western Connecticut state (13-3). We have the reigning 2 time player of the year, reigning coach of the year and reigning freshmen of the year returning to school. There was talk DaQuan Brooks was going to look elsewhere to play, but thankfully he returned to school, He is one of the most exciting players to watch in the league, and even though he shoots too much he can just carry the team to victory's. Last season ended poorly (we were up 2 games going into February) before team infighting occured which lead to someone getting kicked off the team. After that, they looked like the just wanted the season to end because they played awful, but thanksfully they recieved one of the last pool C (at-large) bids and managed to win a game in the tournament. This team could be a sweet 16 team if they just run the offense through DaQuan.
1) Eastern Connecticut state (13-3). 4 of their top 5 scorers return from a team that won 21 games overall, 10 in conference, and made it to the finals of the ECAC tournament last season. They also missed getting to the NCAA's by 1 game; in the second game ofthe season series between state rivals Western and Eastern, Eastern held an 8 point lead with just under 8 minutes remaining, and lost the game. Had they held on and won that game, Eastern probably takes Western's spot in the NCAA tournament.
3) Rhode Island College (10-4). Even though they have the most graduating losses among the previous 2 teams, RIC has one of the brightest young coaches in the D-3 ranks in Bob Walsh, which has held RIC be a steady force in the LEC in his tenure in Providence, including an elite 8 trip in 2002, and a couple sweet 16 seasons, including last year, so matter how much scoring they lose, you can never count them out. Besides the coaching edge, RIC has owned Western & Eastern the last few years; RIC has won 11 of the 12 meetings against Western dating back to 2006, including 5 in a row at Western. RIC has won 14 of 15 against Eastern dating back to 04/05 including the championship last year.
4) Keene state (9-5). No seniors on last year's roster which had a difficult campaign to say the least. They did finish 17-11 overall and 8-6 on the season, but they were incredibly inconsistant to put it nicely: followed up a win @ Western Connecticut last January only to give up 106 points a few days later against a so-so Mass-Dartmouth team, managed to sweep Western Connecticut, but got swept by Dartmouth (though managed to beat them in the conference tournament though), and lost at home, to at the time, was a 2-14 WNEC team. Their season ended in heartbreak last year; against RIC in the LEC semifinals they were up 3 with 2.6 seconds left in overtime before the RIC center corralled a missed free throw, dribbled out past the arc, and nailed a 3 at the buzzer to force double OT where Keene went scoreless. This team has the talent to beat anyone in the conference, but they also play inconsistantly enough to lose to anyone in the conference.
5) Mass-Dartmouth (7-7). The best of the rest by far. They lose big time playmaker Brandon Stephens, but they have a good set of role players returning to Southwest Massachusetts. Last year they managed to beat RIC once, and as mentioned swept Keene state in the regular season.
6) Mass-Boston (5-9). Went into a tailspin at the end of last year. won 3 games after New Year's and none in February. Relatively young team, 3/5 of the lineup returns including the top 3 scorers.
7) Southern Maine (4-10). What a difference a year makes, or in this case 10 months! Going into their game last December 4 @ Western Connecticut, I was touting that as a possible championship game preview, and for good reason: both teams had 1 loss, Western Connecticut was in the top 25, and Southern Maine was receiving votes. They lost that game 88-71 and it went downhill from there, as they won only 5 games the remainder of the season. This year with a roster turnover (5 seniors left, including their 2 best players) things should be rocky up there in Maine. Beating RIC last year was the highlight of their post January break; they lost 9 straight and 10 of 11 to end the season after that January 11 win. I wouldn't be surprised to see them pull off a win against a top team early as well, and they get started early; they have road games to Eastern & Western back to back weekends in December.
8) Plymouth state (2-14). There won't be anything good up here. Their going on their 3rd coach in the last 3 years as new hire last year, Damien Stramhorn went onto his alma mater Colby, and really I can't blame him. 5 of their top 6 scorers are gone, and the Panthers only bring back 22.8 ppg from last year. They also have to break in an entire new starting 5 as the starting 5 last year consisted of 5 seniors. if I was Stramhorn I probably would have done the same thing if I was in his shoes.

Player of the year:
DaQuan Brooks-Western Connecticut

All conference team:
DaQuan Brooks-Western Connecticut
Nick Nedwick-Eastern Connecticut
Paul Rose-UMass-Dartmouth
Mason Choice-RIC
Derek D'amours-Keene state

Playoffs:
Western beats Eastern in the finals, Eastern & RIC join Western in the NCAA's, Keene & Dartmouth get an ECAC bid.

Always good bringing back these predictions.  Wasn't that far off: Western was only 1 game off, Keene was 1.  Underestimated Plymouth, overestimated Boston, everything else was either on the nose or off 1 game.  Rose for all conference team was probably my worst selection, didn't realise D'Amours was gonna get thrown off, Choice probably doesn't make it, but may make a second team if their is one.  Nedwick & Brooks probably get on, and Brooks is good candidate as always for POY.