Bumblin' B's

[Pat Coleman]

Regional rankings are out:

http://d3blogs.com/d3hoops/2009/02/18/ncaa-regional-rankings-week-2-3/

[elfinley]

With CU's opponent WP, I guess we can count on another D3 tournament with no independent:

Chapman  22-3 0.880 Won 8

Rust  13-11 0.542 Lost 2

St. Joseph's (Bklyn.)   10-13 0.435 Lost 1

UC Santa Cruz  9-13 0.409 Won 2

Nebraska Wesleyan 10-15 0.400 Lost 2

North Central (Minn.)  6-12 0.333 Lost 1

Finlandia 7-14 0.333 Won 1

Lancaster Bible 8-17 0.320 Lost 2

Lincoln  8-17 0.320 Lost 1

Spalding  2-5 0.286 Won 1

Maine-Presque Isle 3-17 0.150 Lost 7

La Sierra  3-21 0.125 Lost 1

[oldchap]

With CU's opponent WP, I guess we can count on another D3 tournament with no independent:

Chapman  22-3 0.880 Won 8

Granted, Chapman has one of the worst OWP in the nation. However, it also has a win over a regionally ranked team (CMS) and a good overall record. At this point, we have to watch the other Pool B hopeful to see if CU even has a small chance of making it.

Here is a recent post from someone in the know. All is not lost.

oldchap, my most recent look at the Pool B's leads me to believe that Chapman should hope that CMS finishes strong.

The strength of schedule numbers cannot be fixed, but a win over a regionally ranked team, coupled with the dissolution of all of the Landmark teams, may let Chapman in.  (Pabegg has Susquehanna and Scranton quite a bit ahead of Chapman and Maryville).

You also need to watch the strong finish by Maryville.  They have 2 "results" versus Centre (both losses), an in-region loss to regionally ranked Transylvania and a win over USA South leading (but currently regionally unranked) Averett.  Averett could end up in the final (and unseen) regional rankings, if they run the conference table and the tourney, especially as the teams above them are picking up tourney losses.  Averett is 9th of 11 in his South rankings, and at least 7 of the other 10 teams around Averett will pick up losses.  Maryville's conference is relatively weak, so they aren't getting any help in OWP either.

In the West, I think you want Whitworth, Cornell, Bethel and UW EauClaire to lose early. You probably want St Thomas, Puget Sound, and the three best UW's to finish strong.  I don't know if UPS can be knocked down far enough to help you.  I think you want them to eliminate the competition around Whitworth, if possible.
I think that Chapman is the longest long shot of the Pool B's at this time.  (I don't think that Northwestern MN has a chance either.)  I honestly don't know if Whitworth has coattails to pull Chapman into Pool B.

(That Dallas loss really hurts!)

Good luck.

In fact, I'm hoping that since only one SCIAC team is going to make it to the Tournament this year, the Committee may decide, in order to minimize travel, to pit Chapman against the SCIAC winner locally, in a first round game.

I'm crossing my fingers. I'm biased of course, but I think that Chapman this year has what it takes to be competitive in the playoffs. For instance, the Massey Ratings (http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cb&yr=2009&sub=III&mid=6) have Chapman at #34 in Division III.

A first round CMS/Chapman game would yield a 50/50 chance for CU to move on, reinforcing my opinion.

[pabegg]

The SCIAC has virtually no chance of a Pool C team (if they do, it's CMS).

The traditional geographical rules would guarantee that Chapman would face the SCIAC winner. The "extra flight" rule that they added this year might make a difference, especially if Whitworth gets into the tournament (either as a Pool C or as an upset Pool A entrant). In this case, the NCAA might fly both Southern Cal teams to Tacoma to join the NWC teams, with a likely bracket of UPS-Chapman, CMS-Whitworth.

[oldchap]

The SCIAC has virtually no chance of a Pool C team (if they do, it's CMS).

The traditional geographical rules would guarantee that Chapman would face the SCIAC winner. The "extra flight" rule that they added this year might make a difference, especially if Whitworth gets into the tournament (either as a Pool C or as an upset Pool A entrant). In this case, the NCAA might fly both Southern Cal teams to Tacoma to join the NWC teams, with a likely bracket of UPS-Chapman, CMS-Whitworth.

Of course, a UPS-Chapman matchup would be more like 80/20 in favor of Puget Sound....   

But, hey, Chapman would have made it to the playoff for the first time at least!! 

[Pat Coleman]

With CU's opponent WP, I guess we can count on another D3 tournament with no independent

If so, that would be an interminably painful streak of two consecutive years without an independent.

[Ralph Turner]

Elms is #3 in the Northeast
Scranton is #8 in the Mid-Atlantic.

No other Pool B's are regionally ranked.

Scranton hosts Catholic on Feb 25th.

CMS is #7 in the West Region.  I guess that Chapman is riding CMS' coattails.  (Chapman is 1-1 versus regionally ranked opponents.)

CMS is not likely to rise in the West Region standings, because there are the WIAC's and then conference leaders St Thomas, UPS and BV ahead of CMS.  Whitworth is #8.

[oldchap]

Elms is #3 in the Northeast
Scranton is #8 in the Mid-Atlantic.

No other Pool B's are regionally ranked.

Scranton hosts Catholic on Feb 25th.

CMS is #7 in the West Region.  I guess that Chapman is riding CMS' coattails.  (Chapman is 1-1 versus regionally ranked opponents.)

CMS is not likely to rise in the West Region standings, because there are the WIAC's and then conference leaders St Thomas, UPS and BV ahead of CMS.  Whitworth is #8.

So, in your opinion, does it mean that both Elms and Scranton pretty much have a lock on a Pool B bid? If that's the case, that leaves one more spot to be filled. Which other team(s) besides Chapman would be vying for this spot and why should they be ahead (or behind) Chapman?

[Ralph Turner]

Elms is #3 in the Northeast
Scranton is #8 in the Mid-Atlantic.

No other Pool B's are regionally ranked.

Scranton hosts Catholic on Feb 25th.

CMS is #7 in the West Region.  I guess that Chapman is riding CMS' coattails.  (Chapman is 1-1 versus regionally ranked opponents.)

CMS is not likely to rise in the West Region standings, because there are the WIAC's and then conference leaders St Thomas, UPS and BV ahead of CMS.  Whitworth is #8.

So, in your opinion, does it mean that both Elms and Scranton pretty much have a lock on a Pool B bid? If that's the case, that leaves one more spot to be filled. Which other team(s) besides Chapman would be vying for this spot and why should they be ahead (or behind) Chapman?

Elms is a lock.  Scranton has the "inside track" over the rest of the Landmark Pool B schools, going into the tourney.

Who else is vying?  Any Pool B team that is currently off-the-table...  Maryville TN, Susquehanna, Catholic, Northwestern MN...

I honestly don't have the "numbers" that the NCAA uses to see how far "off the table" that Chapman or any other Pool B team is.

I guess that we wait until Monday.

[OxyBob]

I honestly don't have the "numbers" that the NCAA uses to see how far "off the table" that Chapman or any other Pool B team is.

Chapman will be seeking to further lower its 3rd-worst-in-D-III strength of schedule (No. 399 of 401) this weekend against 3-21 La Sierra (which CU has already played 4 times) and 9-13 UC Santa Cruz in the D-III Independents Tournament to be held at La Sierra. (Yes, it's true, a 3-21 team really plays in a postseason tournament.) If Chapman gets into the NCAA playoffs with its pathetic OWP of .355, then the selection committee might as well junk SOS as one of the considered criteria because including Chapman will render SOS numbers meaningless.

OxyBob

[Mr. Ypsi]

I honestly don't have the "numbers" that the NCAA uses to see how far "off the table" that Chapman or any other Pool B team is.

Chapman will be seeking to further lower its 3rd-worst-in-D-III strength of schedule (No. 399 of 401) this weekend against 3-21 La Sierra (which CU has already played 4 times) and 9-13 UC Santa Cruz in the D-III Independents Tournament to be held at La Sierra. (Yes, it's true, a 3-21 team really plays in a postseason tournament.) If Chapman gets into the NCAA playoffs with its pathetic OWP of .355, then the selection committee might as well junk SOS as one of the considered criteria because including Chapman will render SOS numbers meaningless.

OxyBob

Never forget that the B's once got a team in at 13-12(?) (2007, U of Dallas?).

[Pat Coleman]

In 2004, not 2007.

http://www.d3hoops.com/school/UDAL/mens/2004

They were 8-2 in-region under the older in-region definitions. As you can see, they did play some decent teams en route to that 8-2.

They would've been 9-8 in-region under the current in-region definition and current Division III membership alignment.

[Ralph Turner]

I honestly don't have the "numbers" that the NCAA uses to see how far "off the table" that Chapman or any other Pool B team is.

Chapman will be seeking to further lower its 3rd-worst-in-D-III strength of schedule (No. 399 of 401) this weekend against 3-21 La Sierra (which CU has already played 4 times) and 9-13 UC Santa Cruz in the D-III Independents Tournament to be held at La Sierra. (Yes, it's true, a 3-21 team really plays in a postseason tournament.) If Chapman gets into the NCAA playoffs with its pathetic OWP of .355, then the selection committee might as well junk SOS as one of the considered criteria because including Chapman will render SOS numbers meaningless.

OxyBob

Never forget that the B's once got a team in at 13-12(?) (2007, U of Dallas?).

(Pat beat me.)

2004.  

UDallas bussed to 498 miles to Sul Ross State in Alpine TX (elevation 4475') only to lose 67-71.  Sul Ross then bussed to Trinity TX where they beat TU 74-72.  SRSU lost to Lawrence in OT in the Sweet 16 at UPS.  (Larry U lost to national champion UWSP in OT.)  UDallas was competitive that year.

[Boal]

Hello everyone!

I'm new to these boards but I am an avid D3 Hoops enthusiast and hope to be more involved in the discussion in the future.  Ok with that said, I wanted to say something about Chapman's SOS and a quick response to Ralph's post just above mine.

Chapman will more than likely be 17-3 in region after this weekend and regardless of their OWP this is fairly impressive.  OxyBob, in his last couple posts here, seems to be a Chapman hater and that's understandable considering this is the first year Oxy has lost to Chapman in a long time (7 years or so I believe).  The fact that Chapman will go 17-3 and undefeated against SCAIC teams is a statement in and of itself.  The reason their SOS is so low is because they play La Sierra 5 times.  If Chapman were to only play La Sierra 1 time instead of 5 their in region record would be 13-3 and their OWP would be much, much higher.  OWP is a decent gauge of the opponents strength, but when it comes to this specific case it is vastly skewed.  Because Chapman beats them 5 times it drives their SOS rank through the floor and to punish someone for winning is not right.

And to respond to Ralph's post all I have to say is that maybe the committee should give Chapman a chance like they did to Dallas.  They only lost 2 players last year and they have 4 returning starters from last years squad that got skipped over for no reason whatsoever.  I'm not saying the committee should make up for a probable mistake it made last year, but I am saying that Chapman could and probably would be more competitive than U of Dallas was in 2004 (especially with their overall record so strong).

[Mr. Ypsi]

In 2004, not 2007.

http://www.d3hoops.com/school/UDAL/mens/2004

They were 8-2 in-region under the older in-region definitions. As you can see, they did play some decent teams en route to that 8-2.

They would've been 9-8 in-region under the current in-region definition and current Division III membership alignment.

I thought it was longer ago than 2007, but from U of Dallas's website, 2007 looked like the 'correct' final record.  That change in 'regional' record explains a lot.  Even for the 'bumblin's', that overall record stood out like a sore thumb.

Was that the occasion for the naming of this thread?  (I think so, but things more than 20 minutes ago get hazy for me. )