MBB: Little East

[7express]

Sat predictions:

Dartmouth @ Eastern.
Eastern has basically already won the title, but they can clinch no worse than a share of the title and home court throughout the LEC tournament with a win.  Dartmouth has been a surprise team, but has started to fade down the stretch run.  Oddsmakers have listed the Warriors as a 10 point favorite at home.  Since there's no injury report on Salzillo or Yarborough, I'll take the points and hope Dartmouth can keep it close.  Eastern 78-70

RIC @ USM.
Eastern can also clinch at least a share of the regular season title and home court throughout with an Anchormen loss in Maine.  In 6 of the last 7 seasons, USM has beaten at least one of: Western, RIC, or Eastern at home.  They lost to Western in December, and have Eastern next weekend up in Maine.  The Anchormen are a 9.5 point favorite which I think is way to much.  USM might actually win straight up, I wouldn't be surprised.  RIC 78-74

Keene @ Western.
Western still has a stranglehold on that final home spot with the tiebreaker in their pocket, but would be wise to win this game with Eastern on tap Tuesday evening.  Keene has their final 2 at home against Plymouth & Dartmouth, and while it is extremely unlikely to happen, Keene is still in the running to finish as high as 3rd.  A win by Western, the highest Keene could finish would be 5th place.   The Colonials are favored by 6.5, I'll take the points.  Western can never seem to close out games, and the Owls have the Colonials number.  Western 75-70.

Boston @ Plymouth.
The Panthers are a game behind the Colonials in the standings for the last home spot and lose the head-to-head tiebreaker, so in actuality they are really 2 back with 3 to play.  This is the Panthers final home game of the season as the Panthers go on the road for their last 2 games of the season (@ Keene & @ RIC).  A Beacons win & a Western win would solidify the 4 teams hosting first round games on the 25th and those 4 teams would be: Eastern, RIC, Dartmouth & Western with a final order still to be determined.  The Panthers are a 10 point favorite, and I say they win big.  Plymouth 67-51.

[ECSUalum]

Salzillo played 6 min today, looked a little rusty, 0-3 on his 3 pointers, but is back . Yarborough coming off a concussion but looks to return soon.
Mike Garrow with 32 points, (UMD had no answer for MG today!!!), Preston with 14; Lumene with 15; and Hugh Lindo with 18 rebounds , (another outstanding game, Hugh playing like an upper classmen!!!!), in a 79-73 win to clinch the LEC home advantage and regular season.
Handy 14 pts; Laga, 13; Bouchard, 12; and Akanni 12 pts. 
ECSU had 19 TOs!
ECSU has Western at home on Tues and USM in Portland next Sat which finishes the regular season, hopefully back to full strength!

[7express]

Even though they've had unofficially had the conference won when they finished the sweep of RIC in late January, they officially clinched the #1 seed for the conference tournament, and no worse than at least a share of the regular season title.  Congrats to the Warriors!

[warriorcat]

Congratulations to Eastern Connecticut on clinching at least a share of the regular season title and the number one seed in the tournament.  Their 79-73 win over Dartmouth today was a grind it out affair.  Dartmouth never gave up and hung in for most of the game. They actually had a one point lead at the half.  No Brandon Yarborough today but Brian Salzillo did play 5 minutes in the first half.  He looked out of rhythm after missing the last four games with a possible case of mono. He was 0-3 (all three pointers) from the field and ended his 52 game streak with at least one 3 pointer.  Mike Garrow was the player of the game.  31 points on 11-16 from the field and 8-11 from the line and 8 rebounds.  Hugh Lindo pulled down 18 rebounds.  How does he match up with other freshman for Freshman of the Year?  Last year's FOY  Trachone Preston had a rare off game from the field.  6-18 (0-7 on threes) 14 points.  He did have a good floor game, however, 7 assists with no turnovers. 

While they need one more win to clinch the outright title and Western and USM will not roll over, they have a week to get Salzillo and Yarborough ready for the Conference tournament and, hopefully, beyond.

[7express]

RIC still has to go to Dartmouth, so the Warriors could still clinch with a RIC loss as well.

[7express]

Sat results:
Eastern over Dartmouth 79-73 to clinch the top seed in the LEC tournament.  Will be a tough out in Willimantic.  Steven Handy had 14 points off the bench to lead Dartmouth; Mike Garrow lead all scorers with 31.  Hugh Lindo with only 6 points but he grabbed 18 rebounds for the Warriors.
RIC over USM 60-48.  Sean Caddigan with 12 off the bench to lead USM; Tom DeCiantis lead all scorers with 20.
Western wins a track meet over Keene 98-85.  4 of the 5 Owls scored in double figures lead by Nick Gagliolo's 17, Nate Howard had 16 points & 9 rebounds, and Jaquel Edwards had 14 points & 14 rebounds.  4 Colonials scored in double figures as well, and they were paced by Kendall Marquez (31 points-28 in the second half) & Ronnie Underwood (26 points- 18 in the second half) who shot 20-27 combined from the floor.  Western shot almost 70% in the second half (69.7%) in outscoring the Owls 62-48 in the second half to erase a 1 point halftime deficit. 
Plymouth over Boston 71-70.  Plymouth lead for all of about 2 minutes of the game: Plymouth scored the first basket of the game and held a 2-0 lead for about 45 seconds.  After the Beacons got 2 free throws from Gregory Young, the Panthers got a basket from Morgan to put them back up 2 which lasted for about 55 seconds until the Beacons tied it on a basket.  After the Beacons took the lead back 2 possessions later, they held that lead until there were only 30 seconds remaining in the game when Curtis Arsenault hit a 3 to give the Panthers the 1 point win.  So, if your counting, the Panthers lead for less than 2 minutes total this entire game.  Carl Joseph & Gregory Young lead the way for the Beacons with 19 & 17 respectively while Petey Skevas lead the Panthers with 15.

46-40 LEC; 95-35 me

Standings:
1) Eastern 12-0 (18-5)
2) RIC 10-2 (16-7)
3) Western 7-5 (15-7)
3) Dartmouth 7-5 (14-9)
5) Plymouth 12-11 (6-6)
6) Keene 4-8 (7-15)
7) USM 2-10 (6-17)
8) Boston 0-12 (6-17)

Schedule:
Tuesday, February 18:
Western @ Eastern 7:30
RIC @ Dartmouth 7:30
Plymouth @ Keene 7:30
USM @ Boston 7:30

Thursday, February 20:
Western @ Western New England 7 (why are they playing this game??)

Saturday, February 22:
Boston @ Western 3
Eastern @ USM 3
Plymouth @ RIC 3
Dartmouth @ Keene 3

[7express]

Scenerio's for the final 2 games.  Unlike the women's field which is a complete mess at the top, you could probably fill out the 8 seeded teams in pen and only have to cross off 2 or 3.  The ONLY real intrigue in that is between Dartmouth, Western & Plymouth for the 3-5 spots as their could be a 3 way tie at either 8-6 or 7-7, but really Western has a stranglehold as they currently hold the tiebreakers over both teams, and would win that 8-6 or 7-7 tiebreaker due to superior record (Western would be 3-1 against those 2 wile Plymouth would only be 1-3 and Dartmouth would be 2-2), so even that's not really interesting.

Eastern has finished first.  RIC can tie them, but due to the series sweep, Eastern wins the tiebreaker
RIC is locked in at #2.  Nobody can catch RIC, and as stated even though RIC can tie Eastern, Eastern wins the tiebreaker.
#3-#5 will be Plymouth, Western, Dartmouth in some order.  Yes, Plymouth can still finish 6th, but they can also finish 3rd, I'll explain the confusing scenario shortly.  Only Plymouth out of this group can be caught, and none of the 3 can catch teams in front of them.
#6 will be either Keene or Plymouth
#7 will be either Keene or USM
#8 will be either USM or Boston

How they get there: Plymouth finishes 3rd with: 2 wins, 2 Western losses AND no worse than a 1-1 record for Dartmouth, BUT if Dartmouth loses, it MUST be to RIC.  Confused??
Let's break this down and see why they need RIC to defeat Dartmouth, that would leave Dartmouth with an 0-2 record vs. RIC.  Also a 1-1 finish with the win vs. RIC, Plymouth could only tie them at 8-6, and in this scenario each would be 0-2 vs. Eastern, 1-1 vs. RIC, 1-1 vs. each other, but Dartmouth gets the nod to the 1-1 record vs. Western while Plymouth finished 0-2.  Anything less than 2 wins would leave Plymouth in that 7 win pile with Dartmouth & Western, who they would lose out to both too.
Western & Dartmouth clinch no worse than 4th with: 1 win OR 1 Plymouth loss.  If both RIC and Eastern have opposite results from the other (i.e Eastern wins & RIC loses, or Eastern loses & RIC wins) the 3rd & 4 seeds would be set depending on which team lost.
Only way Western finishes 5th is in that Plymouth scenario above: 2 losses PLUS 2 wins by the Panthers, AND Dartmouth loss to RIC AND Dartmouth win vs. Keene.  Plymouth would be 3rd (as noted would win the 8-6 tiebreaker vs. Dartmouth).
Keene finishes 5th with 2 wins AND 2 Plymouth losses.  Keene would win a 6-8 tiebreaker based on their win over Western earlier in the season.
USM will finish 6th with 2 wins AND 2 Keene losses.  USM would win a 4-10 tiebreaker because they'd have a last-day victory over Eastern in this scenario. 
Boston will avoid the cellar and finish 7th with 2 wins AND 2 USM losses.  Like above, they'd win a 2-12 tiebreaker based on their win over Western on the final day while the Huskies would be winless against them.

[7express]

Tuesday predictions:

Western @ Eastern.
Throw the records out the window in this Constitution state rivalry game.  The Warriors have won 6 of the last 7 against the Colonials dating back to the semifinals of the 2011 tournament, and that stretch includes a season sweep last season, and 2 wins the tournament (2011 semifinals, 2013 quarterfinals).  Their on pace to meet up again either in the semi's or finals of this years LEC tournament as well.  Eastern is putting their perfect LEC record on the line, and still shooting for a perfect conference record (anyone know the last time that happened??), and still has yet to clinch the outright title.  With a win, Eastern would tie the 2012-13 & 2008-09 RIC Anchormen for the best conference marks as each of those teams finished LEC play 13-1.  However, the standings only go back to the 06-07 season and can't find anything from further back.  Eastern has been in close games lately, so not only are they due for a loss, their due for a loss vs. the Colonials as well.  It'd be nice to have a 14-0 LEC mark, and 2 straight season sweeps of Western, but coach Geitner has better things on his mind like gearing up for the LEC tourney which starts in a week.  I don't think they'd get in now, but if they won these next 2 and then lost to either RIC/Dartmouth/Western in the LEC tournament they'd be pretty tough to live out, imo.  As of today, Staten Island (15-0 in the CUNY), St. Norbert (16-0 in the Midwest), Purchase (15-0 in the Skyline), Washington University (11-0 in the UAA) and Eastern (12-0 in the LEC) are the lone teams still unbeaten in conference play.  I've always said if a team is able to finish conference play unbeaten, they should be looked at very hard for an at-large selection should that team fail to win it's tournament because it is much MUCH more difficult to run through a 14, 16 or 18 game slate undefeated than it is to win a couple of games on back-to-back days in February & March.  Not saying you have to put them in, but the committee shouldn't just totally dismiss them.  For proof that's difficult look at Stevens Point #1 in the country, Amherst & Williams (3 losses each), Cabrini (1 loss), Albertus Magnus (2 losses, 1 division 3 loss), Brockport (2 losses).  What do all of those teams have in common (besides being in the top 15)??  They all have suffered a loss to a conference foe.  Incredibly difficult to pull off, as the LEC has proven since it's been at least 8 years and maybe even longer (never??) since it's happened in the LEC.  The oddsmakers have the Warriors as a 12.5 point favorite in their final regular season LEC game at Geissler Gymnasium.  Not only does Eastern not cover, they lose the game.  Much more at stake here for Western.  Give me the 3 seed and finally a chance to knock out Bob Walsh's incredibly overrated RIC team in the semifinals.  Really don't want the 4 and a matchup with Eastern.  Western 75-70

RIC @ Dartmouth.
Having watched Dartmouth in person for a half, RIC in person for 2 games, and a whole bunch of their games on the computer I still believe Dartmouth is the better team between the 2 of them.  RIC lost there 2 seasons ago with Akinrola, Choice, Carter & Gaye (a MUCH more better team) and last year when Dartmouth was horrible they went 3-0, but none of the 3 wins were really that impressive: they won by 6 @ Dartmouth, won the regular season matchup in Providence by 11, but were only up 5 with 6:45 to play, and won the 1/8 quarterfinal game in Providence by 4 measly points, but once again the Corsairs were within 5 with more than a 1/3 of the game still to play (7:45).  Plymouth was able to beat them by 29 @ Dartmouth!!  and RIC wins 3 games by a total of 21 points??  Unimpressed.  RIC won the first meeting by 6 in unimpressive fashion in Providence which saw the score tied at halftime.  The oddsmakers aren't very impressed with RIC either as they have this game as a pick 'em; a game which the Corsairs win.  Dartmouth 75-68.

Plymouth @ Keene
If either one of those scenerio's plays out above Plymouth would clinch 5th with a win.  As I said the other day, Keene would win a tiebreaker over Plymouth if both teams finished 6-8.  The Owls are a 1 point favorite at home in this Granite state rivalry game, and even if the game is really close, impossible to win a game by less than 1 point, so I'll take the points.  Keene 74-72.

USM @ Boston
Who cares??  Unlike the Huskies who seemed to have thrown in the towel once January rolled around, at least the Beacons have been competitive: 1 point loss at Plymouth when they lead for over 38 minutes, close losses to RIC & Western.  USM will still get the 7 seed and the 20 point loss @ RIC that comes with it because Boston isn't winning @ Western, but at least they'll make it interesting for the next couple days.  The Beacons are a 1.5 point favorite I'll take them and the points.  Beacons 83-74

[AllStar]

7:

You might say RIC is living off their recent reputation.

[7express]

Eastern/Western game postponed.  Since it will be played tomorrow, that officially takes Western New England off the schedule for Western this year.  Made no sense to play them with 2 days left in the season anyways.
Other 3 are still on.  No clue why the Eastern/Western game was deep sixed. 

[7express]

Dartmouth leads RIC 39-32.  RIC with 12 turnovers.  Jake Laga leads all scorers with 8 points
USM leads Boston 37-22.  Happy trails to an LEC win for the Beacons this year!
Keene leads Plymouth 33-18 with 6:43 left in the first.  This didn't start until 8 PM for some reason, even though the women's game was over by 7:15.  Allstar, any reason why the delay at Spaulding this evening??
Plymouth leads 36-32 at half.  Jack Preston with 7 to lead Plymouth; Nate Howard with 11 to lead Keene that includes a ferocious dunk.

[pjunito]

7,

Ummm... Did Plymouth end the first half on a 18-1 run?

[7express]

7,

Ummm... Did Plymouth end the first half on a 18-1 run?

No idea.  I was going back and forth.  When I last looked in was like halfway through and Keene was up 4.  Btw, how'd Albertus do tonight??

[7express]

Dartmouth wins 85-73 to clinch a home quarterfinal game and to officially eliminate that crazy scenario for the Panthers to finish 3rd.  With an Eastern win vs. Western tomorrow, Dartmouth would be locked in at the 3 since they would win the tiebreaker vs. Western.
USM wins 65-63 on a James Odneal basket with 2 seconds left to officially lock the Beacons in at #8, so we have 1 matchup next Tuesday night that will be Boston @ Eastern.
Keene down 11 to Plymouth with still more than 5 minutes left.  A Keene comeback would solidify USM at #7 and give us our second quarter matchup.  A Plymouth win wouldn't officially lock Plymouth at 5, but there's about a 99.99999999999999% chance Plymouth would stay there at the conclusion of Saturday's action.
Plymouth wins by 9 I think.  Can't finish lower than 5th.  6th will come down to either Keene (a win vs. Dartmouth OR USM loss vs. eastern), or USM (win vs. Eastern, AND Keene loss vs. Dartmouth).  USM would win a 4-10 tiebreaker because they'd have a win over Eastern.
Plymouth-Western-Dartmouth will make up 3-5 in some order, and only Dartmouth is the only one that guaranteed itself a home game, Plymouth can only finish as high as 4th and Western is the only one of the 3 that can end up in either 3rd, 4th or 5th.  I'll have full scenariao's on the recap coming a little later.

[pjunito]

7,

Ummm... Did Plymouth end the first half on a 18-1 run?

No idea.  I was going back and forth.  When I last looked in was like halfway through and Keene was up 4.  Btw, how'd Albertus do tonight??

Oh ok.. lol. sometimes those live stats are  a little off... Albertus won 96-81. Played their best game all season, peaking at the right moment.