Top 25 discussion

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

That's the reason we say (sometimes directly to schools) no one is ranked No. 26 in our poll, even if they are the highest team among "others receiving votes." 

Makes total sense. This is something I need to ruminate on for sure.

I guess one argument could be: "While I don't think ONU has a top 25 resume, there are a handful of teams that voters think DO, and I disagree with those opinions."

Would you think there are actual differences (beyond semantics) between "Ranked 26th" and "Received the 26th most 'Top 25' votes" ?

I do believe there's quite a difference.  Routinely there are teams most voters have in the 26-30 range in their estimation, but a few slip into the 20-25 spot.  Three #23 votes equals 9 points - which is unlikely to be very far up the "others receiving votes" list.  However, lets say we decided to rank a Top 30.  Now those three #23 votes are worth 24 points (because you'd have to extend the voting structure so a #30 vote equaled 1 point), but if that same team is listed on every other ballot between 25 and 30, lets say an average position of #28, you're adding 66 more points to the total and likely moving them pretty far up the list.

There's a real difference between a team everyone thinks is between 23 and 28 vs a team a few people think highly of and most everyone else isn't considering.

It would work the other way, as well.  If we only ranked 20 teams, you'd certainly see the "others receiving votes" in a different order than if you just moved the "bottom five" down.  Variances are especially likely towards the bottom of the poll when the difference between votes amounts to a much higher percentage of the team's total points.

[scottiedawg]

There's a real difference between a team everyone thinks is between 23 and 28 vs a team a few people think highly of and most everyone else isn't considering.

Totally. But to play devil's advocate and propose an extreme hypothetical, wouldn't you think that a team every voter would rank, say, 27th probably has a better resume than a team that 23-24 voters leave off the ballot and 1-2 voters put near the end of their top 25?

I'm guessing you agree. But logistics dictate you have to cut off a poll somewhere, and 25 seems as good a number as any?

Variances are especially likely towards the bottom of the poll when the difference between votes amounts to a much higher percentage of the team's total points.

Absolutely.

[gordonmann]

Wow. What Ryan said. I never would've put it that thoughtfully. Can we give +K to each other or is there some kind of conflict of interest blocker on this thing?

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

There's a real difference between a team everyone thinks is between 23 and 28 vs a team a few people think highly of and most everyone else isn't considering.

Totally. But to play devil's advocate and propose an extreme hypothetical, wouldn't you think that a team every voter would rank, say, 27th probably has a better resume than a team that 23-24 voters leave off the ballot and 1-2 voters put near the end of their top 25?

I'm guessing you agree. But logistics dictate you have to cut off a poll somewhere, and 25 seems as good a number as any?

Variances are especially likely towards the bottom of the poll when the difference between votes amounts to a much higher percentage of the team's total points.

Absolutely.

I can't disagree with you.  I was just trying to explain why "26th most votes in the Top 25 poll" is different from "26th in the Top 25 poll."  I doubt there is a ballot taken where this doesn't come into play - maybe not the the extreme of my example, but certainly in a way that would make calling the ORV list the 26-35th best teams in D3.

This week there's only six points separating 25th SJF and the 26th highest vote getter, Bates.  It's not outrageous to think even just adding a 26th spot to the ballot could change their positions.

[Darryl Nester]

How They Fared (So Far)

... That's the reason we say (sometimes directly to schools) no one is ranked No. 26 in our poll, even if they are the highest team among "others receiving votes." 

(Sheepishly realizing that my report routinely lists ranking numbers for positions 26 through 42.)

Top 25

Rank	Pts	Team	W-L	Results
#1	625	Hope	16-0	def. Olivet, 96-31; won at St. Mary's (Ind.), 101-41; 01/22 vs. Alma
#2	592	Christopher Newport	15-0	won at Methodist, 89-39; 01/22 at T#42 Salisbury
#3	555	Transylvania	13-0	won at Hanover, 84-60; 01/22 at Rose-Hulman
#4	526	Simpson	14-1	01/19 vs. Central postponed; 01/22 vs. Coe
#5	518	Trine	13-2	won at #33 Albion, 69-56
#6	481	UW-Whitewater	16-1	won at UW-La Crosse, 60-48; 01/22 at #18 UW-Eau Claire
#7	477	Amherst	10-1	won at Williams, 73-59; 01/22 vs. Hamilton
#8	473	Whitman	14-1	def. Pacific, 57-47; def. Linfield, 65-48; 01/21 at George Fox; 01/22 at Lewis and Clark
#9	424	New York University	12-0	01/21 at Washington U.; 01/23 at Chicago
#10	380	Tufts	12-2	def. New Jersey City, 65-61; 01/19 vs. Stevenson canceled; 01/22 vs. #26 Bates
#11	335	Baldwin Wallace	10-3	LOST at #12 John Carroll, 65-68; 01/22 vs. Wilmington
#12	318	John Carroll	12-2	def. #11 Baldwin Wallace, 68-65; 01/22 vs. Muskingum
#13	281	Wartburg	12-2	won at Loras, 84-82
#14	266	DePauw	13-2	won at Denison, 78-42; 01/22 vs. Wooster
#15	223	Springfield	15-0	won at Middlebury, 69-56; 01/22 vs. Wellesley
#16	186	Marietta	15-1	def. Capital, 91-69; 01/22 at T#42 Ohio Northern
#17	180	Hardin-Simmons	12-2	01/20 vs. #20 East Texas Baptist; 01/22 vs. Belhaven
#18	165	UW-Eau Claire	13-4	def. UW-River Falls, 62-49; 01/22 vs. #6 UW-Whitewater
#19	163	Bowdoin	13-3	01/18 vs. Maine-Presque Isle postponed; 01/22 at Colby
#20	135	East Texas Baptist	10-3	01/20 at #17 Hardin-Simmons; 01/22 at McMurry
#21	133	Wisconsin Lutheran	12-0	def. Marian, 63-46; 01/22 vs. Concordia-Chicago
#22	103	Mary Washington	13-3	LOST at Swarthmore, 60-65; 01/22 vs. Emory and Henry
#23	99	UW-Oshkosh	12-3	def. UW-Platteville, 66-56; 01/22 at UW-River Falls
#24	92	Mary Hardin-Baylor	13-2	won at Concordia (Texas), 67-58; 01/20 at University of the Ozarks
#25	62	St. John Fisher	13-1	won at Alfred, 67-28; 01/21 vs. Houghton

Others receiving votes

Rank	Pts	Team	W-L	Results
#26	56	Bates	11-3	01/22 at #10 Tufts
#27	48	Texas-Dallas	7-3	01/17 at LeTourneau canceled; 01/20 at Sul Ross State; 01/22 at Howard Payne
#28	42	Messiah	13-2	def. Widener, 77-53; won at Hood, 70-34; 01/22 vs. Eastern
#29	35	Trinity (Texas)	12-2	01/21 vs. St. Thomas (Texas); 01/23 vs. Colorado College
#30	34	Catholic	12-1	won at Juniata, 79-43; 01/22 at Moravian
#31	24	Smith	11-1	def. #34 WPI, 56-53; 01/22 vs. Clark
#32	19	Roger Williams	14-0	def. Gordon, 85-31; won at Endicott, 57-56; 01/22 vs. Wentworth
#33	17	Albion	13-4	LOST to #5 Trine, 56-69; 01/22 vs. Adrian
#34	10	WPI	12-2	LOST at #31 Smith, 53-56; 01/22 at Mount Holyoke
#35	9	Millikin	13-4	LOST at Illinois Wesleyan, 51-73; 01/22 at Augustana
T#36	8	Augsburg	11-3	def. St. Scholastica, 74-39; 01/22 vs. Hamline
T#36	8	Gettysburg	11-2	def. Dickinson, 58-44; 01/22 at Washington College
T#36	8	Scranton	14-2	def. T#42 Salisbury, 63-55; won at Moravian, 69-51; 01/22 vs. Elizabethtown
#39	7	Gustavus Adolphus	11-2	won at Carleton, 69-48; 01/22 vs. Bethel
#40	3	Redlands	11-2	won at Pomona-Pitzer, 80-72; def. La Verne, 80-51; 01/22 at Claremont-Mudd-Scripps
#41	2	UC Santa Cruz	8-2	01/20 vs. Simpson (Cal.) canceled; 01/23 at Cal Lutheran
T#42	1	Ohio Northern	10-4	won at Heidelberg, 54-39; 01/22 vs. #16 Marietta
T#42	1	Puget Sound	13-2	def. Pacific Lutheran, 70-58; 01/21 vs. Pacific
T#42	1	Salisbury	12-3	LOST at T#36 Scranton, 55-63; 01/22 vs. #2 Christopher Newport

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Well, they are #26 in point total, even if they're not #26 in the poll.  I think your list delineates that about as well as the format allows.

[CNU85]

another way to emphasize why you can't really rank teams past #25....look at the last poll.....About 45 teams received votes...the top 25 plus the ORV. But let's say all 25 voters in the poll had BRJBU (Billy Ray Jim Bob University) ranked #26 on their lists. All 25 then vote and none of them write down BRJBU because they ALL have them listed as #26. Then BRJBU would not appear on the  ORV at all and thus nobody would know that they are about to break into the top 25. It's an extreme example, but it makes the point.

[scottiedawg]

It does complicate discussions. I may say "BRJBU doesn't deserve to be in the top 25, but I feel like they're more deserving than these 3-4 teams that voter(s) did think were deserving of a spot in the top 25"  There's a tremendous amount of nuance there, and perhaps it's not even worth debating whether teams that only a few voters put in the back end of the top 25 deserve that or not.

[ronk]

 Maybe we could discuss what the regional rankings would be as of now, at least the regions that one follows most closely. I'd propose region 5 for myself, for example. After refining those rankings in the next 3 weeks, we could see how close we r to the 1st official rankings then.

[scottiedawg]

I recall someone (the NCAA?) posts OWP and OOWP data for every team. Does someone know where I can find a link to that?

I had it years ago but have lost it.

[gordonmann]

One of the Calvin fans used to post it on the men's side -- http://tomaroonandgold.blogspot.com/p/division-iii-mens-regional-rankings.html

We did the women's calculation through our site here. I pitty the fools who have to audit these schedules with the constant changes in whether a game is played or not.

What's that? The fools are who? Oh

[scottiedawg]

We did the women's calculation through our site here.

"Did" as in not anymore?

Because as much as I'd like to take a crack at a Region 7 regional ranking, you can't really without complete SOS data (and I'm sure not calculating it myself!)

[ronk]

 You could use Massey's SOS data; it's not the raw number but is the ranking relative to every other team. Then u could those rankings and the difference between teams in that regard. That should be sufficient for our purposes.

[scottiedawg]

Do we know how Massey calculates SOS? Cause if it's different at all from the NCAA prescribed way, it won't be useful.

Code Select Expand


• Division III strength-of-schedule (SOS).
- Opponents' Average Winning Percentage (OWP) (weighted 2/3).
- Opponents' Opponents' Average Winning Percentage (OOWP) (weighted 1/3).
- Add the two numbers to get the team's strength-of-schedule


[RogK]

I'm of the opinion that losing a game should not improve one's SOS, even though it improves the opponents' average winning percentage.
Conversely, the Hope women should not diminish their own SOS as they beat everybody.
The games any particular team are involved in should be excluded from the calculation of their opponents' average winning percentage.