MBB: Little East

[7express]

To let one person score 51 of 92 points (55% of the team's points) is flat out awful.  I'm sorry.

I can't disagree with you there Allstar.

[7express]

Quarterfinal predictions:

#8 USM @ #1 Eastern 7:30.
They just played on Saturday and Eastern won by only 14 without Trachone Preston, but they beat them by 29 in Maine.  The 1 seed is 11-0 all time in the 1/8 game, but in the last 2 years the 8 has given the 1 everything it can handle.  In 2014 after running over the LEC competition including beating Boston by 13 & 21, Eastern only won the quarterfinal game by 6.  In 2013 the 1 seed RIC only beat the 8 seed Dartmouth by 4 but the 2 regular season games were close with RIC winning twice by a combined 15 points.  In 2007 RIC (who finishes 27-4 that year) as the 1 seed went to overtime against the 8 seed 6-20 USM.  It may look like a complete mismatch, but this is what makes the tournament so good you throw the records out the window, so everything Eastern did between November 15-February 21 is extinguished.  USM is going home after the game and is clearing out their lockers on Wednesday if they lose, why not make Eastern sweat a little.  Oddsmakers have made Eastern a big 13.5 point favorite, and I'll take the points with the Huskies with Eastern winning 73-65

#7 Plymouth @ #2 RIC 7 PM.
Unlike USM who may keep it close vs. USM, I can't see the same thing happening with Plymouth @ RIC.  Like Eastern/USM they just played Saturday so I doubt Plymouth loses by 28 points again.  However, that 28 point game was at Plymouth and now go down to the Murray Center for an LEC tournament game.  Also, Plymouth hasn't beaten RIC in 5 years, and really even come close to beating them in those 5 years as RIC has won 11 straight games since their last loss; 10 of those 11 wins are by double digits.  At least USM has beaten Eastern/played them close a couple of times in that same 5 year span.  RIC is a 15 point favorite and I say they get the cover; RIC 68-51

#6 Boston @ #3 Dartmouth 7:30 PM.
Let's take a look and analyze Dartmouth's February schedule in which the Corsairs went a disappointing 2-4 in 6 games:
Game 1: 77-75 L vs. Tufts.  On the surface not terrible as Tufts finished in the top 4 of the NESCAC.  However when you dig deeper, even though the NESCAC will likely get 3 NCAA tournament teams anyways (Amherst & Trinity probably get in, Bates should be in) and if Bowdoin/Wesleyan win the NESCAC tournament they'll get a 4th bid, however the conference was bad.  Amherst finished 5th; Williams finished 7th; Middlebury didn't make the conference tournament!  So, yes Tufts was 4th, but they got there when the power teams had a "down year."  This game was also at home, without Tufts' best player and Dartmouth was rolling coming in winners of 6 of 8 and that was bad
Game 2: 95-68 W vs. Southern Maine.  Cool, you can beat Southern Maine??  Every team in the LEC beat them at least once this year.
Game 3: 79-75 L @ Boston.  I know Boston is playing well, I know it's on the road, I know it's a rivalry game but you're 8-2 1 game back of first place playing a 2-8 team.  I'm sorry, good teams would've found a way to fight, claw & win that game.  That's bad
Game 4: 74-65 L vs. Eastern.  Eastern is 50-6 in LEC games the last 4 years so this is excusable.  When we take a look deeper we find this was for the conference title....at home, and after trailing for pretty much the majority of the first half, they went into halftime up 3 and actually lead as much as 6 in the second half before they got run over in the final 17 minutes.
Game 5: 75-64 L @ RIC.  Now we finally run into the "final scores are deceiving" department!  On the surface 11 point L road L against one of the better teams in the conference.  Not bad, right??  Couldn't have been further from the truth as RIC actually lead by 32 (32!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!) at the 11:33 mark before they fell asleep at the wheel, and of the 31 points Jordan rezendes scored 21 came in the second half mostly in garbage time to cut that 32 point deficit into a much more manageable and respectable 11 point deficit that deceives everyone just looking at the boxscore.
Game 6: 92-80 W vs. Keene.  Even with Rezendes scoring 51 of the 92 points Keene lead for much of the game up until the final 10 minutes where Dartmouth took the lead for good.  Also Rezendes scored 25 of Dartmouth's last 28 points, so it's entirely possible without him they lose. 
So, let's bring this back to Dartmouth/Boston.  Rarely do players have 2 good games in a row, even in the 2 years watching DaQuan brooks I think there was only one or 2 times in those 50 ish games or so where I saw him record back-to-back 35+ point games so the odds are Rezendes won't be hitting 50 again (though he is averaging 30.7 through 6 February games), so who else on Dartmouth can step up if Rezendes goes cold??  In this 6 game Rezendez tear (22, 24, 22, 34, 31, 51) the next highest Corsair point total in that stretch??  24 scored by John Genkos in a game he actually outscored Rezendes!  As I saw with Brooks, you a rarely, if ever, successful when one player accounts for close to 50% of your team's offense output.  Boston meanwhile has ended the season winning 4 straight and they actually have a better overall record than Dartmouth does (14-11 vs. 13-12)....and a MUCH better OOC win then Dartmouth does beating nationally ranked (at the time) MIT, plus as I said with USM earlier, the Beacons are going home after the game anyways, if the Beacons lose the players clear out their locker and Charlie Titus clears out his office, why not get your state rivals clearing out their lockers??  I don't think Dartmouth is right around average like their 13-12 record states, but also don't think their a top tier team like their 9-5 LEC record states they are.  Dartmouth is favored by 6 points, but I like the Beacons for the win; 71-67.

#5 Western Connecticut @ #4 Keene State 7 PM.
Dating back to the 2006 season Western is 5-12 in 17 meetings vs. Keene; taking out the 2012 season when Western swept them during the season they are 3-12 in 15 matchups dating back to that 2006 season.  Speaking of that 2012 season....The Colonials won in Keene by 7 but needed 46 points from DaQuan Brooks (30 in the second half alone) to get the win and the rematch in Danbury saw the Colonials win overtime but they got a season high and career day from Shawn Mobillio with 19 points and needed all those 19.  So, even in that season they were lucky to get 1 win much less 2 wins (because we could've easily lost both games) and since then it's been 1 disappointment against Keene after another, the latest being a couple weeks ago up in Keene which saw the Colonials up 4 at halftime but somehow saw them lose the game by 18  .  The Owls also won by 13 in Danbury in January.  Because of this the Owls are listed as a 4.5 point favorite.  I always say it's tough to beat a team, especially a good one, 3 times in 1 season, but when one team constantly has your number year after year after year you stick with the numbers, until the other team proves they can win 2 or 3 in a row in the series.  It's the same reason starting next year I'll NEVER pick Keene against RIC again (I think Keene has won once in the last 6 years) or Keene against Eastern again (like RIC I think Keene is like 3-15 since 2010) but unless Western wins this AND wins the first meeting next year (likely @ Keene as well) I'll ALWAYS pick Keene against Western; Keene 85-75

[7express]

RIC up 50-43 with 4 mins to play
Eastern up 41-28
Dartmouth leads 44-32
Western up 1 46-45; first to 75 wins!

[7express]

Chalks talk in the LEC tourney:
Eastern wins 80-39, Dartmouth won 98-82, RIC won 66-62, Keene won 101-99.  As expected Keene hit 75 first and withstood a late Western charge.  Tough to win games in college giving up 101 points...the fact we scored 99 makes that even worse 

Should be some good match ups on Friday; Keene @ Eastern, RIC vs Dartmouth.

[AllStar]

The men's semifinals remain on Friday despite changes.

5:00 pm - Keene State at Eastern Connecticut

7:00 pm - UMass-Dartmouth vs. Rhode Island College (RIC plays as home team)

Championship game will be Saturday at 2:00 pm...before the women have even played the semifinals.

[7express]

The men's semifinals remain on Friday despite changes.

5:00 pm - Keene State at Eastern Connecticut

7:00 pm - UMass-Dartmouth vs. Rhode Island College (RIC plays as home team)

Championship game will be Saturday at 2:00 pm...before the women have even played the semifinals.

I wish they played the women's first on Friday in the afternoon.  I have a wedding to attend in Philadelphia on Saturday so obviously I won't be at either of the games Saturday and was looking forward to an a whole day of LEC semifinal basketball up in Eastern (hell I even called out of work on Friday!)  So needless to say I'm just a tad disappointment in the scheduling switch.  St. Norbert's out of the Midwest conference is hosting both the men's and women's semifinals and both of those are played on the same day, so I wonder why the LEC couldn't do the same??

[amh63]

7express....hope the Wedding in Philly is not yours! . 

[7express]

7express....hope the Wedding in Philly is not yours! .

C'mon Amh, you'd think I would schedule my wedding for championship Saturday?   

[7express]

Semifinal predictions:

#4 Keene @ #1 Eastern 5 PM.
Eastern completely blew them out up in Keene, but a couple weeks back in February without Preston the Owls only lost by 6 at Willi and were leading for most of the game.  Keene beat the Warriors in the semifinals of the 2013 tournament but aside from that game and the first matchup of the 2012 season I can't remember the last time Keene beat them, and just like I said in the Keene/Western preview until Keene can get 2 or 3 wins in a row against Eastern I will NEVER pick the Owls vs. the Warriors, I'll stay safe and let the numbers do the talking!  Eastern is favored by 6.5 points but I think Keene keeps it close for most of the game but Eastern wins 81-76.

#2 RIC vs. #3 Dartmouth 7:30 PM.
Season series was tied 1-1 with both teams winning at home.  Dartmouth won by 10, and RIC won by 11 but lead by as much as 32 that game before they fell asleep at the wheel.  In a 2 vs. 3 game on a neutral court the better team no matter the seed or records usually wins but I see faults in both of these teams.  Dartmouth will have the best player on the court by far in Jordan Rezendes who's averaging 38.7 ppg in his last 3 contest so if he gets hot look out.  On the other hand, RIC has more balanced scoring and plays better defense.  What's making me lean the slightest bit towards Dartmouth is the fact they steamrolled a very good Boston team 98-82 in the semifinals while RIC struggled to put away a very bad Plymouth team and only won by 4 66-62.  Oddsmakers have the Anchormen as a slight 2 point favorite but I think Dartmouth gets revenge from their blowout semifinal loss to RIC last year and wins tonight 77-76.

[7express]

Keene leads 41-31 at halftime.  Just like a couple weeks ago in Willi, Keene was up by as much as 11 in the first half before Eastern came out at the start of the second like a house on fire, cut in on the lead and eventually won by 6.  We'll see if the same holds true tonight.

[falcons2010]

Keene upsets East Conn. The last 10 minutes were controlled by Keene.

[7express]

Keene wins 81-63.  Eastern got as close as 6 but from the 8 minute mark on Keene controlled the game.  I still think Eastern makes the tournament which in that case would make the LEC a 2 bid league.
RIC beats Dartmouth 75-63.  RIC has made the finals of the LEC 9 straight years. 

That sets up #2 RIC vs. #4 Keene tomorrow at 2.  Neither team is getting a pool C bid, and neither declared for the ECAC, so it's win and your in, lose and your done.  I'll try to be watching this on my trip down to Philadelphia tomorrow.

[7express]

Saturday predictions:

#4 Keene vs. #2 RIC 2 PM
Kinda weird how the men will complete the tournament before the women even start their semifinals.  This is the 9th straight year RIC will play for the LEC championship, a truly remarkable feat.  I'm pretty sure that's the active streak, but I wonder if it's even close??  Whitworth out of the NWC is at 10 straight, but the NWC only sends 4 teams and the first couple of years they only sent 3 and the 1 seed (which Whitworth was) got sent straight to the championship, so does that count??  Cabrini is at 7 straight out of the CSAC, but other than those 2 I can't think of any other conferences that have had 1 team consistently dominate it for the last 7+ years like RIC has done in the LEC, Whitworth has done in the NWC and Cabrini has done in the CSAC.  RIC has owned the series recently winning 8 straight and 14 of 15 overall, however Eastern had completely owned the series and Keene completely dominated them.  Got out to a quick, early lead, had enough of a cushion to withstand the Eastern 2nd half run, and then completely knocked them out.  The way Keene played vs. Eastern, there is no way RIC can beat them, but which Keene team is going to show up??  Luckily for them RIC isn't that proficient at the offense end and if Keene can manage to get to 75 I think they'll pull it out.  Keene gets to 80 they win, RIC can't put up 80, even on a defense as bad as the Owls, 79-70 is a tossup, 69 or less and Keene loses.  Oddsmakers have set the Anchormen as a 4.5 point favorite with an over/under of 155 points.  I'll take the Owls to win 79-75 and just miss the 155 point threshold.

[ECSUalum]

Saturday predictions:

#4 Keene vs. #2 RIC 2 PM
Kinda weird how the men will complete the tournament before the women even start their semifinals.  This is the 9th straight year RIC will play for the LEC championship, a truly remarkable feat.  I'm pretty sure that's the active streak, but I wonder if it's even close??  Whitworth out of the NWC is at 10 straight, but the NWC only sends 4 teams and the first couple of years they only sent 3 and the 1 seed (which Whitworth was) got sent straight to the championship, so does that count??  Cabrini is at 7 straight out of the CSAC, but other than those 2 I can't think of any other conferences that have had 1 team consistently dominate it for the last 7+ years like RIC has done in the LEC, Whitworth has done in the NWC and Cabrini has done in the CSAC.  RIC has owned the series recently winning 8 straight and 14 of 15 overall, however Eastern had completely owned the series and Keene completely dominated them.  Got out to a quick, early lead, had enough of a cushion to withstand the Eastern 2nd half run, and then completely knocked them out.  The way Keene played vs. Eastern, there is no way RIC can beat them, but which Keene team is going to show up??  Luckily for them RIC isn't that proficient at the offense end and if Keene can manage to get to 75 I think they'll pull it out.  Keene gets to 80 they win, RIC can't put up 80, even on a defense as bad as the Owls, 79-70 is a tossup, 69 or less and Keene loses.  Oddsmakers have set the Anchormen as a 4.5 point favorite with an over/under of 155 points.  I'll take the Owls to win 79-75 and just miss the 155 point threshold.

7,
First, Another great year of insightful commentary on LEC basketball this season!!!  Hopefully you are pursuing a sports journalism career, as you have a talent for it!!!
Eastern did not play any defense last night and with the poor FT shooting and turnovers, they were bound to lose.  83 points is the most points Eastern gave up all year, not good timing to do so in the LEC tournament .   Congrats to Keene as they took it to Eastern last night and DID play defense!  Also congrats to Tom Doyle, who was outstanding last night, and outstanding in his 4 year career.  A tremendous student athlete from Notre Dame HS Wallingford CT, that got away from ECSU recruiters

[7express]

And Western too Alum.  He came in that year when Brooks, Nedwick, and Kohn were all seniors.

I would've loved to have him with Brooks actually have a talent in 2013 when we had that embarrassing 5-21 season (think Doyle even as a soph would've gotten a few more wins) then you bring in Marquez in 14.

Even at Eastern put him in there with Robaitille and Ives in 13, and even if Ives gets hurt, they probably still make the NCAAs that year instead of the ECAC.  And don't even get me started on Nate Howard getting away.....Western with the tallest player at 6"6 would be so much better and more proficient on offense if we had a 7"0 guy on the offensive AND defensive end!  Opens up the playbook for so many more plays.