Bumblin' B's

[njlincolnlion]

Ralph & Hoops Fan:

I completely agree with regarding Lincoln.  They play home for the remainder of the season after the Delaware Valley trip tomorrow, and if they slip up, they have no one but themselves to blame.  All the remaing games Lincoln plays should be big wins except for Richard Stockton.  As I have mentioned previously, the home court should give Lincoln the advantage over Stockton.

Last year Lincoln had to travel to Maine for the DIII tourney and lost to NJCU for the second time in the season in the Championship game, and that loss doomed their NCAA bid.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Just to comfort you, last year, I'm not sure Lincoln would have gotten in without a win over NJCU and the trip to Maine was their only chance.  They've gotten smarter this year, ending at home.

[Ralph Turner]

Big win for Fisk at Maryville TN 86-76.

Maryville had come off their rivalry win over D2 Carson-Newman on Monday night and may have not had as much left in their tank.

Fisk is now 8-2 in-region.  We see the Regional Rankings next Wednesday.

Fisk has 4 winnable in-region games before the GSAC tourney, which I understand will be at Huntingdon this year.

If they pick up 2 more wins in the Tourney, then 14-2 in-region is a lock.  13-3 looks good.

Maryville is 13-5 in South Region games.  They have games at Huntingdon and at LaGrange.  I respect both of those coaches to field teams who play hard.  I would not consider a Maryville defeat an upset, just LaGrange and Huntingdon "putting it all together" on that night.  Infact, Huntingdon could run the table and clinch no less than tri-champs.   (Huntingdon hosts Fisk and Maryville next weekend.)

For Maryville, going 15-5 in region is probably safe.  Losing a GSAC game and a game in the tourney, 15-7 might be a stretch.

In any case, I am looking at the GSAC to get 2 Pool B's.

See also Hoops Fan's reply #263 from Jan 31st on page 18 of this message board.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Villa Julie lost to one of the provisionals yesterday.  I guess this has no effect, but it can't bode well for their actual match-ups yet to come.

I think Lincoln is in already.  Fisk has a spot just about locked up. 

Maryville is going to have to get focused and win these next two games and one in the GSAC tournament to solidify their spot.

I think it then comes down to Bethany or NebWes for the last spot.  I just can't imagine that the committee would let NebWes in over a potential 20 win team in Bethany.

[Ralph Turner]

...  I think it then comes down to Bethany or NebWes for the last spot.  I just can't imagine that the committee would let NebWes in over a potential 20 win team in Bethany.

My sentiments, exactly, Hoops Fan.

We might see a Pool B getting the "last Pool C bid".

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Can the committee really take NebWes seriously for a Pool B or a Pool C with the schedule they play?  Their QOWI number stinks and they have only 7 d3 games on the schedule.  Rust got overlooked the last few years with a similar situation.

It just seems rediculous that a 6-1 Nebraska Wesleyan squad would get compared favorably to an 18-6 Tufts squad for example (if it pans out that way) or even a 15-5 Bluffton team for that matter?

I don't know exactly, but I'm trying to come up with squads that might be competing for the 18th Pool C spot.

[Ralph Turner]

Hoops Fan, NebWes has one more West Region game against Colorado College which will be an 8-pt QOWI win.

Their QOWI will hang around 9.0.

You have a good point.  I was imagining Neb Wes as the 4th and Bethany as the "5th" when I wrote that.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

The problem is if there is a west coast indy tournament (any word on that by the way), that would probably mean an 8 point win for Nebraska Wesleyan and then either a 7 point loss to Chapman or a 13 point win over Chapman (ironically, the win would drop Chapman below .667).

I just don't know how that would be evaluated.  I know you can't hold distance against an isolated team, but Lincoln, Nebraska is not exactly far from the Iowa schools, etc.  At some point the NCAA has to realize that there should be consequences to not playing the games you're supposed to play.  I know they have a "petition" to not play half your games against d3 opponents, but the criteria should not be so open.  Rust got it together this year; they're going to have 14 region games.  I just don't know what the committee is goign to do.

[joe smith]

Bethany smacks another crappy conference opponent last night by 24 (Thomas More).  Currently they stand 17-4 and 14-4 in the region.  I believe they have 4 more conference games left (3 on the road) including an away game against 2nd place W&J plus the conference tourny.  Do you really think it's likely Bethany could get a pool C bid rather then a pool B?  What are their chances if they happen to get upset in the next 4 games or in the conference tourny?  They should still finish with 20-plus wins either way.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Didn't the PrAC champ get a C bid a year or so ago?  I think there was very much the same case as were currently projecting for this season.  Although, it was based on regional ranking, which I'm not sure Bethany is going to get this year.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

There's lots of extra C bids this year.  We're talking about 6 in-region loss teams getting looks (maybe even 7 in the midwest).  I think Bethany has a good a chance as anyone.  (However, I still think they get that last B bid).

[scottiedoug]

Maryville has a week to get ready for Huntingdon and LaGrange and to figure out what to do without thier second leading scorer and POY candidate in the GSAC who is out with an ACL injury.   I am sure they will be well-prepared but the players have to execute the plan!   If they play Fisk again in the GSAC tournament (at Huntingdon) it will be a real challenge.  Fisk has six seniors and they looked more formidable last night than D2 Carson-Newman, whom Maryville (finally) beat on Monday.   The rivalry between Fisk and Maryville has turned decidedly unfriendly after last night, so this should be interesting.   

[Ralph Turner]

Didn't the PrAC champ get a C bid a year or so ago?  I think there was very much the same case as were currently projecting for this season.  Although, it was based on regional ranking, which I'm not sure Bethany is going to get this year.

Bethany got a Pool B bid in 2005.

There's lots of extra C bids this year. We're talking about 6 in-region loss teams getting looks (maybe even 7 in the midwest). I think Bethany has a good a chance as anyone. (However, I still think they get that last B bid).

I really wonder if Pool C will drop below the 19-6 group (0.760 winning percentage) or even the 18-6 group (0.750 winning percentage) of in-region records.  We have 18 Pool C bids, but that is very far down the list.  That is what we are pondering.

[njlincolnlion]

Lincoln beat Delaware Valley in the Lions final away game for the regular season 126-85.  The remaining games will be played in the friendly confines of Manuel Rivero Hall.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Fisk goes down last night, just adding more fuel to the fire.


I will say it again; outside of Lincoln, absolutely nobody wants a Pool B bid; nobody.