Top 25 discussion

[Darryl Nester]

How They Fared (Complete)

UCSC vs. Lincoln scheduled to tip at 5:00pm EST; will add that score later.
(Edit: I knew that seemed unlikely; it's currently early in the 4th quarter.)
(Edit #2: UCSC wins 97-69.)

Top 25

Rank	Pts	Team	W-L	Results
#1	610	Christopher Newport	23-0	won at Salisbury, 69-44
#2	601	Transylvania	23-0	def. Mount St. Joseph, 84-33; won at Anderson, 69-38
#3	579	Scranton	23-0	def. Drew, 54-42; won at #32 Elizabethtown, 79-72 OT
#4	534	Trinity (Texas)	22-1	def. University of Dallas, 109-47; def. Austin, 84-40
#5	523	Smith	22-1	won at T#38 Springfield, 74-56; def. #14 Babson, 80-67
#6	503	New York University	19-2	def. #13 Chicago, 80-44; def. #22 Washington U., 63-60
#7	487	Hope	21-2	def. #17 Calvin, 71-59; def. Olivet, 95-18
#8	441	Hardin-Simmons	21-2	won at University of the Ozarks, 59-44; won at McMurry, 120-66
#9	429	DeSales	22-1	def. Delaware Valley, 74-37; def. Immaculata, 88-54
#10	354	Ohio Northern	20-3	LOST at #19 Baldwin Wallace, 62-66 OT; def. John Carroll, 68-58
#11	339	Ithaca	21-2	def. Rochester Tech, 78-46; won at Clarkson, 72-64; won at St. Lawrence, 72-53
#12	333	Trinity (Conn.)	20-4	LOST at Bates, 53-61; LOST at T#41 Tufts, 56-57
#13	307	Chicago	18-4	LOST at #6 New York University, 44-80; won at Brandeis, 79-60
#14	264	Babson	19-4	won at Wellesley, 77-49; LOST at #5 Smith, 67-80
#15	247	Messiah	21-2	won at Alvernia, 59-49; def. Eastern, 63-52
#16	210	Puget Sound	19-4	def. Linfield, 70-42; LOST to Pacific, 62-73
#17	196	Calvin	18-5	LOST at #7 Hope, 59-71; LOST to #18 Trine, 54-59
#18	175	Trine	18-5	def. Kalamazoo, 82-45; won at #17 Calvin, 59-54
#19	170	Baldwin Wallace	20-3	def. #10 Ohio Northern, 66-62 OT; def. Muskingum, 69-44
#20	160	UW-Whitewater	19-5	won at #29 UW-Oshkosh, 67-55; def. UW-Stout, 78-75
#21	157	Gustavus Adolphus	21-2	def. #35 Concordia-Moorhead, 82-56; def. St. Catherine, 69-55
#22	111	Washington U.	16-6	won at Brandeis, 65-49; LOST at #6 New York University, 60-63
#23	78	La Verne	21-2	won at Cal Lutheran, 66-53; LOST to Pomona-Pitzer, 84-88
#24	57	Wartburg	19-4	won at Central, 65-57; def. Buena Vista, 80-67
#25	38	Rochester	15-7	LOST at Case Western Reserve, 60-78; won at Carnegie Mellon, 68-60

Others receiving votes

Rank	Pts	Team	W-L	Results
T#26	26	UW-Eau Claire	18-6	def. UW-Platteville, 65-59; won at UW-Stevens Point, 72-60
T#26	26	Washington and Jefferson	21-2	def. Thiel, 59-42; won at Waynesburg, 74-50
#28	24	Berea	21-2	LOST at LaGrange, 59-74; won at Piedmont, 64-48
#29	21	UW-Oshkosh	17-7	LOST to #20 UW-Whitewater, 55-67; LOST at UW-La Crosse, 42-56
#30	20	Loras	19-4	def. Luther, 79-50; def. Nebraska Wesleyan, 91-30
#31	19	Stevens	20-3	def. Arcadia, 72-36; won at King's, 81-43
#32	17	Elizabethtown	19-3	def. Catholic, 68-58; LOST to #3 Scranton, 72-79 OT
#33	14	Millikin	19-4	won at Illinois Wesleyan, 82-65; won at Carthage, 79-70
#34	13	SUNY New Paltz	20-3	def. SUNY Geneseo, 67-37; def. Brockport, 60-37
#35	10	Concordia-Moorhead	19-4	LOST at #21 Gustavus Adolphus, 56-82; def. St. Scholastica, 87-57
#36	9	Emory	15-6	won at Carnegie Mellon, 70-59; won at Case Western Reserve, 79-48
#37	7	UC Santa Cruz	17-5	def. Lincoln (Calif.), 97-69
T#38	6	Springfield	15-8	LOST to #5 Smith, 56-74; def. Emerson, 81-47
T#38	6	St. John Fisher	21-2	def. Utica, 118-64; won at Nazareth, 78-68
#40	2	Roger Williams	20-3	won at Salve Regina, 64-27; won at Wentworth, 74-52
T#41	1	East Texas Baptist	17-5	def. Sul Ross State, 59-49
T#41	1	Tufts	18-6	def. Wesleyan, 72-60; def. #12 Trinity (Conn.), 57-56

[scottiedawg]

Biggest Vote Gainers
Baldwin Wallace: +114
Gustavus Adolphus: +111
Wartburg: +89
UW-Whitewater: +86
Trine: +74
Millikin: +36
Loras: +35
Ithaca: +32
Messiah: +29
Washington & Jefferson: +21
Tufts: +15
East Texas Baptist: +13
NYU: +8
Stevens: +7
Elizabethtown: +6
Christopher Newport: +4
WashU: +4
SUNY New Paltz: +3
St. John Fisher: +3
Trinity (Texas): +2
Smith: +1

Biggest Vote Decliners
Trinity (Conn): -177
Calvin: -123
Puget Sound: -88
Chicago: -70
Ohio Northern: -67
La Verne: -55
Rochester: -30
Babson: -24
Berea: -21
Transylvania: -13
UW-Oshkosh: -13
Emory: -9
UC Santa Cruz: -7
Hope: -6
Springfield: -6
UW-Eau Claire: -5
Scranton: -4
DeSales: -2
Hardin-Simmons: -1
Concordia Moorhead: -1

[Augie2020]

So explain Scottiedawg How a team like Etown gains points for losing and the team that beat them on their homecourt loses points?That is interesting if you can explain it thank you.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

So explain Scottiedawg How a team like Etown gains points for losing and the team that beat them on their homecourt loses points?That is interesting if you can explain it thank you.

The game went to OT which is a tie except we force someone to win. E'town gained 6 points which could be as simple as a single voter seeing a team that was 19-2 go to OT against an unbeaten #3 ranked team and deciding maybe I should have them on my ballot and placing them 19th.
Scranton lost an entire 4 votes. Transylvania won their two games by a combined 153-71 and lost 13 votes.
No game is in a vacuum, the whole landscape ebbs and flows with hundreds of games.

[Roundball999]

So explain Scottiedawg How a team like Etown gains points for losing and the team that beat them on their homecourt loses points?That is interesting if you can explain it thank you.

The game went to OT which is a tie except we force someone to win. E'town gained 6 points which could be as simple as a single voter seeing a team that was 19-2 go to OT against an unbeaten #3 ranked team and deciding maybe I should have them on my ballot and placing them 19th.
Scranton lost an entire 4 votes. Transylvania won their two games by a combined 153-71 and lost 13 votes.
No game is in a vacuum, the whole landscape ebbs and flows with hundreds of games.

Similarly, Hope had a wire to wire solid win over #17 Calvin in regulation then destroyed Olivet 95-18 - and lost more points than Scranton.  Voters are human and they must have felt the other top teams had comparatively stronger performances. 

[scottiedawg]

So explain Scottiedawg How a team like Etown gains points for losing and the team that beat them on their homecourt loses points?That is interesting if you can explain it thank you.

It's a great question!

I think FCG and Roundball already hit it, but +- ~10 "vote points" can happen for so many reasons, a lot of them pretty insignificant. 

The way I personally looked at Etown this year was a team with fantastic Winning%, but really bad SOS (whether you look at Massey, NCAA SOS).  But then they played stronger teams and kept winning. (did take a few losses). Then they played Scranton, on the road, and took them to overtime. And for me, that result, even though it was a loss, brings so much validation to all their wins this year. I heartily applaud the voters for not blindly dropping a team 50+ points, just because they lost.

I see so much more parity this year than last. More parity means that in general, losses shouldn't be treated as harshly as years where there is less parity.

Once you get past #7-8, all the teams have some big flaws (relatively haven't beat strong teams [DeSales, Messiah, Calvin, Ithaca]), (taken more than a few losses recently [Babson, Trinity Conn, Chicago, Calvin, Trine, BW, ONU, Puget, WashU])

It's easy to see why HSU, Wartburg, and Gustavus have gained a lot of votes and moved up a lot over the past month. They've played good teams and haven't lost.

[scottiedawg]

they must have felt the other top teams had comparatively stronger performances.

comparatively stronger performances

Well said! This is the complex job that voters have and I think they've done a great job at it.

[ronk]

So explain Scottiedawg How a team like Etown gains points for losing and the team that beat them on their homecourt loses points?That is interesting if you can explain it thank you.

It's a great question!

I think FCG and Roundball already hit it, but +- ~10 "vote points" can happen for so many reasons, a lot of them pretty insignificant. 

The way I personally looked at Etown this year was a team with fantastic Winning%, but really bad SOS (whether you look at Massey, NCAA SOS).  But then they played stronger teams and kept winning. (did take a few losses). Then they played Scranton, on the road, and took them to overtime. And for me, that result, even though it was a loss, brings so much validation to all their wins this year. I heartily applaud the voters for not blindly dropping a team 50+ points, just because they lost.

I see so much more parity this year than last. More parity means that in general, losses shouldn't be treated as harshly as years where there is less parity.

Once you get past #7-8, all the teams have some big flaws (relatively haven't beat strong teams [DeSales, Messiah, Calvin, Ithaca]), (taken more than a few losses recently [Babson, Trinity Conn, Chicago, Calvin, Trine, BW, ONU, Puget, WashU])

It's easy to see why HSU, Wartburg, and Gustavus have gained a lot of votes and moved up a lot over the past month. They've played good teams and haven't lost.

Just to be accurate, Etown was the home team and Scranton the road team, but your points are well taken.

[Augie2020]

So explain Scottiedawg How a team like Etown gains points for losing and the team that beat them on their homecourt loses points?That is interesting if you can explain it thank you.

It's a great question!

I think FCG and Roundball already hit it, but +- ~10 "vote points" can happen for so many reasons, a lot of them pretty insignificant. 

The way I personally looked at Etown this year was a team with fantastic Winning%, but really bad SOS (whether you look at Massey, NCAA SOS).  But then they played stronger teams and kept winning. (did take a few losses). Then they played Scranton, on the road, and took them to overtime. And for me, that result, even though it was a loss, brings so much validation to all their wins this year. I heartily applaud the voters for not blindly dropping a team 50+ points, just because they lost.

I see so much more parity this year than last. More parity means that in general, losses shouldn't be treated as harshly as years where there is less parity.

Once you get past #7-8, all the teams have some big flaws (relatively haven't beat strong teams [DeSales, Messiah, Calvin, Ithaca]), (taken more than a few losses recently [Babson, Trinity Conn, Chicago, Calvin, Trine, BW, ONU, Puget, WashU])

It's easy to see why HSU, Wartburg, and Gustavus have gained a lot of votes and moved up a lot over the past month. They've played good teams and haven't lost.

game was at Etown

[saratoga]

As Ronk has pointed out, the E-town 7 pt. loss in OT was at E-town.
Scranton defeated the Blue Jays by 20 at Scranton.
Regardless...I get your point & I've said for ages that people need to stop getting too focused on Top 25 lists.
If you have good placement on the NCAA Regional poll, you'll be in good shape.

[Augie2020]

I think that is the reason they have a top 25 discussion board which I think I asked my question in??Being in the top four get you a quadrant or no scottiedawg?

[scottiedawg]

I think that is the reason they have a top 25 discussion board which I think I asked my question in??Being in the top four get you a quadrant or no scottiedawg?

Generally I feel like this board has been used to discuss the D3Hoops.com Top 25 poll.


Top 4 overall "seeds" for the NCAA Tournament is a different discussion.

My 4 top seeds for the NCAA Tournament right now are:
Smith (faaaar ahead at #1)
Scranton
Christopher Newport
NYU

[saratoga]

Being in the Top 4 of the D3 Hoops Top 25 does not in any way get you anything other than the knowledge that 25 voters thought you had a pretty good season.

It is the NCAA selection committee that will determine the quadrant seedings & the matchups.

[Augie2020]

I think that is the reason they have a top 25 discussion board which I think I asked my question in??Being in the top four get you a quadrant or no scottiedawg?

Generally I feel like this board has been used to discuss the D3Hoops.com Top 25 poll.


Top 4 overall "seeds" for the NCAA Tournament is a different discussion.

My 4 top seeds for the NCAA Tournament right now are:
Smith (faaaar ahead at #1)
Scranton
Christopher Newport
NYU

Scottie how did you come to it with them 4? Can you explain if you dont mind and how Smith is your #1

[nescac nostradamus]

I for one, love how Scott crunches numbers to form his opinion.  The SOS for Smith is elite - second only to Tufts to date (more on the NESCAC in a bit).  Despite their tough schedule, only one loss on the road against an average Framingham St team (116 Massey) is very impressive.  Remember, Smith lost by 2 to Finalist Whitewater in the Elite 8 last year and brought just about everyone back for another run this year.  Circling back to the NESCAC, I'm the first to admit the NESCAC is down this year.  However, I do think people are sleeping on the conference a bit this year.  8th seeded (!) Bowdoin almost knocked off NYU on the road, and both Smith and Trinity had to storm back in the 4th quarters for wins against the Polar Bears.  While the NESCAC may not have an elite team this year, they are strong from 1-8 and the conference tournament is truly wide open.  The first round match up that I have my eye on is #3 seed Trinity versus #6 seed Amherst.  I have been harsh on Amherst this year - particularly on their relatively weak SOS.  I think if they lose vs Trinity - they will be out of the NCAA Tourney.  Amherst is getting healthy and playing better as of late and I am predicting an upset versus Trinity to stamp their ticket to the dance.  Unless there is a surprise NESCAC champ, that would IMO have Trinity, Tufts, and Amherst in the tourney with all 3 capable of making a run.  Trinity reminds me of Amherst - they play tough D and grind out low scoring games.  Tufts turned around their season when they got healthy, and more importantly, started to commit to playing defense rather than trying to outscore other really good teams.  In summary, I think top 25 poll voters should weigh SOS a bit more than they do.