Top 25 discussion

[scottiedawg]

Very interesting, thanks for the analysis.  I'd put Amherst in the same category as CNU and Transylvania with a very light resume this year.  But, Amherst always seems to reload and they've beaten everyone they've played...

Agreed on Amherst.

[Jester1390]

Ok I'm bias here but my kid is on rose.  They beat IWU and lost close games to DePauw and north park. I guarantee you they beat a lot of teams in top 50
Also a 7 point loss to Transylvania at their place. With Igehon rejoining the team they have the ability to run the conference including Transylvania at home 

[scottiedawg]

Sheesh, Rose has an impossible resume to peg. 4 losses, but only 1 "bad" one, and 2 vs very good teams. Their win at IWU looks better than any single win that CNU has.

In D3, where there's not much parity, and on the women's side, where there's even less, I think losses against good teams are more impressive than wins against the ~bottom 75% of teams.

[Jester1390]

i only brought up rose because they will be moving way up in massey, there loss to berea wouldnt happen now that the d-1 point guard is playing . With Igehon deciding to come back to play think this week against franklin will be her first game back . They now have 3 d-1 players in their lineup.  Baum being the best in my opinion. All 3 girls would get major minutes with top 10 teams

[scottiedawg]

Key players missing due to injury or other is absolutely something my analysis would never pick up or know about.

[RogK]

new poll :
https://www.d3hoops.com/top25/women/2021-22/week4
===

[gordonmann]

Nice to see some action on this page today!

The poll is now posted here.

As you can see, Marietta did get some love and entered the Top 25, as did Mary Washington and Wisconsin Lutheran.

Those who think Christopher Newport is overrated aren't going to like CNU rising to No. 2. I don't think the Captains schedule is that bad, but I understand that's what Massey says. Conference play, as modest as it is in terms of games, will help. Mary Washington, Salisbury and even UC Santa Cruz are all quality programs.

The race for No. 2 is tight with four teams receiving votes for that slot. I have Trine there for now on the strength of the Thunder's close loss to Hope (which I think is worlds above everyone else) and a convincing win over Baldwin Wallace. Previously I had UW-Eau Claire there and the Blugolds have a win over Trine, but they also have a loss to Calvin whom Trine trounced, plus a loss to Bethany Lutheran, which is very talented but only hovering around .500.

We're at a point now where data points will conflict with each other and voters will have to sort through them for themselves.

One of the toughest questions right now is what to do with teams that aren't playing. The Connecticut Lottery used to have the motto, "You can't win if you don't play." Some teams aren't playing but they are rising up the poll as teams around them lose. Amherst is No. 3 and hasn't played a game in a month. New York University is No. 11 and isn't even practicing right now -- all athletic activities are suspended there.

Setting the poll aside, I feel bad for the players and coaches. I also understand the cautionary approach. I am in no way criticizing programs for cancelling games and I realize it's likely not the players' or coaches' choice. Heck, Amherst intended to play half of the SCIAC in one week before COVID disrupted it.

But, for my own ballot, my approach  is, "You can't rise if you don't play, but you can drop if there are other teams that have proven they are potentially better." So Amherst is anchored on my ballot at a lower spot than they appear in the poll and NYU isn't on my ballot at all.

Here are a few more news and notes:

* Transylvania reaches its highest point ever in the poll. That win over Tufts looks even better after the Jumbos squashed Whitman-beater UC Santa Cruz. That win over John Carroll doesn't hurt either, plus Piedmont and Berea have nice winning percentages. With the combination of a strong resume and a central location, the Pioneers may not have to blaze a trail anywhere in March. They may host all the way through the HCAC and NCAA tournaments, until the national semifinals.

* Hope appears in the poll for the 300th time. The Flying Dutch are the only program to do that.

* Simpson appears in the poll for the 100th time. The Storm are the 26th program to have triple-digit appearances so break out the Jim Morrison, REO Speedwagon or Garth Brooks in celebration.

* I love it when a program enters the Top 25 for the first time. Three teams that have never been in our rankings are receiving votes -- Roger Williams, UC Santa Cruz and Drew. Hey, you gotta start somewhere!

[deiscanton]

Since we currently do not have a Women's DIII Top 25 Double Take segment on Hoopsville, it is great to see Gordon Mann's analysis on this week's poll.  Keep it up, Gordon.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Since we currently do not have a Women's DIII Top 25 Double Take segment on Hoopsville, it is great to see Gordon Mann's analysis on this week's poll.  Keep it up, Gordon.

FWIW, Dave is working on it.

[gordonmann]

Thanks, Alan.

As Ryan mentioned, Dave is working on something, potentially for the mid-week Hoopsville episode.

[CNU85]

I can see the argument about CNU not having a great SOS and playing a weak schedule. I wonder how much of the respect at being #2 is given due to the fact that if CNU had a tougher schedule that there probably wouldn't be much difference due to the history of the coach.  From his bio...."In seven of his first eight seasons, [Broderick] has led the squad to deep NCAA Tournament runs, including a Final Four effort in 2017, an Elite Eight appearance during the 2013 tournament, and Sweet 16 finishes in 2014, 2016, 2018, 2019, and 2020." and the 2020 season could have been even deeper, but we will never know due to COVID.

I'm not smart enough to figure out what impact this has, if any, on the voters.

[scottiedawg]

That could absolutely play a factor. Having played a weaker schedule isn't BAD information, it's just a lack of information.

And now we get into the philosophy of ranking. Should you (and do you even want to) ask voters to ignore that kind of information? Probably strong pros and cons. I'm reminded of Cincinnati when Kenyon Martin had a season ending injury, or Notre Dame when Brian Kelly left. Should pollsters/voters take that into account? (those are more extreme examples than just knowing who the existing head coach is ;-) )

[Jester1390]

what does   ssf el and ew stand for in massey and hfa

[CNU85]

Ch = change in ranking since previous update
Rating = overall assessment of the team's performance to this point in the season
Power = estimated team strength going forward (used to make predictions)
Offense = ability to score points
Defense = ability to prevent the opponent from scoring
HA = estimated home advantage
SchP = strength of schedule for games played so far
SchF = strength of schedule for all games, including those currently scheduled
E[W]-E[L] = expected wins and losses for remaining schedule

I would assume HFA is same as HA (Home Field Advantage)

[ronk]

What's the link for Massey D3 women's basketball? I've seen it for the men but not a way to get to the women's rankings.