Top 25 discussion

[Mr. Ypsi]

It would be interesting to see how the QoWI compares with the power ranking.

I imagine the correlation would be fairly modest.  Next year(?) the QOWI will start including opponents' opponents records, and become much more of a true strength of schedule measure, but right now you get the same points for beating a +.667 team who beat quality opponents or a +.667 team who beat nothing but cupcakes.

[Pat Coleman]

I hope to be able to provide some sort of comparison over the summer.

[feces monkey]

The Massey rankings, QoWI, etc., are fun and give the best measuring stick available, but would it be fair to say that because there aren't a lot of inter-regional games in DIII, that they will always be somewhat flawed.

My reason for asking: it's somewhat hard to believe that Bowdoin has played only one Top 50 team in its 24-game schedule (like Massey concludes) and likewise it's hard to believe that Bowdoin has the most quality wins (as the QoWI would suggest). It seems that if there is a tweaking of one or two variables, you can get the numbers to say anything.

Next year(?) the QOWI will start including opponents' opponents records, and become much more of a true strength of schedule measure...

It makes sense that this would fine tune it a little bit, but taking a national snapshot of a sport so reliant on regional rankings just seems difficult to reconcile.

[Pat Coleman]

Quality of Wins Index doesn't measure quality wins, however. When the NCAA changed the name from "Strength of Schedule Index" it only made the title less inaccurate. It didn't make it accurate.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Pat,

Am I remembering correctly that the QOWI adds opponents' opponents records next year?  I remember reading something along those lines (in a Daily Dose?) but can't track down the source.

[Pat Coleman]

QOWI is getting scrapped in favor of a schedule measurement that includes those factors in some fashion, yes.

[Dark Knight]

It would be interesting to see how the QoWI compares with the power ranking.

I imagine the correlation would be fairly modest.  Next year(?) the QOWI will start including opponents' opponents records, and become much more of a true strength of schedule measure, but right now you get the same points for beating a +.667 team who beat quality opponents or a +.667 team who beat nothing but cupcakes.

The Massey rankings, QoWI, etc., are fun and give the best measuring stick available, but would it be fair to say that because there aren't a lot of inter-regional games in DIII, that they will always be somewhat flawed.

Next year's QOWIs (or whatever they will be called) will still be somewhat different from Massey's power ratings because the power ratings are MOV-based. The QOWIs are more like Massey's rankings that are not based on MOV (which actually aren't all that different from the MOV-based rankings).

Next year's QOWIs should be an improvement for teams in weak conferences in strong regions, or teams in strong conferences in weak regions, but I'm afraid they won't help much for teasing out the differences in regional strength.  For example, the WIAC is 120-86 over all, so an average team will have a .583 record. The NESCAC is 139/97 over all, or .589. However, according to Massey's power ratings, the average WIAC team is 10.7 points stronger than the average NESCAC team. So it will still be much better for the QOWI to play a NESCAC team than a WIAC team.

To account for the regional differences between Maine and Wisconsin, you'd have to pay attention to games between Maine and Wisconsin teams, or Maine vs. Michigan Vs. Wisconsin, ME vs. PA vs. IL vs. WI, etc. You can't do that with a two-step algorithm (my opponents' record + my opponents' opponents' record) -- you need to iterate more deeply than that.

So, I agree that next year's QOWI won't handle regional differences very well, but I do think that well-designed computer ranking systems can do it much better.

[Preto]

MIAA scores
Wednesday Feb 14

Calvin 66, Olivet 62

MIAA scores
Saturday Feb 17

Calvin 59, Alma 53

- Olivet (12-11)
- Alma (10-13)

Two close games to .500 teams ..... will Calvin have a small drop in the poll?

[David Collinge]

Top 25 At-a-Glance, Week of Feb. 12-18 (UPDATED through Saturday)

#   1   Bowdoin (24-1) def. Trinity (CT) 61-50 (NESCAC quarterfinal)
#   2   Calvin (23-1) def. Olivet 66-62 and won at Alma 59-53
#   3   Howard Payne (24-1) def. Schreiner 90-29 and won Texas Lutheran 83-36
#   4   Southern Maine (22-2) won at Mass.-Boston 92-50 and lost at Keene St. 62-50
#   5   Messiah (23-2) def. Elizabethtown 76-53 and def. Widener 97-51
#   6   Scranton (23-2) won at Lycoming 65-39 and won at DeSales 78-71
#   7   NYU (21-2) won at Case Western Reserve 68-65 and plays at Emory Sun.
#   8   Hope (21-3) def. Alma 63-48 and won at St. Mary's (IN) 79-71
#   9   McMurry (22-3) def. Mary Hardin-Baylor 68-60 (OT) and def. Concordia-Austin 99-57
#   10   Mary Washington (23-2) def. St. Mary's (MD) 72-43 and won at Catholic 58-43
#   11   DePauw (21-3) def. Sewanee 80-47 and hosts Oglethorpe Sun.
#   12   Washington U. (18-5) won at Carnegie Mellon 72-55 and plays at #16 Rochester Sun.
#   13   Hardin-Simmons (20-4) def. Concordia-Austin 91-51 and def. Mary Hardin-Baylor 89-61
#   14   Brandeis (18-4) won at Emory 58-51 and plays at Case Western Reserve Sun.
#   15   Emmanuel (24-1) def. Babson 77-56, def. So. Vermont 88-44, def. Pine Manor 77-47, and won at Rivier 89-63
#   16   Rochester (19-4) def. Chicago 64-59 and hosts #12 Washington U. Sun.
#   17   Lake Forest (21-2) won at Monmouth 95-86 (OT) and def. Knox 98-55
#   18   UW-Stout (20-5) def. UW-La Crosse 72-68
#   19   Illinois Wesleyan (21-3) won at Augustana 84-68 and def. North Park 64-63
#   20   Wilmington (21-4) won at Otterbein 103-100 (OT) and def. John Carroll 70-44
#   21   McDaniel (23-2) def. Bryn Mawr 60-42, won at Washington Coll. 83-69, and hosts Franklin & Marshall Sun. (ppd. from Wed.)
#   22   Baldwin-Wallace (19-6) lost at John Carroll 61-58 and def. Marietta 84-39
#   23   Medaille (21-4) def. La Roche 72-47 and won at Hilbert 70-41
#   24   Cortland St. (22-2) won at Potsdam St. 67-53, lost at Brockport St. 55-52, and def. Fredonia St. 72-49
#   25   Fitchburg St. (23-2) won at Framingham St. 85-46, def. Massachusetts Coll. 86-40, and lost at Bridgewater St. 60-52

[hawk'ster]

Wednesday Feb 14 Calvin 66, Olivet 62
Saturday Feb 17 Calvin 59, Alma 53

- Olivet (12-11)
- Alma (10-13)

Two close games to .500 teams ..... will Calvin have a small drop in the poll?

Top 25 At-a-Glance

#   2   Calvin (23-1) def. Olivet 66-62 and won at Alma 59-53
#   3   Howard Payne (24-1) def. Schreiner 90-29 and won Texas Lutheran 83-36
#   5   Messiah (23-2) def. Elizabethtown 76-53 and def. Widener 97-51

I could see Calvin dropping one or two spots.

[TC HOOPS]

Its ABOUT time that Gwynedd Mercy College at 23-2 and winners of 16 straight get a LITTLE respect and break into the TOP 25!!!!!!!!

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Its ABOUT time that Gwynedd Mercy College at 23-2 and winners of 16 straight get a LITTLE respect and break into the TOP 25!!!!!!!!

You might have an arguement since their QOWI as of last Sunday was 10.957... BUT... when I look at their schedule... not one of their games really jump at me. It is late... so I might be mistaken, but is there a win over a Top-25 team... or even a regionally ranked team. I could only find Kean - who GMC lost to earlier in the season!

Again... I could be wrong!

[Pat Coleman]

Its ABOUT time that Gwynedd Mercy College at 23-2 and winners of 16 straight get a LITTLE respect and break into the TOP 25!!!!!!!!

Considering the two one-loss teams with weak schedules at No. 24 and No. 25 both lived up to their schedules and lost this week, I don't know if the voters will want to take a chance on a two-loss team with a weak schedule.

[Dark Knight]

Its ABOUT time that Gwynedd Mercy College at 23-2 and winners of 16 straight get a LITTLE respect and break into the TOP 25!!!!!!!!

Considering the two one-loss teams with weak schedules at No. 24 and No. 25 both lived up to their schedules and lost this week, I don't know if the voters will want to take a chance on a two-loss team with a weak schedule.

Make that three. Southern Maine also lost.

Gwynedd-Mercy has the 248th-toughest schedule and hasn't played any team ranked higher than #74 by Massey. That team, Kean, beat them by 30 points.

[TC HOOPS]

Yes Gwynedd Mercy lost at Kean by 30 in the 2nd game of the year but were only down 2 at the half when the coach benched the starters for the 2nd half because of the way they played in the first half and it looks like he made his point since they won 22 of 23 since then and their only other loss coming in Florida to Suny-Geneseo St on a last second shot. As far as all the points you guys made about their schedule I can only say they beat Kings at Kings by 15  who finished 2nd in The MAC behind Scranton. They beat Ursinus by 21 who finished 4th in the Centennial Conference and who beat Muhlenberg yeasterday. And beat Albright twice who finished 2nd in the Commonwealth Conference to Messiah. But your right their schedule was not that tough this year but they are 7th in the Nation in scoring margin at 21.5 points a game so its not like they are squeaking by. And its the same team minus 1 starter that was down 2 with 30 seconds left last year against Scranton at Scranton in the 2nd round of the NCAA playoffs. I am not saying they should be ranked in the Top 20 YET but being ranked at 41 in last weeks TOP 25 is a JOKE. Looking foward to the NCAA playoffs, goodluck to everyone.