Top 25 discussion

[Darryl Nester]

How They Fared (So Far)

Top 25

Rank	Pts	Team	W-L	Results
#1	618	Tufts	14-0	01/17 at Hamilton; 01/18 at #4 Amherst
#2	594	Bowdoin	15-0	def. Maine-Presque Isle, 93-24; 01/17 vs. #30 Williams; 01/18 vs. Middlebury
#3	588	Hope	15-0	def. Calvin, 74-50; 01/18 at St. Mary's (Ind.)
#4	543	Amherst	14-1	def. Wesleyan, 67-50; 01/17 vs. Bates; 01/18 vs. #1 Tufts
#5	518	DePauw	15-1	def. Denison, 49-47; 01/18 at Ohio Wesleyan
#6	469	UW-Whitewater	14-1	won at #18 UW-La Crosse, 66-52; 01/18 vs. UW-Stout
#7	428	Wartburg	13-2	def. Luther, 80-69; 01/18 at Coe
#8	392	Whitman	12-1	01/17 at Pacific; 01/18 at #16 George Fox
#9	346	Transylvania	13-1	def. Hanover, 85-68; 01/18 at Rose-Hulman
#10	337	Scranton	12-2	won at Moravian, 74-48; 01/18 at Catholic
#11	335	Loras	14-1	01/18 vs. Dubuque
#12	315	Baldwin Wallace	13-1	def. Ohio Northern, 59-42; 01/18 at Wilmington
#13	298	Bethel	14-0	def. St. Olaf, 82-36; 01/18 at St. Benedict
#14	292	Chicago	10-2	01/17 at Carnegie Mellon; 01/19 at Case Western Reserve
#15	287	Augsburg	12-2	def. St. Catherine, 72-61; 01/18 at #21 Gustavus Adolphus
#16	261	George Fox	10-3	01/17 vs. Whitworth; 01/18 vs. #8 Whitman
#17	246	Mary Hardin-Baylor	11-3	01/16 vs. Hardin-Simmons; 01/18 vs. McMurry
#18	237	UW-La Crosse	11-4	LOST to #6 UW-Whitewater, 52-66; 01/18 at UW-Platteville
#19	230	Trinity (Texas)	11-2	01/17 vs. JWU-Denver; 01/18 vs. Colorado College
#20	172	Austin	12-1	01/17 at Southwestern; 01/18 at Texas Lutheran
#21	140	Gustavus Adolphus	11-3	LOST at Concordia-Moorhead, 65-75; 01/18 vs. #15 Augsburg
#22	130	St. Thomas	11-3	def. Carleton, 63-59; 01/18 at St. Mary's (Minn.)
#23	70	Oglethorpe	15-1	01/17 vs. Millsaps; 01/19 vs. Birmingham-Southern
#24	57	Albright	15-0	def. T#35 Widener, 83-72; 01/18 at #33 Messiah
#25	46	Gettysburg	13-1	won at Dickinson, 62-52; 01/18 vs. Washington College

Others receiving votes

Rank	Pts	Team	W-L	Results
#26	37	Texas-Dallas	10-4	01/16 vs. Louisiana College; 01/18 vs. Belhaven
#27	32	DeSales	10-4	won at Wilkes, 70-55; 01/18 vs. Delaware Valley
#28	30	Albion	13-2	def. Alma, 72-47; 01/18 at Trine
#29	20	New York University	11-1	01/17 vs. T#37 Emory; 01/19 vs. Rochester
#30	13	Williams	12-3	LOST to T#35 Smith, 64-71; 01/17 at #2 Bowdoin; 01/18 at Colby
#31	8	Brandeis	10-2	01/17 vs. Rochester; 01/19 vs. T#37 Emory
#32	7	East Texas Baptist	9-4	01/16 vs. Howard Payne; 01/18 vs. Sul Ross State
#33	6	Messiah	11-4	def. Hood, 95-43; 01/18 vs. #24 Albright
#34	5	Emory and Henry	12-3	LOST at Hollins, 73-78 OT; 01/18 vs. Eastern Mennonite
T#35	4	Smith	14-1	won at #30 Williams, 71-64; 01/18 at Emerson
T#35	4	Widener	12-3	LOST at #24 Albright, 72-83; 01/18 vs. Hood
T#37	2	Eastern Connecticut	12-3	def. Emmanuel, 90-62; LOST to Rhode Island College, 46-58; 01/18 at Southern Maine
T#37	2	Emory	10-2	01/17 at #29 New York University; 01/19 at #31 Brandeis
T#37	2	Illinois Wesleyan	11-4	won at Elmhurst, 71-46; 01/18 at Carroll
T#40	1	Cortland	11-1	def. SUNY Oneonta, 69-41; 01/18 at Oswego State
T#40	1	Mass-Boston	12-3	LOST to Castleton, 53-57; 01/18 at Rhode Island College
T#40	1	Misericordia	12-1	01/15 at Delaware Valley postponed; 01/18 at Stevens
T#40	1	SUNY Geneseo	11-1	def. Fredonia, 74-65; 01/17 vs. SUNY New Paltz; 01/18 vs. SUNY Oneonta

Other teams to watch (as suggested by posters on this board)

Rank	Pts	Team	W-L	Results
---	---	William Peace	13-2	01/18 vs. Mary Baldwin

[scottiedawg]

Largest disagreement between D3Hoops.com poll and Massey:
Emory & Henry - 86 spots lower in Massey than in D3Hoops.com
Mass-Boston - 69
DeSales - 39
Messiah - 39
Widener - 33
Misericordia - 29
Brandeis - 28
Cortland - 27
Scranton - 25
Transylvania - 21
E Connecticut - 20

Illinois Wesleyan - 20 spots higher in Massey than in D3Hoops.com
Bethel - 11
St. Thomas - 8
Trinity TX - 7
Loras - 6

Massey thinks these teams are the most overrated, relative to their D3Hoops.com ranking:
Tufts
Emory & Henry
Scranton
Transylvania
Mass-Boston
DeSales

Massey thinks these teams are the most underrated, relative to their D3Hoops.com ranking:
Bethel
Hope
Loras
Illinois Wesleyan
Trinity TX
St. Thomas

Highest ranked teams in Massey, that received no votes:
Trine - 16th
Simpson - 18
John Carroll - 21
UW-Stout - 22
Texas-Dallas - 24

Looking at Massey + SOS, one would expect these teams to slide in D3Hoops.com rankings over the rest of the season:
Bowdoin (vs Williams and Middlebury will tell us a lot)
Transylvania
Scranton
Oglethorpe
NYU (Emory coming up is a tough one)
Brandeis (Emory coming up is a tough one)
Emory & Henry (have already lost this week)
Eastern Connecticut (have already lost this week)
Cortland
Mass-Boston (have already lost this week)
Misericordia
* all have no wins against Massey top #125 this week

Looking at Massey + SOS, one would expect these teams to move up in D3Hoops.com rankings over the rest of the season:
Hope def Massey #58
UW-Whitewater def Massey #17
Wartburg def Massey #34
Loras
Baldwin-Wallace def Massey #42
Bethel
Trinity TX
St. Thomas
Illinois Wesleyan

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

There are six weeks left in the regular season, but the grind of conference schedules can make it feel like the end is a long ways off.

As teams try and focus on each game in front of them, the ramifications of each outcome grow larger and larger. Conference tournament seeding (or even participating), at-large hopes, and to a larger degree opportunities to be home in March with the hopes of a national championship as the goal.

Thursday on Hoopsville, we chat with a few programs that are on top of their conference races (or were), but the standing could change in just one game. We chat about how teams deal with being everyone's target or how to survive the grind.

Plus, relationships with a program's alumni can go a long way to how successful the program becomes and even the institution on a larger scale. In this week's WBCA Center Court, MIT coach Sonia Raman discusses what prompted her to get alums more involved and how it has resulted in a significant increase in contributions as well.

Hoopsville is presented by D3hoops.com and airs from the WBCA/NABC Studio. You can watch Thursday's show LIVE starting at 7:00 pm ET in the following ways:
- Main page: www.d3hoops.com/hoopsville
- Show page: http://bit.ly/2TrjT6B (or www.d3hoops.com/hoopsville/archives/2019-20/jan16)
- Facebook Live Simulcast: www.facebook.com/Hoopsville
- YouTube Simulcast: www.youtube.com/d3hoopsville
- Team1 Sports: www.team1sports.com/Hoopsville/
- Team1 Sports app (Android TV, Amazon Fire, Apple TV, Roku) - you will either find it under the "live" section or search for the Hoopsville channel

Thursday's show primarily covers the East, Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and West Regions while also featuring a women's coach in the WBCA Center Court segment. All men's coaches appear in the NABC Coach's Corner. And all guests are featured on the BlueFrame Technology Hoopsville Hotline.

If you have questions about Division III basketball, feel free to send them and we will answer them on a the show. Email them to hoopsville@d3hoops.com or use any of the social media options.

Guests Schedule (order subject to change):
- Sonia Raman, MIT women's coach (WBCA Center Court)
- Dale Wellman, No. 11 Nebraska Wesleyan men's coach (NABC Coach's Corner)
- Darryl Keckler, Drew men's coach (NABC Coach's Corner)
- Juli Fulks, No. 9 Transylvania women's coach

If you enjoy the show via the podcasts, choose your favorite avenue to listen and/or subscribe via the the following four avenues (click on the images when necessary):
SoundCloud: www.soundcloud.com/hoopsville


 
   
We also have the podcast now on Tune-In and others coming. We will update them once we have better abilities to do so.

Don't forget you can always interact with us:
Website: www.d3hoopsville.com
Twitter: @d3hoopsville or #Hoopsville
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Email: hoopsville@d3hoops.com
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[jekelish]

Largest disagreement between D3Hoops.com poll and Massey:
Emory & Henry - 86 spots lower in Massey than in D3Hoops.com
Mass-Boston - 69
DeSales - 39
Messiah - 39
Widener - 33
Misericordia - 29
Brandeis - 28
Cortland - 27
Scranton - 25
Transylvania - 21
E Connecticut - 20

Illinois Wesleyan - 20 spots higher in Massey than in D3Hoops.com
Bethel - 11
St. Thomas - 8
Trinity TX - 7
Loras - 6

Massey thinks these teams are the most overrated, relative to their D3Hoops.com ranking:
Tufts
Emory & Henry
Scranton
Transylvania
Mass-Boston
DeSales

Massey thinks these teams are the most underrated, relative to their D3Hoops.com ranking:
Bethel
Hope
Loras
Illinois Wesleyan
Trinity TX
St. Thomas

Highest ranked teams in Massey, that received no votes:
Trine - 16th
Simpson - 18
John Carroll - 21
UW-Stout - 22
Texas-Dallas - 24

Looking at Massey + SOS, one would expect these teams to slide in D3Hoops.com rankings over the rest of the season:
Bowdoin (vs Williams and Middlebury will tell us a lot)
Transylvania
Scranton
Oglethorpe
NYU (Emory coming up is a tough one)
Brandeis (Emory coming up is a tough one)
Emory & Henry (have already lost this week)
Eastern Connecticut (have already lost this week)
Cortland
Mass-Boston (have already lost this week)
Misericordia
* all have no wins against Massey top #125 this week

Looking at Massey + SOS, one would expect these teams to move up in D3Hoops.com rankings over the rest of the season:
Hope def Massey #58
UW-Whitewater def Massey #17
Wartburg def Massey #34
Loras
Baldwin-Wallace def Massey #42
Bethel
Trinity TX
St. Thomas
Illinois Wesleyan

One quick note: you've got UTD in the received no votes section but they're actually #26 in this week's voting.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

scottiedawg - I've seen this a few times in your posts... just FYI it's "D3hoops.com" ... we don't tend to capitalize that 'h' ...

[scottiedawg]

now I know!

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

With conference action always comes surprises. There are teams who upset those at the top of the conference and make the races a bit more interesting. That is especially true for programs who look to distance themselves from the rest of the conference, but a surprising loss keeps those plans at bay.

Sunday night on Hoopsville, we continue to dive into conferences races across the country and look at how the last week's results have either helped clear up races or made them more messy. Plus we talk to several conference leaders to find out how they are faring.

Hoopsville is presented by D3hoops.com and airs from the WBCA/NABC Studio. You can watch Sunday's show LIVE starting at 7:00 pm ET in the following ways:
- Main page: www.d3hoops.com/hoopsville
- Show page: http://bit.ly/37lbXrm (or www.d3hoops.com/hoopsville/archives/2019-20/jan19)
- Facebook Live Simulcast: www.facebook.com/Hoopsville
- YouTube Simulcast: www.youtube.com/d3hoopsville
- Team1 Sports: www.team1sports.com/Hoopsville/
- Team1 Sports app (Android TV, Amazon Fire, Apple TV, Roku) - you will either find it under the "live" section or search for the Hoopsville channel

Sunday's show primarily covers the Atlantic, Central, South, and Northeast Regions. All men's coaches appear in the NABC Coach's Corner. And all guests are featured on the BlueFrame Technology Hoopsville Hotline.

If you have questions about Division III basketball, feel free to send them and we will answer them on a the show. Email them to dave.mchugh@d3sports.com or use any of the social media options to the right.

Guests Schedule (order subject to change):
- Jenna Cosgrove, Rhode Island College women's coach
- John Baines, No. 10 Elmhurst men's coach (NABC Coach's Corner)
- Greg Mason, Centre men's coach (NABC Coach's Corner)
- Bob Quillman & Ryan Scott, Top 25 Double-Take

If you enjoy the show via the podcasts, choose your favorite avenue to listen and/or subscribe via the the following four avenues (click on the images when necessary):
SoundCloud: www.soundcloud.com/hoopsville


 
   
We also have the podcast now on Tune-In and others coming. We will update them once we have better abilities to do so.

Don't forget you can always interact with us:
Website: www.d3hoopsville.com
Twitter: @d3hoopsville or #Hoopsville
Facebook: www.facebook.com/Hoopsville
Email: hoopsville@d3hoops.com
YouTube: www.youtube.com/d3hoopsville

[Darryl Nester]

How They Fared (Complete)

Augsburg/Gustavus Adolphus (postponed from yesterday) is currently at halftime.

Top 25

Rank	Pts	Team	W-L	Results
#1	618	Tufts	16-0	won at Hamilton, 63-62; won at #4 Amherst, 48-46 OT
#2	594	Bowdoin	17-0	def. Maine-Presque Isle, 93-24; def. #30 Williams, 74-52; def. Middlebury, 80-61
#3	588	Hope	16-0	def. Calvin, 74-50; won at St. Mary's (Ind.), 76-41
#4	543	Amherst	15-2	def. Wesleyan, 67-50; def. Bates, 43-37; LOST to #1 Tufts, 46-48 OT
#5	518	DePauw	16-1	def. Denison, 49-47; won at Ohio Wesleyan, 73-53
#6	469	UW-Whitewater	15-1	won at #18 UW-La Crosse, 66-52; def. UW-Stout, 72-56
#7	428	Wartburg	14-2	def. Luther, 80-69; won at Coe, 68-50
#8	392	Whitman	13-2	LOST at Pacific, 64-65; won at #16 George Fox, 62-54
#9	346	Transylvania	14-1	def. Hanover, 85-68; won at Rose-Hulman, 72-60
#10	337	Scranton	12-3	won at Moravian, 74-48; LOST at Catholic, 62-65
#11	335	Loras	15-1	def. Dubuque, 79-73
#12	315	Baldwin Wallace	14-1	def. Ohio Northern, 59-42; won at Wilmington, 85-61
#13	298	Bethel	15-0	def. St. Olaf, 82-36; won at St. Benedict, 69-53
#14	292	Chicago	11-3	won at Carnegie Mellon, 52-38; LOST at Case Western Reserve, 71-77
#15	287	Augsburg	12-3	def. St. Catherine, 72-61; LOST at #21 Gustavus Adolphus, 64-75
#16	261	George Fox	11-4	def. Whitworth, 86-76; LOST to #8 Whitman, 54-62
#17	246	Mary Hardin-Baylor	13-3	def. Hardin-Simmons, 56-49; def. McMurry, 72-49
#18	237	UW-La Crosse	12-4	LOST to #6 UW-Whitewater, 52-66; won at UW-Platteville, 53-48
#19	230	Trinity (Texas)	13-2	def. JWU-Denver, 103-26; def. Colorado College, 90-66
#20	172	Austin	13-2	LOST at Southwestern, 73-76; won at Texas Lutheran, 89-59
#21	140	Gustavus Adolphus	12-3	LOST at Concordia-Moorhead, 65-75; def. #15 Augsburg, 75-64
#22	130	St. Thomas	12-3	def. Carleton, 63-59; won at St. Mary's (Minn.), 60-35
#23	70	Oglethorpe	17-1	def. Millsaps, 66-40; def. Birmingham-Southern, 75-72
#24	57	Albright	15-1	def. T#35 Widener, 83-72; LOST at #33 Messiah, 73-82
#25	46	Gettysburg	14-1	won at Dickinson, 62-52; def. Washington College, 83-53

Others receiving votes

Rank	Pts	Team	W-L	Results
#26	37	Texas-Dallas	12-4	def. Louisiana College, 86-55; def. Belhaven, 67-60
#27	32	DeSales	11-4	won at Wilkes, 70-55; def. Delaware Valley, 102-48
#28	30	Albion	13-3	def. Alma, 72-47; LOST at Trine, 45-63
#29	20	New York University	12-2	LOST to T#37 Emory, 59-74; def. Rochester, 64-54
#30	13	Williams	13-4	LOST to T#35 Smith, 64-71; LOST at #2 Bowdoin, 52-74; won at Colby, 80-48
#31	8	Brandeis	11-3	def. Rochester, 60-50; LOST to T#37 Emory, 67-75
#32	7	East Texas Baptist	11-4	def. Howard Payne, 63-49; def. Sul Ross State, 88-45
#33	6	Messiah	12-4	def. Hood, 95-43; def. #24 Albright, 82-73
#34	5	Emory and Henry	13-3	LOST at Hollins, 73-78 OT; def. Eastern Mennonite, 71-54
T#35	4	Smith	14-2	won at #30 Williams, 71-64; LOST at Emerson, 66-68
T#35	4	Widener	13-3	LOST at #24 Albright, 72-83; def. Hood, 77-56
T#37	2	Eastern Connecticut	13-3	def. Emmanuel, 90-62; LOST to Rhode Island College, 46-58; won at Southern Maine, 75-67
T#37	2	Emory	12-2	won at #29 New York University, 74-59; won at #31 Brandeis, 75-67
T#37	2	Illinois Wesleyan	12-4	won at Elmhurst, 71-46; won at Carroll, 83-69
T#40	1	Cortland	12-1	def. SUNY Oneonta, 69-41; won at Oswego State, 52-40
T#40	1	Mass.-Boston	13-3	LOST to Castleton, 53-57; won at Rhode Island College, 45-44
T#40	1	Misericordia	14-1	won at Delaware Valley, 77-36; won at Stevens, 77-62
T#40	1	SUNY Geneseo	12-2	def. Fredonia, 74-65; LOST to SUNY New Paltz, 67-71 OT; def. SUNY Oneonta, 50-46

Other teams to watch (as suggested by posters on this board)

Rank	Pts	Team	W-L	Results
---	---	William Peace	14-2	def. Mary Baldwin, 72-58

[scottiedawg]

These are teams that (1) are ranked much lower in Massey compared to D3hoops.com, (2) don't have great SOS (most have BAAAAD SOS. Tufts' is decent)

Great win for Tufts @ Amherst. Their SOS moved up A LOT. Massey still has them #5.  D3hoops.com #1 Tufts @ #2 Bowdoin 1/31 will be fun.

Misericordia - with the exception of @DeSales, they don't have any very hard games coming up. Their very bad SOS won't be changing much. They will be a tough seeding decision if they end up with 1 or 2 losses.

Cortland - same as Misericordia, just sub in SUNY New Paltz for DeSales.

Transylvania - see above, but no tough games left at all. Should run the tables and end up with 1 loss, and still not be deserving of a very good seed. SOS above 225 is so so so bad.

Scranton - vs. Catholic is a bit tough, that's it.  3-4 losses total

Catholic - @ Scranton is tough, that's it. 3-4 losses total

Austin - @Trinity TX is quite tough. Should run the tables otherwise.

DeSales - see Misericordia

Oglethorpe - easy slate left. A Massey #114 Rhodes is toughest.

Albright - Couple tough ones left.

Brandeis - They have a gauntlet. They play more tough games the rest of the way than all 10 teams above combined!! We'll know exactly how good Brandeis is come seeding time. (21, 22, 22, 50, 57, 57, 71, 71, 134, 134, 158)

NYU - Same as Brandeis. We'll know.


In the MIAA, Trine and Albion deserve to be ranked much higher than they are. But they won't be, especially since they are likely to lose to Hope, and losses drop you in the polls. Both have played very tough schedules, with no bad losses. Trine vs. Ohio Wesleyan is the worst one.

Illinois Wesleyan and Gustavus Adolphus may be better than their D3hoops.com ranking. Massey likes them and they've had tough schedules. They have chances during the rest of the year to move up with wins.


At the end of the day, both D3hoops.com and Massey are ranking deserving teams high. No team with a SOS > 150 is in either top 25.
Oglethorpe has a #154 SOS, and is D3hoops.com #19.
Transylvania has a #121 SOS, and is D3hoops.com #9. (if they had one more loss they might be out of the top 25)


Simpson is interesting. Only 3 losses. Massey #15. SOS #36. Didn't get any votes.

UW-Stout may be the poster child for voters valuing weak wins more than quality losses. They have only 4 losses: 3 on the road to very very good teams. And vs. Il Wesleyan, who is also a good team. You can easily make the argument Stout should be ahead of all these teams:
Scranton
Oglethorpe
Austin
Albright
DeSales
Cortland
Misericordia
Pacific
East Texas Baptist
Messiah
Widener
Brandeis
Catholic
NYU


Those 14 teams:
Average losses = 2.5
Average SOS = 150.5
Average loss was to: Massey #80 (YIKES!!)


UW-Stout:
Losses = 4
SOS = 17
Average loss was to: Massey #14

I'd put:
Trine
Simpson
Illinois Wesleyan
John Carroll
UW-Stout

in the D3hoops.com top 25.

Drop:
Austin
Scranton
Oglethorpe
Transylvania
Gettysburg


Don't give votes to:
Catholic
DeSales
Cortland
Widener
Brandeis
Misericordia

Give them to:
UW-Eau Claire
North Park
Ohio Northern
UW-Oshkosh
Luther

[gordonmann]

This is very interesting. Thanks for doing this.

A couple thoughts:

* I don't know how much scrutiny is worth giving any team with less than, say, 10 points in the poll. Teams with less than five points are usually on one ballot, holding down one of the last spots. That's one slot out of 625 possible. Often (but not always) those are votes from someone in the same region or conference as that team. That's why we maintain geographic balance on the panel.

* I know some schools like to say they are ranked "No. 27" and that's a handy way of referencing teams receiving votes. But the reality is they aren't ranked anything because we don't ask people to rank the 27 best teams. If we did, the list would look very different. If I had five extra slots on my ballot, in some order they would go Pacific, Gettysburg, Transylvania, William Peace and Emory. That doesn't synch at all with the next five teams outside the poll.

* I've been an outlier on Transylvania all year for the reason you mentioned. When I ask myself the "whom did you beat/whom did you lose to" question, the answers don't validate a Top 10 ranking. My concern is this is a vote that looked good in the preseason but hasn't been stress tested at all. But we also have voters who have seen Transylvania in person, in some cases multiple times, so I may be dead wrong.

* Albion and Trine don't have many bad losses, but they don't have many good wins, either. Albion's non-conference wins are over a collection of teams that are hovering around .500 and non-D3 opponents. Trine does a little better here -- the wins over ONU and Denison are good -- but those teams aren't getting Top 25 consideration either. So it's tough to know whether those wins mean Trine is worthy of a Top 25 vote or simply better than other teams who also aren't Top 25 worthy.

* Hope is going to be in a really interesting situation come tournament time. It's possible the Flying Dutch will be undefeated in a solid conference but with no results against regionally ranked opponents. Would the NCAA slot a one-loss DePauw or Baldwin Wallace team ahead of Hope for hosting rights in the NCAA tournament?

[Roundball999]

* Hope is going to be in a really interesting situation come tournament time. It's possible the Flying Dutch will be undefeated in a solid conference but with no results against regionally ranked opponents. Would the NCAA slot a one-loss DePauw or Baldwin Wallace team ahead of Hope for hosting rights in the NCAA tournament?

Wow, I hadn't thought of that.  I can totally understand how that would happen using NCAA's criteria... but would be a real shame if it came to pass.  Beating everyone put in front of you including blasting UAA leader CWRU by 37,  demolishing NCAC leader Benedictine by 44 (NCAC Wisc Luth has a win over Depauw), wins over very tough Trine and Albion, leading the NCAA in scoring margin and scoring defense - it would be hard to imagine a more deserving host despite the NCAA criterion. 

But, there are return matchups still on the schedule with Trine and Albion so there's lots of work yet for the Dutch to do before worrying about post season positioning.

[gordonmann]

I have a different take.

Hope needs to schedule more aggressively.

The Flying Dutch can't help that Calvin is having a relatively down year, Trine graduated a ton and Albion has perhaps not reached the apex of its upswing. But there is no one on Hope's non-conference schedule who has recent NCAA Tournament success. It's not like this is a schedule that looked good a couple years ago and then some teams unexpectedly fell off.

Case Western is 8-6 and we can check on their record when they go on the road since their 3-0 start comes entirely at home. The Spartans haven't done better than 8-6 in conference in over a decade. Benedictine is a nice win right now but, nothing like beating Whitewater on the road and Illinois Wesleyan on a neutral court.

The fact that Hope leads the NCAA in scoring margin could mean that Hope is a Thomas More-style juggernaut. It could also mean Hope's schedule isn't very challenging. The closeness of the Trine and Albion results suggest its more the latter than the former.

Don't get me wrong. I think Hope is really, really good. But I don't know for certain because they haven't played anyone who's getting serious consideration for Top 25.

Full disclosure that my real bias here is I'd love-love-LOVE to have them come to the D3hoops.com Classic. But even if they didn't decide to do that, they can do better than playing Finlandia and North Park in Orlando over the holidays.

DePauw shouldn't be punished for playing a tougher schedule, if it comes down to that.

[scottiedawg]

* I don't know how much scrutiny is worth giving any team with less than, say, 10 points in the poll. Teams with less than five points are usually on one ballot, holding down one of the last spots. That's one slot out of 625 possible. Often (but not always) those are votes from someone in the same region or conference as that team. That's why we maintain geographic balance on the panel.

absolutely. All of this is an exercise that provides interest :-)   And probably fine for each voter to have some geographical bias, because those are likely where they've seen the most games in person. Which is why balance on the panel, as you said, is so important.

* I know some schools like to say they are ranked "No. 27" and that's a handy way of referencing teams receiving votes. But the reality is they aren't ranked anything because we don't ask people to rank the 27 best teams. If we did, the list would look very different. If I had five extra slots on my ballot, in some order they would go Pacific, Gettysburg, Transylvania, William Peace and Emory. That doesn't synch at all with the next five teams outside the poll.

I'm very intrigued by this.  So would you assume that "27th most voting points" when voting for only the top 25 teams, would look different than "27th most voting points" when voting for say, the top 40 teams?



Can't argue with your thoughts on Hope. Luther, Benedictine, and North park are really buoying Hope's Massey SOS.

of the D3hoops.com top 10, only Tufts, Bowdoin, Amherst, Transylvania, have a worse Massey SOS than Hope. Interesting that the top 3 all have relatively poor SOS, compared to the majority of the top 10.

It does seem like the women's side has a lot less parity, meaning you may have 20 teams with 0-2 losses on the year, with underwhelming schedules, that leave you wondering who is really good or not.

There are years where the "National championship game" occurs in the Elite 8.

Ideally, everything works together, and teams with amazing records against weak opponents don't get seeded well, don't get hosting opportunities, and are incentivized to schedule harder as a result.

Can someone point me to the NCAA D3 selection criteria?

[scottiedawg]

DePauw shouldn't be punished for playing a tougher schedule, if it comes down to that.

THIS.

You see this in college football too. They're not putting an undefeated Boise St., USF, or Houston in an elite elite bowl. Perhaps those teams could win on that stage, and even deserve the chance, but the message is clear: you HAVE to schedule SOMEONE.

Hope is not comparable to those 3 teams for sure; they're schedule has been plenty tough.

But I love the sentiment of rewarding teams that book a high quality schedule, and perform against it.

For the record, Hope's Massey SOS = 27, and DePauw's = 21.  Can't imagine there's a large difference in either the relative or absolute numbers driving those rankings.
(AND, once I educate myself on the NCAA's selection criteria, I'll be able to comment more informedly on this--I know Massey SOS contains games that the NCAA disregards)

[PauldingLightUP]

The NCAA Selection Criteria can be found on page 17 of the 19-20 pre-championship manual linked here:

http://www.ncaa.org/championships/division-iii-womens-basketball