Bumblin' B's

jack johnson · February 24, 2006, 01:56:30 PM

here is my analysis on the teams in the hunt for a pool B bid (with lincoln being a lock):

Fisk QOWI 9.714 (tied-42), 10-4 in region (.714); 19-6 overall
they have a win over Randolph-Macon and split with Maryville; two losses that hurt them are Huntingdon and LaGrange. they are 5-5 in their last 10 and can possibly earn two more wins in their tourney with a possibly key championship against Maryville.

Nebraska Wesleyan QOWI 9.714 (tied-42), 6-1 in region (.857); 9-16 overall
no real key victories that i saw. they did take Whitworth to OT. they are 2-8 in their last 10 and may possibly have a match up with Chapman in their tourney. they do play a limited in region schedule but seems to have no affect on their ncaa tourney consideration if i took that the right way from previous posts.

Bethany QOWI 9.304 (69), 19-4 in region (.826); 22-4 overall
key wins at Muskingum (15-8 in region and OAC member), Keystone (20-6 overall with wins ove VJC, Baptist Bible, and Keuka), also DII power Wheeling Jesuit (has no affect on their consideration for the tourney but does show they can play at an elevated level this year; whereas last year they lost to DII power West Liberty and went on to get blown out in the first round), have key losses to a poor Marietta team and an average Case Western team. they did take CMU to the buzzer losing by 2 and have a 17 game win streak entering their conference championship. even though they have a weak conference they do have a chance to run the table (14-0) which is very hard to do at any level no matter what level of competition you play. they also average margin of victory in their conference of 20+. they also have a Jostens Finalist in Matt Drahos.

Maryville(TN) QOWI 9.300 (70), 14-6 in region (.700); 19-6 overall
they split with Fisk and Oglethorpe. key losses to Huntingdon and Sewanee. they are 6-4 in their last 10. can possibly get two more wins in their conf. tourney and may match up against Fisk in the championship.

Villa Julie QOWI 8.850 (106), 16-4 in region (.800); 18-7 overall
have a win over Keuka and at Hood, also losses to Catholic, Keystone, and St. Mary's. they are 8-2 in their last 10 and plays Keuka tonight.

Clarke QOWI 8.714 (110), 14-7 in region (.667); 16-10 overall
split with Aurora, win over UW-Stevens Point, key loss to Marian and are 8-2 in their last 10. they play Aurora in the conf. championship on saturday.

Chapman QOWI

(not in top 120), 8-4 in region (.667); 18-7 overall
have two big wins over Claremont-Mudd-Scripps and also have a Jostens finalist in Zach Wheatley. they are 9-1 in their last 10 and may face Neb. Wes. in their tourney.

Keuka QOWI

(not in top 120), 13-4 in region (.765); 16-8 overall
win over Baptist Bible but key losses to Keystone (twice) and Villa Julie. plays VJC tonight.

the way i look at it is Lincoln is in and there are a couple of other ways the commitee could look at things. i don't think Keuka has much of a chance even if they do beat VJC tonight. they have three losses to teams Bethany beat by an average of 32 points. if VJC wins tonight there hopes are still alive pending a Bethany loss on saturday. so the loser of tonights VJC/Keuka game is pretty much out of the running with the winner still on the outside looking in. if Clarke losses to Aurora on saturday they are done, but a win puts them in contention with the Nebraska Wesleyan/Chapman winner if they meet in the tourney.

here is one prediction

Pool B #1: Lincoln
Pool B #2: Fisk/Maryville winner if they meet (or the winner of the GSAC tourney)
Pool B #3: Bethany (assuming they win their conference championship on saturday)
Pool B #4: Clarke (with a win over Aurora in the NIIC championship saturday)

prediction two

Pool B #1: Lincoln
Pool B #2: Fisk
Pool B #3: Maryville
Pool B #4: Bethany
*assuming Bethany wins and Fisk and Maryville meet in the GSAC championship with a Maryville victory and maybe even a Clarke loss

prediction three

Pool B #1: Lincoln
Pool B #2: Maryville/Fisk winner
Pool B #3: Bethany
Pool B #4: Nebraska Wesleyan (assuming they face and beat Chapman; and Clarke loses to Aurora

i think for VJC or Keuka to get in or be considered they need a Bethany loss. For Neb. Wes. to get in they a Clarke loss and need to face and beat Chapman. Chapman definetely needs a Clarke loss and a win over Neb. Wes. Clarke needs to win and probably a Maryville loss to get in, and hope the commitee doesn't bring two GSAC teams in. Bethany needs a win. Fisk and Maryville both need the GSAC crown to be a lock (the other may get left behind).

all responses to this are encouraged...let me know if you think differently or have any other situations that i might have missed.

Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan) · February 24, 2006, 01:59:05 PM

I think prediction three is probably the most likely scenario, as sad as that may be. Prediciton two would be what I root for, but I'm not sure it will happen that way.

jack johnson · February 24, 2006, 02:06:40 PM

it may be possible for prediction two to be correct, especially with a Clarke loss. however, even with a Clarke win it could still show correct as long as Maryville defeats Fisk. that would most likely put the final bid between Bethany and Clarke

Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan) · February 24, 2006, 02:40:54 PM

Quote from: jack johnson on February 24, 2006, 02:06:40 PM
it may be possible for prediction two to be correct, especially with a Clarke loss. however, even with a Clarke win it could still show correct as long as Maryville defeats Fisk. that would most likely put the final bid between Bethany and Clarke

Very astute.

crusaders · February 24, 2006, 02:50:36 PM

I think Jack's prediction number 1 is the most likely. There is really no need to worry about a Clarke loss scenario, it's simply not going to happen. Not at home.

Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan) · February 24, 2006, 02:55:57 PM

I just can't see Clarke getting in to this thing. It just doesn't make sense.

Although, that probably means the NCAA will be all over it.

lilphil · February 24, 2006, 02:59:57 PM

If you are considering Clarke, why would you not consider Aurora with a win over Clarke?? They already have a better QOWI
Aurora 8.9 #102
Clarke 8.714 #110
and a win over Clarke in the championship would give them a better regional winning percentage at:
Aurora .667
Clarke .636
I do believe both are a long shot still but if Clarke is a contender for a pool B spot with a win Saturday why wouldn't Aurora be if the pull off the 'upset'??

crusaders · February 24, 2006, 03:07:27 PM

that is very true, i myself was wondering why AU wasn't getting a mention ....but like i stated before, we dont' have to worry about a clarke loss, IT IS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.

but good research lilphil...i've wanted to say something...maybe the fact that Clarke won the NIIC conference already, maybe that is why they aren't getting any talk.

Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan) · February 24, 2006, 03:36:24 PM

Aurora didn't get mentioned because neither team is going to get in!! Even with a loss, both Maryville and Fisk would have the same regional winning percentage as Aurora or Clarke and higher QOWI numbers.

lilphil · February 24, 2006, 03:45:22 PM

I pretty much thought that neither team had a chance, that is why I stated both are still a long shot. Just wanted to see why Clarke was still being mentioned in here if Aurora wasn't, and you pretty much summed it up Hoops Fan!!

crusaders · February 24, 2006, 07:31:21 PM

sounds like lilphil's just a little bitter because clarke won the conference this year and aurora has absolutely no chance of making the tournament.

jack johnson · February 24, 2006, 09:27:02 PM

well Fisk goes down to Huntingdon...do you think this takes them out of consideration and puts Maryville in the drivers seat to control their own destiny, and does Huntingdon now have a chance to sneak in if they can win the GSAC?

Ralph Turner · February 24, 2006, 10:24:27 PM

Jack, I have been out on a limb with my suggesting that Huntingdon could get a Pool B bid if they won the Tourney.

Pool B is a real mess this year. The Neb Wesleyan situation has raised much doubt.

Let's say that Huntingdon does defeat Maryville.

They have a 2-1 record against Maryville.

They will have a record of 4-2 against in-region ranked opponents from previous polls, vesus 3-3 for Maryville.

They will have an identical record with Maryville among common opponents' at 9-4.

I think that the Hawks can make a good case for a Pool B bid.

njlincolnlion · February 24, 2006, 11:00:22 PM

Lincoln beats Mitchell 116-82 with Kyle Myrick leading the way with 30 pts. and 14 assists. Sami Wylie finished with 25 pts, Tyreek Byard had 13 pts, while Darryl White finished with 8 blocks and Thomas Hickson had 11 boards.

Lincoln plays St. Joseph (ME) tomorrow who beat Newbury 67-62 for the championship game tomorrow.

smedindy · February 24, 2006, 11:08:48 PM

Again, except for Lincoln, no one REALLY wants a pool B bid, but three other teams must take them.