Top 25 discussion

[sumfun]

And what a game it was!!!!  Thanks for the tip to watch it.  Two good teams going head to head. 

[WUPHF]

I think the odds are high that the new top five (IWU, Amherst, WashU, Kean, and Hope) stay unchanged for the rest of the season. Anyone disagree or think there is a loss coming to one of those teams?

Illinois Wesleyan:  @ Carthage and home against Elmhurst are their two strongest remaining opponents on paper.  Of course, they waxed Carthage at home and have already beaten Elmhurst on the road.  We'll see.

I had to look again to see if you were 1-1 in your predictions.  You did not make much of a commitment in this regard, so I will have to say no.

[sunny]

I think the odds are high that the new top five (IWU, Amherst, WashU, Kean, and Hope) stay unchanged for the rest of the season. Anyone disagree or think there is a loss coming to one of those teams?

Illinois Wesleyan:  @ Carthage and home against Elmhurst are their two strongest remaining opponents on paper.  Of course, they waxed Carthage at home and have already beaten Elmhurst on the road.  We'll see.

I had to look again to see if you were 1-1 in your predictions.  You did not make much of a commitment in this regard, so I will have to say no.

Neither one was really a prediction.  I'll take more credit for Wash U @ Rochester though as I saw that as one of the toughest remaining games for any of those teams.  I simply mentioned @Carthage for IWU because I was trying to pick out a game or two that would be IWU's biggest risk(s) of losing.  Have to say I was pretty surprised by the outcome yesterday given their earlier meeting, though not nearly as surprised as I'll be if Kean loses before the NCAA Tournament.

[Darryl Nester]

How They Fared

Top 25

Rank	Pts	Team	W-L	Results
#1	620	Illinois Wesleyan	18-1	def. Augustana, 82-60; LOST at #20 Carthage, 67-72
#2	597	Amherst	19-0	def. T#18 Bowdoin, 72-63; def. #30 Colby, 84-63
#3	566	Washington U.	16-2	LOST at Rochester, 51-63; def. Emory, 70-60
#4	561	Kean	20-1	def. New Jersey City, 89-31
#5	521	Hope	18-1	def. Trine, 56-30; def. Olivet, 77-41
#6	483	Scranton	17-3	LOST at #15 Messiah, 55-62; def. Merchant Marine, 81-51; def. Drew, 61-47
#7	457	George Fox	17-2	def. Pacific, 73-50; def. #16 Puget Sound, 60-51
#8	405	Marymount	19-1	def. St. Mary's (Md.), 70-54; def. Wesley, 62-46
#9	395	William Paterson	20-1	def. New Jersey City, 60-47; def. Rowan, 70-67
T#10	362	Calvin	18-2	def. St. Mary's (Ind.), 67-57; def. Kalamazoo, 74-57
T#10	362	Muhlenberg	14-3	def. Swarthmore, 69-54; def. Haverford, 74-53; LOST at Johns Hopkins, 66-73
#12	318	Tufts	18-2	def. Emerson, 59-49; def. Wesleyan, 62-53; def. Connecticut College, 64-39
#13	295	Moravian	18-2	def. Alvernia, 97-63; def. Drew, 108-70; def. Merchant Marine, 82-61
#14	293	Christopher Newport	18-0	def. Mary Baldwin, 92-50
#15	265	Messiah	17-2	def. #6 Scranton, 62-55; def. Widener, 62-45
#16	240	Puget Sound	16-3	LOST to #7 George Fox, 51-60; def. Linfield, 75-56
#17	235	Thomas More	17-2	def. Chatham, 74-61; def. Westminster (Pa.), 76-49
T#18	179	Bowdoin	15-4	def. Maine Maritime, 64-52; LOST to #2 Amherst, 63-72; def. Trinity (Conn.), 53-52
T#18	179	UW-Stevens Point	17-3	def. #22 UW-Whitewater, 68-51; def. UW-Superior, 66-50
#20	175	Carthage	16-3	def. North Park, 65-41; def. #1 Illinois Wesleyan, 72-67
#21	122	Washington and Jefferson	17-2	def. Grove City, 61-58; def. Thiel, 69-34
#22	119	UW-Whitewater	14-5	LOST to T#18 UW-Stevens Point, 51-68; def. UW-Stout, 75-69
#23	83	Lebanon Valley	18-1	def. Manhattanville, 61-51; def. Arcadia, 66-43
#24	57	DePauw	17-3	def. T#35 Austin, 69-38; def. Colorado College, 81-66
#25	46	Chicago	13-5	def. Emory, 80-70; LOST at Rochester, 52-54 OT

Others receiving votes

Rank	Pts	Team	W-L	Results
#26	36	UW-River Falls	15-4	LOST to UW-Superior, 54-55; def. UW-Oshkosh, 59-50
#27	29	Louisiana College	15-2	def. Texas-Dallas, 62-58; 01/30 at University of the Ozarks (cancelled)
#28	28	Mount Union	16-3	def. Marietta, 63-55; LOST at Wilmington, 60-66
#29	25	Farmingdale State	18-0	def. Mount St. Vincent, 69-68
#30	20	Colby	15-3	def. Maine-Farmington, 88-45; def. Trinity (Conn.), 75-62; LOST to #2 Amherst, 63-84
#31	19	Mary Washington	14-3	def. Wesley, 63-43; 01/30 at Gallaudet (postponed to 02/01)
#32	9	Gettysburg	16-2	def. Dickinson, 56-54; def. Washington College, 77-68
#33	6	Baldwin-Wallace	15-4	def. John Carroll, 74-62; def. Marietta, 73-46
#34	4	Emmanuel	14-4	def. Simmons, 79-54
T#35	3	Austin	14-5	LOST to #24 DePauw, 38-69; LOST to Centre, 67-84
T#35	3	Elmhurst	14-5	def. North Central (Ill.), 86-72; def. Augustana, 71-46
T#35	3	Lewis and Clark	12-7	LOST at Whitman, 56-61; LOST at Whitworth, 65-75
#38	2	St. Norbert	13-3	def. Carroll, 66-51; def. Beloit, 70-42
T#39	1	Gustavus Adolphus	15-3	def. St. Mary's (Minn.), 68-49; def. St. Catherine's, 83-71
T#39	1	Simpson	17-3	def. Cornell, 78-51; def. Loras, 82-63
T#39	1	Western Connecticut	17-3	def. Eastern Connecticut, 55-44; LOST at Mass-Dartmouth, 53-57

[gordonmann]

New poll posted.

http://www.d3hoops.com/

[Mr. Ypsi]

While Carthage made a pretty good jump (#20 to #14), I was somewhat disappointed (though not surprised) they didn't jump even further.

#3 IWU's ONLY loss is to Carthage.  #4 Hope's ONLY loss is to Carthage.  True, they have three losses [a blowout at IWU, close ones to Elmhurst (who also battled IWU to the end) and to NAIA D1 Robert Morris-Chicago (I have no idea how they are in women's hoops, but are a perennial power in men's)].  While I expected about the spot they landed, I believe they are certainly among the top ten teams in d3.

[sunny]

While Carthage made a pretty good jump (#20 to #14), I was somewhat disappointed (though not surprised) they didn't jump even further.

#3 IWU's ONLY loss is to Carthage.  #4 Hope's ONLY loss is to Carthage.  True, they have three losses [a blowout at IWU, close ones to Elmhurst (who also battled IWU to the end) and to NAIA D1 Robert Morris-Chicago (I have no idea how they are in women's hoops, but are a perennial power in men's)].  While I expected about the spot they landed, I believe they are certainly among the top ten teams in d3.

Mr. Ypsi,

Thanks for the insight.  I had them at #13 this week but will re-evaluate.  I have little doubt Carthage can play with anyone but there are two sides here, and they are tough to judge.

Pros
1) I had Hope at #3, IWU at #4, and Calvin at #6 this week.  Carthage has beaten every one of those teams.  Not only are they Hope's and IWU's only losses, they are Calvin's only loss other than their loss to Hope (who is ranked higher than them).  
2) They did beat a very good Chicago team on the road.

'Cons' (not really negative, but you get the idea)
1) Other than the two-point win at Chicago, they have beaten exactly one over-.500 team on a rival floor (Monmouth in the first game of the season).  (The win over Hope was on a neutral floor.)
2) Yes, they avenged an earlier loss to IWU, but they were blown out in the earlier meeting plus they lost to Elmhust at home.  So, currently, they are 1-2 against the other top two teams in their own conference.

They will get a chance to remedy both of those "con" points soon as their next two road contests are at above .500 teams Wheaton and Elmhurst.  The Elmhurst road game should answer a lot of questions.  If they lose a competitive road game, they probably slip a little.  If they get blown out, you have to really question their ability to beat good teams on the road.  If they win, they answer a lot of questions and really make the margin of defeat at IWU and the home loss to Elmhurst look more like outliers.  

All that said, 13 is probably a little low currently.  If I had to do it over, I'd probably put them at 10 or 11 right now.  

[Mr. Ypsi]

sunny,

Thanks for the reply.  I've learned to take individual games (and even a series of matchups) with a bit of salt.  A few years ago (2006?) IWU humiliated the Augustana men, jumping out to a 34-3(?) lead (at Augie, on Senior Night, no less).  Augie won the CCIW that year.  Just two years ago, the IWU men went 3-0 against Wheaton - Wheaton made the Elite 8; the Titans (deservedly) did not even get selected for the tourney.

My point is to not take too much to heart IWU's destruction of Carthage - those things happen now and then.  Elmhurst probably has too many losses to ever get much serious attention, but they are a VERY dangerous team (Lyndsie Long should end up on one of the AA teams).  I don't know about Robert Morris-Chicago, but they are a scholarship team.

IF IWU and Carthage end up in different quadrants, I would not bet heavily against them meeting again in Bloomington in the Final Four.

[sunny]

sunny,

Thanks for the reply.  I've learned to take individual games (and even a series of matchups) with a bit of salt.  A few years ago (2006?) IWU humiliated the Augustana men, jumping out to a 34-3(?) lead (at Augie, on Senior Night, no less).  Augie won the CCIW that year.  Just two years ago, the IWU men went 3-0 against Wheaton - Wheaton made the Elite 8; the Titans (deservedly) did not even get selected for the tourney.

My point is to not take too much to heart IWU's destruction of Carthage - those things happen now and then.  Elmhurst probably has too many losses to ever get much serious attention, but they are a VERY dangerous team (Lyndsie Long should end up on one of the AA teams).  I don't know about Robert Morris-Chicago, but they are a scholarship team.

IF IWU and Carthage end up in different quadrants, I would not bet heavily against them meeting again in Bloomington in the Final Four.

Sure, in reality, I can't put too much stock in big blowouts, but when you're trying to differentiate #13 from #8 out of 400+ teams, you have to take all that into account.  If you saw my post earlier in the season about Carthage, you'd see that I was tooting their horn then.  Kind of just a wait and see on how high up to raise them again.  (I had them MUCH higher than the poll as a whole did at one point earlier in the season.)

Carthage in the final four would not surprise me much either.

[Pat Coleman]

I've learned to take individual games (and even a series of matchups) with a bit of salt. 

As I am sure many of our voters do as well.

Of course, some of them may be taking the narrow home win with a grain of salt, while you seem to be taking the other one that way.

[Mr. Ypsi]

I've learned to take individual games (and even a series of matchups) with a bit of salt. 

As I am sure many of our voters do as well.

Of course, some of them may be taking the narrow home win with a grain of salt, while you seem to be taking the other one that way.

Touche'!

[sac]

Carthage's win over Hope also came the first game without Hope's all-american Carrie Snikkers.

[Darryl Nester]

How They Fared--Midweek Report

For some reason (that I don't have time to track down right now) the ORV report is not working, so I'll just post the top 25 for now. Fixed.

Top 25

Rank	Pts	Team	W-L	Results
#1	615	Amherst	19-0	02/05 at Bates; 02/06 at #10 Tufts
#2	597	Kean	21-1	def. Rutgers-Camden, 84-36; 02/06 vs. Rowan
#3	556	Illinois Wesleyan	19-1	def. North Central (Ill.), 86-52; 02/06 vs. Elmhurst
#4	551	Hope	19-1	def. #9 Calvin, 61-50; 02/06 at Alma
#5	511	George Fox	17-2	02/05 vs. Whitman; 02/06 vs. Whitworth
#6	453	Washington U.	16-2	02/05 vs. #24 Rochester; 02/07 vs. Emory
#7	436	Marymount	20-1	def. York (Pa.), 75-57; 02/06 vs. Stevenson
#8	409	William Paterson	21-1	def. Ramapo, 67-50
#9	403	Calvin	18-3	LOST to #4 Hope, 50-61
#10	356	Tufts	18-2	02/05 vs. Trinity (Conn.); 02/06 vs. #1 Amherst
#11	352	Messiah	18-2	def. Elizabethtown, 67-52; 02/06 at Alvernia
#12	343	Moravian	18-2	02/05 at Catholic; 02/06 at Goucher
#13	341	Scranton	17-3	02/05 at Goucher; 02/06 at Catholic
#14	309	Carthage	17-3	def. Wheaton (Ill.), 71-68; 02/06 vs. Augustana
#15	305	Christopher Newport	19-0	def. Peace, 90-46; 02/06 at North Carolina Wesleyan
#16	243	UW-Stevens Point	17-4	LOST to UW-Stout, 76-90
#17	232	Thomas More	18-2	def. Geneva, 93-63; 02/06 vs. #20 Washington and Jefferson
#18	188	Puget Sound	17-3	def. Pacific Lutheran, 69-54; 02/05 at Willamette
#19	177	Muhlenberg	16-3	def. Dickinson, 77-41; def. Swarthmore, 71-53; 02/06 at Franklin and Marshall
#20	157	Washington and Jefferson	18-2	def. St. Vincent, 66-58; 02/06 at #17 Thomas More
#21	127	Lebanon Valley	19-1	def. Lycoming, 66-54; 02/06 at Widener
#22	97	DePauw	17-3	02/06 vs. Centre
#23	81	Bowdoin	15-4	02/05 at Middlebury; 02/06 at Williams
#24	75	Rochester	15-3	02/05 at #6 Washington U.; 02/07 at Chicago
#25	43	Farmingdale State	18-0	IDLE

Others receiving votes

Rank	Pts	Team	W-L	Results
T#26	39	Louisiana College	15-2	02/04 vs. Texas-Dallas; 02/06 vs. University of the Ozarks
T#26	39	UW-Whitewater	15-5	def. UW-La Crosse, 69-64; 02/06 at T#36 UW-River Falls
#28	28	Mary Washington	16-3	def. Gallaudet, 57-44; def. Stevenson, 81-30; 02/06 vs. St. Mary's (Md.)
T#29	7	Baldwin-Wallace	16-4	def. Heidelberg, 61-39; 02/06 vs. Capital
T#29	7	Chicago	13-5	02/05 vs. Emory; 02/07 vs. #24 Rochester
T#29	7	Gettysburg	18-2	def. Haverford, 54-38; def. Johns Hopkins, 66-62; 02/06 vs. Ursinus
T#29	7	Simpson	18-3	def. Luther, 74-58; 02/06 vs. Wartburg
T#33	6	Emmanuel	15-4	def. Wesleyan, 88-82; 02/06 at Pine Manor
T#33	6	Mount Union	17-3	def. John Carroll, 83-80; 02/06 vs. Ohio Northern
#35	5	Colby	16-3	def. Southern Maine, 64-54; 02/05 at Williams; 02/06 at Middlebury
T#36	4	Elmhurst	14-6	LOST to Millikin, 64-72; 02/06 at #3 Illinois Wesleyan
T#36	4	McDaniel	16-4	def. Swarthmore, 71-66; def. Dickinson, 74-63; 02/06 at Haverford
T#36	4	UW-River Falls	16-4	def. UW-Eau Claire, 83-62; 02/06 vs. T#26 UW-Whitewater
#39	3	St. Norbert	14-3	def. Lawrence, 67-34; 02/05 vs. Monmouth; 02/06 vs. Lake Forest
#40	2	Gustavus Adolphus	17-3	def. Augsburg, 87-68; def. Macalester, 74-66; 02/06 at Hamline

[Ralph Turner]

+1! Darryl.  Thanks for updating the board (M&W both)!

This post and Old School's compilation yesterday are invaluable to us fans!

+1! to both of you!

[Darryl Nester]

How They Fared

Top 25

Rank	Pts	Team	W-L	Results
#1	615	Amherst	21-0	def. Bates, 72-66; def. #10 Tufts, 65-56
#2	597	Kean	21-1	def. Rutgers-Camden, 84-36
#3	556	Illinois Wesleyan	20-1	def. North Central (Ill.), 86-52; def. T#36 Elmhurst, 73-60
#4	551	Hope	20-1	def. #9 Calvin, 61-50; def. Alma, 71-60
#5	511	George Fox	19-2	def. Whitman, 50-46; def. Whitworth, 70-43
#6	453	Washington U.	18-2	def. #24 Rochester, 68-40; def. Emory, 61-47
#7	436	Marymount	20-1	def. York (Pa.), 75-57
#8	409	William Paterson	21-1	def. Ramapo, 67-50
#9	403	Calvin	18-3	LOST to #4 Hope, 50-61
#10	356	Tufts	19-3	def. Trinity (Conn.), 68-58; LOST to #1 Amherst, 56-65
#11	352	Messiah	18-2	def. Elizabethtown, 67-52
#12	343	Moravian	18-2	IDLE
#13	341	Scranton	17-3	IDLE
#14	309	Carthage	18-3	def. Wheaton (Ill.), 71-68; def. Augustana, 80-35
#15	305	Christopher Newport	20-0	def. Peace, 90-46; def. North Carolina Wesleyan, 85-58
#16	243	UW-Stevens Point	17-4	LOST to UW-Stout, 76-90
#17	232	Thomas More	19-2	def. Geneva, 93-63; def. #20 Washington and Jefferson, 64-38
#18	188	Puget Sound	18-3	def. Pacific Lutheran, 69-54; def. Willamette, 76-33
#19	177	Muhlenberg	16-3	def. Dickinson, 77-41; def. Swarthmore, 71-53
#20	157	Washington and Jefferson	18-3	def. St. Vincent, 66-58; LOST at #17 Thomas More, 38-64
#21	127	Lebanon Valley	19-2	def. Lycoming, 66-54; LOST at Widener, 60-68
#22	97	DePauw	18-3	def. Centre, 68-50
#23	81	Bowdoin	16-5	def. Middlebury, 61-45; LOST at Williams, 54-75
#24	75	Rochester	15-5	LOST at #6 Washington U., 40-68; LOST at T#29 Chicago, 64-73
#25	43	Farmingdale State	18-0	IDLE

Others receiving votes

Rank	Pts	Team	W-L	Results
T#26	39	Louisiana College	17-2	def. Texas-Dallas, 58-47; def. University of the Ozarks, 72-60
T#26	39	UW-Whitewater	15-6	def. UW-La Crosse, 69-64; LOST at T#36 UW-River Falls, 48-64
#28	28	Mary Washington	16-3	def. Gallaudet, 57-44; def. Stevenson, 81-30
T#29	7	Baldwin-Wallace	16-5	def. Heidelberg, 61-39; LOST to Capital, 59-76
T#29	7	Chicago	15-5	def. Emory, 81-52; def. #24 Rochester, 73-64
T#29	7	Gettysburg	19-2	def. Haverford, 54-38; def. Johns Hopkins, 66-62; def. Ursinus, 60-38
T#29	7	Simpson	19-3	def. Luther, 74-58; def. Wartburg, 84-63
T#33	6	Emmanuel	16-4	def. Wesleyan, 88-82; def. Pine Manor, 90-63
T#33	6	Mount Union	18-3	def. John Carroll, 83-80; def. Ohio Northern, 61-51
#35	5	Colby	18-3	def. Southern Maine, 64-54; def. Williams, 74-68 OT; def. Middlebury, 63-54
T#36	4	Elmhurst	14-7	LOST to Millikin, 64-72; LOST at #3 Illinois Wesleyan, 60-73
T#36	4	McDaniel	16-4	def. Swarthmore, 71-66; def. Dickinson, 74-63
T#36	4	UW-River Falls	17-4	def. UW-Eau Claire, 83-62; def. T#26 UW-Whitewater, 64-48
#39	3	St. Norbert	16-3	def. Lawrence, 67-34; def. Monmouth, 59-45; def. Lake Forest, 64-47
#40	2	Gustavus Adolphus	17-4	def. Augsburg, 87-68; def. Macalester, 74-66; LOST at Hamline, 65-69