Top 25 discussion

[ichouse]

Tuesday oops  Monday 10 pm and no new top 25?
haha, thats what I get for waking up on the couch and posting half a sleep 

[Mr. Ypsi]

Tuesday 10 pm and no new top 25?

It's only Monday here - where are you?

[deiscanton]

New D3Hoops.com Top 25 Women's poll is out for Week 11-- (Games through Feb. 13)

  http://www.d3hoops.com/top25/women/2010-11/week11

Poll can also be found at:

http://www.d3hoops.com/top25/index

[Pat Coleman]

Tuesday oops  Monday 10 pm and no new top 25?
haha, thats what I get for waking up on the couch and posting half a sleep 

We don't post until we get all 25 ballots. Sometimes that's at 6 p.m. ET, sometimes it's at 11. Either way, it's earlier than the coaches' poll.

[GuyFormerlyPSBBG]

I've watched Washington U play a few times via video broadcast, there is no doubt in my mind they are a good team.  A top 16 for sure.  I know they play a tough non-conference schedule.  There has to be a point where quality wins takes more of front seat over a quality losses.

Like I said they played a tough schedule, but they haven't won but one of the games.  It took overtime to beat a Rochester a team that has 5 losses (some of those losses not good ones.)  Washington U ranked 6th in a very tough region, could be dropped out.  I think they might be on the bubble at this point.  AQ's are going to hurt Wash U's chances of getting into the tournament.  I would be shocked to see them in, if the season ended right now.  #9 team in the country not getting in....

Bring the teams forward that have good wins.  I don't want to just pick on Wash U.  I think Babson's and Thomas More's schedule has been pretty weak.  Treat them all like a Boise St type of team.   (Get rewarded for beating good teams and not for having perfect records.)  That speaks for even the team i pull for...

UW-Stevens Point is my favorite to win it all at this point.

[jumphigh]

0.485  #29   21   St. Benedict   17-4   LOST to Macalester, 58-72; lost to Concordia 76-62

Others receiving votes: Bowdoin 52, Williams 51, Hanover 28, Western Connecticut 21, George Fox 12, Johns Hopkins 9, Lewis and Clark 9, Gallaudet 8, St. Benedict 7, Wheaton (Ill.) 5, UW-La Crosse 3, Chapman 1.

18-5 St. Benedict still getting votes? now 3-4 over last seven games and an sos under .500,

[deiscanton]

I've watched Washington U play a few times via video broadcast, there is no doubt in my mind they are a good team.  A top 16 for sure.  I know they play a tough non-conference schedule.  There has to be a point where quality wins takes more of front seat over a quality losses.

Like I said they played a tough schedule, but they haven't won but one of the games.  It took overtime to beat a Rochester a team that has 5 losses (some of those losses not good ones.)  Washington U ranked 6th in a very tough region, could be dropped out.  I think they might be on the bubble at this point.  AQ's are going to hurt Wash U's chances of getting into the tournament.  I would be shocked to see them in, if the season ended right now.  #9 team in the country not getting in....

Bring the teams forward that have good wins.  I don't want to just pick on Wash U.  I think Babson's and Thomas More's schedule has been pretty weak.  Treat them all like a Boise St type of team.   (Get rewarded for beating good teams and not for having perfect records.)  That speaks for even the team i pull for...

UW-Stevens Point is my favorite to win it all at this point.

Rochester's five losses:  @ Medaille (#1 East), @Wash U, @ NYU, @ Chicago, Chicago.   I disagree that any one of those five losses were bad ones.   It may be a little bit easier to win at the Coles Center now that Stefano Trompeo is coaching the Violets rather than Janice Quinn, but winning at NYU is still very difficult when it comes time for UAA season-- especially when a typical Friday night crowd at Coles is over 1,000 fans (Friday nights in the UAA are typically "Tear it Up!" nights at NYU-- in addition to the Saturday game vs Brandeis when it is held on NYU Senior Day) and the NYU pep band (which plays the fight song "Old New York University" to rev up the crowd and has Link's theme from "the Legend of Zelda" in their repertoire), cheerleaders, dance team, and mascot are at full strength.  The Brandeis women have only won at Coles Center on the NYU campus twice lifetime.   I've been known to sometimes get a little bit of a chill when I hear the NYU alma mater ("the Palisades") being played before the national anthem at Coles.

Rochester rarely sweeps the away trip at NYU and Brandeis, and the Yellowjackets were adjusting to play without their star rookie point guard Laney Ming when they were playing at NYU.   I think that with the victory over Wash U on Sunday, the Yellowjackets have turned the corner a little bit.

In the UAA, Wash U's home court advantage is legendary.  Wash U's last three UAA games are at home vs NYU, Brandeis, and Chicago.

Since the UAA was formed in the 1986-1987 season,  there have been only four times in the history of the University Athletic Association that a visiting team defeated Wash U at the Wash U Field House in St. Louis in UAA play.   Had Rochester won at Wash U earlier this season, that would have been the 5th-- putting Jim Scheible on the historic list of UAA coaches that have pulled off this feat.

In these 4 seasons, Wash U finished at 6-1 in home UAA games.   All of the other seasons had Wash U finishing at 7-0 or better at home in UAA play.  (Johns Hopkins was in the UAA up to the end of the 2000-2001 season, so there were 9 teams in the UAA up to then.)

Here are the 4 seasons that Wash U dropped a home UAA game, and the team and coach that pulled off the feat:

(1)  1990-91:   Gerri Seidl, Carnegie Mellon.  (Carnegie Mellon won UAA title that year.)

(2)  2003-04:   Janice Quinn, NYU

 Box score from Sunday, February 22, 2004 game

(3)  2004-05:   Carol Simon, Brandeis  (NCAA still only had a 50 team field with only 7 Pool C bids that year-- this had been Brandeis's best opportunity to clinch the UAA's automatic bid, but subsequent losses by Brandeis at Rochester and NYU gave Wash U the UAA's automatic bid-- the UAA only sent 1 team to the NCAAs that year.)

 Box score from Sunday, February 6, 2005 game

(4)  2005-06:  Janice Quinn, NYU.

 Box score from Friday, January 20, 2006 game

Wash U just has that home victory over Rochester in their primary criteria, but the Bears have a secondary criteria win over regionally ranked DePauw of the Great Lakes, and the Bears have a secondary criteria loss to Hope of the Great Lakes.

The secondary criteria would come into play for Wash U if they need it, but I expect Wash U to win out at home and keep the in-region winning pct high enough on the primary criteria....  Wash U picks up a second in-region win over a regionally ranked opponent if Wash U defeats Chicago on Feb. 26.  Wash U would have most likely won out at home if that happened.

As for Babson, I agree with GuyFormerlyPSBBG.   Brandeis played Babson in Babson's first game of the season-- it was the second game of the season for Brandeis, and took the Beavers to OT before losing.   Brandeis had led most of the game, with Babson not tying it up until late in regulation.  Babson has a primary criteria win over regionally ranked Western Connecticut, and secondary criteria wins over regionally ranked Roanoke and Oneonta State. (from the Trip Sports Las Vegas Hoopla.)  That NEWMAC double round-robin schedule does Babson no favors, however, in forcing Babson to play 18 conference games plus a conference tournament.

Babson's biggest strength is their starting front-court (Kathleen King, Nicki Wurdemann, Sarah Collins), where they have a height advantage over every other front court in NEWMAC.  Therefore, I expected Babson to dominate in NEWMAC-- WPI is not of the same caliber as Amherst or Williams-- and make it to the NCAAs as an undefeated team.    I can still see Babson making it to the Sweet 16 in the NCAA DIII tournament, but I don't see Babson in the Final Four.   I would make Wash U, Chicago, and Rochester my favorites to defeat Babson on a neutral floor.  

[ichouse]

My guess UAA will get 3 bids Chicago, Rochester and Wash U.

[GuyFormerlyPSBBG]

I've watched Washington U play a few times via video broadcast, there is no doubt in my mind they are a good team.  A top 16 for sure.  I know they play a tough non-conference schedule.  There has to be a point where quality wins takes more of front seat over a quality losses.

Like I said they played a tough schedule, but they haven't won but one of the games.  It took overtime to beat a Rochester a team that has 5 losses (some of those losses not good ones.)  Washington U ranked 6th in a very tough region, could be dropped out.  I think they might be on the bubble at this point.  AQ's are going to hurt Wash U's chances of getting into the tournament.  I would be shocked to see them in, if the season ended right now.  #9 team in the country not getting in....

Bring the teams forward that have good wins.  I don't want to just pick on Wash U.  I think Babson's and Thomas More's schedule has been pretty weak.  Treat them all like a Boise St type of team.   (Get rewarded for beating good teams and not for having perfect records.)  That speaks for even the team i pull for...

UW-Stevens Point is my favorite to win it all at this point.

Rochester's five losses:  @ Medaille (#1 East), @Wash U, @ NYU, @ Chicago, Chicago.   I disagree that any one of those five losses were bad ones.   It may be a little bit easier to win at the Coles Center now that Stefano Trompeo is coaching the Violets rather than Janice Quinn, but winning at NYU is still very difficult when it comes time for UAA season-- especially when a typical Friday night crowd at Coles is over 1,000 fans (Friday nights in the UAA are typically "Tear it Up!" nights at NYU-- in addition to the Saturday game vs Brandeis when it is held on NYU Senior Day) and the NYU pep band (which plays the fight song "Old New York University" to rev up the crowd and has Link's theme from "the Legend of Zelda" in their repertoire), cheerleaders, dance team, and mascot are at full strength.  The Brandeis women have only won at Coles Center on the NYU campus twice lifetime.   I've been known to sometimes get a little bit of a chill when I hear the NYU alma mater ("the Palisades") being played before the national anthem at Coles.

What I meant about bad losses were the

87-59 L at Chicago
82-69 L at NYU

Yeah you can argue they were on the road in a tough conference, and I get that.  
I just really doubt that Wash U will get in unless they get the AQ

Do you think they will still be ranked after this weeks regional rankings?  There are 3 conferences not in the top 6 that still get AQ's

[deiscanton]

I've watched Washington U play a few times via video broadcast, there is no doubt in my mind they are a good team.  A top 16 for sure.  I know they play a tough non-conference schedule.  There has to be a point where quality wins takes more of front seat over a quality losses.

Like I said they played a tough schedule, but they haven't won but one of the games.  It took overtime to beat a Rochester a team that has 5 losses (some of those losses not good ones.)  Washington U ranked 6th in a very tough region, could be dropped out.  I think they might be on the bubble at this point.  AQ's are going to hurt Wash U's chances of getting into the tournament.  I would be shocked to see them in, if the season ended right now.  #9 team in the country not getting in....

Bring the teams forward that have good wins.  I don't want to just pick on Wash U.  I think Babson's and Thomas More's schedule has been pretty weak.  Treat them all like a Boise St type of team.   (Get rewarded for beating good teams and not for having perfect records.)  That speaks for even the team i pull for...

UW-Stevens Point is my favorite to win it all at this point.

Rochester's five losses:  @ Medaille (#1 East), @Wash U, @ NYU, @ Chicago, Chicago.   I disagree that any one of those five losses were bad ones.   It may be a little bit easier to win at the Coles Center now that Stefano Trompeo is coaching the Violets rather than Janice Quinn, but winning at NYU is still very difficult when it comes time for UAA season-- especially when a typical Friday night crowd at Coles is over 1,000 fans (Friday nights in the UAA are typically "Tear it Up!" nights at NYU-- in addition to the Saturday game vs Brandeis when it is held on NYU Senior Day) and the NYU pep band (which plays the fight song "Old New York University" to rev up the crowd and has Link's theme from "the Legend of Zelda" in their repertoire), cheerleaders, dance team, and mascot are at full strength.  The Brandeis women have only won at Coles Center on the NYU campus twice lifetime.   I've been known to sometimes get a little bit of a chill when I hear the NYU alma mater ("the Palisades") being played before the national anthem at Coles.

What I meant about bad losses were the

87-59 L at Chicago
82-69 L at NYU

Yeah you can argue they were on the road in a tough conference, and I get that.  
I just really doubt that Wash U will get in unless they get the AQ

Do you think they will still be ranked after this weeks regional rankings?  There are 3 conferences not in the top 6 that still get AQ's

The NCAA really does not concern themselves with the margin of victory/defeat when they think about good wins/bad losses.   They measure the in-region records of the opponents at the time that the game is played.  I consider a bad loss as losing to a team that only has 1 or 2 in-region victories in their record, for instance.  A regionally ranked team should be able to defeat a 2-18 team handily, for instance-- so losing to that 2-18 team would be a bad loss.

When following conference tournaments, you really only pay attention to the conference tournaments that have teams in them that are regionally ranked.   In those tournaments, if a team that is not regionally ranked going in wins their league tournament by defeating the regionally ranked opponents in that conference, then Pool C bids would be taken away because those regionally ranked opponents would need Pool Cs.  For the Central Region, that would mean paying attention to the CCIW and the WIAC tournaments on the women's side right now, because the top 4 teams in the Central currently come from the CCIW and WIAC conferences.   The other Central Region conferences are currently considered as 1 bid leagues.

I admit that if Wash U is not in the top 6 in the Central Region today, I will be concerned.  Teams not listed in the regional rankings typically find it very hard to get a Pool C, even if their resume is stellar-- (see Chicago from 2008-2009 season --4th place finish in UAA-- not in regional rankings-- did not get Pool C, while Brandeis was in fifth place in UAA-- in Northeast Regional Rankings-- got Pool C and advanced to Elite Eight.  I thought that the 2008-2009 version of the UAA deserved five teams in the NCAAs on the women's side, but I only got four)  Chicago currently has a 2 game lead over Wash U in the UAA standings with 3 left to play.  I think that Chicago will get the AQ from the UAA-- Chicago has Brandeis and NYU at the Ratner Center in Chicago this weekend and two victories this weekend gives Chicago the AQ-- Chicago would be at least 2 games up with 1 to play if the Maroons sweep Brandeis and NYU at the Ratner Center this weekend-- giving Chicago the automatic bid.

(Note:  UAA has no conference tournament-- Regular season champion gets AQ).

Realistically, I think that Wash U needs a Pool C to get in at this stage-- even two home victories by Wash U would not be enough to cut Chicago's lead down if Chicago sweeps this home weekend.

[GuyFormerlyPSBBG]

The team I had ranked behind Wash U (Wheaton ILL) also lost this week, but I don't think the SOS for Wisconsin Luthern has enough to jump into #6 spot, at least based on my rankings.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Week 3 Regional Rankings are out: http://www.d3blogs.com/d3hoops/2011/02/16/ncaa-2011-regional-rankings-week-3/

[Darryl Nester]

How They Fared--Midweek Report

No SOS numbers added yet, but I think I'll be able to edit them in later today, after I get all the kinks worked out.
(SOS added 11:45am.)
(IWU's SOS corrected 7:08pm.)

Top 25

Rank	Pts	Team	W-L	SOS	Results
#1	609	Thomas More	24-0	0.511	def. Thiel, 74-49; 02/19 vs. #15 St. Vincent
#2	600	Amherst	23-1	0.617	02/19 vs. Trinity (Conn.)
#3	582	Hope	23-1	0.505	def. Olivet, 82-43; 02/19 vs. Albion
#4	538	UW-Stevens Point	22-2	0.579	def. UW-Platteville, 75-54; 02/19 at #36 UW-La Crosse
#5	505	Babson	24-0	0.490	def. Clark, 79-48; 02/19 at Mount Holyoke
#6	495	Kean	22-3	0.602	def. Richard Stockton, 80-64
#7	421	Illinois Wesleyan	18-4	0.620	02/17 at North Central (Ill.); 02/19 vs. North Park
#8	420	Chicago	19-3	0.535	02/18 vs. Brandeis; 02/20 vs. New York University
#9	405	Washington U.	18-4	0.535	02/18 vs. New York University; 02/20 vs. Brandeis
#10	387	Greensboro	23-0	0.503	02/18 at Shenandoah; 02/19 at #13 Christopher Newport
#11	374	Denison	24-0	0.476	def. Wittenberg, 62-60; 02/19 vs. Oberlin
#12	355	DePauw	20-3	0.497	02/18 at Birmingham-Southern; 02/20 at Rhodes
#13	287	Christopher Newport	20-3	0.524	02/18 vs. Methodist; 02/19 vs. #10 Greensboro
#14	263	Louisiana College	21-1	0.498	def. University of the Ozarks, 81-56; 02/17 at East Texas Baptist
#15	232	St. Vincent	22-2	0.511	def. Grove City, 58-46; 02/19 at #1 Thomas More
#16	226	Rochester	17-5	0.575	02/18 at Carnegie Mellon; 02/20 at Case Western Reserve
#17	220	Lebanon Valley	22-2	0.550	def. Elizabethtown, 62-53; 02/19 vs. Alvernia
#18	219	St. Norbert	20-2	0.497	02/19 vs. Lawrence
#19	195	Mount Union	21-3	0.517	def. Baldwin-Wallace, 67-60; 02/19 vs. Heidelberg
#20	153	Medaille	21-2	0.471	def. D'Youville, 64-55; 02/19 at La Roche
#21	119	William Paterson	22-3	0.573	def. Ramapo, 60-55; def. Ramapo, 52-43
#22	105	UW-Whitewater	19-5	0.590	def. UW-Oshkosh, 65-58; 02/19 vs. UW-Superior
#23	83	Calvin	20-4	0.502	def. Alma, 74-48; 02/19 at Trine
#24	69	Mount St. Mary	22-2	0.554	def. SUNY-Purchase, 73-28; 02/19 vs. St. Joseph's (L.I.)
#25	57	Coe	21-3	0.530	def. Luther, 60-55; 02/19 vs. Dubuque

Others receiving votes

Rank	Pts	Team	W-L	SOS	Results
#26	52	Bowdoin	20-4	0.597	02/19 vs. Bates
#27	51	Williams	20-4	0.611	02/19 vs. Tufts
#28	28	Hanover	22-1	0.475	def. Rose-Hulman, 66-43; 02/19 vs. Anderson
#29	21	Western Connecticut	20-3	0.559	def. Eastern Connecticut, 74-55; 02/19 at Mass-Boston
#30	12	George Fox	18-5	0.522	02/18 at Linfield; 02/19 vs. Puget Sound
T#31	9	Johns Hopkins	20-4	0.533	def. Franklin and Marshall, 63-57
T#31	9	Lewis and Clark	18-5	0.526	02/18 vs. Puget Sound; 02/19 at Willamette
#33	8	Gallaudet	21-1	0.485	def. St. Elizabeth, 76-59; 02/17 at Penn State-Abington; 02/19 vs. Keuka; 02/20 vs. Wells
#34	7	St. Benedict	18-5	0.490	def. St. Mary's (Minn.), 83-56; 02/19 at St. Thomas
#35	5	Wheaton (Ill.)	17-6	0.538	def. Millikin, 87-51; 02/19 vs. Elmhurst
#36	3	UW-La Crosse	18-5	0.558	def. UW-River Falls, 64-58; 02/19 vs. #4 UW-Stevens Point
#37	1	Chapman	20-4	0.524	02/17 at Biola

[David Collinge]

Wow, 24-0 so far this week. 

[gadk]

How They Fared--Midweek Report

No SOS numbers added yet, but I think I'll be able to edit them in later today, after I get all the kinks worked out.
(SOS added 11:45am.)

Nice Job Darryl!  it is nice to see all the info in one place