Bumblin' B's

[Pat Coleman]

Are we guessing the 3 Pool Bs are:

Scranton from the Landmark
Maryville (TN) from GSAC
Chapman (independent)

Don't forget Elms at the top of that list.

[Boal]

Are we guessing the 3 Pool Bs are:

Scranton from the Landmark
Maryville (TN) from GSAC
Chapman (independent)

No we know Elms and Scranton are in.

We are debating Maryville and Chapman since Susquehanna is slightly behind them since they just lost today.

  There is no way that a team should get in with a .500 record even if their SOS is number 1.  If you can't win the majority of your games no matter who you play you don't deserve to be going to the playoffs.  Am I all alone on this side of the argument?

You're twisting the argument beyond all recognition.

I apologize if I am, but that is the impression you're leaving me with.

[Pat Coleman]

No, you're taking it and overreacting, and frankly, I don't have the time to debate someone who's going to distort off the deep end.

Nobody here is talking about putting a team with a .500 winning percentage in the tournament. We're talking about 17-3 vs. 16-6 vs. 16-7, three teams within two games of each other if you were looking at standings and one that played a significantly easier schedule to get to that record.

[Greek Tragedy]

Sometimes I forget what conferences are Pool B.  I knew that the Landmark (grace period) and the GSAC (4 teams) were Pool Bs...I failed to realize the NECC (what reason?) was also Pool B eligible.

Could this be the year we see a Pool B eligible team get a Pool C?

Elms
Scanton
Maryville
Chapman

I guess Maryville and Chapman aren't even regionally ranked, so probably not.

[Pat Coleman]

The NECC is new, like the Landmark was last year.

[Ralph Turner]

Sometimes I forget what conferences are Pool B.  I knew that the Landmark (grace period) and the GSAC (4 teams) were Pool Bs...I failed to realize the NECC (what reason?) was also Pool B eligible.

Could this be the year we see a Pool B eligible team get a Pool C?

Elms
Scanton
Maryville
Chapman

I guess Maryville and Chapman aren't even regionally ranked, so probably not.

Old school, with the losses in the South Region Maryville might end up regionally ranked in the final rankings.

They played Transy (HCAC champ), Centre twice (SCAC finals vs Southwestern), the USAC Champ Averett (beating them by 39 points), beat VWC (ODAC finals) and HSC (ODAC Semis).  At 16-6, they might end up regionally ranked.

[Boal]

No, you're taking it and overreacting, and frankly, I don't have the time to debate someone who's going to distort off the deep end.

Nobody here is talking about putting a team with a .500 winning percentage in the tournament. We're talking about 17-3 vs. 16-6 vs. 16-7, three teams within two games of each other if you were looking at standings and one that played a significantly easier schedule to get to that record.

I don't mean to distort it at all and I apologize if I am, but that's how it seems.  When you throw out the term results it sounds like you get recognition for playing more games against good teams regardless of how you win or lose.  And if that is the case then teams should play the worst 13 teams in their region go 13-0 and play the best 10 teams in their region and possibly go 3-7.  Would that generate enough buzz with the committee?  Let's take a hypothetical situation and say that happened this year with University of Makebelieve.  At 16-7 with 3-7 against regionally ranked teams be enough to push out Chapman and Maryville and Susquehanna?

This is an honest hypothetical so I can understand the system better, and I know it looks like snotty sarcasm but I assure you it is not.

[Pat Coleman]

Maybe -- with that kind of record against regionally ranked teams you would be bound to have a good OWP. It would also be three wins against regionally ranked teams, which is more than the one any of the three teams on the proverbial board for the last Pool B slot this year could claim.

[Ralph Turner]

Baol, you are even losing me now.

The hypothetical gets lost on the fact that we don't see that happening.

Chapman may have ended up with that, and it comes down to the fact that Chapman should not have lost the UDallas game. Instead of 13-0 in your hypothetical, Chapman was 12-1!

I saw UDallas play twice.  They lost by two points to Wells in the NEAC semis today.  Wells also has similar OWP.  Chapman needed to beat UDallas.  They did not, and I think that Maryville gets the 3rd Pool B because of that.

[Boal]

Maybe -- with that kind of record against regionally ranked teams you would be bound to have a good OWP. It would also be three wins against regionally ranked teams, which is more than the one any of the three teams on the proverbial board for the last Pool B slot this year could claim.

Ok see now I am getting the hang of how this whole thing works.  As said in an earlier post this is a flawed system but it is the one we are handed so everyone should deal accordingly. 

Baol, you are even losing me now.

The hypothetical gets lost on the fact that we don't see that happening.

Chapman may have ended up with that, and it comes down to the fact that Chapman should not have lost the UDallas game. Instead of 13-0 in your hypothetical, Chapman was 12-1!

I saw UDallas play twice.  They lost by two points to Wells in the NEAC semis today.  Wells also has similar OWP.  Chapman needed to beat UDallas.  They did not, and I think that Maryville gets the 3rd Pool B because of that.

And LOL Ralph I'm sorry if that last one was confusing I knew it was going to be.  You seemed to have gotten the gist of it though.  I agree Chapman should not have lost to U of D, but they did win out from there on to get their name in tossed in the fray. 

The point I was trying to make with the hypothetical situation is that the system can be worked.  It seems like Maryville and Chapman played the game very similar ways, but the dice fell and it turned up snake eyes for Chapman (playing La Sierra on accident 3 extra times is snake eyes).  But does that mean that Maryville is a better team?  Their league is absolutely abysmal just as Chapman's schedule was, the only difference is a few teams in their region happened to lose this week and Chapman's region held strong and performed how it should have (with the exception of the last game between Puget Sound and Whitworth which actually seems to look back favorably upon Chapman). 

I guess all Chapman can do at this point is say their Hail Mary's and pray the committee views the two teams criterion as equal and on par with each other.  From there they can move down the list of qualifications and see Chapman is the stronger team that would perform stronger in the tournament.

By the way, I know it's not listed as one of the 5 steps to determine whether or not a team makes playoffs, but does the selection committee ever look at stats?  Like the fact that Chapman has the number one defense in the country?

[Pat Coleman]

I don't think Chapman and Maryville "played the game" the same way at all.

What does it mean to have "the No. 1 defense" against the No. 399 schedule?

[fritzdis]

Maybe -- with that kind of record against regionally ranked teams you would be bound to have a good OWP.

I was bored enough to look at the NE region (the only one with 10 ranked teams) to examine this extreme hypothetical:

I believe the 10 teams in the last ranking finish the season with an average in-region winning % of .811 (Middlebury and Amhert will combine to go 1-1).  If Bowdoin is replaced by say UNE, the average would go to .830.  If Amherst loses and is replaced, it probably won't have much impact on the average, so I'll use .830 for the 10 ranked teams.

For the sake of the hypothetical, I assumed overall winning % = regional winning % to find the "worst" 13 teams in the region (I exlcuded Maine Presque-Isle and Lesley).  The average winning % for these 13 teams is .201.

In this scenario, the OWP would be .474.

[Pat Coleman]

http://www.d3hoops.com/salem/09/projected.htm

Our projections are up.

[OxyBob]

I saw UDallas play twice.  They lost by two points to Wells in the NEAC semis today.  Wells also has similar OWP.  Chapman needed to beat UDallas.  They did not, and I think that Maryville gets the 3rd Pool B because of that.

Plus after Chapman lost to UDallas, Chapman's whipping boy La Sierra beat UD, which magnifies CU's loss to now-we-don't-get-in-the-playoffs proportions.

OxyBob

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Boal - another thing you have to consider, which you don't seem to be doing, Maryville went out and played more challenging teams and got results than Chapman. Chapman put in a home-and-home with La Sierra, whether they knew they were playing them three more times or not. Chapman should consider playing a lot more games in the beginning of the season against SCIAC and other conference teams so they don't run into a scheduling problems at this time of the year with no team to play except La Sierra. Sure... it means less games in February, but it means a better regional schedule in the eyes of the NCAA (since they look at the ENTIRE season and not just January and February).

Plain and simple, Chapman's schedule would leave it to believe that they shouldn't have had three regional losses... and probably should have had ONLY one! They have the third worst SOS in the nation and you are trying to argue that they will be getting hosed if they don't make the tourney. Yet, with that SOS... if they are really as good as some people are trying to argue... thier record should have been FAR better.

If Chapman makes the tourney this season, I think we will all be scratching our heads like we did last year with Moravian!