Top 25 discussion

[bearsfan]

I've watched Washington U play a few times via video broadcast, there is no doubt in my mind they are a good team.  A top 16 for sure.  I know they play a tough non-conference schedule.  There has to be a point where quality wins takes more of front seat over a quality losses.

Like I said they played a tough schedule, but they haven't won but one of the games.  It took overtime to beat a Rochester a team that has 5 losses (some of those losses not good ones.)  Washington U ranked 6th in a very tough region, could be dropped out.  I think they might be on the bubble at this point.  AQ's are going to hurt Wash U's chances of getting into the tournament.  I would be shocked to see them in, if the season ended right now.  #9 team in the country not getting in....

Bring the teams forward that have good wins.  I don't want to just pick on Wash U.  I think Babson's and Thomas More's schedule has been pretty weak.  Treat them all like a Boise St type of team.   (Get rewarded for beating good teams and not for having perfect records.)  That speaks for even the team i pull for...

UW-Stevens Point is my favorite to win it all at this point.

Rochester's five losses:  @ Medaille (#1 East), @Wash U, @ NYU, @ Chicago, Chicago.   I disagree that any one of those five losses were bad ones.   It may be a little bit easier to win at the Coles Center now that Stefano Trompeo is coaching the Violets rather than Janice Quinn, but winning at NYU is still very difficult when it comes time for UAA season-- especially when a typical Friday night crowd at Coles is over 1,000 fans (Friday nights in the UAA are typically "Tear it Up!" nights at NYU-- in addition to the Saturday game vs Brandeis when it is held on NYU Senior Day) and the NYU pep band (which plays the fight song "Old New York University" to rev up the crowd and has Link's theme from "the Legend of Zelda" in their repertoire), cheerleaders, dance team, and mascot are at full strength.  The Brandeis women have only won at Coles Center on the NYU campus twice lifetime.   I've been known to sometimes get a little bit of a chill when I hear the NYU alma mater ("the Palisades") being played before the national anthem at Coles.

What I meant about bad losses were the

87-59 L at Chicago
82-69 L at NYU

Yeah you can argue they were on the road in a tough conference, and I get that.  
I just really doubt that Wash U will get in unless they get the AQ

Do you think they will still be ranked after this weeks regional rankings?  There are 3 conferences not in the top 6 that still get AQ's

It may be true that Wash U doesn't get in but I think that is a black eye on the D3 process if so.

Yes, they are 1-3 vs regionally ranked teams, but look at the losses.
5 point loss to IWU on a neutral court in which they were leading until a late 3 game IWU the lead, 2 point loss to Hope on a neutral court where the game was back and forth the entire time and tied in the late stages, 2 point loss to Chicago on the road in a tightly contested game against conference travel partners (usually a rivalry game), and a 10 point loss (late first half run was the difference) to Rochester on the road in a facility that has been extremely tough to win at for the Bears lately.

For perspective, the Bears have not won at Rochester any of the last three years but were still good enough to make the National Championship.

If a team with 4 losses with all being to highly ranked regional teams get excluded from the tournament in favor of teams with 6 or more losses with some being to non-ranked opponents, then there is a definite flaw in the system and all teams should start playing cupcake schedules just to get into the tournament. If D3 is to continue moving forward as a competitive organization, it has to start rewarding teams that play tough schedules and take on challenging games. They have won the games they are supposed to win and played tough in the games that were tough competitions (no blowouts).

For example, UW-Whitewater has a loss at UW-River Falls who is 15-8 and UW-LaCrosse has losses at UW-Eau Claire who is 14-10. Not saying these teams should not get in as well, but they both have 5 loses (2 more than Wash U) in region and at least one was to a team that they should not have lost to. Wisconsin Lutheran has 3 regional losses (same as Wash U) but all to teams not regionally ranked (Millikin 15-8, Concordia (Wis) 16-8, and Concordia (Ill) 9-15). To me, those are all bad losses and they have a weaker SOS. They have as many wins vs regionally ranked teams as Wash U but mostly because they have only played one team. Not saying they shouldn't get in either, but not seeing based on the numbers why Wash U should be ranked below these teams.

The way this is working is the opposite of how it should. Yes, you should need to win against top teams, but looking at other tournament selection, losing to low teams is what usually gets teams left out and losing to top teams usually doesn't hurt you as much. D3 works the opposite, the loses to bad teams are a much lower factor in selection than losses to good teams. Look at the D1 men and see how many times they will say, "This team has some good wins, but they have 2 loses to low RPI teams and that is why they got left out" In D3, the message is "This team has 2 bad losses, but doesn't have as many losses against top teams as this other team with no bad losses so that's why they are getting in." 

[Hoosier Titan]

Wait a second...how did Illinois Wesleyan's SOS go from 0.615 to 0.459 in one week?

EDIT:  Just checked the PDF for the Central region generated on 2/15.  IWU's SOS is 0.620.  Looks like the 0.459 is the value for Illinois College, on the line below.

[Ralph Turner]

How They Fared--Midweek Report

No SOS numbers added yet, but I think I'll be able to edit them in later today, after I get all the kinks worked out.
(SOS added 11:45am.)

Nice Job Darryl!  it is nice to see all the info in one place

+1 for the suggestion!   

[Darryl Nester]

Wait a second...how did Illinois Wesleyan's SOS go from 0.615 to 0.459 in one week?

EDIT:  Just checked the PDF for the Central region generated on 2/15.  IWU's SOS is 0.620.  Looks like the 0.459 is the value for Illinois College, on the line below.

Oops.  I had to set up a table to translate between the d3hoops.com school names and those used in the NCAA's report (e.g., "Cortland State" vs. "SUNY Cortland"), and I obviously had that one wrong.  If anyone else spots any similar issues, please let me know.

[GuyFormerlyPSBBG]

It may be true that Wash U doesn't get in but I think that is a black eye on the D3 process if so.

I agree with that.  I  think they should get in, but if they don't it will be exactly as you say...

[Ralph Turner]

jaybird44 makes an interesting point about how vulnerable WashU Lady Bears are to failing to get a Pool C bid.

Honestly, how many power conferences are there in the Women's side of D3?

Not just 2-3 teams at the top that have won National Championships, but consisitently strong thru the entire conference...

For example Conference A's #5 of 8 beats Conference B's #6/7 of 10, or Conference B's #3/4 of 10.

[ronk]

jaybird44 makes an interesting point about how vulnerable WashU Lady Bears are to failing to get a Pool C bid.

Honestly, how many power conferences are there in the Women's side of D3?

Not just 2-3 teams at the top that have won National Championships, but consisitently strong thru the entire conference...For example Conference A's #5 of 8 beats Conference B's #6/7 of 10, or Conference B's #3/4 of 10.

  Is this our definition of a power conference, and, if so, who satisfies the criteria?

[Ralph Turner]

jaybird44 makes an interesting point about how vulnerable WashU Lady Bears are to failing to get a Pool C bid.

Honestly, how many power conferences are there in the Women's side of D3?

Not just 2-3 teams at the top that have won National Championships, but consistently strong thru the entire conference...For example Conference A's #5 of 8 beats Conference B's #6/7 of 10, or Conference B's #3/4 of 10.

 Is this our definition of a power conference, and, if so, who satisfies the criteria?

Thanks ronk.

I think that is the way that we look at Football and Men's Basketball.

Let me try to list my "power conferences" and a relative power index (0-100).

1)   WIAC 92
2)   NESCAC 79
3)   MIAC  76
4)   NWC   74
5)   UAA    73 (and down this year)
6)   CCIW  70
7)   OAC   66
8)   ODAC  63
9)   IIAC   60
10) ASC   58

I have the ASC ranked that low only because it is a 15-team conference.  The problem is that there are 8-9 teams that are really strong.  The isolation of the conference brings the OWP back to .500 and prevents the high end OWP's that we see in other conferences.

[ronk]

  I could offer # of NCAA tourney wins as a measure for getting Pool C consideration as a power conference, although it doesn't say anything about the strength of the bottom half of a conference. Looking for a way to get the Landmark into your top 10, but I haven't found a link for NCAA D3 tourney results since 81-82(the origin of the women's game, according to the NCAA.
  Where did the relative power index come from?
  Next level up - Could you rank by region instead of by conference?

[Ralph Turner]

The relative power index was my own creation as to my opinion as to how mcuh separation there was in the middle of that list.

Here is Massey (non-BCS) for D-III.

http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cbw&yr=2011&sub=NCAA%20III&mid=1

[Ralph Turner]

I see the strengths by regions as follows.

Central  (WIAC, CCIW, Wash U)
West     (MIAC, NWC, IIAC)
Northeast  (NESCAC, LEC, Brandeis)
Great Lakes  (MIAA, OAC, "Thomas More", "DePauw")
South     (ASC, ODAC, "Greensboro/CNU")
Mid-Atlantic  (Commonwealth, Freedom, LAND)
Atlantic (NJAC, LAND)
East   (UAA)


Revision--Ronk makes a good point about the Mid-Atlantic portion of the LAND being the source of the strength of the conference.  They get moved up.  The reason I have kept the Mid-Atlantic in that position is that the weaker conferences pull the region down.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Ralph, I would say that any region having DePauw at number SIX has got to be stronger than #4.

Or else the regional rankings are really suspect?

(I'd put the Central and Great Lakes at the top two (pick your order).

[ronk]

I'd move most of the Landmark to the Mid-Atlantic from the Atlantic(Scranton,Juniata,Moravian,Susquehanna,Drew). That should boost the Mid-Atlantic. I'd say the West is overrated; can't believe that Massey has the MIAC with 7 schools ranked higher than Juniata, Scranton, and Moravian.

[GuyFormerlyPSBBG]

I'd move most of the Landmark to the Mid-Atlantic from the Atlantic(Scranton,Juniata,Moravian,Susquehanna,Drew). That should boost the Mid-Atlantic. I'd say the West is overrated; can't believe that Massey has the MIAC with 7 schools ranked higher than Juniata, Scranton, and Moravian.

West is probably overrraterd but there are teams listed in the west that are actually in IA and MN, which is actually more Central. I guess the west is benefiting from those locations..

I see the strengths by regions as follows.
South     (ASC, ODAC, "Greensboro/CNU")

I know other teams were listed instead of their conference but this really funny.  I think the strength is backwards.  "Greensboro/CNU" i stronger than the ODAC..

[Ralph Turner]

I'd move most of the Landmark to the Mid-Atlantic from the Atlantic  (Scranton, Juniata, Moravian, Susquehanna, Drew). That should boost the Mid-Atlantic. I'd say the West is overrated; can't believe that Massey has the MIAC with 7 schools ranked higher than Juniata, Scranton, and Moravian.

IMHO, Juniata, Scranton and Moravian are the Big 3 among some real midgets in that part of the country.

The same can be said for the Pres AC and Thomas More.  

As for DePauw, there is a real drop-off in what used to be a strong SCAC.  The NCAC is getting a real "Mama Tiger" who will claw her way thru the conference with little resistance.

The same thing for the USA South.  I cannot put two teams above a whole conference.  I think that head-to-head that the ODAC #1-5/#7-11) beats the USASouth #1-10.