Top 25 discussion

[Ralph Turner]

A full court of good games today:

#1 Bowdoin vs. Williams (Massey predicts 59-50)
#2 Calvin hosts #7 Hope (pred. 65-62)
#3 Howard Payne vs. #13 Hardin-Simmons (pred. 66-59)
#4 Scranton vs. Kings (pred. 66-57)
#6 NYU vs. #15 Brandeis (pred. 66-60)
#8 S. Maine vs. Keene St. (pred. 65-62)
#10 McMurry vs. E. Texas Baptist (pred. 71-71+)  Final McM 75, ETBU 73
#16 Lake Forest vs. Carroll (pred. 65-64)
#17 UW-Stout vs. UW-Eau Claire (pred. 66-59)
#18 IL Wesleyan at Wheaton (IL) (pred. 60-64)
#20 Wilmington vs. Capital (pred. 70-65)
#23 ME-Maritime at #24 ME-Farmington (pred. 57-61)

[Updated for improved venue information.]

[Dark Knight]

#10 McMurry vs. E. Texas Baptist (pred. 71-71+)  Final McM 75, ETBU 73

I'd say Massey pretty much nailed that one as well. d3hoops.com had McMurry at #10 and E. Texas Baptist unranked, but Massey had the game tied. It ended with a pair of ETBU shots to tie rimming out.

[David Collinge]

Top 25 At-a-Glance, Week of Feb. 19-25 (UPDATED with Saturday results)

#   1   Bowdoin (25-1) def. Williams 66-46 (NESCAC semifinal); hosts Tufts Sun. (NESCAC final)
#   2   Calvin (25-2) def. Adrian 90-52 (MIAA quarterfinal); def. Albion 70-54 (MIAA semifinal); lost to #7 Hope 71-68 (MIAA final)
#   3   Howard Payne (26-1) def. U. of the Ozarks 78-52 (ASC qtrf.); def. #13 Hardin-Simmons 77-62 (ASC semifinal); finals Sun.
#   4   Scranton (25-2) def. Drew 83-67 (MAC-Freedom semifinal); def. King's 79-63 (MAC-Freedom final)
#   5   Messiah (25-2) def. Susquehanna 59-32 (MAC-Commonw. semifinal); def. Moravian 79-57 (MAC-Commonw. final)
#   6   NYU (23-2) def. #15 Brandeis 79-73
#   7   Hope (23-3) def. Tri-State 85-61 (MIAA quarterfinal); def. St. Mary's (IN) 71-52 (MIAA semifinal); won at #2 Calvin 71-68 (MIAA final)
#   8   Southern Maine (25-2) def. Mass.-Dartmouth 97-59 (LEC quarterfinal); def. Eastern Conn. 77-61 (LEC semifinal); def. Keene St. 68-57 (LEC final)
#   9   Mary Washington (25-2) def. Gallaudet 100-41 (CAC quarterfinal); def. Salisbury 79-58 (CAC semifinal); def. Marymount 53-42 (CAC final)
#   10   McMurry (24-3) def. Tex.-Dallas 74-47 (ASC qtrf.); def. East Texas Baptist 75-73 (ASC semifinal); plays at #3 Howard Payne Sun. (ASC final) (all games at Brownwood, TX)
#   11   DePauw (24-3) def. Sewanee 82-58 (SCAC qtrf.); def. Austin 67-38 (SCAC semifinal); plays Oglethorpe Sun. (SCAC final) (all games in Memphis, TN)
#   12   Washington U. (20-5) def. Chicago 80-75 (OT)
#   13   Hardin-Simmons (21-5) def. Miss. College 90-71 at Brownwood, TX (ASC qtrf.); lost at #3 Howard Payne 77-62 (ASC semifinal)
#   14   Emmanuel (27-1) def. Rivier 90-58 (GNAC quarterfinal); def. Western New England 71-42 (GNAC semifinal); def. #25 Norwich 63-55 (GNAC final)
#   15   Brandeis (19-5) lost at #6 NYU 79-73
#   16   Lake Forest (23-2) def. Lawrence 71-65 (MWC semifinal); def. Carroll 64-56 (MWC final)
#   17   UW-Stout (22-5) def. UW-Oshkosh 71-54 (WIAC quarterfinal); def. UW-River Falls 70-59 (WIAC semifinal); def. UW-Eau Claire 73-61 (WIAC final)
#   18   Illinois Wesleyan (22-5) lost at North Central 57-46; def. Millikin 83-67 at Wheaton, IL (CCIW semi.); lost at Wheaton (IL) 54-49 (CCIW final)
#   19   McDaniel (23-3) lost to Ursinus 63-53 (Centennial semifinal)
#   20   Wilmington (24-4) def. Muskingum 80-55 (OAC quarterfinal); def. Ohio Northern 73-65 (OAC semifinal); def. Capital 89-72 (OAC final)
#   21   Rochester (20-5) def. Carnegie Mellon 72-57
#   22   Medaille (23-4) def. Lake Erie 73-67 (AMCC semifinal); def. Penn St.-Behrend 66-39 (AMCC final)
#   23   Maine Maritime (25-3) def. Becker 79-54 (NAC quarterfinal); def. Castleton St. 53-38 at Farmington, ME (NAC semifinal); lost at #24 Maine-Farmington 61-58 (NAC final)
#   24   Maine-Farmington (25-3) def. Johnson St. 81-56 (NAC quarterfinal); def. Husson 60-45 (NAC semifinal); def. #23 Maine-Maritime 61-58 (NAC final)
#   25   Norwich (24-2) def. Simmons 54-37 (GNAC quarterfinal); def. Suffolk 56-46 at Boston, MA (GNAC semifinal); lost at #14 Emmanuel 63-55 (GNAC final)

[Pat Coleman]

A full court of good games today:

#18 IL Wesleyan at Wheaton (IL) (pred. 60-64)
#23 ME-Maritime at #24 ME-Farmington (pred. 57-61)

Really only two games where Massey's prediction differed from the d3hoops.com rankings, and Massey swished them both,

IL Wesleyan 49 Wheaton 54
ME Maritime 58 ME Farmington 61

Not really. You didn't give our poll any credit for homecourt on the Maritime/Farmington game.

[Ralph Turner]

A full court of good games today:

#18 IL Wesleyan at Wheaton (IL) (pred. 60-64)
#23 ME-Maritime at #24 ME-Farmington (pred. 57-61)

Really only two games where Massey's prediction differed from the d3hoops.com rankings, and Massey swished them both,

IL Wesleyan 49 Wheaton 54
ME Maritime 58 ME Farmington 61

Not really. You didn't give our poll any credit for homecourt on the Maritime/Farmington game.

Dark Knight, I have run the ASC football pick'em contest for five years now.  When the Pre-season publication "Kickoff" came out in 2005, Pat gave me permission to use his poll with his secret analysis for Home Field Advantage.

This year, the 2006 Kickoff (selected by Pat and Keith McMillan in August) won the ASC Pick'em over 25 persons and two other computer indices.

The guy is good!

[Mr. Ypsi]

Pat, I'll defend your poll on the IWU-Wheaton game as well.  Since the last poll, IWU had gone 1-1 (losing to a team with a losing record), while Wheaton had gone 2-0.  Since Wheaton was the equivalent of #26 in that previous poll, and also had home-court yesterday, I daresay your 'current poll' (if there had been one) probably would have predicted the Wheaton win.

[Pat Coleman]

Thanks. I'd like to take credit for that but it wouldn't be fair to project.

Ralph -- Kickoff not only did that, it advanced in the ODAC playoff pick'em and was eliminated after a tiebreaker despite a perfect record in the second round.

Note that those August predictions were holding up just fine in November as well.

[Dark Knight]

Pat, I'll defend your poll on the IWU-Wheaton game as well.  Since the last poll, IWU had gone 1-1 (losing to a team with a losing record), while Wheaton had gone 2-0.  Since Wheaton was the equivalent of #26 in that previous poll, and also had home-court yesterday, I daresay your 'current poll' (if there had been one) probably would have predicted the Wheaton win.

Massey's ranking was based on the same games that the d3hoops.com poll was based on.

The point about the intra-ME game and home court advantage is a good one, but can you articulate how one is supposed to use home court advantage in conjunction with the d3hoops.com poll to predict game outcome?

In any future comparisons, I will of course use the 'official' method of predicting game outcome based on the d3hoops.com poll. But if it's not that the higher-ranked team will win, I'd have to know what it is.

[Pat Coleman]

I would just think that if No. 23 travels to No. 24, No. 24 would be favored.

[Fawkes316]

A full court of good games today:

#18 IL Wesleyan at Wheaton (IL) (pred. 60-64)
#23 ME-Maritime at #24 ME-Farmington (pred. 57-61)

Really only two games where Massey's prediction differed from the d3hoops.com rankings, and Massey swished them both,

IL Wesleyan 49 Wheaton 54
ME Maritime 58 ME Farmington 61

Not really. You didn't give our poll any credit for homecourt on the Maritime/Farmington game.

As a fan of Wheaton, I don't blame D3hoops for not having Wheaton ranked above IWU. Wheaton struggled early in the season and it's hard to put a team that has 6 losses (now 7) ahead of a team that only had three. Though, IWU has struggled this week with the loss of Mallory Heydorn. Wheaton's final rankings will obviously be decided by their performance in the tournament. They have the talent to go as far as last season, but they have been inconsistent offensively this season.

[Fawkes316]

Pat, I'll defend your poll on the IWU-Wheaton game as well.  Since the last poll, IWU had gone 1-1 (losing to a team with a losing record), while Wheaton had gone 2-0.  Since Wheaton was the equivalent of #26 in that previous poll, and also had home-court yesterday, I daresay your 'current poll' (if there had been one) probably would have predicted the Wheaton win.

Actually, Wheaton lost to Carthage at home on Tuesday, before beating them at home on Friday in the tourney.

[Fawkes316]

Again, the D3hoops poll was not unfair to or wrong about Wheaton. They were the highest ranked 6 loss team, and I have no doubt that they will be the highest ranked 7 loss team after the week. I think that the voters have done a good job of considering Wheaton's talent and the tough schedule they played early in the season. Wheaton will either live up to or not the respect given them this season by the voters. Hopefully they get a decent draw in the first round, but I really think, when on their game, they can play with anyone in the country (e.g. they beat Calvin).

[Dark Knight]

Again, the D3hoops poll was not unfair to or wrong about Wheaton. They were the highest ranked 6 loss team, and I have no doubt that they will be the highest ranked 7 loss team after the week.

I agree that the poll was not wrong or unfair to Wheaton, given the purpose of the poll -- to reflect the games a team has played so far in a season.

However, that purpose isn't ideal if your goal is to try to predict upcoming games. I wouldn't be surprised if a majority of people would have predicted the Wheaton win, given more recent trends.

[David Collinge]

Top 25 At-a-Glance, Week of Feb. 19-25 (FINAL)

#   1   Bowdoin (26-1) def. Williams 66-46 (NESCAC semifinal); def. Tufts 64-48 (NESCAC final)
#   2   Calvin (25-2) def. Adrian 90-52 (MIAA quarterfinal); def. Albion 70-54 (MIAA semifinal); lost to #7 Hope 71-68 (MIAA final)
#   3   Howard Payne (27-1) def. U. of the Ozarks 78-52 (ASC qtrf.); def. #13 Hardin-Simmons 77-62 (ASC semifinal); def. #10 McMurry 49-40 (ASC final)
#   4   Scranton (25-2) def. Drew 83-67 (MAC-Freedom semifinal); def. King's 79-63 (MAC-Freedom final)
#   5   Messiah (25-2) def. Susquehanna 59-32 (MAC-Commonw. semifinal); def. Moravian 79-57 (MAC-Commonw. final)
#   6   NYU (23-2) def. #15 Brandeis 79-73
#   7   Hope (23-3) def. Tri-State 85-61 (MIAA quarterfinal); def. St. Mary's (IN) 71-52 (MIAA semifinal); won at #2 Calvin 71-68 (MIAA final)
#   8   Southern Maine (25-2) def. Mass.-Dartmouth 97-59 (LEC quarterfinal); def. Eastern Conn. 77-61 (LEC semifinal); def. Keene St. 68-57 (LEC final)
#   9   Mary Washington (25-2) def. Gallaudet 100-41 (CAC quarterfinal); def. Salisbury 79-58 (CAC semifinal); def. Marymount 53-42 (CAC final)
#   10   McMurry (24-4) def. Tex.-Dallas 74-47 (ASC qtrf.); def. East Texas Baptist 75-73 (ASC semifinal); lost at #3 Howard Payne 49-40 (ASC final) (all games at Brownwood, TX)
#   11   DePauw (25-3) def. Sewanee 82-58 (SCAC qtrf.); def. Austin 67-38 (SCAC semifinal); def. Oglethorpe 73-60 (SCAC final) (all games in Memphis, TN)
#   12   Washington U. (20-5) def. Chicago 80-75 (OT)
#   13   Hardin-Simmons (21-5) def. Miss. College 90-71 at Brownwood, TX (ASC qtrf.); lost at #3 Howard Payne 77-62 (ASC semifinal)
#   14   Emmanuel (27-1) def. Rivier 90-58 (GNAC quarterfinal); def. Western New England 71-42 (GNAC semifinal); def. #25 Norwich 63-55 (GNAC final)
#   15   Brandeis (19-5) lost at #6 NYU 79-73
#   16   Lake Forest (23-2) def. Lawrence 71-65 (MWC semifinal); def. Carroll 64-56 (MWC final)
#   17   UW-Stout (22-5) def. UW-Oshkosh 71-54 (WIAC quarterfinal); def. UW-River Falls 70-59 (WIAC semifinal); def. UW-Eau Claire 73-61 (WIAC final)
#   18   Illinois Wesleyan (22-5) lost at North Central 57-46; def. Millikin 83-67 at Wheaton, IL (CCIW semi.); lost at Wheaton (IL) 54-49 (CCIW final)
#   19   McDaniel (23-3) lost to Ursinus 63-53 (Centennial semifinal)
#   20   Wilmington (24-4) def. Muskingum 80-55 (OAC quarterfinal); def. Ohio Northern 73-65 (OAC semifinal); def. Capital 89-72 (OAC final)
#   21   Rochester (20-5) def. Carnegie Mellon 72-57
#   22   Medaille (23-4) def. Lake Erie 73-67 (AMCC semifinal); def. Penn St.-Behrend 66-39 (AMCC final)
#   23   Maine Maritime (25-3) def. Becker 79-54 (NAC quarterfinal); def. Castleton St. 53-38 at Farmington, ME (NAC semifinal); lost at #24 Maine-Farmington 61-58 (NAC final)
#   24   Maine-Farmington (25-3) def. Johnson St. 81-56 (NAC quarterfinal); def. Husson 60-45 (NAC semifinal); def. #23 Maine-Maritime 61-58 (NAC final)
#   25   Norwich (24-2) def. Simmons 54-37 (GNAC quarterfinal); def. Suffolk 56-46 at Boston, MA (GNAC semifinal); lost at #14 Emmanuel 63-55 (GNAC final)

[Rick Akins]

Top 25 women's poll for week 13? when will it be out?  I KNOW THIS HAS BEEN A WILD 24 HOURS FOR EVERYONE, so I can wait!