Bumblin' B's

[AO]

come on guys, after a disappointing start to the season, my squad's going to need a little help from the pool B gurus.  This was not what I had in mind!   To atone for this, please adjust the rankings to account for the fact that Northwestern currently has the best win out of any of the pool b's with a road win over #12 st. norberts.

I gotta tell you...

It is that Northwestern MN road win over SNC that has me doubting whether SNC deserves to be ranked as high as it is.

I think that your best chance is for Northwestern to run the table and conference tourney.  I believe that you need some help from other teams beating Chapman and Maryville to knock down their numbers, too.

You might be right about St. Norbert, but you have to rank a 1 loss team somewhere after they scheduled the WIAC, CCIW, Chicago and then put my squad as the opener in their holiday tourney.  I pretty much gave up pool B hope after the loss to Augsburg, but they certainly should be favored by double digits in every game from here on out.

[John Gleich]

come on guys, after a disappointing start to the season, my squad's going to need a little help from the pool B gurus.  This was not what I had in mind!   To atone for this, please adjust the rankings to account for the fact that Northwestern currently has the best win out of any of the pool b's with a road win over #12 st. norberts.

I gotta tell you...

It is that Northwestern MN road win over SNC that has me doubting whether SNC deserves to be ranked as high as it is.

I think that your best chance is for Northwestern to run the table and conference tourney.  I believe that you need some help from other teams beating Chapman and Maryville to knock down their numbers, too.

You might be right about St. Norbert, but you have to rank a 1 loss team somewhere after they scheduled the WIAC, CCIW, Chicago and then put my squad as the opener in their holiday tourney.  I pretty much gave up pool B hope after the loss to Augsburg, but they certainly should be favored by double digits in every game from here on out.

All Norberts can do is beat who they play... but that doesn't necessarily mean that, if teams ahead of them keep losing, that they really deserve to matriculate all the way to the top of the rankings.  Their OWP/OOWP is .408/.545 (compare that with Stevens Point, who also only has one loss and has an OWP/OOWP of .626/.568).  Point is likely going to lose again this year because they're getting tested pretty much night in and night out by good WIAC teams.  Even if Point would lose to, say, Oshkosh, who SNC beat, does that mean SNC should jump ahead of the Pointers?

I think that Norberts should stay at about the #15 range until they play someone who is having more success this year.  The loss to Northwestern is a bad loss for them because Northwestern hasn't played any real top teams, either. 

What Northwestern can do to improve its stock is to win out.  They can't do anything against their OWP/OOWP, which unfortunately for them is pretty low (.425/.486), but they can control their own winning percentage and they can cheer like heck for the teams they've played. 

To be honest, the Northland loss is a pretty bad one.  But apart from that, they've lost to some average teams from pretty good conferences, and they beat the top team from an average (this year at least) conference.

[AO]

come on guys, after a disappointing start to the season, my squad's going to need a little help from the pool B gurus.  This was not what I had in mind!   To atone for this, please adjust the rankings to account for the fact that Northwestern currently has the best win out of any of the pool b's with a road win over #12 st. norberts.

I gotta tell you...

It is that Northwestern MN road win over SNC that has me doubting whether SNC deserves to be ranked as high as it is.

I think that your best chance is for Northwestern to run the table and conference tourney.  I believe that you need some help from other teams beating Chapman and Maryville to knock down their numbers, too.

You might be right about St. Norbert, but you have to rank a 1 loss team somewhere after they scheduled the WIAC, CCIW, Chicago and then put my squad as the opener in their holiday tourney.  I pretty much gave up pool B hope after the loss to Augsburg, but they certainly should be favored by double digits in every game from here on out.

All Norberts can do is beat who they play... but that doesn't necessarily mean that, if teams ahead of them keep losing, that they really deserve to matriculate all the way to the top of the rankings.  Their OWP/OOWP is .408/.545 (compare that with Stevens Point, who also only has one loss and has an OWP/OOWP of .626/.568).  Point is likely going to lose again this year because they're getting tested pretty much night in and night out by good WIAC teams.  Even if Point would lose to, say, Oshkosh, who SNC beat, does that mean SNC should jump ahead of the Pointers?

I think that Norberts should stay at about the #15 range until they play someone who is having more success this year.  The loss to Northwestern is a bad loss for them because Northwestern hasn't played any real top teams, either. 

If Steven's Point loses to 7-9 Oshkosh, I could see them dropping to 10th or so, and then another loss to whitewater could drop them below SNC.  The NCAA would probably put Point ahead of SNC in terms of OWP, but the d3hoops poll would have to reward Norberts if they win out.

What Northwestern can do to improve its stock is to win out.  They can't do anything against their OWP/OOWP, which unfortunately for them is pretty low (.425/.486), but they can control their own winning percentage and they can cheer like heck for the teams they've played. 

To be honest, the Northland loss is a pretty bad one.  But apart from that, they've lost to some average teams from pretty good conferences, and they beat the top team from an average (this year at least) conference.

The OWP/OOWP is going to be very bad as the UMAC had very few in-region wins in the non-conference season. 
Back when Northwestern was NAIA we played in a sort of independent qualifier tournament to decide who would advance to the national tournament, as it's pretty hard to compare Northwesten to Elms or Maryville when we have no common opponents, but I can't complain.  Northwestern had every opportunity to get a bid by winning all the games they were favored in, and they came up short.

[Gregory Sager]

It will come as no consolation to Northwestern's seniors should the Eagles fail to win a Pool B bid this season, but (Ralph, correct me if I'm mistaken) next season the UMAC will automatically qualify for a Pool A berth and thereby make the ever-shrinking Pool B a moot point for Northwestern and its fellow UMAC schools.

[John Gleich]

come on guys, after a disappointing start to the season, my squad's going to need a little help from the pool B gurus.  This was not what I had in mind!   To atone for this, please adjust the rankings to account for the fact that Northwestern currently has the best win out of any of the pool b's with a road win over #12 st. norberts.

I gotta tell you...

It is that Northwestern MN road win over SNC that has me doubting whether SNC deserves to be ranked as high as it is.

I think that your best chance is for Northwestern to run the table and conference tourney.  I believe that you need some help from other teams beating Chapman and Maryville to knock down their numbers, too.

You might be right about St. Norbert, but you have to rank a 1 loss team somewhere after they scheduled the WIAC, CCIW, Chicago and then put my squad as the opener in their holiday tourney.  I pretty much gave up pool B hope after the loss to Augsburg, but they certainly should be favored by double digits in every game from here on out.

All Norberts can do is beat who they play... but that doesn't necessarily mean that, if teams ahead of them keep losing, that they really deserve to matriculate all the way to the top of the rankings.  Their OWP/OOWP is .408/.545 (compare that with Stevens Point, who also only has one loss and has an OWP/OOWP of .626/.568).  Point is likely going to lose again this year because they're getting tested pretty much night in and night out by good WIAC teams.  Even if Point would lose to, say, Oshkosh, who SNC beat, does that mean SNC should jump ahead of the Pointers?

I think that Norberts should stay at about the #15 range until they play someone who is having more success this year.  The loss to Northwestern is a bad loss for them because Northwestern hasn't played any real top teams, either. 

If Steven's Point loses to 7-9 Oshkosh, I could see them dropping to 10th or so, and then another loss to whitewater could drop them below SNC.  The NCAA would probably put Point ahead of SNC in terms of OWP, but the d3hoops poll would have to reward Norberts if they win out.

No chance.  A loss to Oshkosh would hurt the Pointers... but it wouldn't drop them 9 places.  There isn't a precedent for that... actually, there's a precendent against it.  Transylvania beat Wash U and the Bears only dropped to 3rd and retained 4 of their 25 first place votes.  They (Wash U) has since lost again, so they may drop a bit more, but they'll stay in the top 8 for sure, if not the top 6.

And D3Hoops would NOT have to award Norberts if they keep beating terrible teams... Average teams are supposed to beat terrible ones, so if SNC keeps beating bad teams, then it doesn't mean they're automatically great, it means they're automatically average.

Now, the may be better than average... but there's no guarantee and that's why we need to see them against a top foe.  It's not out of the realm of possibilities to keep them at, say, #15... because there aren't marquee wins to push them above that mark.

I'm not sure if you're familiar with the Peter Principle... but it states that an employee will rise to his level of imcompetence (sooner or later he'll get up to a job he just can't do).  Greg Sager modified it to be the St. Peter Principle a few years ago, after Gustavus Adolphus rose to a rank unbecoming of their true ability.  They'd beaten enough bad teams to have a record that appeared remarkable... but it wasn't, under closer scrutiny.  Just because team A keeps winning and team B, C, and D all lose, doesn't mean that A should automatically matriculate above B, C, and D... because it doesn't take into account B, C, and D's opponents.

And even if teams B, C, and D lost to less-than-excellent teams, you still have to look at the rest of their opponents.  If they have to battle against great teams week in and week out, then they may falter and catch a not-so-good team who's pumped up because they're playing a front runner, and lose.

I don't want to necessarily go so far as to say that you need to compare all of these teams at their absolute best (because they aren't going to achieve that most nights)... but you do have to look at the body of work instead of just one game.

What Northwestern can do to improve its stock is to win out.  They can't do anything against their OWP/OOWP, which unfortunately for them is pretty low (.425/.486), but they can control their own winning percentage and they can cheer like heck for the teams they've played. 

To be honest, the Northland loss is a pretty bad one.  But apart from that, they've lost to some average teams from pretty good conferences, and they beat the top team from an average (this year at least) conference.

The OWP/OOWP is going to be very bad as the UMAC had very few in-region wins in the non-conference season. 
Back when Northwestern was NAIA we played in a sort of independent qualifier tournament to decide who would advance to the national tournament, as it's pretty hard to compare Northwesten to Elms or Maryville when we have no common opponents, but I can't complain.  Northwestern had every opportunity to get a bid by winning all the games they were favored in, and they came up short.

The rubrics of OWP and OOWP aren't perfect... but it allows for the selectors to have some bearing on how good a 12-1 record is.  If you beat 12 0-win teams and your sole loss is to a team that only beat you, that doesn't look very good...  If, however, you've given 12 teams their only loss and you've lost to an undefeated team, that looks REALLY good (provided, of course, that the OOWP isn't very close to zero, or we're back to the first situation again).

Unfortunately it doesn't help them this year, but Northwestern (and the rest of the UMAC) is getting an auto bid next year.  They're going to get at least one team in every year, no matter how good or bad they are.  And if they're really good, they might get more than one.

[AO]

It will come as no consolation to Northwestern's seniors should the Eagles fail to win a Pool B bid this season, but (Ralph, correct me if I'm mistaken) next season the UMAC will automatically qualify for a Pool A berth and thereby make the ever-shrinking Pool B a moot point for Northwestern and its fellow UMAC schools.

Yes, Pool A is next year for the UMAC.  Perhaps by that time the NCAA can figure out a way to keep us out of the bracket of death known as the West?  (the inclusion of the UMAC into the bracket of death, might make it a little less deadly)

[John Gleich]

Perhaps by that time the NCAA can figure out a way to keep us out of the bracket of death known as the West?  (the inclusion of the UMAC into the bracket of death, might make it a little less deadly)

We're all hoping the bracket of death is a thing of the past...  Unfortunately, the entity that is the NCAA is, well, us.  The member schools make up the selection committees and so, unfortunately, there's nobody to blame but ourselves.

Now, that being said, it seems like there are some fairly easy solutions to some of the balance problems.  The imbalance can't be done away with completely (especially when there is such a high concentration of really good teams in a relatively small geographic area), but it does seem like some creativity could be used to provide a better balance.  If there is going to be a flight (or two or three) necessary for the Sweet 16, then move a quad out of the Bracket of Death from the outset.

Unfortunately, the next-closest bracket geographically is typically comprised of Great Lakes teams... and there have been some great imbalances there too in the not-too-distant past...

The women's bracket has managed to get a much more equitable bracket.  It is absolutely possible... I'm just not sure how the selection committee gets the message from member schools that they want a true championship, not 4 regional tournaments where the winners meet for a 4 team tournament and the winner is declared the National Champ.

[wizbegs1304]

Does the UMAC get an automatic bid next year?

[Ralph Turner]

Does the UMAC get an automatic bid next year?

The UMAC and the NECC are in line to receive their automatic bids in the 2010-11 season.

We should know definitely by May 2010.

[batteredbard]

I love the work but in breaking it down but was curious as to how the numbers reflect games against D2 and NAIA teams? I've never been extremely clear as to how those games are judged anyway but was wondering if they are reflected in the OWP and OOWP? Or if its just games against D3 schools reflected in those numbers?

[Mr. Ypsi]

I love the work but in breaking it down but was curious as to how the numbers reflect games against D2 and NAIA teams? I've never been extremely clear as to how those games are judged anyway but was wondering if they are reflected in the OWP and OOWP? Or if its just games against D3 schools reflected in those numbers?

OWP and OOWP not only do not count non-d3 games, they also exclude non-region d3 games.  See the appropriate section of FAQ for more details.

[John Gleich]

I love the work but in breaking it down but was curious as to how the numbers reflect games against D2 and NAIA teams? I've never been extremely clear as to how those games are judged anyway but was wondering if they are reflected in the OWP and OOWP? Or if its just games against D3 schools reflected in those numbers?

OWP and OOWP not only do not count non-d3 games, they also exclude non-region d3 games.  See the appropriate section of FAQ for more details.

http://d3hoops.com/faq  This would be the FAQ that Mr. Y is referring to, specifically THIS .  Look at 4. Albion.

The specific criteria for at-large bids and NCAA tournament seeding is found HERE.  The only place that non-D-III opponents would matter would be as a secondary criteria when the two teams that are being compared that have common opponent (• Results versus all common opponents).  

Other than that, though, those games only count for pride or overall records (neither of which don't matter in terms of tournament selection).

EDIT:  One of the things that makes selection of Pool B teams tough to select is that they DON'T necessarily have very many regional D-III games, so the body of work is not extensive.  How do you compare a team that's 10-2 and one that's 5-1?

Some Pool B teams have been absolute pushovers when they're matched up against other NCAA tournament teams.  Lately they've been better and, frankly, there have been fewer Pool B teams as conferences have gotten Pool A bids.

[Mr. Ypsi]

I love the work but in breaking it down but was curious as to how the numbers reflect games against D2 and NAIA teams? I've never been extremely clear as to how those games are judged anyway but was wondering if they are reflected in the OWP and OOWP? Or if its just games against D3 schools reflected in those numbers?

OWP and OOWP not only do not count non-d3 games, they also exclude non-region d3 games.  See the appropriate section of FAQ for more details.

http://d3hoops.com/faq  This would be the FAQ that Mr. Y is referring to, specifically THIS .  Look at 4. Albion.

The specific criteria for at-large bids and NCAA tournament seeding is found HERE.  The only place that non-D-III opponents would matter would be as a secondary criteria when the two teams that are being compared that have common opponent (• Results versus all common opponents).  

Other than that, though, those games only count for pride or overall records (neither of which don't matter in terms of tournament selection).

EDIT:  One of the things that makes selection of Pool B teams tough to select is that they DON'T necessarily have very many regional D-III games, so the body of work is not extensive.  How do you compare a team that's 10-2 and one that's 5-1?

Some Pool B teams have been absolute pushovers when they're matched up against other NCAA tournament teams.  Lately they've been better and, frankly, there have been fewer Pool B teams as conferences have gotten Pool A bids.

First sentence: True that, which is why they're the "Bumblin' Bs" (with the frequent exception of Maryville).

Second sentence:  Also true.  We may have to change the name of the thread to the "Disappearin' Bs".

[scottiedoug]

Maybe you non-Southeastern posters with pull at D3 schools can encourage coaches to schedule Maryville so the Scots will be better prepared to represent the Bumblin's in post season....

Nobody seems all that anxious to play MC in TN so the Scots wind up playing (and beating) all the neighboring NAIA and D2 schools, nono of which counts for anything except experience and local bragging rights.

[Ron Domino]

Maybe you non-Southeastern posters with pull at D3 schools can encourage coaches to schedule Maryville so the Scots will be better prepared to represent the Bumblin's in post season....

Nobody seems all that anxious to play MC in TN so the Scots wind up playing (and beating) all the neighboring NAIA and D2 schools, nono of which counts for anything except experience and local bragging rights.

Its a no win situation for any teams to schedule a Pool B team that can legitamately knock them off.  It could hurt their in region rankings/record and if they don't win their conference tourney, essentially hurt their Pool C chances. 

If I were a coach of a team that has the potential to get in the tourney, no way I would schedule an in region game with a pool B that has the potential to beat me.