Bumblin' B's

[Gregory Sager]

All they can do is schedule as many SCIAC teams as they can early in the season and beat them as they come along.  I don't know what else you would have them do Oxybob?

Here's a sampling of D-III teams which made an appearance in Southern California this season: St. Thomas (26-0), Buena Vista (23-2), UMass-Dartmouth (23-3), Gwynedd-Mercy (21-5), Amherst (20-5), Lawrence (17-6), Carthage (15-10), Willamette (12-11), Central (13-13), Babson (13-13).

And who did Chapman schedule? Swarthmore (3-21).

Only six of those eleven teams are relevant to this discussion: St. Thomas, Buena Vista, Lawrence, Carthage, Willamette, and Central. The other five are, or would be, non-regional opponents for Chapman and therefore don't fit into any of the tournament criteria.

(Let's not forget that Chapman also played St. John's, Whitworth, and Whitman as well.)

[OxyBob]

All they can do is schedule as many SCIAC teams as they can early in the season and beat them as they come along.  I don't know what else you would have them do Oxybob?

Here's a sampling of D-III teams which made an appearance in Southern California this season: St. Thomas (26-0), Buena Vista (23-2), UMass-Dartmouth (23-3), Gwynedd-Mercy (21-5), Amherst (20-5), Lawrence (17-6), Carthage (15-10), Willamette (12-11), Central (13-13), Babson (13-13).

And who did Chapman schedule? Swarthmore (3-21).

Only six of those eleven teams are relevant to this discussion: St. Thomas, Buena Vista, Lawrence, Carthage, Willamette, and Central. The other five are, or would be, non-regional opponents for Chapman and therefore don't fit into any of the tournament criteria.

(Let's not forget that Chapman also played St. John's, Whitworth, and Whitman as well.)

I agree that some of the teams mentioned don't fit into the primary tournament criteria (though they do fall within the secondary criteria), but that wasn't entirely the point. I overlooked St. John's, which helps Chapman's sorry ass OWP. Chapman lost to 20-5 Whitworthpirates and 9-16 Whitman.

OxyBob

[Ralph Turner]

I think that the best way for Chapman to get in, is for one Landmark team (Scranton) to be so dominant that it knocks the others below Chapman (and Maryville).

Chapman would be getting the 3rd Pool B bid, behind Elms and Scranton.

(Maryville went 0-3 versus Centre, Depauw and Transylvania, all regionally ranked teams.  They have a win versus USA South favorite (and unranked) Averett.  Averett can pick up 3 more "in-region" wins if it wins the USA South tourney.  Coupled with a loss by South Region #8 Roanoke in the ODAC tourney, Averett might be a regionally ranked team in the final (unseen) regional rankings.  That would give Maryville TN a record versus regionally ranked teams of 1-3.  Watch out for Maryville.)

So if Chapman wants that third bid an ideal scenario would be Scranton winning out (pushing Susquehanna out), Averett losing in their USA South tourney (to make sure they don't become ranked and give Maryville TN a win against a regionally ranked team) , and a small act of God on Monday.  Is that the best case scenario or are there more factors?

And since Chapman is 1-1 versus regionally ranked teams isn't that better than Maryville being 1-3 against regionally ranked teams?

I am not sure about that.

• In-region results versus regionally ranked teams.

Maryville has a 6-point road loss at Transy, a 2-point home loss and a 6-point road loss to Centre and a 39-point home win over Averett.

Chapman has a 15-point loss to Whitworth at neutral Redlands and the five-point road win at CMS.

Which "results" look stronger?

[Former Player/ Former Coach]

I thought I would chime in on this discussion and shed a little light........Chapman's schedule sucks but look at their situation.  They are an independent.  They could schedule all 25 of their games before Jan. 10 or 12 when the sciac starts.  They play in as many tournaments as they can so they can play different opponents.  They didn't schedule swarthmore, (Whittier Tournament and one of the La Sierra games was in the Whittier Tournament also) but still they played them too many times.

I Guess, here my question.......How do you know what a teams record is going to be when you schedule the games one year in advance.  They have to schedule 25 games versus anyone in a conference only has to worry about 7 or so.

NO excuses......They could schedule a tougher schedule, but if they lose 5 or 6 games in a tougher schedule are they even going to get a look or are they getting the best look now with the schedule he keeps putting together.  As a former chapman assistant that has bumped head with Sager and Coleman........I've been emotionally attached to this discussion and being removed from it now.....They are right and you guys in the room should listen to what they are telling you!  Chapman's schedule is hindering their ability to really get a "true" playoff look, but do they have a lot of options as a west regional independent?

[elfinley]

Chapmans schedule is not good, but some games they played were out of their control.

5 games vs. La Sierra: If you check the schedule, you will see CU only has LSU scheduled twice. If you add the Round Robin tournaey in january, that would be 3 times. The first time these 2 teams played, it was in Whittier's tournament in after the new year. CU was supposed to play another D3 team, but WC for some reason could not find a team and brought in LSU late. CU wanted to play WC instead looking at the possibilty of playing LSU 5 times, but WC declined. The post-seaon tournament was supposed to have 4 teams, but Nebraska Weslyan didn't want to travel, so the tournament has 3 teams(CU, LSU, and UCSC) play each other over the next 3 days.

SCIAC: Cal Lu was supposed to be a CU opponent, but CalLu wanted to changed the date and eventually pulled out. I think they are on the schedule next year along with Pomona Pitzer too!

Bible Colleges: I am friends with one of the coaches and give him crap about them scheduling these teams, but it is hard to find regional opponents after christmas. Conference teams dont want to play during conference(Vanguard did, but probably thought that game would be easier), and there are not any other teams that would help the in-region schedule.

I am not here to bash anyone, or the teams I mentioned, I graduated from CU, always been a big CU basketball fan, a freind of one of the coaches, and send my kids to their summer camps(which are fantastic by the way. Hopefully this gives some insight to why they play who they play.

OxyBob: Dont always agree with you, but love reading your posts. Informative, passionate, and fun at times!!

[Pat Coleman]

Chapman's schedule is hindering their ability to really get a "true" playoff look, but do they have a lot of options as a west regional independent?

Yes, I think they could do better even with their independent status and the fact that SCIAC teams don't want to play them during the conference season.

Chapman scheduled just four games in November, which now has 16 permissible playing dates, and nine games in the first full month of the season.

The Lee Fulmer tournament is good for Chapman because it lets them pick up three games. I know when you have to schedule 25 that that is a must. But let's take that one step further -- Chapman should play in the Cactus Jam in Phoenix every year. This is a bus trip for Chapman, five hours each way, whereas almost everyone else has to fly to Phoenix. That takes a huge cost out of the trip. That is also three games, and the tournament organizers are willing to help arrange the bracket to maximize regional game opportunities. (I know this because one year they contacted me for recommendations for their bracket.) Northwest Conference teams traditionally come to this tournament. Chapman needs to play those teams.

If you are going to tie your schedule so closely to the SCIAC, well, you get what you get. Even though the SCIAC may be a little down this year compared to previous years, it has never been a spectacular league. It might be middle of the pack among the 40-some D-III conferences at its best.

Does Chapman not host one single tournament of its own outside of the independent tournaments? Chapman is not making the most of the snowbird opportunities.

[Boal]

I think that the best way for Chapman to get in, is for one Landmark team (Scranton) to be so dominant that it knocks the others below Chapman (and Maryville).

Chapman would be getting the 3rd Pool B bid, behind Elms and Scranton.

(Maryville went 0-3 versus Centre, Depauw and Transylvania, all regionally ranked teams.  They have a win versus USA South favorite (and unranked) Averett.  Averett can pick up 3 more "in-region" wins if it wins the USA South tourney.  Coupled with a loss by South Region #8 Roanoke in the ODAC tourney, Averett might be a regionally ranked team in the final (unseen) regional rankings.  That would give Maryville TN a record versus regionally ranked teams of 1-3.  Watch out for Maryville.)

So if Chapman wants that third bid an ideal scenario would be Scranton winning out (pushing Susquehanna out), Averett losing in their USA South tourney (to make sure they don't become ranked and give Maryville TN a win against a regionally ranked team) , and a small act of God on Monday.  Is that the best case scenario or are there more factors?

And since Chapman is 1-1 versus regionally ranked teams isn't that better than Maryville being 1-3 against regionally ranked teams?

I am not sure about that.

• In-region results versus regionally ranked teams.

Maryville has a 6-point road loss at Transy, a 2-point home loss and a 6-point road loss to Centre and a 39-point home win over Averett.

Chapman has a 15-point loss to Whitworth at neutral Redlands and the five-point road win at CMS.

Which "results" look stronger?

As far as my limited knowledge goes, the committee does not count the amount teams won or lost by...  That would tell me that Chapman's 1-1 looks much better than Maryville potential 1-3. 

And in my opinion Maryville at 1-3 still looks worse because Averett wasn't a ranked team when Maryville blew them out.  I don't know why Maryville would be given credit for a win against a regionally ranked team when they weren't ranked at that time.  Does this work retroactively?  For instance lets say hypothetically Whitworth drops out of the regional rankings, would Chapman's regional record go to 1-0?  Again in my limited knowledge this seems unfair.  If a team is ever ranked through the entire year, even if they are ranked in the very last week, then every team they play has a greater chance of making the tournament.

I acknowledge the fact that CMS may or may not have been ranked regionally when Chapman defeated them either, but I do not know that for sure either way.  If they were not ranked at the time and Chapman is being given this regionally ranked win just as Maryville (potentially) is, then they are in the same boat.  No favoritism here 

[Hugenerd]

I think that the best way for Chapman to get in, is for one Landmark team (Scranton) to be so dominant that it knocks the others below Chapman (and Maryville).

Chapman would be getting the 3rd Pool B bid, behind Elms and Scranton.

(Maryville went 0-3 versus Centre, Depauw and Transylvania, all regionally ranked teams.  They have a win versus USA South favorite (and unranked) Averett.  Averett can pick up 3 more "in-region" wins if it wins the USA South tourney.  Coupled with a loss by South Region #8 Roanoke in the ODAC tourney, Averett might be a regionally ranked team in the final (unseen) regional rankings.  That would give Maryville TN a record versus regionally ranked teams of 1-3.  Watch out for Maryville.)

So if Chapman wants that third bid an ideal scenario would be Scranton winning out (pushing Susquehanna out), Averett losing in their USA South tourney (to make sure they don't become ranked and give Maryville TN a win against a regionally ranked team) , and a small act of God on Monday.  Is that the best case scenario or are there more factors?

And since Chapman is 1-1 versus regionally ranked teams isn't that better than Maryville being 1-3 against regionally ranked teams?

I am not sure about that.

• In-region results versus regionally ranked teams.

Maryville has a 6-point road loss at Transy, a 2-point home loss and a 6-point road loss to Centre and a 39-point home win over Averett.

Chapman has a 15-point loss to Whitworth at neutral Redlands and the five-point road win at CMS.

Which "results" look stronger?

As far as my limited knowledge goes, the committee does not count the amount teams won or lost by...  That would tell me that Chapman's 1-1 looks much better than Maryville potential 1-3. 

And in my opinion Maryville at 1-3 still looks worse because Averett wasn't a ranked team when Maryville blew them out.  I don't know why Maryville would be given credit for a win against a regionally ranked team when they weren't ranked at that time.  Does this work retroactively?  For instance lets say hypothetically Whitworth drops out of the regional rankings, would Chapman's regional record go to 1-0?  Again in my limited knowledge this seems unfair.  If a team is ever ranked through the entire year, even if they are ranked in the very last week, then every team they play has a greater chance of making the tournament.

I acknowledge the fact that CMS may or may not have been ranked regionally when Chapman defeated them either, but I do not know that for sure either way.  If they were not ranked at the time and Chapman is being given this regionally ranked win just as Maryville (potentially) is, then they are in the same boat.  No favoritism here 

Only the rankings at the time of the selection matter.  Also, the d3hoops.com rankings dont matter, only the NCAA regional rankings.

Also, I dont see what is "unfair" about using the teams final record to gauge how good that team is.  Just because I beat a 10-0 team in November or December doesnt mean they are a good team if they lose 10 of their last 15.  It could mean they played an easy early schedule.  Either way, only the final rankings the committee uses (which are not public) are what matter.

[KnightSlappy]

There are no rankings until February so no one was ranked before that.  Those games, obviously are counted as vs regionally ranked.  Only the final rankings count, and we don't see those.  The first four sets of ranknings are meaningless in the eyes of the NCAA.

[Pat Coleman]

As far as my limited knowledge goes, the committee does not count the amount teams won or lost by...  That would tell me that Chapman's 1-1 looks much better than Maryville potential 1-3. 

The handbook says "results" as quoted above. That leaves some room for leeway.

It's also worth pondering whether it's better to have played four games against regionally ranked opponents than two. What we've heard from the committee in recent years is that people are taking "results" to mean "winning percentage" and that that is not the case.

[OxyBob]

5 games vs. La Sierra: If you check the schedule, you will see CU only has LSU scheduled twice. If you add the Round Robin tournaey in january, that would be 3 times. The first time these 2 teams played, it was in Whittier's tournament in after the new year. CU was supposed to play another D3 team, but WC for some reason could not find a team and brought in LSU late. CU wanted to play WC instead looking at the possibilty of playing LSU 5 times, but WC declined. The post-seaon tournament was supposed to have 4 teams, but Nebraska Weslyan didn't want to travel, so the tournament has 3 teams(CU, LSU, and UCSC) play each other over the next 3 days.

First off, I don't have any problem with Chapman playing La Sierra. LSU is a local in-region D-III team and CU should play them and also UC Santa Cruz, another nearby D-III team. But, let's face it, at this point LSU is little more than schedule filler, so when you agree to play LSU twice, then play them 2 more times in holiday tournaments, and then play them again in the D-III Independents Tournament, well, prepare to be criticized.

Bible Colleges: I am friends with one of the coaches and give him crap about them scheduling these teams, but it is hard to find regional opponents after christmas. Conference teams dont want to play during conference(Vanguard did, but probably thought that game would be easier), and there are not any other teams that would help the in-region schedule.

I don't have any problem with Chapman playing GSAC teams. It takes some sack for a D-III school to schedule, for instance, Concordia, Cal Baptist, Biola, or Azusa Pacific, or to play in Westmont's Tom Byron Classic, and a little less for Chapman to schedule Hope International (which is the rough equivalent of La Verne) or Vanguard (which is about the equivalent of Claremont). As for playing West Coast Baptist, again I have no problem playing them, but when you schedule two games against WCB and a game against Golden State Baptist to boot, well, prepare to be further criticized.

My impression from speaking with Coach Bokosky and others in the Chapman athletics department is that Chapman intends to get bigger, step up in class, and eventually go D-I à la Seattle U. If that's the case then the Panthers should perhaps start scheduling better teams.

OxyBob

[elfinley]

OB,

I see your point, and I agree. Like I said before, I give my crap all the time for some of the teams they play. They do in fact need to improve their schedule and critizing in some cases, is well deserved.

I just wanted to clarify that it was not CU's intention to play such an inferior schedule. It is hard to tell what a team will be like a year from now.

[Pat Coleman]

If Chapman's MBB program can't scrounge up enough money or ambition to take a five-hour bus trip to Phoenix, how will they get to Division I?

[oldchap]

I don't have any problem with Chapman playing GSAC teams. It takes some sack for a D-III school to schedule, for instance, Concordia, Cal Baptist, Biola, or Azusa Pacific, or to play in Westmont's Tom Byron Classic, and a little less for Chapman to schedule Hope International (which is the rough equivalent of La Verne) or Vanguard (which is about the equivalent of Claremont).

This is of course a matter of opinion, but I disagree with you on these points, OB. My opinion is based on my personal experience of seeing all the games this year. While Hope and Vanguard are traditionally at the bottom of the GSAC rankings, they are bigger and more athletic than all D3 teams I've seen so far. Hope isn't a La Verne. No way. I bet Hope would beat La Verne every single time they would play them. I think Hope would give a hard time to the upper echelon of the SCIAC teams such as Cal Lu. And as far as Vanguard, I couldn't disagree more. I saw both Vanguard vs. CU and Claremont vs. CU. The performance that Chapman had against Vanguard that day was exceptional and I'm not sure they could repeat it consistently. On the other hand, Claremont was hard to beat but I'm sure that Chapman could do it again, much more easily anyway. It all comes down to probabilities. In my view, Chapman had a 30% chance of beating Vanguard, while they had a 60% chance of beating CMS.

Speculation? Sure! And the Committee doesn't give a crap, I know that. But I'm sure a lot of people who were at both games would also agree with me. My point has always been, CU has the quality required to be in the playoffs this year. Whether the process gives them a chance is another story.

[Pat Coleman]

Whether their schedule makers give them a chance is the real issue, not the process.

We have this discussion seemingly every year about Chapman. They have been slow to pick up the NCAA system. It's as if they don't care.

Heck, in 2001 on Selection Sunday on Hoopsville we talked to Chapman and at 20-5, they weren't getting in and we knew it. The selection process hasn't changed much since then. And yet, here we are.