Top 25 discussion

[gordonmann]

I think it's a relevant variable, though there's definitely subjectivity in how heavily you weight it.

When a game was played impacts at least which players were involved, especially this season when players miss games due to COVID or COVID exposure all the time.

DePauw lost two games over Christmas at least partly because Mya Shannon was out, and now she's not. Wheaton (Ill.) before Annie Tate got hurt was a much better team than without her. So wins and losses against the Thunder should be discounted appropriately.

And I think it's fair to assume that teams evolve, for better or worse, throughout a season.

[ronk]

 If u want to mirror criteria used for regional rankings, a result in November is supposed be the same as one in February. However, if it's to be used for a Top 25 ballot where the eye test can be included(among other criteria not used in the regional rankings), then it's admissible - citing musings from Gordon that such and such happened in the 1st month when adjusting his current ballot.

[scottiedawg]

If u want to mirror criteria used for regional rankings, a result in November is supposed be the same as one in February.

Good point and to be clear, I'm not trying to replicate or predict the Regional Rankings.

Just experimenting with ways that could improve how we evaluate teams.

[ronk]

 Carry on then and appreciate your efforts in spotlighting the women's top 25 discussion.

[Baldini]

Simpson's win over Wartburg is the 3rd highest rated win yet Dubuque's win over Wartburg just doesn't make the list. Or Redlands win over Wartburg. If anything, Dubuque's win should be higher rated because they softened up Wartburg for Simpson by pushing them to OT.

Amherst's win over Tufts when they were missing one of their best players is your 2nd highest rated games yet Transylvania's win against Tufts complete squad doesn't cut it.

UW-Stout over UW-EC is a big win, but not Bethany Lutheran, Calvin, UW-WW or UW-Oshkosh winning against UW-EC not good enough.

See a pattern here?

I get your wanting to be the Jerry Palm of D3 women's hoops, but this is garbage in, garbage out kind of stuff.     

[scottiedawg]

You brought up 2 detractors that I specifically called out as aspects I did not account for. You seem to infer my posts as definitive statements, when I take special care to use language indicating I'm not.

And for this: "UW-Stout over UW-EC is a big win, but not Bethany Lutheran, Calvin, UW-WW or UW-Oshkosh winning against UW-EC not good enough." take it up with Massey. Massey LOVES UW-EC. I'd be happy to consider using a different statistical ranking that ranks teams 1-430.

UW-Oshkosh
UW-LaCrosse
UW-Whitewater
Calvin

wins over UW-EC were close in "scott's value" for sure, but scored less because they were all home wins. Stout beat them on the road.

[scottiedawg]

Bethany Lutheran's win might absolutely be up there.  At this point I'm only tracking 57 teams (tried to cover everyone getting votes in the D3hoops.com poll and at the top of Massey).

We'll see when I get to inputting more data. There are currently 11 teams higher ranked in Massey than Bethany Luth, that I haven't added in yet.
WashU
Bethel MN
Johns Hopkins
Rochester
UW-Platteville
Elizabethtown
Otterbein
Emory
Wheaton IL
Oberlin
RIC

[Baldini]

I have no issue with Massey's love of UW-EC, they are a fine team. I do find it interesting that you left Bethany Lutheran out of your reply concerning UW-ECs loses because their win was AT UW-EC. This goes back to my first comment that you took issue with; this comes across as just more manipulation of data to get the wanted results.   

[scottiedawg]

Looks like Bethany Lutheran's win over Eau Claire was on a neutral court? (lemme know if Massey has that wrong).

It's another close one in "scott's value" for sure, but closer to the other 4 than to Stout's. A neutral court win 75 days ago gets valued a little bit less than a road win 23 days ago. (not saying one is "quality" and one isn't, just stating my relative valuation between them).

And going back to the principles here, it's not that I have the exact right values for discounting home wins vs. road wins, or for discounting a win 90 days ago vs. 10 days ago, but by applying values to them, we actually get to have a structured conversation.

A voter ranking say Wisconsin Lutheran above Marietta is doing the exact same thing, just probably not in as written-down and public a manner.  Every voter is implicitly or explicitly placing a value on winning percentage, opponent strength, trends, and much more.

[Baldini]

The Bethany Lutheran game was at UW-EC, was not a neutral court game.

[scottiedawg]

Nice slate of road games today:
UW-LaCrosse @ UW-Eau Claire
John Carroll @ Marietta
UW-Oshkosh @ UW-Stout
Carroll @ Millikin
Christopher Newport @ Wheaton
UW-Whitewater @ UW-River Falls
WPI @ Springfield
Trine @ Alma
Puget Sound @ Willamette
Mary Hardin-Baylor @ UT Dallas
Bates @ Trinity CT
Salisbury @ Mary Washington
Amherst @ Colby
Catholic @ Drew
E Tx Baptist @ Sul Ross

There are no matchups of 2 D3Hoops.com top 25 teams.

But there are 3 matchups including teams getting votes (and there's a top 25 team in each matchup)
#9 John Carroll at "#26" Marietta
#15 Mary Hardin-Baylor at "#34" Texas-Dallas
#23 Springfield at "38" Worcester Tech

23 of the top 25 teams are scheduled to be in action today.
(No NYU or Messiah)

[saratoga]

Trinity can sneak up on anyone.
They have a few kids out right now & they did lose a head scratcher to Conn. College but they can become very, very good.
They now have two D-1 transfers in Gallo from UNH & now a mid-year newcomer in Campbell from Lafayette.
Both 6'1 quick, agile, & scorers.
If they can get at full strength or close to it heading down stretch, they may make some noise in the NESCAC tourney.

[Augie2020]

I Have a question-In any division do you have to have a certain amount of games played to go into the ncaa?

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I Have a question-In any division do you have to have a certain amount of games played to go into the ncaa?

Yes, there is a minimum. D2 has already lowered theirs for this year. D3 might as well. It might be 15 or 18 normally. I don't know off hand.

[deiscanton]

I Have a question-In any division do you have to have a certain amount of games played to go into the ncaa?

Yes, there is a minimum. D2 has already lowered theirs for this year. D3 might as well. It might be 15 or 18 normally. I don't know off hand.

I believe that 18 is the minimum number of games that a DIII basketball team have to play in a normal season to be eligible for Pool C at-large consideration to the NCAA tournament, absent a waiver from the Championships Committee.