Top 25 discussion

[David Collinge]

Top 25 Scores and Schedules, Jan. 29-Feb. 4 (FINAL):

#   1   Messiah (20-1) won at Juniata 63-32 and def. Albright 75-65
#   2   Bowdoin (21-1) won at Bates 58-50 and won at Colby 78-32
#   3   Calvin (18-1) won at Albion 75-65 and had their game vs. St. Mary's (IN) postponed until Monday
#   4   Southern Maine (19-1) def. Husson 70-57 and def. Western Connecticut 57-54
#   5   Scranton (19-2) def. King's 78-73 and won at FDU-Florham 78-63
#   6   Howard Payne (20-1) def. #16 Hardin-Simmons 67-57 and def. #12 McMurry 72-55
#   7   Rochester (18-2) won at Emory 68-63 and won at Case Western Reserve 74-71
#   8   DePauw (19-2) won at Centre 77-46
#   9   Hope (18-2) won at Adrian 87-53
#   10   UW-Stout (18-4) lost at UW-River Falls 79-68 and won at UW-Oshkosh 70-45
#   11   Washington U. (15-5) lost at #18 NYU 83-58 and won at #19 Brandeis 51-45
#   12   McMurry (18-3) won at Sul Ross St. 91-44 and lost at #6 Howard Payne 72-55
#   13   Chicago (16-4) lost at #19 Brandeis 52-50 and lost at #18 NYU 76-75
#   14   Illinois Wesleyan (19-1) def. North Central 86-56 and def. Elmhurst 67-50
#   15   Wilmington (18-3) def. Muskingum 87-72 and lost at #22 Baldwin-Wallace 69-62
#   16   Hardin-Simmons (16-4) lost at #6 Howard Payne 67-57 and won at Sul Ross St. 75-48
#   17   Mary Washington (18-2) won at Bridgewater (VA) 89-81 (OT) and def. York (PA) 74-62
#   18   NYU (18-2) def. #11 Washington U. 83-58 and def. #13 Chicago 76-75
#   19   Brandeis (15-4) def. #13 Chicago 52-50 and lost to #11 Washington U. 51-45
#   20   Emmanuel (18-1) def. Suffolk 63-41, won at Johnson and Wales 70-56, and won at #25 Norwich 61-59
#   21   Lake Forest (17-2) def. Beloit 59-48 and def. Lawrence 57-53
#   22   Baldwin-Wallace (17-4) won at Heidelberg 66-58 (OT) and def. #15 Wilmington 69-62
#   23   Maine Maritime (19-1) def. Thomas 69-50, def. Lasell 66-50, and def. Mt. Ida 87-60
#   24   William Paterson (18-4) lost at Montclair State 72-61 and lost at Richard Stockton 62-57
#   25   Norwich (18-2) won at Rivier 92-55, won at Albertus Magnus 72-41, and lost to #20 Emmanuel 61-59

Collectively, 39-11 (.780) for the week, but 8 of the 11 losses were to other ranked teams.  Against unranked teams, the top 25 went 31-3 (.912).

[David Collinge]

Top 25 Schedule and Scores, Feb. 5-11 (UPDATED through Tuesday):      

#   1   Messiah (20-1) hosts Susquehanna Wed. and plays at Moravian Sat.
#   2   Bowdoin (21-1) hosts Tufts Fri. and hosts Bates Sat.
#   3   Calvin (19-1) def. St. Mary's (IN) 75-44, plays at Tri-State Wed., and hosts #9 Hope Sat.
#   4   Southern Maine (20-1) won at Plymouth St. 78-55 and hosts Rhode Island College Sat.
#   5   Howard Payne (20-1) plays at Concordia-Austin Thu. and plays at Mary Hardin-Baylor Sat.
#   6   Rochester (18-2) plays at #11 NYU Fri. and plays at #21 Brandeis Sun.
#   7   Scranton (19-2) plays at Wilkes Wed. and hosts Delaware Valley Sat.
#   8   DePauw (19-2) plays at Hendrix Fri. and plays at Austin Sun.
#   9   Hope (18-2) hosts Olivet Wed. and plays at #3 Calvin Sat.
#   10   Illinois Wesleyan (19-1) hosts Millikin Tue. Thu. (rescheduled) and plays at Wheaton (IL) Sat.
#   11   NYU (18-2) hosts #6 Rochester Fri. and hosts Carnegie Mellon Sun.
#   12   UW-Stout (18-4) hosts UW-Superior Wed. and plays at UW-Stevens Point Sat.
#   13   McMurry (18-3) plays at Texas Lutheran Thu. and plays at Schreiner Sat.
#   14   Mary Washington (19-2) def. Salisbury 72-51, plays at Gallaudet Thu., and hosts Goucher Sat.
#   15   Wilmington (18-3) hosts Ohio Northern Wed. and plays at Mount Union Sat.
#   16   Hardin-Simmons (16-4) plays at Schriener Thu. and plays at Texas Lutheran Sat.
#   17   Washington U. (15-5) hosts Emory Fri. and hosts Case Western Reserve Sun.
#   18   Emmanuel (18-1) plays at Simmons Thu. and plays at Daniel Webster Sat.
#   19   Lake Forest (18-2) def. Illinois College 81-51 and plays at Grinnell Sat.
#   20   Baldwin-Wallace (17-4) hosts Otterbein Wed. and plays at Muskingum Sat.
#   21   Brandeis (15-4) hosts Carnegie Mellon Fri. and hosts #6 Rochester Sun.
#   22   Maine Maritime (19-1) hosts Maine-Farmington Wed. and plays at Wheelock Fri.
#   23   Chicago (16-4) hosts Case Western Reserve Fri. and hosts Emory Sun.
#   24   Capital (16-4) hosts Mount Union Wed. and plays at Ohio Northern Sat.
#   25   McDaniel (19-2) won at Johns Hopkins 56-50 and hosts Muhlenberg Sat.

[saratoga]

Pat: Not that it's an issue with me, but... how does a school like Gwynedd-Mercy with a record of 19-2 not at least get a few votes? They played Scranton pretty tough last year in the NCAA's & have a good # of those kids back...lack of respect for the PAC or just too many schools with similiar records? Just wondering.

[Pat Coleman]

Did you look at who they played?

[saratoga]

OK, so that answer would be their conference because even their out of conference games are not very impressive...a blowout loss to Kean & a loss to Geneseo St. If that's the story on the National level...do those very same factors come into play when determining Regional rankings? I mean how much can wins against Ceder Crest, Wesley, Eastern & Marywood be worth?

[Pat Coleman]

The NCAA's regional rankings are a little more numerical. In general, a 19-2 team (or whatever) in the PAC isn't going to come out as well numerically as a 19-2 team in either MAC because of strength of schedule.

[saratoga]

Let's hope not. Thanks.

[Dark Knight]

The d3hoops.com poll is generally better than a computer poll like Massey because it uses more information. But it may also be helpful once in a while to look at teams that are greatly overranked or underranked according to Massey, to review their schedules and results and to reconsider their ranking in the d3hoops poll.

The two most overranked teams according to Massey are ME Maritime (should be #83) and S. Maine (should be #58). Both have extremely weak schedules. ME Maritime's is #355 out of 432. There are three unranked 1-loss teams with tougher schedules than ME Maritime's: St. Lawrence, Cortland St., and Fitchburg St. There are five lower-ranked 1-loss teams with tougher schedules than S ME: Howard Payne, IL Wesleyan, St. Lawrence, Cortland St., and Emmanuel.

Two other overranked teams according to Massey are Messiah (should be #13) and Bowdoin (should be #25). Both have among the weakest schedules in the top 25, apart from the two ME teams. Massey has DePauw and Howard Payne in their places.

As for underranked teams, besides DePauw and Howard Payne, Massey has Gustavus Adolphus at #6 (recent loss not accounted for) and Denison at #14.

A team without votes to take a look at: St. Benedict (Massey says #11).

[deiscanton]

Dark Knight--

I see that, in your report, you used the version of the Massey ratings that took margins of victory into account.  (There are 2 versions of the Massey ratings, and the rankings are different depending on whether or not margins of victory are taken into account.)

Why do you think that the version of the Masseys that takes victory margins into account is inherently better than the other version?  I'm just curious.

[Dark Knight]

Dark Knight--
Why do you think that the version of the Masseys that takes victory margins into account is inherently better than the other version?  I'm just curious.

Massey's data shows that the MOV-based ratings are slightly better at predicting the outcome of future games. That makes sense, because they use more information. If Team A beats Team B by 20 points, vs. by 1 point, it makes a difference in your estimate of relative team strength, doesn't it?

Besides, the MOV-based ratings are more fun.  They let you predict scores of upcoming games.

[saratoga]

Pat: So much for our collective assumption that the NCAA will view the "QUALITY" of wins by certain teams. I mean there they are...Gwynedd-Mercy...front and center at #3 in the Middle Atlantic rankings, fresh off those barn-burners against CederCrest, Marywood, Eastern & the list goes on & on. And the message the NCAA is sending is what??? It's such a double standard every year... the good teams that play in tough conferences, get a few losses, then play tough out of conference games & perhaps get another loss & come Selection Sunday/Monday, they're informed they just had too many losses to get in. Meanwhile, these schools that play in joke conferences that are pretty good & feed on the same schools each year then play a PATHETICALLY weak non-conference schedule  end up with high Regional rankings...Why? Don't cry we can't help who we play in our conference when you can do something about the other games & you continue to pad the schedule with The Sisters of the Poor. Does the fact some teams have coaches on the committee have a little something to do with where their teams are ranked? Same nonsense...different year. By the way, I am NOT implying certain schools have no business being ranked...my concern is where that placement lies as that position could have serious homecourt implications.

[mark_reichert]

ranked? Same nonsense...different year. By the way, I am NOT implying certain schools have no business being ranked...my concern is where that placement lies as that position could have serious homecourt implications.

Really?

[sarcasm on]
I thought Scranton and Southern Maine hosted no matter what.
[sarcasm off]

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

It's the FIRST ranking! Granted, many of us are use to these rankings debuting in mid-January, this ranking means nothing overall. At least your team is ranked... meaning if you keep winning and maybe take no more than one other loss... you should make the tournament.

Relax on the home-court issue. Over the past few years... not all the #1 or #2 seeds host. It has a LOT to do with what teams are remaining when and where they are located.

Oh... and didn't everyone know what they were getting into every season? There are no surprises by the head-scratching we all do when regional rankings come out and tournament fields are selected. If it all made sense and was completely obvious, these post-up boards and Hoopsville (shameless plug) probably wouldn't be necessary!

[Pat Coleman]

Pat: So much for our collective assumption that the NCAA will view the "QUALITY" of wins by certain teams. I mean there they are...Gwynedd-Mercy...front and center at #3 in the Middle Atlantic rankings, fresh off those barn-burners against CederCrest, Marywood, Eastern & the list goes on & on.

Yet, behind Scranton.

Unfortunately the process of building the new software that will calculate QOWI for the entirety of D-III has not come in yet. I'd know more if we had more numbers.

[Ralph Turner]

Pat: So much for our collective assumption that the NCAA will view the "QUALITY" of wins by certain teams. I mean there they are...Gwynedd-Mercy...front and center at #3 in the Middle Atlantic rankings, fresh off those barn-burners against CederCrest, Marywood, Eastern & the list goes on & on. And the message the NCAA is sending is what??? It's such a double standard every year... the good teams that play in tough conferences, get a few losses, then play tough out of conference games & perhaps get another loss & come Selection Sunday/Monday, they're informed they just had too many losses to get in. Meanwhile, these schools that play in joke conferences that are pretty good & feed on the same schools each year then play a PATHETICALLY weak non-conference schedule  end up with high Regional rankings...Why? Don't cry we can't help who we play in our conference when you can do something about the other games & you continue to pad the schedule with The Sisters of the Poor. Does the fact some teams have coaches on the committee have a little something to do with where their teams are ranked? Same nonsense...different year. By the way, I am NOT implying certain schools have no business being ranked...my concern is where that placement lies as that position could have serious homecourt implications.

The QOWI mathematically factors the wins over the Sisters of the Poor.

The QOWI value of those home and away wins by Gwynedd-Mercy:

Arcadia Home win 8 points; still has an away game that will be worth 9pts.
Wesley-- Home win worth 8 points.
Rosemont--Away win worth 9 points.
Eastern--Home win worth 8 points.
Cedar Crest--Away win worth 9 points; Home game remaining worth 8 points.

Gwynedd-Mercy's QOWI took a hit every time they played those teams.

The home-and-away series with Arcadia gave them 17 points.

Splitting a home-and-away series with a team with a .500 record gives you 17 points.  Sweeping that series would have given you 25 points.

Splitting a home-and-away series with a team with a .667 record gives you 21 points.  Sweeping the series will give you 29 points. 

The mathematical impact of losses on the QOWI is not usually considered by most posters at first glance.

The only thing that you gain from playing a weak schedule is a won-loss percentage.  You are not likely to get a good QOWI or to have played a regionally ranked opponent.