Bumblin' B's

[njlincolnlion]

Hoops Fan:

I knew the LVC loss would hurt the Lions.  I'm hoping that they win out so they won't have to wait for their "bubble to burst" like last year.  

Ralph:

Thanks for the NCAA info regarding 4 slots.  I hope Lion plays like they know it's only 3 slots and not let up for the rest of the season.  This road schedule Lincoln has is tough !!!, but what can you do about it?

[njlincolnlion]

 Congratulations to Lincoln's Sami Wylie on being named the "Association of DIII Independents" Men's Player of the Week.  Wylie is ranked 15th in the nation on three pointers averaging 3.9 a game.

[Gregory Sager]

The one monkey wrench could be Nebraska Wesleyan.  They declared for d3, but they will only have 7 d3 games, and will have a record of 6-1 (a game with Colorado College is still on the docket, but that's a w, no problem).  Their competition hasn't been that great and I just don't know how the committee will handle it.

Nebraska Wesleyan's D3 competition hasn't been great, but in their league (the NAIA-dominated Great Plains Athletic Conference) the Prairie Wolves are getting pummeled. They're 1-6 and tied for 12th (and last) place in that league.

[njlincolnlion]

Gregory:

Thanks for the info on Nebraska Weselyan.  You are right, I don't think they will be going anywhere in the post season.

So Right now it seems like the battle for the 4 slots are Lincoln, FISK, Maryville, Chapman, and Bethany, with Fisk and Maryville having to play each other twice.

[Gregory Sager]

Thanks for the info on Nebraska Weselyan.  You are right, I don't think they will be going anywhere in the post season.

Actually, I wasn't saying that at all. How the Prairie Wolves do in their league is irrelevant to the Pool B selection process, since the GPAC is composed entirely of NAIA teams. NebWes is the only NCAA D3 outfit in the GPAC (they're actually a dual NCAA/NAIA member, but they declare for the NCAA postseason every year). So none of those league games matter. The Prairie Wolves could conceivably finish in last place in the GPAC and still make the D3 tourney as a Pool B entry. Strange, but true.

[joe smith]

Bethany wins their 5th in a row last night beating Waynesburg 102-93.  The final score is a lot closer then it actually was.  Bethany pulled their starters with 5 minutes to go and were up 30.  They play W&J this Saturday for sole posession of  1st place.

[njlincolnlion]

Gregory:

Wow, that's a weird scenario for Nebraska Wesleyan.  I guess the saying "To lose is to gain" may be appropriate in the case of the Prairie Dogs.  How lucky can a team potentially get?

[Pat Coleman]

Thanks for the info on Nebraska Weselyan.  You are right, I don't think they will be going anywhere in the post season.

Actually, I wasn't saying that at all. How the Prairie Wolves do in their league is irrelevant to the Pool B selection process, since the GPAC is composed entirely of NAIA teams. NebWes is the only NCAA D3 outfit in the GPAC (they're actually a dual NCAA/NAIA member, but they declare for the NCAA postseason every year). So none of those league games matter. The Prairie Wolves could conceivably finish in last place in the GPAC and still make the D3 tourney as a Pool B entry. Strange, but true.

Actually, it does matter somewhat, because from all I've been told, they have to finish .500 or better overall to get an at-large bid.

[njlincolnlion]

Pat:

Thanks for the clarification on Neb. Wesleyan NCAA post season bid chances.  I see the Prairie Wolves are currently 7-7 with 13 games remaining including the end of the season Independent DIII Tourney at Santa Cruz (with Chapman, and Colorado College joining NWC and UC Santa Cruz).  It seems as if Neb. Wesleyan just started the second half of their conference schedule, and if the schedule hold form, they may just finish at .500 or slightly above.

It's still interesting that they only have to finish .500 or above for a potential NCAA bid.

[njlincolnlion]

Lincoln has six games remaining on the schedule.  My predictions are:

John Jay at home 1/14 - W
Montclair State (7-5) 1/21 at Manhattenville Tourney - W ?
Brooklyn or Manhattenville 1/22 - W
at Delaware Valley 2/2 - W
Richard Stockton (9-2) 2/6 at home - W ?
Penn State Abington at home 2/13 - W

The only uncertain wins are Montclair State and Richard Stockton.  Since Lincoln is playing MSU on a neutral court, I would give the edge to the Lions. 

The Richard Stockton game is a make-up at home due to a snowstorm in December.  Lincoln beat Stockton by 5 points in the Elizabethtown tourney on 11/19 after being down by 19 points with six minutes remaining.  I have to give the Lions the home court point advantage for this game, although the revenge factor is a plus for the Ospreys of Stockton.

Lincoln can finish 21-4 or 20-5.  At 20-5 as an independent, do the Lions receive an NCAA bid?  Any comments and/or opinions?

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Honestly, if they beat Chapman, I guess they can get in.  In fact those two schools meeting in the finals of an independent tourney probably will be a deciding factor between them. (Much like Lincoln and NJCU last year).

As for Lincoln getting 20 wins.  I would assume they have a spot.  A lot will depend on the QOWI and how the regional rankings pan out.

Maryville bear Fisk last night in OT, which means Fisk may be better than expected.  Those two teams split and there's a whole lot more trouble for the Pool B schools.

As far as Bethany goes, has there ever been a 20 win team with an QOWI below 8.5?

[Gregory Sager]

Actually, it does matter somewhat, because from all I've been told, they have to finish .500 or better overall to get an at-large bid.

Why is that? I don't see that .500-or-better rule anywhere in the handbook. Is this some sort of codicil to the rules that was uniquely imposed upon NebWes by the NCAA when the Prairie Wolves declared for D3 postseason eligibility this fall?

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I'll have to check, but I remember seeing something about that in the new handbook.  There was definately a change that I thought would effect the geographically isolated schools like NWU and Rust.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I couldn't find it, but I know I read something about it somewhere.

The only consolation the other teams have against NebWes is the fact that their schedule is so small and so bad.

St. Scholastica twice, a mid-level UMAC team
Martin Luther, a bad UMAC team
Cal Lutheran is a .500 team at best
They lost to Whitworth, the only decent team on the schedule
UC-Santa Cruz and Colorado College are both awful this year

Add an indy tournament, you get one of those last teams again and a game with Chapman.  They would have to beat Chapman, even to be considered in my book.

Although, on the other hand, Chapman's best win is Redlands and their three losses are to some of the top teams on the West Coast.  They have no competition the rest of the way either.  That NebWes-Chapman match-up may just seal it for one of them.

Regardless, I think Lincoln has a better shot than either of them.  So you can rest easy and hope your boys don't until the season's over.

You have to assume Maryville gets in, as they will only be tested twice more (Fisk and Methodist, both teams they've beaten once already).

Bethany can probably get in based on their weak schedule.

Fisk has a big win over RMC and only two in-region losses (Maryville and Miss College).  If they can run out the rest of the schedule (including a win over Maryville) I think they have to be in.

In terms of strength of position (and this could all change once the regional rankings come out):

1. Maryville
2. Lincoln
3. Bethany
4. Fisk
5. Chapman
6. Neb Wes

Fisk can hop to #2 with a win over Maryville.  I think Lincoln's got the hardest row to hoe, but if they finish strong... what am I saying; it's too tough to tell.

[Coach C]

20 wins should get the lions a bid with that schedule, but they really need 21 to feel safe.

C