MBB: Little East

[7express]

Dartmouth over RIC 85-73.  Chris Burton with 18 to lead the way for RIC, while Jake Laga had a game high 25 for the Corsairs and Wale Abraham added 19.  This win did 2 things: The most important thing is it guaranteed the Corsairs no worse than the 4th seed, and less important and probably overlooked, is that Eastern did nothing today, and they officially clinched the regular season title outright, even if they lose their final 2.  Congrats to the Warriors on a great season!
Plymouth sweeps the season series from Keene; wins 59-50.  Both Nate Howard (13 points, 10 rebounds) and Jaquel Edwards (11 points, 13 rebounds) added double doubles for the Owls.  Jack Preston & Logan Kesty each had 15 for game highs for the Panthers.
USM over Boston 65-63.  Conor Sullivan lead the Huskies with 19 points while Tyler Penney added 13 points & 10 rebounds.  Carl Joseph lead the Beacons with 21 points & 13 rebounds.  The Huskies actually lead by 21 in this game, but found themselves down late in the second half.  They got a layup from James Odneal with 2.5 seconds left to get the win.  The loss by the Beacons officially locks them in at #8; they'll be traveling to Eastern Connecticut next Tuesday night.

96-37 for me.  LEC finishes 46-40 in non conference action since the WNEU/Western game isn't getting made up, and it doesn't look like the Keene/MCLA game is being made up either.

Wednesday schedule:
Western @ Eastern 7:30 PM.

Standings:
1) Eastern 12-0 (18-5)
2) RIC 10-3 (16-8)
3) Dartmouth 8-5 (15-9)
4) Western 7-5 (15-7)
5) Plymouth 7-6 (13-11)
6) Keene 4-9 (7-16)
7) USM 3-10 (7-17)
8) Boston 6-18 (0-13)

Tournament picture:
Eastern has clinched first, RIC has clinched second and tonight Boston clinched 8th.  Also tonight we found out: Dartmouth gets a home game as they can't finish lower than 4th; and Plymouth can't finish any lower than 5th.  USM-Keene will be 6/7 in some order, and Western-Plymouth-Dartmouth will be 3-5 in some order.  Of those 3 Dartmouth is the only one that has guaranteed itself a home game, and Western is the only one that can still finish in any of those 3 spots since the highest Plymouth can get is 4th.
Keene clinches the 6 seed and relegates USM to the 7th with: A win OR USM loss.  USM clinches the 6th and relegates Keene to 7th with: A win (vs. eastern) AND a Keene loss (vs. Dartmouth).
An Eastern win vs. Western tomorrow would officially lock Dartmouth in at the 3 seed and leave Plymouth & Western battling for that final spot.
Dartmouth finishes 3rd with: a loss AND Western loss to Eastern OR 1 Western loss OR 1 win.
Western finishes 3rd with: 2 wins OR a win @ Eastern AND a Dartmouth loss at Keene.*
Western clinches a home quarterfinal game with: 1 WIN OR 1 Plymouth loss
Plymouth finishes 4th with: 2 Western losses AND a win @ RIC
*= as of now Dartmouth has the tiebreaker over Western due to their win tonight vs. RIC.  So, if they both finished 1-1 and finished tied at 8-6, Dartmouth would win the tiebreaker.  HOWEVER, Western would the tiebreaker back with a win vs. Eastern.  The reason??  Both are 1-1 vs. each other, and next step is to compare records with each team starting at the top.  A Western loss would leave Western both 0-2 vs. Eastern (#1) and RIC (#2) while even though Dartmouth is 0-2 vs. Eastern as well, they recorded a win over RIC.  That's why the race for 3rd is over if the Warriors win.  Even though both could still theoretically tie at 8-6, the Corsairs have the win over the Anchormen in their back pocket which the Colonials don't have.

Wed prediction:
Western @ Eastern.
Keeping my result the same: Western 75-70.  Only thing Eastern's playing for is the undefeated conference mark (last achieved in 92-93 according to the Dartmouth broadcast tonight) since the RIC loss took care of the regular season title for them, so that's not even on the table for them anymore.

[AllStar]

Earlier this month I thought Keene was taking steps forward as a young team in terms of competing better and with decent teams.  I was wrong.  The last few games have clearly been steps back, tonight in particular.  Really not a good game to watch and overall a poor performance that left me with little optimism.  I'm of the opinion that Plymouth being at 7-6 in the league is somewhat of an indictment on how down this league is this year.

[7express]

Earlier this month I thought Keene was taking steps forward as a young team in terms of competing better and with decent teams.  I was wrong.  The last few games have clearly been steps back, tonight in particular.  Really not a good game to watch and overall a poor performance that left me with little optimism.  I'm of the opinion that Plymouth being at 7-6 in the league is somewhat of an indictment on how down this league is this year.

The LEC has definitely seen better years, that's for sure!
Western & Dartmouth rebounded from last years debacle, but the conference isn't any better.  Hope Baptiste can go find the next Lance Greene & Brandon Stephens, Campbell goes out and finds even half a version of DaQuan Brooks, Geitner gets another Kohn/Robitaile/Nedwick, Colbert goes and finds a D'Amours that actually stays out of trouble and on the court, Walsh goes out and get's a Tahrike Carter/Jake Grimes/Akinrola/Choice.  Make the league competitive and get multiple teams in the NCAA's!
Plymouth being 7-6 this year is an indictment of how much the league sucks this year; USM & Boston finishing 4th & 5th last season was an indictment on how much the league sucked last year.

[7express]

Looks like Eastern is now up to 4th in the RR's:
NORTHEAST     
     
Rank School In-Region Record Overall Record 
1 Amherst 21-2 21-3 
2 Williams 20-3 21-3 
3 Babson 18-5 18-5 
4 Eastern Connecticut State 18-5 18-5 
5 WPI 20-3 20-3 
6 Bowdoin 19-4 19-4 
7 Springfield 15-6 16-6 
8 Albertus Magnus 21-1 21-2 
9 Rhode Island College 16-7 16-7 
10 Nichols 18-5 18-5 
11 Middlebury 15-8 16-8

[amh63]

ECSU.......Your Warriors are looking good.!  Keep winning and the stress levels go down.   How are the injured players coming along?

[7express]

ECSU.......Your Warriors are looking good.!  Keep winning and the stress levels go down.   How are the injured players coming along?

Salzillo played the other day for 7 minutes I think, but missed all 3 of his 3 point attempts ending a streak of something like 45 or 50 straight games with at least 1 made 3 pointer.  Tonight, is their final regular season home game vs. the state rivals Western Connecticut, so I assume he'd play that game, but coach Geitner may sit some guys on Saturday @ USM.  That's a long trip, and would've already locked up the 1 seed and the regular season title.

[7express]

Half of the LEC tournament will be decided at the conclusion of the Eastern/Western game this evening:
A Western win sets the 4 semifinal hosts and locks Plymouth in 5th (they'll lose tiebreakers to both Dartmouth & Western) and leaves Dartmouth & Western fighting for the 3/4 spot on the final day with Western having the upper hand.
An Eastern win locks Dartmouth in at #3 and leaves Western & Plymouth fighting for #4 and the final home spot with once again Western holding the upper hand.
Eastern (#1), RIC (#2) and Boston (#8) are locked into their respective spots no matter what transpires on Saturday.

[ECSUalum]

ECSU.......Your Warriors are looking good.!  Keep winning and the stress levels go down.   How are the injured players coming along?

Amh63,
Salzillo is working himself back into condition after his 15 or so day absence, He scored 8 tonight on a couple of nice 2 point jumpers. 
Brandon Yarborough played today and seems to be almost back to his old self.
In the mean time, Tre Preston and Mike Garrow have taken up the  scoring slack with  freshman Huge Lindo and sophomore Kevin Lumene providing added offense, defense and rebounding.

Tonight  it was Lindo, Garrow and Preston with 13, 15 and 20 pts resp in a 74-59 defeat of the Colonials on Senior Night.  Lindo with another huge night in the rebounding category with 17.
WestConn kept the score close most of the game with Joe Gronski giving an outstanding performance in a very physical game tonight.

ECSU goes to University of Southern Maine for the final conference game and will try to be the first team in LEC history to go 14-0 in LEConference play.
I am hoping Salzillo and Yarborough will be back to top condition next week as ECSU will need everyone playing at top level to 1) win the LEC Tournament and 2) make some noise in the NCAA's.

Looks like the Amherst machine continues to roll, and I am hoping the Warriors get another shot at the Lord Jeff soon!!

BTW, I also want to say that Nick Aconfora and his team in the broadcast booth have done an outstanding job on the ECSU play by play/color this year.  They have really brought the quality of broadcasting of Eastern games to a new level and work hard to make the stream enjoyable and informative with their interviews, their knowledge of Eastern basketball in particular and the LEC in general.

[7express]

Eastern defeats Western 74-59.  Trachone Preston had 20 points coming off the bench for the Warriors as I believe Eastern was starting 4 seniors (the Salzillo's and Garrow's were looking good out there, btw.  I know their reading, so there's the daily shoutout to them.  The more the merrier!) and Hugh Lindo had 13 points and 17 rebounds, while Garrow put in 15 points in his final regular season game at Geissler gym.  Joe Groski had a game high 21 for Western, who is now guaranteed to be playing Plymouth in the 4/5 game next Tuesday.  The Colonials lose AND Panthers win, that game will be in Plymouth, while if the Colonials win OR Panthers lose, that game will be @ Western.  Seeing as Plymouth only has a 21% win probability @ RIC, whereas Western has a 85% win probability vs. Boston according to Massey, the odds of Western ending up 5th are about less than 5% I'd say.

96-38 for me.

Standings:
1) Eastern 12-0 (18-5)
2) RIC 10-3 (16-8)
3) Dartmouth 8-5 (15-9)
4) Western 7-6 (15-8)
4) Plymouth 7-6 (13-11)
6) Keene 4-9 (7-16)
7) USM 3-10 (7-17)
8) Boston 6-18 (0-13)
Western finished 2-0 vs. Plymouth, so they win ANY tiebreaker with Plymouth bases on the head-to-head sweep.

Tournament picture:
Eastern locked in at 1, RIC locked in at #2, Western's loss leaves Dartmouth locked at #3, and Boston is locked at #8
Western/Plymouth will finish 4/5 in some order: Western clinches the 4 with a win OR Plymouth loss
USM/Keene will be 6/7 in some order.  A Keene win OR USM loss gives Keene the 6 seed.

Saturday schedule:
Dartmouth @ Keene
Eastern @ USM
Plymouth @ RIC
Boston @ Western.  None of the games are really important.  A bunch of teams playing out the string on the regular season that can't move

[ECSUalum]

Yesterday's write-up on the ECSU vs WCSU game stated Brian Salzillo was suffering from Mono.

[7express]

Yesterdays write-up on the ECSU vs WCSU game states Brian Salzillo was suffering from Mono.

Makes sense for the length of time he missed.  I think Carolina Brasa for the Western women was out a couple weeks with mono 2 seasons ago, and Erika Bornemann from the Dartmouth women missed about 10 days earlier this year with mono.  Glad to see that he's doing OK!  I doubt they'll need him at 100% for the LEC tournament, but it would be nice to get him back to full strength by the time the NCAAs role around (March 6).

[ECSUalum]

Yesterdays write-up on the ECSU vs WCSU game states Brian Salzillo was suffering from Mono.

Makes sense for the length of time he missed.  I think Carolina Brasa for the Western women was out a couple weeks with mono 2 seasons ago, and Erika Bornemann from the Dartmouth women missed about 10 days earlier this year with mono.  Glad to see that he's doing OK!  I doubt they'll need him at 100% for the LEC tournament, but it would be nice to get him back to full strength by the time the NCAAs role around (March 6).

Thanks 7,
I know Mike Garrow  had it 2 yrs ago, apparently bad enough to keep him out for a longer period and thus for the rest of the season.  I was worried Brian might be in the same situation when I heard he was out, suspecting it was mono, but no confirmation.

Last night Gronski had another good game vs Eastern, I think he had close to a double double that game, (at the O'Neill Ctr), as well. A real solid tough player!!  Freshman Kendall Marquez is a guy who looks really good and, somehow Geitner let him get away, ie played across the street at Windham High School Willmantic.  I guess he wanted to get away to the other side of the state to go to school and play basketball. If Gates, Washington and Underwood can play, (ie score), more consistently, Western will be tough in the tournament and certainly by next year!!

[7express]

Yah.  I think we'll get by Plymouth, but may give Eastern some trouble in the semifinals.  It's a lot to ask of them to go into Willamentic and expect to beat one of the top teams in New England, but that's why they play the games.  If games were played on paper, everyone who follows basketball could be a millionaire via Vegas.

[7express]

Sat predictions:

Eastern @ USM.
An Eastern win gives them a 14-0 conference mark, the first LEC team to have accomplished that feat since Dartmouth did it the 92/93 season I believe, and probably a trip to the NCAA tournament even should they lose to Western/Plymouth/Dartmouth/RIC in the LEC tourney.  A win gives USM a little bit of momentum heading on the road to play Tuesday night, as they would go to either RIC if they finish 7th (a loss OR Keene win takes care of that) or Dartmouth should they finish 6th by winning this game, and by having the Corsairs defeat the Owls.  Eastern is a 17 point favorite with a 93% win probability.  I think USM may keep it close for a while as Eastern played on Wednesday, AND has the long drive up there tonight in bad weather, but the Warriors are shooting for history, and they won't let it pass by their fingertips.  Eastern 78-63

Boston @ Western.
Boston is locked in at #8 and will be heading back to Connecticut Tuesday night to take on the conference champs Warriors in the first round.  The Colonials are playing Plymouth in the 4/5 game: that game will be in Danbury with a Western win OR Plymouth loss, the game takes place in Plymouth with a Panthers win AND Western loss.  Boston played them tough in Boston, as they were up 12 with about 4:30 left, but they don't have the personel to match up with the Western at the O'Neil Center.  The oddsmakers have installed the Colonials as a 12 point favorite which sounds about right.  Don't really blow many teams out, and the Beacons would like to play spoiler, and nab that first conference win in the process.  Western 78-72

Dartmouth @ Keene.
This is probably going to be 3/6 game on Tuesday (Dartmouth is already locked in at 3), so really, what incentive is there to win this pretty much meaningless game??  Look at this as a glorified scrimmage.  I very well could be wrong, but I know if I were coach Colbert or Coach Baptiste I'd be pretty mad if one of my star guys (Nate Howard, Tom Doyle, Jake Laga, Tucker Bouchard, Ryan Walsh) got injured trying to chase a ball out of bounds.  Both coaches will say their probably going to go for the win, but I suspect this will be a bench battle the final 10+ minutes no matter the score.  Get the starters some minutes so they stay fresh, keep them out of harms way, and then put in the bench for the rest of the game.  The Oddsmakers have made the Corsairs a slight 2.5 point favorite, but I think the Keene bench is slightly better (plus their starters probably play longer), so I'll take the Owls by a 81-77 score.

Plymouth @ RIC.
Another game that will be pretty meaningless, even more so if Western beats Boston to lock Plymouth in at #5.  Does RIC care at all about this game??  They can't move up or down, or can't even tie for a conference title.  Boston probably doesn't win @ Western, but you play the games, so at least Plymouth still has that 5% chance of hosting the game.  The Anchormen have been labeled a 6 point favorite by the oddsmakers, but I'll take the Panthers to win 65-61.

[ECSUalum]

Here are some ECSU overall stats to ponder:

                                     FG%      3PT%     FT %    RB/g    TO/g      Off Pts/g  Def Pts/g      Delta Off/Def Pts    LEConf W/L       Comments
                                    ------      ------     ------    ------   ------     ----------   ----------      -------------------    -----------    -----------------------------------
2013/14 ECSU (TYD )    .438        .370       .718     41.1     16.5        73.6        64.5                   +9.1                 13-0         Much Younger team vs 10/11

2011/12 ECSU (FY)       .462        .356       .637     36.3      13.3       71.6        59.7                   +11.9                11-3         Sweet 16 team                   


13/14       13/14
ECSU    Conference
Rank vs NESCAC (YTD)    8th      5th        8th        2nd       12th        8th         3rd      Am'erst = +13                    NA             rank based on 11 NESCAC teams