Top 25 discussion

[Pat Coleman]

Depends on the week. In this case, they were.

[ronk]

By my quick count, there are three teams currently in the top 25 who have at least two wins against other teams currently in the Top 25: Illinois Wesleyan (4-0), Carthage (3-0), and Scranton (2-2).  (Special mention to Emmanuel, who is 1-1 against current Top 25ers and also has a win over Brandeis who missed the Top 25 by three points this week.)

Scranton is 3-2 having beaten Muhlenberg, Trinity, and UW-Whitewater.


EDITED to resolve a confusion with the quote.

[sunny]

Trinity is no longer in the Top 25.  I was referring to teams currently in the top 25, not those who were in it when the teams played.

[rorurap]

Strength of schedule is a great way to evaluate the Top 25.  But there are other factors.  A team's injury status or key player absence may not be recognized just by reading the scores and concluding that a team barely beat an "easy win" team.  For example, in Kean's win over Widener, Widener had a 12 point lead at half,  whoa what's going on here?  Whoops, Kean's best player rode the bench in the first half, played the second half, scored 10 points and Kean won by 9.
Marymount has had a proverbial "boot brigade" with  5 players in boots/on crutches in early games including Kathleen Brown, a preseason All American pick, missing the first 6 games including the Wesley game, and not starting until game 12.  If key players join a team after a few games that might also be missed by just reading the scores.  Again in Marymount's case, Tara Eddy, a defensive catalyst joined the team after the first semester and has really strengthened that team.  Comparing scores and margin of victory of common opponents is not reliable either.  For example, yesterday Illinois Wesleyen beat North Central by 14 while Marymount  beat the same team by 19.  Both winners cleared the bench and may have been trying different offenses/defenses/player combos or were just trying to keep some parents happy and turned larger wins into smaller ones.   

[sunny]

Strength of schedule is a great way to evaluate the Top 25.  But there are other factors.  A team's injury status or key player absence may not be recognized just by reading the scores and concluding that a team barely beat an "easy win" team.  For example, in Kean's win over Widener, Widener had a 12 point lead at half,  whoa what's going on here?  Whoops, Kean's best player rode the bench in the first half, played the second half, scored 10 points and Kean won by 9.
Marymount has had a proverbial "boot brigade" with  5 players in boots/on crutches in early games including Kathleen Brown, a preseason All American pick, missing the first 6 games including the Wesley game, and not starting until game 12.  If key players join a team after a few games that might also be missed by just reading the scores.  Again in Marymount's case, Tara Eddy, a defensive catalyst joined the team after the first semester and has really strengthened that team.  Comparing scores and margin of victory of common opponents is not reliable either.  For example, yesterday Illinois Wesleyen beat North Central by 14 while Marymount  beat the same team by 19.  Both winners cleared the bench and may have been trying different offenses/defenses/player combos or were just trying to keep some parents happy and turned larger wins into smaller ones.    

In the case of Marymount, it's not simply the margin of victory at Wesley, it's that that was their only true road game.  I have them ranked highly and, obviously, they can't do any better than undefeated at this point.  My point is that when a team has played all of those home and neutral games and has not played anyone getting votes in the top 25, as a voter, I am going to penalize that team more when it does lose than I would a team like Illinois Wesleyan, who has played a much tougher schedule thus far. (Actually, the idea that Marymount is now healthier than they were earlier in the season could lend itself to the idea of giving them less of a free pass for one loss than if they lost when they had five players hurt ...)

Of course, Marymount will likely make the tournament, which means it will have a shot at the real prize, which has nothing to do with polls.  

I don't pay too much attention to common opponent scores or, especially, margin of victory over common opponents (unless Team A has absolutely blown out two or three teams that Team B needed OT to beat or something like that).  There is usually little difference - for evaluation purposes anyway - between a 14-point win and a 19-point win.

[ronk]

Trinity is no longer in the Top 25.  I was referring to teams currently in the top 25, not those who were in it when the teams played.

  Understood - I didn't realize a new poll had been released before your statement.

[Darryl Nester]

How They Fared -- Midweek Report

Top 25

Rank	Pts	Team	W-L	Results
#1	618	Illinois Wesleyan	12-0	def. North Central (Ill.), 77-63; 01/09 vs. #11 Carthage
#2	594	Amherst	11-0	def. Wesleyan, 80-53; 01/09 at Williams
#3	572	Washington U.	10-1	def. Webster, 88-40; 01/09 vs. #21 Chicago
#4	540	Kean	14-1	def. Rowan, 85-47; 01/09 vs. #9 William Paterson
#5	538	Bowdoin	9-0	01/07 vs. Bates; 01/09 vs. #23 Emmanuel
#6	463	Hope	11-1	def. Alma, 79-58; 01/09 at Kalamazoo
#7	457	Marymount	13-0	def. York (Pa.), 62-27; 01/09 at Salisbury
#8	402	Scranton	8-2	def. Albright, 56-48; 01/08 at Drew; 01/09 at Merchant Marine
#9	369	William Paterson	14-0	def. Widener, 59-40; 01/09 at #4 Kean
#10	365	Muhlenberg	7-1	01/09 vs. Johns Hopkins
#11	346	Carthage	11-1	def. Wheaton (Ill.), 69-52; 01/09 at #1 Illinois Wesleyan
#12	290	George Fox	9-2	def. Pacific, 67-46; 01/08 at Whitman; 01/09 at Whitworth
#13	288	UW-River Falls	13-0	def. UW-Stout, 68-65 OT; 01/09 at #19 UW-Whitewater
#14	258	Thomas More	10-1	01/07 at #36 Washington and Jefferson; 01/09 vs. Waynesburg
#15	235	Tufts	11-1	def. #23 Emmanuel, 57-51; 01/09 vs. Bates
#16	227	Mount Union	12-1	LOST to Baldwin-Wallace, 53-65; 01/09 vs. Otterbein
#17	210	Messiah	10-1	def. #37 Cal Lutheran, 66-62; 01/07 at Baptist Bible; 01/09 vs. Widener
#18	198	Moravian	9-2	01/08 at Merchant Marine; 01/09 at Drew
#19	194	UW-Whitewater	10-3	def. Clarke, 82-53; 01/09 vs. #13 UW-River Falls
#20	170	Calvin	11-1	01/09 at Trine
#21	115	Chicago	8-3	01/09 at #3 Washington U.
#22	105	Louisiana College	8-1	01/07 at Mary Hardin-Baylor; 01/09 at Concordia-Austin
#23	90	Emmanuel	8-2	LOST at #15 Tufts, 51-57; 01/07 vs. St. Joseph's (Maine); 01/09 at #5 Bowdoin
#24	60	Howard Payne	10-2	def. Sul Ross State, 65-51; 01/07 vs. Texas-Tyler
#25	58	UW-Stevens Point	9-3	def. UW-Oshkosh, 51-47; 01/09 vs. UW-La Crosse

Others receiving votes

Rank	Pts	Team	W-L	Results
#26	55	Brandeis	7-3	LOST to University of New England, 77-81; 01/09 at New York University
#27	47	Gettysburg	11-0	def. Swarthmore, 51-48; 01/09 at Washington College
#28	45	Christopher Newport	11-0	def. Shenandoah, 64-56; 01/09 at Mary Baldwin
#29	42	St. Benedict	9-1	def. St. Olaf, 66-40; def. Augsburg, 84-56; 01/09 at Concordia-Moorhead
#30	40	Puget Sound	10-2	def. Pacific Lutheran, 61-54; 01/08 vs. Willamette
#31	27	Simpson	9-3	LOST at Wartburg, 74-94; 01/09 vs. Loras
#32	22	Trinity (Texas)	8-3	01/08 at Hendrix; 01/09 at Millsaps
#33	21	Mississippi College	10-1	01/07 at Concordia-Austin; 01/09 at Mary Hardin-Baylor
#34	19	Lewis and Clark	8-3	01/08 vs. Linfield; 01/09 at Pacific Lutheran
#35	15	St. Norbert	7-2	def. Beloit, 68-65; 01/09 at Ripon

[sunny]

Messiah ahead of Emmanuel when Emmanuel beat them head to head on a neutral floor?

Emmanuel has played all comers this year and took a tough loss against Amherst who could be a strong Final Four entry.

Some of the rankings this year have looked so out of place.

Hats off to Emmanuel coming back from the tough loss to Tufts and the disappointing slip-up against St. Joseph's to knock off Bowdoin.  Have them penciled in at #19 (and there aren't any games today that should effect that).  Had them #14 last week, so dropping only five spots with a 1-2 week really isn't that bad.  Too bad about the St. Joseph's loss - really stings ... I probably would have them higher than last week if not for that.

I really can't see any choice for myself but to move Marymount up to No. 5 after some of the lopsided "showdowns" that occurred this weekend.  Still a bit suspect of that schedule, but holding York to 27 points isn't easily dismissed.  Game at Mary Wash this coming Saturday is, theoretically, their toughest test thus far. 

Bowdoin losing combined with what IWU, Kean, and Wash U did to Carthage, William Paterson, and Chicago, respectively, along with Amherst's continued dominance in the northeast, it will be interesting to see just how far ahead of the pack (vote-point wise) "the big four" are this week from everyone else. 

Kean dropping 102 on William Paterson and winning by 36 points against the previously-unbeaten Pioneers sure makes Scranton's 70-45 loss to the Cougars look a lot better!

[Darryl Nester]

How They Fared

Every score posted already!  That might be a new record.

Top 25

Rank	Pts	Team	W-L	Results
#1	618	Illinois Wesleyan	13-0	def. North Central (Ill.), 77-63; def. #11 Carthage, 76-48
#2	594	Amherst	12-0	def. Wesleyan, 80-53; def. Williams, 75-51
#3	572	Washington U.	11-1	def. Webster, 88-40; def. #21 Chicago, 63-34
#4	540	Kean	15-1	def. Rowan, 85-47; def. #9 William Paterson, 102-66
#5	538	Bowdoin	10-1	def. Bates, 52-49; LOST to #23 Emmanuel, 53-61
#6	463	Hope	12-1	def. Alma, 79-58; def. Kalamazoo, 80-51
#7	457	Marymount	14-0	def. York (Pa.), 62-27; def. Salisbury, 63-41
#8	402	Scranton	10-2	def. Albright, 56-48; def. Drew, 77-61; def. Merchant Marine, 69-55
#9	369	William Paterson	14-1	def. Widener, 59-40; LOST at #4 Kean, 66-102
#10	365	Muhlenberg	8-1	def. Johns Hopkins, 79-65
#11	346	Carthage	11-2	def. Wheaton (Ill.), 69-52; LOST at #1 Illinois Wesleyan, 48-76
#12	290	George Fox	11-2	def. Pacific, 67-46; def. Whitman, 60-49; def. Whitworth, 60-51
#13	288	UW-River Falls	13-1	def. UW-Stout, 68-65 OT; LOST at #19 UW-Whitewater, 62-76
#14	258	Thomas More	11-2	LOST at #36 Washington and Jefferson, 57-61; def. Waynesburg, 82-52
#15	235	Tufts	12-1	def. #23 Emmanuel, 57-51; def. Bates, 78-52
#16	227	Mount Union	12-2	LOST to Baldwin-Wallace, 53-65; LOST to Otterbein, 49-58
#17	210	Messiah	12-1	def. #37 Cal Lutheran, 66-62; def. Baptist Bible, 88-24; def. Widener, 74-39
#18	198	Moravian	11-2	def. Merchant Marine, 84-44; def. Drew, 86-60
#19	194	UW-Whitewater	11-3	def. Clarke, 82-53; def. #13 UW-River Falls, 76-62
#20	170	Calvin	12-1	def. Trine, 58-40
#21	115	Chicago	8-4	LOST at #3 Washington U., 34-63
#22	105	Louisiana College	9-2	LOST at Mary Hardin-Baylor, 44-53; def. Concordia-Austin, 78-58
#23	90	Emmanuel	9-3	LOST at #15 Tufts, 51-57; LOST to St. Joseph's (Maine), 47-60; def. #5 Bowdoin, 61-53
#24	60	Howard Payne	11-2	def. Sul Ross State, 65-51; def. Texas-Tyler, 101-56
#25	58	UW-Stevens Point	10-3	def. UW-Oshkosh, 51-47; def. UW-La Crosse, 88-76

Others receiving votes

Rank	Pts	Team	W-L	Results
#26	55	Brandeis	8-3	LOST to University of New England, 77-81; def. New York University, 73-68
#27	47	Gettysburg	12-0	def. Swarthmore, 51-48; def. Washington College, 79-63
#28	45	Christopher Newport	12-0	def. Shenandoah, 64-56; def. Mary Baldwin, 77-72
#29	42	St. Benedict	9-2	def. St. Olaf, 66-40; def. Augsburg, 84-56; LOST at Concordia-Moorhead, 56-68
#30	40	Puget Sound	11-2	def. Pacific Lutheran, 61-54; def. Willamette, 76-49
#31	27	Simpson	10-3	LOST at Wartburg, 74-94; def. Loras, 78-67 OT
#32	22	Trinity (Texas)	9-4	LOST at Hendrix, 51-57; def. Millsaps, 62-58
#33	21	Mississippi College	11-2	def. Concordia-Austin, 72-51; LOST at Mary Hardin-Baylor, 71-76
#34	19	Lewis and Clark	10-3	def. Linfield, 73-65; def. Pacific Lutheran, 74-62
#35	15	St. Norbert	7-3	def. Beloit, 68-65; LOST at Ripon, 61-62
#36	11	Washington and Jefferson	11-2	def. St. Vincent, 55-53; def. #14 Thomas More, 61-57; def. Westminster (Pa.), 65-51
#37	10	Cal Lutheran	9-3	LOST to #17 Messiah, 62-66; def. Claremont-Mudd-Scripps, 68-41; def. Caltech, 73-27
#38	6	Southern Maine	10-3	def. Regis (Mass.), 74-59; def. Husson, 79-74 2OT; def. Mass-Dartmouth, 61-60
#39	3	Case Western Reserve	10-3	LOST at Rochester, 52-62; def. Emory, 64-55

[jumphigh]

Why does Scranton have such a high ranking? 8th in the country with a 7-2 record, they always seem to have a high rank with an average record

[Ralph Turner]

Why does Scranton have such a high ranking? 8th in the country with a 7-2 record, they always seem to have a high rank with an average record

Scranton had a very good tourney in Las Vegas where they beat respected opponents on a neutral floor.

I know that Trinity TX is down a little this season, but the win over UWW is also solid.

The early season losses to Kean and Moravian bear watching.  Can Moravian sweep the series in the last regular season game?

[Pat Coleman]

Why does Scranton have such a high ranking? 8th in the country with a 7-2 record, they always seem to have a high rank with an average record

It's occasionally instructive to look at who they've played.

[saratoga]

jumphigh: As John McEnroe was known to say, "You can not be serious". High ranking with average records? Let me enlighten you.
These are Scranton's records from last year through 2000.
2009...26-5 (Elite 8).
2008...21-6 (NCAA).
2007...27-3 (Elite 8).
2006...31-2 (NCAA Final 4, 3rd. place).
2005...29-3 (NCAA Final 4, 4th. place).
2004...27-3 (Sweet 16).
2003...23-5 (NCAA 2nd. round).
2002...25-5 (NCAA 1st. round).
2001...20-5.
2000...26-5 (NCAA Final 4, 4th. place).
In addition to these "average" records, Scranton consistantly plays one of the toughest, if not THE toughest schedules in DIII year in & year out. Over a 10 year period they are averaging less than 4 losses per year.
I hope this gives you a bit more insight as to why a team with 2 losses may be ranked higher than a team with fewer.

[sunny]

Why does Scranton have such a high ranking? 8th in the country with a 7-2 record, they always seem to have a high rank with an average record

With well over 400 teams in the Division, I would guess that, regardless of the statistical method used, an "average record" would be right around the .500 mark ...

[Darryl Nester]

How They Fared--Midweek Report

Top 25

Rank	Pts	Team	W-L	Results
#1	620	Illinois Wesleyan	14-0	def. Millikin, 64-42; 01/17 at Elmhurst
#2	595	Amherst	13-0	def. Clark, 87-44; 01/15 vs. Wesleyan; 01/16 vs. Connecticut College
#3	570	Washington U.	11-1	01/15 vs. #32 Brandeis; 01/17 vs. New York University
#4	559	Kean	16-1	def. Richard Stockton, 63-51; 01/16 at Ramapo
#5	500	Marymount	15-0	def. Stevenson, 47-27; 01/16 at Mary Washington
#6	498	Hope	13-1	def. St. Mary's (Ind.), 91-72; 01/16 at Albion
#7	443	Scranton	10-2	01/15 at Juniata; 01/16 at Susquehanna
#8	419	Bowdoin	12-1	def. William Smith, 74-58; def. Hamilton, 59-47; 01/16 vs. Colby
#9	406	Muhlenberg	8-2	LOST to McDaniel, 71-72 OT; 01/14 at #21 Gettysburg; 01/16 at Washington College
#10	352	George Fox	11-2	01/15 vs. Willamette; 01/16 vs. Linfield
#11	332	Tufts	12-1	01/15 at Williams; 01/16 at Middlebury
#12	303	Carthage	11-3	LOST to Elmhurst, 65-73; 01/16 at Augustana
#13	297	William Paterson	15-1	def. Rutgers-Newark, 74-36; 01/16 vs. Richard Stockton
#14	267	Messiah	13-1	def. Lycoming, 70-48; 01/16 vs. Alvernia
#15	259	UW-Whitewater	12-3	def. UW-Oshkosh, 76-64; 01/16 at UW-Eau Claire
#16	253	Moravian	11-2	01/15 at Susquehanna; 01/16 at Juniata
#17	248	Calvin	13-1	def. Albion, 65-44; 01/16 at Adrian
#18	243	UW-River Falls	13-2	LOST to UW-La Crosse, 52-67; 01/16 vs. UW-Platteville
#19	150	Thomas More	12-2	def. Bethany, 78-71 OT; 01/16 vs. Thiel
#20	122	Christopher Newport	13-0	def. North Carolina Wesleyan, 84-29; 01/16 at Averett; 01/17 at Ferrum
#21	120	Gettysburg	13-0	def. Bryn Mawr, 83-34; 01/14 vs. #9 Muhlenberg
#22	108	Puget Sound	11-2	01/15 vs. Whitworth; 01/16 vs. Whitman
#23	102	Howard Payne	11-2	01/14 at Concordia-Austin; 01/16 at Mary Hardin-Baylor
#24	98	UW-Stevens Point	12-3	def. Edgewood, 61-47; def. UW-Platteville, 66-45; 01/16 at UW-Superior
#25	84	Emmanuel	10-3	def. Lasell, 67-35; 01/14 at Salem State; 01/16 at Suffolk

Others receiving votes

Rank	Pts	Team	W-L	Results
#26	57	Washington and Jefferson	12-2	def. Chatham, 53-50; 01/16 at Waynesburg
#27	28	Chicago	8-4	01/15 vs. New York University; 01/17 vs. #32 Brandeis
#28	18	Mount Union	13-2	def. Muskingum, 70-58; 01/16 vs. Capital
#29	17	Lewis and Clark	11-3	def. Willamette, 61-40; 01/16 at Pacific
#30	11	St. Benedict	10-2	def. Hamline, 71-64; 01/16 vs. St. Thomas
#31	10	Southern Maine	11-3	def. Rhode Island College, 66-62; 01/16 at Eastern Connecticut
#32	9	Brandeis	8-3	01/15 at #3 Washington U.; 01/17 at #27 Chicago
#33	8	Louisiana College	10-2	def. #36 Mississippi College, 68-53; 01/14 vs. Texas-Tyler
T#34	6	Simpson	11-3	def. Buena Vista, 81-70; 01/16 vs. Coe
T#34	6	St. Norbert	7-3	01/15 vs. Knox; 01/16 vs. Grinnell
#36	4	Mississippi College	11-3	LOST to #33 Louisiana College, 53-68; 01/16 vs. Texas-Tyler
#37	2	DePauw	11-3	01/15 at Hendrix; 01/17 at Millsaps
#38	1	Cal Lutheran	9-3	01/14 at La Verne; 01/16 vs. Occidental