Bumblin' B's

[Pat Coleman]

The reason their SOS is so low is because they play La Sierra 5 times.  If Chapman were to only play La Sierra 1 time instead of 5 their in region record would be 13-3 and their OWP would be much, much higher. 

Current Chapman OWP
.361, 399th out of 401.

Chapman OWP with just one La Sierra game instead of four
(The fifth hasn't been played yet and isn't part of the calculation)
.390, 396th out of 401.

Numbers don't coincide with your assertion, sorry.

[Pat Coleman]

Because Chapman beats them 5 times it drives their SOS rank through the floor and to punish someone for winning is not right.

If you're saying that delivering five losses to La Sierra affects La Sierra's record and therefore Chapman's OWP, that's also incorrect. OWP is calculated without the results of the head-to-head games. For purposes of Chapman's OWP, La Sierra is 2-12, not 2-16.

[pabegg]

B still looks like this:

Elms is in, way in.
Scranton is ahead of the pack.
Susquehanna, Maryville, and Chapman still have a chance.

We know that Scranton and Susquehanna will meet in the Landmark final.

If either Maryville or Chapman loses this weekend, they're gone. Otherwise they compete with the loser of the Scranton - Susquehanna game for the final spot.

Who gets in? Based on last year, who knows?

[oldchap]

If Chapman gets into the NCAA playoffs with its pathetic OWP of .355, then the selection committee might as well junk SOS as one of the considered criteria because including Chapman will render SOS numbers meaningless.

The SOS numbers ARE virtually meaningless, in my opinion. The fact that OWP is disconnected from wins and losses doesn't make sense to me. In order to determine whether a team is good or not, you have to look at which teams they beat. Unfortunately for Chapman, their schedule this year is pathetic. However, they have had at least one significant win, against a regionally ranked team, Claremont, and another decent win against Whittier, the SCIAC runner-up. This makes Chapman at least competitive in the playoffs, since probably one of these two teams is going to make the playoffs. Under the Massey ratings, Chapman is currently ranked #34 in division 3, also showing they're very competitive. It doesn't amount to anything though, because Massey counts all games, versus the NCAA which only counts in-region division 3 games. But the Massey ratings, for anyone who knows anything about mathematics, is a far superior statistical model to the very crude OWP/OOWP or even RPI.

At this point, Chapman's fate is in the hands of the NCAA committee. The system is far from perfect, but that's all we've got. I guess there's always next year. With no departing starters and some really outstanding freshmen, Chapman will be even better next year, provided the coaching staff can put together a decent schedule this time.

[Pat Coleman]

If Chapman gets into the NCAA playoffs with its pathetic OWP of .355, then the selection committee might as well junk SOS as one of the considered criteria because including Chapman will render SOS numbers meaningless.

The SOS numbers ARE virtually meaningless, in my opinion. The fact that OWP is disconnected from wins and losses doesn't make sense to me.

It makes perfect sense.

The regional winning percentage already counts your wins and losses. Why should we count that again with the strength of schedule component? That's been tried and discarded in Division III.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

I was always taught you don't count the same numbers twice... your team's regional record and then taking your opponents record with games against your team considered means you are counting the same games twice.

[OxyBob]

OxyBob, in his last couple posts here, seems to be a Chapman hater and that's understandable considering this is the first year Oxy has lost to Chapman in a long time (7 years or so I believe).  The fact that Chapman will go 17-3 and undefeated against SCAIC teams is a statement in and of itself. 

God almighty, where do people come up with their stuff? I'm not a "Chapman hater" by any means, and I am pretty sure I can handle Chapman beating Oxy in a basketball game. I think Mike Bokosky is a good coach and he's had some good teams. One of his forwards, Justin Riley, is one of my favorite players to watch. But this season Chapman has played a really bad schedule, and CU's numbers don't merit a playoff berth. Sorry if you or oldchap don't like hearing it. Chapman beat Claremont (which only has an OWP of .468) in its first game back in November, and since then the Panthers played one really good team -- Whitworth -- and lost. Otherwise CU played no one and beat no one. Insofar as the SCIAC, they shouldn't brag too much about beating 6-19 La Verne twice, 10-15 Redlands twice, 1-24 Caltech, and 11-14 Oxy. Yes, Chapman did beat Whittier, which is 16-9. There are only 10 teams in D-III with OWPs under .400, and Chapman (.355) and Whittier (.390) are two of them, so best keep that Chapman win over Whittier quiet.

If Chapman gets in the playoffs with a .355 OWP, then all the endless talk around here about playing a competitive schedule is out the window, and next year Chapman should schedule La Sierra 7 or 8 times instead of only 4.

OxyBob

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

OB - well put! +k

[oldchap]

If Chapman gets in the playoffs with a .355 OWP, then all the endless talk around here about playing a competitive schedule is out the window

I must be really thick or couldn't read through your endless sarcasms, but the last comment above is the first good point you've made. OK, so if I summarize your thoughts, the main criterion for a team to make the playoffs is a good competitive schedule. And more importantly, rewarding a bad schedule would show a bad example. Point well taken. But easier said than done, when you're an independent and most of the independents you play are perennial losers and you can't schedule Conference teams during the regular season.

I have another question for you OB, if Chapman had a perfect record (or perhaps one loss to Whitworth), would you, in your opinion, consider them for a playoff berth this year? After all, OWP doesn't change whether you win or lose...would a really bad OWP trump a really good record?

[Pat Coleman]

I would consider them in if they had a perfect record.

If they had only lost to Whitworth, I would probably also have them in. Elms has one regional loss against a not-great-but-better schedule.

I might even have them in if they lost only to Whitworth and Whitman.

[Boal]

Because Chapman beats them 5 times it drives their SOS rank through the floor and to punish someone for winning is not right.

If you're saying that delivering five losses to La Sierra affects La Sierra's record and therefore Chapman's OWP, that's also incorrect. OWP is calculated without the results of the head-to-head games. For purposes of Chapman's OWP, La Sierra is 2-12, not 2-16.

Thanks for clarifying that Pat.  It was my mistake to assume that Chapman was driving their already terrible opponents further into the ground.  I'm glad to see that is not the case.

If Chapman gets into the NCAA playoffs with its pathetic OWP of .355, then the selection committee might as well junk SOS as one of the considered criteria because including Chapman will render SOS numbers meaningless.

The SOS numbers ARE virtually meaningless, in my opinion. The fact that OWP is disconnected from wins and losses doesn't make sense to me. In order to determine whether a team is good or not, you have to look at which teams they beat. Unfortunately for Chapman, their schedule this year is pathetic. However, they have had at least one significant win, against a regionally ranked team, Claremont, and another decent win against Whittier, the SCIAC runner-up. This makes Chapman at least competitive in the playoffs, since probably one of these two teams is going to make the playoffs. Under the Massey ratings, Chapman is currently ranked #34 in division 3, also showing they're very competitive. It doesn't amount to anything though, because Massey counts all games, versus the NCAA which only counts in-region division 3 games. But the Massey ratings, for anyone who knows anything about mathematics, is a far superior statistical model to the very crude OWP/OOWP or even RPI.

At this point, Chapman's fate is in the hands of the NCAA committee. The system is far from perfect, but that's all we've got. I guess there's always next year. With no departing starters and some really outstanding freshmen, Chapman will be even better next year, provided the coaching staff can put together a decent schedule this time.

I think you're absolutely right oldchap.  The system is flawed but it is all we have.  I don't agree with you quitting on your team already though.  If they do finish 24-3 it would be hard for any committee to overlook that.  And to oxybob - You mentioned all the teams Chapman beat in the SCIAC and say it's nothing to brag about beating Whittier when they have a terrible OWP as well, but I am going to have to disagree.  Chapman beat every single team they played in the SCIAC regardless of their winning pct.  It is not Chapman's fault all the SCIAC teams performed so poorly.  All they can do is schedule as many SCIAC teams as they can early in the season and beat them as they come along.  I don't know what else you would have them do Oxybob?


And finally I have another question for any of you veterans here on the B's board.  Who would Chapman want to win between Scranton and Susquehanna? 

[Ralph Turner]

I think that the best way for Chapman to get in, is for one Landmark team (Scranton) to be so dominant that it knocks the others below Chapman (and Maryville).

Chapman would be getting the 3rd Pool B bid, behind Elms and Scranton.

(Maryville went 0-3 versus Centre, Depauw and Transylvania, all regionally ranked teams.  They have a win versus USA South favorite (and unranked) Averett.  Averett can pick up 3 more "in-region" wins if it wins the USA South tourney.  Coupled with a loss by South Region #8 Roanoke in the ODAC tourney, Averett might be a regionally ranked team in the final (unseen) regional rankings.  That would give Maryville TN a record versus regionally ranked teams of 1-3.  Watch out for Maryville.)

[Boal]

I think that the best way for Chapman to get in, is for one Landmark team (Scranton) to be so dominant that it knocks the others below Chapman (and Maryville).

Chapman would be getting the 3rd Pool B bid, behind Elms and Scranton.

(Maryville went 0-3 versus Centre, Depauw and Transylvania, all regionally ranked teams.  They have a win versus USA South favorite (and unranked) Averett.  Averett can pick up 3 more "in-region" wins if it wins the USA South tourney.  Coupled with a loss by South Region #8 Roanoke in the ODAC tourney, Averett might be a regionally ranked team in the final (unseen) regional rankings.  That would give Maryville TN a record versus regionally ranked teams of 1-3.  Watch out for Maryville.)

So if Chapman wants that third bid an ideal scenario would be Scranton winning out (pushing Susquehanna out), Averett losing in their USA South tourney (to make sure they don't become ranked and give Maryville TN a win against a regionally ranked team) , and a small act of God on Monday.  Is that the best case scenario or are there more factors?

And since Chapman is 1-1 versus regionally ranked teams isn't that better than Maryville being 1-3 against regionally ranked teams?

[OxyBob]

All they can do is schedule as many SCIAC teams as they can early in the season and beat them as they come along.  I don't know what else you would have them do Oxybob?

Here's a sampling of D-III teams which made an appearance in Southern California this season: St. Thomas (26-0), Buena Vista (23-2), UMass-Dartmouth (23-3), Gwynedd-Mercy (21-5), Amherst (20-5), Lawrence (17-6), Carthage (15-10), Willamette (12-11), Central (13-13), Babson (13-13).

And who did Chapman schedule? Swarthmore (3-21).

OxyBob

[pabegg]

On further review, here's how Pool B stands on Thursday morning:

Six teams are Pool B candidates, for three spots.
Elms is a certainty
Scranton is also ranked; they play Susquehanna in the Landmark final and I think the winner locks up a bid.
Maryville TN and Chapman need to win all of their games against weak opponents to contend with the Scranton/Susquehanna loser for the 3rd bid.
Becker is a wild card; if they upset Elms in the NECC tournament, they could make as good a case as anyone for #3.