Bumblin' B's

[joe smith]

   I don't think one team other then Bethany will finish over .500 in their conference (PrAC).  How bad does this hurt them?  And if they get upset or lose in the conference tourny does this pretty much eliminate them from pool B consideration?  If they win out they'll prolly have 22 to 23 wins.

[smedindy]

With the way pool B is shaping up, it only hurts Bethany if they lose a bunch of conference games.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Yeah, I think Bathany can get in with one conference loss, maybe two before they have to start sweating.  They only have two wins over teams that have a legetimate chance to finish above .500 and one of them (Keystone) is a provisional.

[hugenerd]

There is an articles on Lincoln's Kyle Myrick on the ESPN Men's Basketball page right now, entitled, " Myrick hoping to go from jail to NBA", even a quote from Aaron Mckie of the Lakers saying Myrick could make it in the NBA:

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/columns/story?id=2290905

I also noticed that the transfer from Temple has started playing for Lincoln, looks like their guard play could be pretty solid going into the latter part of the season.

[Coach C]

Yeah - this team is a long way from Justice Thurgood Marshall and some of Lincoln's other illustrious grads, but it is STILL better than some of the years past.

C

[Pat Coleman]

Gregory, I think it's a Division III-wide rule (or maybe even an NCAA-wide rule) that doesn't appear in the individual sports' handbooks.

Regarding Lincoln/Chapman, I don't think those teams are in the same indy tourney. There's an east tourney and a west tourney, at least there was last year.

I think Lincoln is a lock at 20-5, even 21-6 if they split the east tourney.

[Coach C]

I think it's in the general regulations regarding championships.  21-6 with the wins they have had should get Lincoln in, but It could get tight.

C

[Ralph Turner]

The Regional Rankings will show us what the committees are thinking.

However, GSAC-leading Maryville TN will get acknowledgement as one of the top teams in the 8-team South Region rankings.  I am not sure Fisk will, unless they sweep Piedmont and win at Maryville in the next 3 weeks.

Lincoln will likely get acknowledgement in one slot of the 8-team Mid-Atlantic Region Rankings.

Chapman probably finishes 9-3 in the West Region with wins over UC-Santa Cruz.  That in-region percentage may be enough.  IMHO, participating and winning the West Region Independents' Post-season tourney will clinch a Pool B bid.

I strongly doubt that Bethany will get any recognition for one of the 6 Great Lakes Region rankings.

I strongly doubt  that Baptist Bible, the leading eligible member of the North East AC, will receive any recognition in the Mid-Atlantic rankings.

I do not believe that an NIIC team can sneak into one of the 8 Midwest Region rankings, nor is one likely to salvage a season regional record to earn a bid, unless it runs the table.

For regional ranking ratios, see Page 18.

http://www.ncaa.org/library/handbooks/basketball/2006/2006_d3_m_basketball_handbook.pdf

In summary, my rankings for the 4 Pool B bids are:

1)  Maryville TN
2)  Lincoln

Probable:

3)  Chapman

Bubble teams:

--  Bethany
--  Fisk
--  NIIC Champion

Dark Horse--

Baptist Bible

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Lincoln (8-4) 10.67 (Too bad they have some big wins against out of region opponents that don't count, a 15 and three 13's by my count)

I just ran the QOWI out of curiosity.  Those road games help, but it's true that some of the best wins on Lincoln's schedule are out of region.  Still, the outlook is promising.  There aren't too many potential 8's and 9's to bring you down and a win over Richard Stockton would really be a great way to end the year.  I think if Lincoln can get that game, they got a spot locked up. (That is assuming they don't lose before then).

[njlincolnlion]

Hoops Fan:

Lincoln has a game aganist Montclair State on Saturday night at Manhattanville College's tournament.  Lincoln should win, but you never know, the Lions lost a heartbreaker to LVC.  I'm giving the Lions a win at home in a close game with Richard Stockton.  The other teams remaining on the schedule should be wins for the Lions.  I don't know who the four teams will be in the year end DIII Independent East tourney?

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

For kicks here is the QOWI for our "Contenders" and a mark on their chances for the rest of the season

Maryville (11-2- South) 11.62 need their opponents to keep winning
Lincoln (8-4- Mid-Atlantic) 10.67 need to win out to improve
Fisk (6-2- South) 10.13 they need to beat Maryville and hope the rest of the GSAC stays above .333
NebWes (5-1- West) 9.00 They might improve if they win an indy-west tourney
Chapman (7-3- West) 8.60 could improve if they win an indy-west tourney
Baptist Bible (7-3- Mid-Atlantic) 8.50 They don't really have a shot to get much higher; same boat as Bethany
Bethany (10-4- Great Lakes) 8.43 even if they win out, I don't think they get above nine
Aurora (5-5- Midwest) 8.40 If they can win out in conference, they might become a contender

I think Maryville is a lock; their only slip-up may be to Fisk, which would still put them solidly the #1 B choice.
Lincoln holds their own fate.  I think they can get in with a loss to Stockton, but the win seals it.
Fisk can get in by winning out, but even if they lose to Maryville, I think they have a good shot.
I'm not sure how the committee feels about NebWes, but unless they beat Chapman at the end of the year, they don't make it.
Chapman, has to beat NebWes unless the teams below them choke.  Bethany or Fisk may have to underachieve as well.
Baptist Bible needs to win out and probably have a couple teams above them lose.
Bethany needs to win out, period.  If they do I think the committee rewards them.
Aurora's bid will depend on how the rest of the NIIC does; a lot of teams are hovering around .500, which could boost the QOWI, but they too will probably have to win out.

As far as Lincoln and an indy-east tourney... I'm not sure there would be much to gain from it this year.  It could end up being St Joe's again and probably Newbury and Presque-Isle.  At most they could offer two 11 point wins and I don't think Lincoln needs them unless they lose twice between now and then.

[Ralph Turner]

Great job, Hoops fan!

Thanks for the analysis.  I strongly agree with your assessment!

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

High praise from Ralph; it's been a long time coming.  Thanks for the support.  I just wonder if my coworkers wonder why I suddenly need to use a calculator frequently every January, when I never touch the thing the rest of the year.

[Ralph Turner]

Hoopsfan, tonight Sewanee (5-10 overall / 4-8 region /1-4  conference ) threw a wrench into Maryville's QOWI with a 75-73 win.  That loss is bordering on a 1 or 3 point QOWI loss for the rest of the season.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Yeah, that was a quick turnaround.  If Fisk can knock them off, Maryville falls to the bubble.