MBB: Little East

[7express]

Saturday predictions:

Western 69 @ Dartmouth 76.
The Corsairs have lost 4 straight games to the Colonials at home, and with an 80-66 win @ Western in January snapped an 8 game losing streak to the Colonials dating back to the 2008-09 season when the Corsairs went 3-0 vs. Western en route to finishing that season 27-4.  Dartmouth & Western continue to be the conferences 2 most surprising teams heading into February, picked 5th & 7th respectively.  However, Dartmouth looks to be the second best team in the conference behind Eastern, and Western is starting to slide back into the middle of the pack.  Probably close for 30 or 35 minutes, but Dartmouth gets the home win and the season sweep.
Plymouth 65 @ Eastern 80.
Normally I'd say this would be an easy win, but how much did road victories @ RIC and @ Western take out of the Warriors??  May be close for the first, but Eastern turns it on in the second half.  Luckily for Eastern, this is at home, because if it was in New Hampshire, this would be my upset special of the year.
RIC 83 @ Boston 51.
RIC has won 11 straight in this lopsided series, and in the last 7 games the Beacons have lost by an average of 26 points with the "closest" defeat coming by 14 last year.
USM 78 @ Keene 75.
Don't look now, but if USM can win this and both Western (@ Dartmouth) and Plymouth (@ Eastern lose) they'll be tied with Keene only a game behind Western & Plymouth.  As I said earlier in the week, USM had a brutal first half schedule, but their second half schedule eases up.  Their done with Western, and get RIC & Eastern in Maine, and could make a run.  Making a run starts with winning this game, and I say they get it.

[7express]

On the LEC tournament front:

Boston is officially eliminated from winning the conference and hosting.  USM has a tragic number of 1: 1 USM loss OR 1 Eastern win would eliminate the Huskies from winning the conference and hosting the tournament.   IF Eastern wins and Western & Keene lose, Western, Plymouth & Keene would all be left with a tragic number of 1.

[7express]

halftime scores:

RIC leads 44-26.  Tom DeCiantis has 9 to lead RIC and Carl Joseph leads all scorers with 10.
Keene up 47-38.  Sean Caddigan leads USM with a game high 11.  Nate Howard almost finished the first half with a double-double; 10 points & 9 rebounds in only 11 minutes.
Dartmouth leads Western 45-39.  Jerry Washington with 9 to lead the Colonials.  Abi Aknni is absolutely killing it for the Corsairs: 18 points on 6-8 shooting (4-6 from 3).
Eastern leads 32-21.  Uche Nwokeji with 8 for Plymouth.  Eastern is lead by Trachone Preston with 11 and Mike Garrow with 12.

[AllStar]

Keene State pounds Southern Maine 95-59.

[7express]

Sat results:

Keene pounds USM 95-59.  Well, so much for USM making a run, this loss about puts an end to that.  Sean Caddigan finished with 11 points for USM (0 in the second half), while Keene was lead by Nate Howards 17 points and 11 rebounds.  Jaquel Edwards added 15 points and 17 rebounds, and Tom Doyle chipped in 16 points and 9 rebounds.   The Owls outrebounded the Huskies 66-42 and had 11 blocks.
Western comes back to defeat Dartmouth 93-85.  A great road win against a very good team!  Jerry Washington lead the Colonials with 25 points, Ronnie Underwood had 18.  Joe Groski was a monster on the boards with 18 rebounds and put in 12 points.  Abi Akanni had 18 first half points, but only put in 4 in the second to finish with 22 on the day, and Ryan Walsh and Jake Laga each added 17 points & 15 points respectively. 
Eastern survives Plymouth 59-56.  Eastern was actually trailing with 90 seconds to play, but 2 Mike Garrow baskets sandwiched around a Plymouth turnover gave them a bit of breathing room.  Alex Burt misfired on a 3 pointer at the buzzer.  Uche Nwokeji and Petey Skevas each had 14 for the Panthers, while the Warriors were lead by Garrow's 25 points (including those 2 baskets in the final 67 seconds), and Trachone Preston added 13.  Not a lot of balanced scoring as nobody else finished with more than 8.  Teams combined to shoot 1-13 from 3 with Eastern hitting the games lone 3 pointer.
RIC hangs onto defeat Boston 70-65.  Carl Joseph had a game high 17 for the Beacons and Gregory Young had 14.  For the Anchormen, Jacob Page lead them with 12 and Tom DeCiantis finished with 11.  RIC with 21 turnovers which let the Beacons hang around, Walsh has gotta be pulling his hair out in the locker room.

44-35 LEC; 78-33 me.

Standings:
1) Eastern 9-0 (15-4)
2) 7-2 (13-7)
3) Western 5-4 (12-6)
3) Dartmouth 5-4 (12-7)
5) Plymouth 4-5 (10-9)
5) Keene 4-5 (7-11)
7) USM 2-7 (6-13)
8) Boston 0-9 (5-14)
Note: I believe Western gets the edge over Dartmouth (1-1 season series) because they have a better win percentage over Plymouth & Keene (100%) than Dartmouth does (66%).  Likewise, Plymouth is 1-0 vs. Keene, so they get the edge in that tiebreaker.

Schedule:
No LEC games Tuesday, so OOC games all week, with LEC action resuming in full force Saturday:

Tuesday, February 4:
Plymouth @ Bowdoin 7 PM
Dartmouth @ Tufts 7 PM
Eastern @ Wesleyan 7 PM
Middlebury @ Keene 7:30 PM
Colby @ USM 7:30 PM

Thursday, February 6:
Fitchburg @ Boston 7 PM
Westfield @ Western 7 PM

Saturday, February 8:
Plymouth @ Western 3 PM
Keene @ RIC 3 PM
Eastern @ Boston 3 PM
USM @ Dartmouth 3 PM

[ECSUalum]

Brian Salzillo in street clothes, (I think its an ankle), and ECSU dodged a bullet against a determined Plymouth Panther team with a 59-56 win.
Not sure on the stats as the box is not out but Eastern was led by Garro with +/-23 and Preston with +/-15pts.   Lindo led in rebounds again but was in foul trouble early so had less minutes played.  Garro comes up big in the end with some key buckets.
The Warriors seemed to be in control the first half, leading by as much as 14, but looks lethargic the second with some key misses and T/Os to let Plymouth back into the game with 4 minutes left.  Hopefully Salzillo recovers soon as they should have won this by 20

[7express]

Brian Salzillo in street clothes, (I think its an ankle), and ECSU dodged a bullet against a determined Plymouth Panther team with a 59-56 win.
Not sure on the stats as the box is not out but Eastern was led by Garro with +/-23 and Preston with +/-15pts.   Lindo led in rebounds again but was in foul trouble early so had less minutes played.  Garro comes up big in the end with some key buckets.
The Warriors seemed to be in control the first half, leading by as much as 14, but looks lethargic the second with some key misses and T/Os to let Plymouth back into the game with 4 minutes left.  Hopefully Salzillo recovers soon as they should have won this by 20

I didn't even notice Salzillo not in the boxscore.  Probably why there was a lack of scoring.

[warriorcat]

At full strength, Eastern has created space between itself and the rest of the conferenve but if it loses any of its big three (Salzillo, Garrow, or Preston) they come back to the pack right away.  The interesting thing about these three is that there is very little similarity or overlap in their games.  Coach Geitner has developed a system that allows each of them to take over a game at any point in time. The only weakness is the inside game.  Garrow can slash and elevate but he is barely 6'4" and length can neutralize him.

[ECSUalum]

from write-up on todays game with Plymouth St on gowarriorathletics.com :
"Salzillo, the conference's leading scorer and second-ranked three-point shooter in Division III, missed his first game of the year due to illness".

I actually saw him(LEC TVvideo), at the game today in street clothes, so hopefully he will be back for next LEConference match vs UMB in Willi..
I thought it might have been his ankle as he was hobbling a bit on it over the last couple of games.

[7express]

Tuesday predictions:

Plymouth 57 @ Bowdoin 72.
Bowdoin is a very good team that has only lost 2 games all season: by 5 @ Williams, and at home to Amherst by 3 when Amherst connected on 18 3 pointers.  Luckily for the Polar Bears, but unluckily for the Panthers, the Polar Bears have 2 things going for them: 1) The Panthers don't shoot the 3 ball very often.  They are second in the conference in 3 point FG percentage (.355%), but have only attempted 211 which is dead last in fewest attempts, and you need a microscope to see the next fewest attempted there's that big of a gap (Boston at 278) and second of all, the Panthers have no one to match the Polar Bears excellent big man John Swords.  The spread has this at 16 for the Polar Bears, but I think the Panthers can beat the spread.  Bowdoin was beat up this past weekend, in addition to the tough Amherst loss, the night before they won a grind-it-out defensive battle with Trinity, so they may come out flat.
Dartmouth 67 @ Tufts 73.
Tufts had a 3 game winning streak which brought them above .500 which ended to a loss to Wesleyan Saturday afternoon.  Like Bowdoin/Plymouth above, the Corsairs don't have anyone to match up with the Jumbos big Hunter Sabety, who exploded for 21 points & 7 blocks against the Beacons a team that has decent size.  The Jumbos are a 5 point favorite, and I agree.
Eastern 73 @ Wesleyan 69.
Eastern has lost 4 straight time to the Cardinals, the last win coming exactly 5 years to the day: February 4, 2009.  Last year, the Warriors look dreadful, losing by 11 and falling behind by 20 in the first half.  The Cardinals lost a bunch of starters to graduation, and was pegged to be one of the worst teams in the NESCAC this year, but is actually holding it's own this year with a 3-3 record, and a 2 point loss to Middlebury.  However, they have yet to play Williams & Amherst the NESCAC games that count, however.  They play each school twice a season as part of the Little 3 rivalry, and each conference matchup is in the final 2 weeks of the NESCAC season.  Eastern is a large 9.5 point favorite, and I say the Cardinals easily beat the spread.  I think they'll fall short, but should be close all game.
Middlebury 79 @ Keene State 83.
This was one of the better games in the LEC 2 seasons ago when the Panthers invaded Spaulding gymnasium.  The Panthers came into that matchup undefeated ranked #1 in the nation, and the Owls were in the middle of a 9 or 10 game winning streak.  The Owls won that matchup (only 1 of 4 Mid losses that season), but were unable to sustain that advantage in February as they lost a couple close games at the end and just missed out on the NCAAs.  Middlebury comes into this matchup reeling and on short rest.  After blowing a 16 point halftime lead at home to US-7 rival Williams, they went on the road to Hamilton Sunday and lost by 2 on a last second jumper.  The oddsmakers have the Panthers as an 7.5 point favorite.  Not only do I say the Owls beat it easily, they win the game.
Colby 75 @ USM 69.
The White Mules come in winners of 3 straight, including a victory over Amherst.  The Huskies are going the opposite direction, losers of 11 of their last 13 games including a 36 point beatdown at the hands of Keene Saturday afternoon.  The White Mules are an 8 point favorite.  I think this will be close, but Colby wins, but fails to cover only winning by 6.

[amh63]

7Express.....nice post of the NESCAC vs LEC games tonight.  NESCAC1 took a crack at the matchups but did not go into spreads and all.  Interesting prediction on the Middlebury and Keene game.  No comment since I have no knowledge of Keene this year.  Do want to point out that Amherst's win at Bowdoin was on senior night for the Polar Bears.  The seniors shined for their their parents in the crowd.  Shot over 50% from the field and one senior was hitting it from outside....matching Green of Amherst.  They did out rebound Amherst badly....having a true 7 footer in Swords helps in many ways wrt to rebounds....takes a lot of space around the basket.

ECSU...rooting for the conference on my board for selfish reasons.  Still, feel that your Warriors can win handily if your players play to their capabilities in a road game.  The Cardinals are an up and down team.  Amherst beat them in Middletown in the Little 3 ...non conference .....game.  We will see them again in LeFrak on Saturday.  Good Luck.
Posted here to be up front with you.   Watch the roads tonight if you are traveling.

[ECSUalum]

amh63,

Thanks for your thoughts.  Will watch the Warriors vs the Cardinals on my computer tonight. LAst year I went to Wesleyan to watch.  Great facility and spoke with some nice Wesleyan alums.   BTW Wesleyan President Michael Roth gave the 2011/12 ECSU Commencement address, and it was one of the best I ever heard!!  Great guy, and about 6'-4 or 5" tall

[warriorcat]

Wesleyan  68    Eastern Ct  62

A back and forth game.  Eastern led by Mike Garrow with 26 pts and Trachone Preston 22.  Brian Salzillo not playing again tonight although I think I saw him sitting on the end of the bench in street clothes.  Hugh Lindo was dressed but he did not play.  I hope that Brian can get back soon.  Eastern needs his outside shooting.  They were 6-23  26% on 3PFG

[7express]

Is Eastern ever going to beat Wesleyan??

[warriorcat]

It seems that every year when they play this game a key player is out.  Two years ago Nick Nedwick was hurt.  Last year, this was the game where Joe Ives tore his ACL. And this year Brian Salzillo is out.  No excuses.  Wesleyan is a solid team and they were a deserving winner tonight.