Top 25 discussion

[scottiedawg]

Worst current SOS for teams receiving votes:
Webster: 0.463
Wisconsin Lutheran: 0.485
Trinity Texas: 0.487
Roger Williams: 0.489
Rhodes: 0.491
Albion: 0.493
Gustavus Adolphus: 0.496
Augsburg: 0.510

[gordonmann]

IMO, no chance NESCAC gets 4 teams in this year.  I think Trinity gets in if they make it to the NESCAC finals.

Unlike Dave, Ryan and Pat on the men's side, I'm really bad at predicting who is an at-large candidate for the women. It's laughable how bad I am.

That said, I can't remember the last time the NESCAC had fewer than three teams in the tournament. So I'd expect Tufts, Amherst and one other (probably Trinity) to be in the field. But who knows (the answer is not me).

[RogK]

Would it be safe to say the average SOS across D3 is .500 every year?

[gordonmann]

The median strength-of-schedule across the 426 teams we track is .503 right now. I think we're missing Asbury and maybe one other school that's in the NCAA's data sheets but not on our site.

[Flying Dutch Fan]

Would it be safe to say the average SOS across D3 is .500 every year?

I think that would be a mathmatical certainty, provided SOS only includes games against DIII opponents

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

I'm not gonna be a good source of NCAA selection predictions. If I am it'll be straight from Matt Snyder's data.

There are some very interesting conclusions to draw from the first men's ordered regional rankings though. NCAA might be weighting the criteria a bit differently than in years past. (And I'm a BIG fan of the inferred changes).

Remember ... these are DIII coaches and administrators who measure and gauge the data and make selections... not the "NCAA." Indy doesn't do anything but help with the process.

And as Ryan stated ... you cannot take what the men are doing and infer what the women will do ... or vis versa... the SOS number is calculated differently, for starters, so they read the number differently. Men have historically leaned on the SOS and other data hard and given a pass to poorer WL% ... while the women tend to reward those who got through the season with solid WL%.

[7express]

IMO, no chance NESCAC gets 4 teams in this year.  I think Trinity gets in if they make it to the NESCAC finals.

Unlike Dave, Ryan and Pat on the men's side, I'm really bad at predicting who is an at-large candidate for the women. It's laughable how bad I am.

That said, I can't remember the last time the NESCAC had fewer than three teams in the tournament. So I'd expect Tufts, Amherst and one other (probably Trinity) to be in the field. But who knows (the answer is not me).

IMO, no chance NESCAC gets 4 teams in this year.  I think Trinity gets in if they make it to the NESCAC finals.

Just to bring up another conversation that Mr Maus brought up a couple days ago.I don't see the Nescac getting 3 or 4 teams in(women)!I think only way you get 3 teams from nescac is Trinity wins the Nescac

The ONLY chance NESCAC has at getting 4 is if it is Trinity vs. anyone other than Amherst/Tufts in the finals and Trinity loses in which case that may knock out Trinity anyways.

Amherst & Tufts are locks, outside of that I'm not sure who else would get in.  If Trinity loses in the quarterfinals or semifinals and the Tufts/Amherst winner ends up winning the whole thing those could very likely be the only 2 teams from the conference in.

[Darryl Nester]

How They Fared (So Far)

Top 25

Rank	Pts	Team	W-L	Results
#1	601	Christopher Newport	21-0	02/19 vs. Salisbury
#2	585	Hope	22-1	won at Adrian, 75-45; 02/19 at Kalamazoo
#3	583	Trine	21-2	def. St. Mary's (Ind.), 95-44; 02/19 at Adrian
#4	555	Transylvania	20-0	def. Hanover, 77-54; 02/18 at Earlham
#5	533	Simpson	22-1	def. Nebraska Wesleyan, 96-46; 02/19 at Central
#6	498	Whitman	22-1	02/18 vs. Lewis and Clark; 02/19 vs. George Fox
#7	472	UW-Whitewater	22-3	LOST at #31 UW-Oshkosh, 57-60
#8	446	New York University	19-1	02/18 vs. Washington U.; 02/20 vs. Chicago
#9	387	Amherst	19-2	def. New Jersey City, 56-52
#10	386	Baldwin Wallace	17-4	LOST to #13 John Carroll, 54-67; 02/19 vs. Capital
#11	365	Tufts	19-3	02/20 vs. Wesleyan or Hamilton
#12	340	DePauw	21-2	def. Denison, 81-33; 02/19 at Ohio Wesleyan
#13	306	John Carroll	19-3	won at #10 Baldwin Wallace, 67-54; 02/19 vs. Wilmington
#14	291	Mary Hardin-Baylor	20-2	02/17 vs. Belhaven; 02/19 vs. #22 East Texas Baptist
#15	259	Wisconsin Lutheran	20-1	LOST at St. Norbert, 56-59
#16	257	Messiah	20-2	def. Hood, 74-29; 02/19 at Widener
#17	214	Scranton	22-2	def. Susquehanna, 69-41; 02/19 vs. #23 Catholic
#18	174	Trinity (Texas)	22-2	won at Schreiner, 88-75; 02/20 at University of Dallas
#19	155	Wartburg	19-4	won at Coe, 72-59; 02/19 vs. Loras
#20	128	Smith	20-2	won at Emerson, 79-34; 02/19 vs. Wellesley
#21	101	St. John Fisher	23-2	def. Elmira, 80-50
#22	99	East Texas Baptist	17-4	02/17 at Concordia (Texas); 02/19 at #14 Mary Hardin-Baylor
#23	72	Catholic	19-3	LOST at Elizabethtown, 57-65; 02/19 at #17 Scranton
#24	44	Springfield	20-3	def. Coast Guard, 76-43; 02/19 at Mount Holyoke
#25	43	Hardin-Simmons	16-4	02/17 vs. Sul Ross State; 02/19 vs. Howard Payne

Others receiving votes

Rank	Pts	Team	W-L	Results
#26	39	Marietta	20-4	won at Capital, 71-44; 02/19 at Heidelberg
T#27	31	Ithaca	20-3	won at Rochester Tech, 76-51; 02/18 vs. Bard; 02/19 vs. Vassar
T#27	31	UC Santa Cruz	14-3	02/19 vs. Simpson (Cal.)
#29	28	DeSales	17-3	won at Delaware Valley, 86-48; 02/19 vs. Lycoming
#30	22	Gettysburg	21-3	won at McDaniel, 59-47; 02/19 at Swarthmore
#31	19	UW-Oshkosh	18-5	def. #7 UW-Whitewater, 60-57
#32	14	Rhodes	20-2	def. Hendrix, 68-62; 02/20 vs. Hendrix
#33	13	Albion	18-6	def. Alma, 56-43; 02/19 at Calvin
#34	10	Gustavus Adolphus	19-4	won at Hamline, 62-47; def. St. Benedict, 57-36
T#35	7	UW-Eau Claire	18-7	def. UW-Platteville, 73-53
T#35	7	Webster	21-0	won at Spalding, 91-64; 02/17 vs. Spalding; 02/19 at Blackburn
#37	6	Trinity (Conn.)	16-5	IDLE
#38	3	Roger Williams	21-2	won at Suffolk, 63-57; 02/19 vs. Western New England
#39	1	Augsburg	19-5	won at Macalester, 67-51; won at Concordia-Moorhead, 70-59

[scottiedawg]

From @d3hoops Twitter:

Women's #NCAAD3 Top 16 - per criteria:
1 - Chris. Newport
2 - Transylvania
3 - Simpson
4 - Amherst
5 - Tufts
6 - Smith
7 - UW-Whitewater
8 - Scranton
9 - Trine
10 - NYU
11 - Depauw
12 - Hope
13 - UMHB
14 - Gettysburg
15 - Ithaca
16 - Messiah
#d3hoops ^DM

[Baldini]

From @d3hoops Twitter:

Women's #NCAAD3 Top 16 - per criteria:
1 - Chris. Newport
2 - Transylvania
3 - Simpson
4 - Amherst
5 - Tufts
6 - Smith
7 - UW-Whitewater
8 - Scranton
9 - Trine
10 - NYU
11 - Depauw
12 - Hope
13 - UMHB
14 - Gettysburg
15 - Ithaca
16 - Messiah
#d3hoops ^DM

If anyone would like to watch the actual selections this is the link.

https://www.ncaa.com/video/basketball-men/2022-02-17/diii-basketball-mens-and-womens-top-16-reveal

[gordonmann]

Well. Sort of puts the CNU schedule discussion in a different light.

[scottiedawg]

Some thoughts & conclusions:

Based on the criteria, CNU is the far and away #1.

It's clear the committee weighted the undefeated quality of Transylvania (both overrall and vs RRO) very highly. Amherst, Tufts, Smith, all had much superior SOS to Transylvania, AND many more RRO wins.

One that sticks out to me is Gettysburg. The 2 teams below them are better or even in basically all criteria.

NYU looks to have been docked for their SOS (5th worst SOS among the top 16). Other than that, they have a sparkling Win %, many RRO wins, AND a fantastic RRO Win %.

The committee appears to be most rewarding:
Being undefeated
Combo of # of RRO wins and RRO win %

It would appear that the underlying quality of either being undefeated or the nature of your RRO wins take a back seat.

[scottiedawg]

   
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     

Rank	Team	W	L	Win%	SOS	RRO W	RRO L	RRO Wins	RRO Losses	RRO Wins avg reg rank #	RRO Losses avg reg rank #
1	Chris Newport	21	0	100.00	56.90	8	0	UC Santa Cruz, Gettysburg, Wheaton IL, Salisbury, Mary Washington x2, S Virginia, Marymount VA		6.13	#DIV/0!
2	Transylvania	19	0	100.00	56.40	4	0	Tufts, John Carroll, Piedmont, Berea		4.25	#DIV/0!
3	Simpson IA	21	1	95.45	56.90	6	1	Wartburg x2, Loras x2, Gust Adolphus, Bethany Luth	UW-Eau Claire	5.33	3.00
4	Amherst	18	2	90.00	60.20	7	1	Tufts, Bowdoin, Babson, Bates, Trinity CT, RIC, Emmanuel	Bates	4.86	5.00
5	Tufts	19	3	86.36	63.70	9	3	UC Santa Cruz, Babson, Bowdoin, Trinity CT, Bates, WPI x2, Vassar, Rowan	Transylvania, Amherst, Trinity CT	5.63	2.00
6	Smith	19	2	90.48	61.70	9	2	Springfield, Babson, Roger Williams, MIT, WPI, Trinity CT, New Paltz, Vassar, Rowan	Tufts, Bowdoin	4.56	5.50
7	UW-Whitewater	22	2	91.67	59.30	5	3	Eau Claire, Oshkosh, Loras, IWU, Calvin	Eau Claire, Carroll, UW-Oshkosh	6.00	4.67
8	Scranton	21	2	91.30	57.60	6	2	Elizabethtown x2, Catholic, Salisbury, King's PA, Stevens	Ithaca, Stevens	5.67	2.00
9	Trine	20	2	90.91	56.30	5	2	Hope, Calvin x2, BW, Ohio Northern	Hope, Eau Claire	7.20	3.00
10	NYU	19	1	95.00	55.80	7	1	Chicago, WashU, Emory x2, Rochester, Vassar, Kean	Rochester	5.71	6.00
11	DePauw	20	2	90.91	53.80	5	2	Calvin, Millikin x2, Oberlin, WashU	Messiah, Piedmont	6.20	4.50
12	Hope	19	1	95.00	54.30	4	1	Trine, Calvin x2, BW	Trine	6.00	1.00
13	Mary Hardin-Baylor	20	2	90.91	52.90	6	1	ETBU, UT Dallas x2, Hardin-Simmons x2, Rhodes	Trinity TX	5.83	4.00
14	Gettysburg	20	3	86.96	56.80	3	3	Messiah, Johns Hopkins, Stevens	CNU, Mary Washington, Johns Hopkins	3.33	3.00
15	Ithaca	19	3	86.36	54.70	5	3	Scranton, St. Lawrence x2, SJF, Hartwick	Rochester, Cortland St., Vassar	4.80	4.33
16	Messiah	19	2	90.48	57.50	4	2	DePauw, DeSales, York PA, Salisbury	Gettysburg, York PA	4.50	4.00

** some of the data in the last 4 columns is a bit off. I haven't included all games over the last few days yet. (e.g. Whitewater loss) should be updated now

[scottiedawg]

Well. Sort of puts the CNU schedule discussion in a different light.

Not really.

The correlation coefficient between Massey SOS and Win% (via Massey) is  -0.167782655. (only negative because I used SOS rank and not the actual SOS #)

So however Massey is calculating SOS, winning percentage doesn't appear to be a particularly strong input.

At the end of the day you gotta settle on a model.

Correlation between D3 Win% and NCAA SOS is 0.32.

Caveat--there's a very decent chance I completely botched math. College statistics was a long time ago.

[Augie2020]

Was the committee a little behind because they had Scranton at 19-2 and they are 22-2.So was this done tonight or a couple days ago?