Bumblin' B's

[njlincolnlion]

Hoops Fan:

You're right, Lincoln does want to keep Pool B.  I would also add that they way some teams are trying to may make it in, we should re-name this board "The Stumblin Bumblin B's"   .

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Yes, but Bethany's QOWI is going to be much lower this year, which will hurt them.  Margin of Victory doesn't matter in the selection and only regional games count, so give me the regional record, which will be less than 23 wins and thus less imprpessive.

[Ralph Turner]

Joe Smith, I think that Bethany will get a Pool B by running the table and the conference tourney.

That will give an in-region record of 20-4.

The home loss to Marietta is probably worth "0" QOWI points.

The Bison's QOWI may be weak, but Maryville TN has had some weak QOWI losses to the SCAC teams, too.

Chapman's recent loss to UC-Banana Slug knocked their QOWI by 0.666 points.

The Bison have done a good job of "digging themselves out of an early season hole".

[joe smith]

   I agree totally.  I know their QOWI is much lower then last year being they beat all the bad teams they faced last year (which was 80% of their schedule).  The conference was also a lot better last year.  Their loss to Marietta is the only bad loss I see on their schedule. Their other three losses come against CMU, Case Western, and Lake Erie.  All with respectable records.  It would have been nice to get 2 of those games.   They lost on a buzzer beater at Case and Nate Maurer from CMU hit 2 free throws w/ a few seconds left to lift CMU to a 2-point win.  They win those 2 games we're not even having this discusiion about Bethany being on the bubble.  In fact, Bethany might even be ranked!!!     

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I think they have to get to 20 wins to get in.  That QOWI number is just not going to get better beating the teams on their schedule.

[scottiedoug]

It's a funny game, isn't it?  Maryville has lost three of its four games by a total of 10 points to teams they coulda/shoulda beaten and now have some real work to do, and with their leading scorer/post starter hobbling with a sprained ankle.  I am sure other Pool B contenders have some similar story.

[Pat Coleman]

QOW index through games of Thursday, Jan. 26:

1-10
Worcester Polytech     11.938
Lawrence    11.917
Augustana    11.667
Amherst    11.286
Carnegie Mellon    11.182
St. John Fisher    11.167
Cortland State    11.133
York (Pa.)    11.133
Tufts    11.000
Trinity (Texas)    11.000
               
11-20
Bates    11.000
Wittenberg    10.923
Mississippi College    10.867
Occidental    10.857
Lincoln    10.857
Baldwin-Wallace    10.750
Albion    10.750
Hope    10.700
Illinois Wesleyan    10.667
Wooster    10.643
               
21-30
Gordon    10.571
Baruch    10.563
William Paterson    10.500
New York University    10.467
Fisk    10.444
Transylvania    10.412
UW-Oshkosh    10.400
Washington U.    10.400
North Central    10.364
Wartburg    10.357
               
31-40
Puget Sound    10.333
UW-La Crosse    10.278
Willamette    10.250
Endicott    10.231
Plymouth State    10.167
Calvin    10.167
MIT    10.071
Randolph-Macon    10.063
Carroll    10.000
Albright    9.929
               
41-50
UW-Stout    9.929
UW-Whitewater    9.923
Rochester    9.917
Maryville (Tenn.)    9.875
Ursinus    9.875
Widener    9.875
Johns Hopkins    9.857
Williams    9.824
Bluffton    9.818
Keene State    9.813
               
51-60
Mary Hardin-Baylor    9.800
New Jersey    9.786
Howard Payne    9.733
Virginia Wesleyan    9.722
Mount St. Mary    9.667
Trinity (Conn.)    9.667
Utica    9.643
New Jersey City    9.625
Wilkes    9.583
Lake Erie    9.583
               
61-70
Hanover    9.538
Loras    9.538
Bowdoin    9.538
St. Thomas    9.533
Messiah    9.533
Norwich    9.533
Catholic    9.500
Ramapo    9.500
Wheaton (Mass.)    9.500
Wilmington    9.500
               
71-80
Elizabethtown    9.400
Lakeland    9.400
Carleton    9.385
Salem State    9.375
Averett    9.333
Rutgers-Newark    9.294
Whitworth    9.286
Elmhurst    9.286
UW-Platteville    9.286
Oswego State    9.267
               
81-90
McMurry    9.214
Franklin    9.200
Milwaukee Engineering    9.200
Southwestern    9.154
Muskingum    9.133
Mass-Dartmouth    9.071
Alvernia    9.067
UW-Stevens Point    9.067
Western Connecticut    9.063
Westfield State    9.063
               
91-100
Scranton    9.063
Rhode Island College    9.059
Salisbury    9.000
Brandeis    9.000
Penn State-Behrend    9.000
Pomona-Pitzer    9.000
Nebraska Wesleyan    9.000
Bethany    8.938
Richard Stockton    8.933
Ohio Northern    8.923

In the 100-110 range, Villa Julie 8.857, Baptist Bible 8.750.

[Gregory Sager]

Hoops Fan said a few weeks ago that Aurora would probably need to win out in the NIIC to garner a Pool B berth, and given their undistinguished QOWI I tend to agree. But running the table in the NIIC now appears to be a definite possibility for the Spartans. They're 4-0 in league play, with six conference games (plus a meaningless contest against neighboring NAIA nonentity Judson) remaining. Their closest competitor is Clarke (2-1), and the Spartans handled them easily on Wednesday, winning 69-53 in Aurora.

Benedictine and Rockford are the other two traditionally tough programs in that league, but the Bennies are down this season; they've lost several of their big men to injury, and they're floundering uncharacteristically at 1-2 in the NIIC, 5-8 in the Midwest Region, and 7-10 overall. They're on a three-game losing streak heading into their home contest today against Aurora. Rockford? They're inconsistent (2-2 in the NIIC, 6-7 in the region, 11-8 overall), and Aurora's already beaten them in Rockford by six.

Concordia (IL) is undergoing something of a renaissance by their standards; their NIIC, regional, and overall records of 3-2, 7-8, and 8-10 are milestones of major success in usual CURF terms, and their team is very young (i.e., likely to play better as the season goes along). They might have the best chance of all NIIC teams of knocking off Aurora; the Spartans beat CURF in their initial matchup in Aurora last Saturday, 94-83. Eureka? The Red Devils are putrid, and Aurora will handle them easily in their return engagement.

Should the Spartans run the table and finish the year with a perfect 10-0 NIIC record, they'll wind up with a 14-5 Midwest Region record. Their QOWI will probably not improve enough to impress anyone, but with that kind of a regional record you have to figure that they'll get some attention on Selection Monday, given the omnipresent bumblitude of Pool B aspirants.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Before the weekend, according to Pat's numbers:

15. Lincoln (10-4) 10.857
25. Fisk (7-2) 10.444
44. Maryville (Tenn.)  (13-4)  9.875
97. Nebraska Wesleyan  (5-1)  9.000
98. Bethany (13-4)   8.938
100+ Villa Julie (11-4) 8.857
100+ Baptist Bible (10-3) 8.750

Aurora (8-6) wasn't even on the list and lost at Benedictine over the weekend, probably eliminating the NIIC from contention in Pool B.  They have six regional losses at this point, but could potentially slip in if they run out and some more teams above lose it.

Chapman (8-4) lost to the Banana Slugs on the road and beat them at home, both games dropping the QOWI number.  They would have to bear NebWEs in a tourney final to even have a shot.

Rust (8-5) might be an outside shot still if they can beat Fisk to end the season.

St Joe's (6-3) will have to run the table to even be considered.

Baptist Bible and Villa Julie have little chance of improving their numbers all that much.

I think Bethany can get up over 9 pretty solidly with a run-out, very possible.  I think they control their own destiny here.

Fisk and Maryville play each other twice more (assuming the GSAC tournament), so long as those are the only games they lose, they are probably in good shape.  If one of them wins both, then the loser might drop to the bubble.

Lincoln, I have to say is in regardless, but a win over Richard Stockton is a shoe-in.

NebWes is the big question.  They and Bethany may have to duke it out for the last spot.

[njlincolnlion]

Hoops Fan:

I like your analysis previous analysis on the state of the Bumblin B's.  I posted a while ago about Richard Stockton, being a concern of mine, and that I would give Lincoln the edge because they are playing at home.  Additionally, the transfers are playing now, and that makes Lincoln deeper than thet were when the Lions played Stockton very early in the season. 

I spoke with Coach Yuille at the Manhattanville Castle Classic and he mentioned the Lions really get up for home games, since they have had so few, and they are getting tremendous support from the Lincoln community.  It's also dosen't hurt to have Myricks leading the nation in scoring average, Wylie is #6 in 3 points, and and Darryl White is #7 in blocked shots.  The crowd should really be "shy high" with the Lions back in the Top 25.

Before the Stockton game the Lions have to travel to Doylestown PA to take on the Delaware Valley Aggies for the final road game of the season on Friday.  After the Stockton game, the Lions take on Penn State Abington at home, and I just saw on Lincoln's web site, the Lions will be hosting the Northeast DIII tourney.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

That tourney is about the dumbest thing Lincoln could do.  Their resume will be no different if they win and they will be much worse off if they lose.  They might even be worse off if they win, assuming they can't get teams with .667 records into it.

[Knightstalker]

I am not sure, but I think if a team is a member of the Independents Association they have to play in the tournament if selected.

[smedindy]

It's probably good for them to get more games in before the NCAAs, since their season was so front loaded.

[Ralph Turner]

It's probably good for them to get more games in before the NCAAs, since their season was so front loaded.

Yes, Lincoln needs to get the games.  If they cannot win the D3Indepedents tourney, they won't last the first round of the Dance.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

They just need to make sure they win.  Those numbers are awfully pretty to selection committee members right now.