Top 25 discussion

[gordonmann]

Just wait until next week's poll. The voters will get to process results from Lewis & Clark/George Fox (which is tonight), Chicago/Wash U, McMurry/Louisiana College, William Paterson/Richard Stockton and Hope/Calvin.

And those are just the ones I noticed in a cursory review of the schedule.

[Pat Coleman]

That L&C-George Fox game is at the five-minute mark, all tied up.

Video: http://www.ustream.tv/channel/women-s-soccer-2011

[Darryl Nester]

How They Fared (Complete)

(Note -- I deleted the interim report from Thursday morning, since there had been no posts since then.)

Top 25

Rank	Pts	Team	W-L	Results
#1	619	Amherst	12-0	def. Wesleyan, 76-39; def. Connecticut College, 93-42
#2	598	Chicago	11-0	def. Bethany Lutheran, 67-46; def. #8 Washington U., 65-62
#3	578	George Fox	13-0	def. #11 Lewis and Clark, 68-63; def. Pacific, 65-55
#4	541	Calvin	13-0	def. Kalamazoo, 81-29; def. #14 Hope, 72-59
#5	516	Rochester	11-0	def. Emory, 76-64
#6	504	William Paterson	14-0	def. Montclair State, 62-61; def. T#41 Richard Stockton, 88-69
#7	442	DePauw	11-1	def. Allegheny, 75-59; def. Hiram, 71-32
#8	421	Washington U.	10-2	LOST to #2 Chicago, 62-65
#9	406	UW-Stevens Point	12-2	LOST at #19 UW-River Falls, 63-67; def. #24 UW-Eau Claire, 64-60
#10	388	Muhlenberg	11-0	def. Dickinson, 87-38; def. McDaniel, 77-64
#11	372	Lewis and Clark	12-1	LOST to #3 George Fox, 63-68; def. Linfield, 57-46
#12	343	Williams	12-1	def. University of New England, 71-49; LOST to Tufts, 40-63; def. Bates, 71-40
#13	330	Franklin	13-0	def. Transylvania, 67-57; def. Anderson, 66-40
#14	279	Hope	13-2	def. Olivet, 66-52; LOST at #4 Calvin, 59-72
#15	237	Juniata	13-1	def. Merchant Marine, 67-46; def. Drew, 63-54
#16	223	Mount Union	12-1	def. Marietta, 88-60; def. #37 Ohio Northern, 85-71
#17	220	Lebanon Valley	11-2	LOST to Franklin and Marshall, 41-48; def. Immaculata, 69-48
#18	213	Mary Washington	12-0	def. Salisbury, 70-37; def. York (Pa.), 59-42
#19	202	UW-River Falls	12-2	def. #9 UW-Stevens Point, 67-63; LOST at T#39 UW-Whitewater, 53-64
#20	163	Piedmont	12-0	def. Agnes Scott, 78-62; def. Spelman, 86-61
#21	71	Greensboro	8-1	def. Peace, 71-56; def. North Carolina Wesleyan, 76-55; def. Meredith, 77-54
#22	64	Babson	10-2	def. Coast Guard, 79-34; def. Springfield, 61-38
#23	59	Colby	9-1	def. Bates, 74-57; def. Wentworth, 72-39; def. Hamilton, 65-54
#24	44	UW-Eau Claire	12-3	def. UW-Stout, 77-43; LOST at #9 UW-Stevens Point, 60-64
#25	40	Carthage	11-2	def. North Central (Ill.), 72-48; def. Millikin, 66-49

Others receiving votes

Rank	Pts	Team	W-L	Results
#26	35	Louisiana College	10-2	def. Hardin-Simmons, 80-68; def. T#27 McMurry, 81-72
T#27	34	Concordia-Austin	9-2	LOST at Texas-Dallas, 47-52; def. University of the Ozarks, 74-59
T#27	34	McMurry	8-4	LOST at Mississippi College, 50-51; LOST at #26 Louisiana College, 72-81
#29	32	St. Thomas	10-1	def. St. Benedict, 69-40; def. St. Catherine, 91-47; def. Augsburg, 49-41
#30	27	St. Vincent	10-3	LOST to Waynesburg, 53-59; def. Washington and Jefferson, 72-59
T#31	22	Centre	11-1	def. Sewanee, 68-43
T#31	22	Kean	13-2	def. Rowan, 73-68; def. Montclair State, 66-64
#33	13	Ithaca	10-2	def. St. John Fisher, 82-50; def. Nazareth, 69-48
T#34	7	Otterbein	11-3	LOST at Capital, 62-73; def. Muskingum, 71-57
T#34	7	Simpson	10-4	LOST at Coe, 72-75; def. Dubuque, 82-71
#36	5	Fitchburg State	11-1	def. Anna Maria, 75-58; LOST to Bridgewater State, 59-78
#37	4	Ohio Northern	11-3	def. Heidelberg, 75-53; LOST at #16 Mount Union, 71-85
#38	3	Southern Maine	10-3	def. Husson, 82-60; def. Keene State, 65-58
T#39	2	UW-La Crosse	11-3	def. UW-Platteville, 58-46; def. UW-Oshkosh, 63-54
T#39	2	UW-Whitewater	10-4	def. Edgewood, 66-49; def. #19 UW-River Falls, 64-53
T#41	1	Millsaps	12-2	def. Rhodes, 50-47; def. Birmingham-Southern, 79-76; def. Oglethorpe, 58-52
T#41	1	New England College	11-1	LOST at Husson, 56-60; def. Maine Maritime, 53-38
T#41	1	Richard Stockton	8-3	LOST to TCNJ, 44-56; LOST at #6 William Paterson, 69-88

[GuyFormerlyPSBBG]

I've been busy so I haven't been able to keep the undefeated updates like I have wanted too.

I see Piedmont is now ahead of Greensboro. (I believe that is the right call.)  The one thing I notice about Greensboro and it is a trend that occurred last year too....

3Pt shooting %..  The team's % got lower and lower as the season went along (month to month.)  I know you can't spend much time in practice just shooting 3's but to continue to shoot them and miss is not a good sign.  Extra time in practice/working out might help a bit.  Getting into the weight room to help fight fatigue or getting extra shots up before/after practice will go a long way.

We all know they are going to go through their All-American Duncan.  I would be willing to stack the paint on her.  Have a player behind her and rotate a player in front of her ball side every time. Rotating double team.  I just don't think there are many teams in the conference that can keep up with the pace for the full 40 minutes.  I will take my chances though.  38% inside the line and 28% outside the line. 

[ronk]

I've been busy so I haven't been able to keep the undefeated updates like I have wanted too.

I see Piedmont is now ahead of Greensboro. (I believe that is the right call.)  The one thing I notice about Greensboro and it is a trend that occurred last year too....

3Pt shooting %..  The team's % got lower and lower as the season went along (month to month.)  I know you can't spend much time in practice just shooting 3's but to continue to shoot them and miss is not a good sign.  Extra time in practice/working out might help a bit.  Getting into the weight room to help fight fatigue or getting extra shots up before/after practice will go a long way.

We all know they are going to go through their All-American Duncan.  I would be willing to stack the paint on her.  Have a player behind her and rotate a player in front of her ball side every time. Rotating double team.  I just don't think there are many teams in the conference that can keep up with the pace for the full 40 minutes.  I will take my chances though.  38% inside the line and 28% outside the line.

[/b]
  You get more points outside the line @ 28% than inside the line @ 38%, if that was your point.

[7express]

What happened to those 3 votes USM got last week??  Granted, Husson is terrible, but it's weird to see a team with 3 votes 1 week, go 2-0 the following week, and see that same team without any votes in that next week's poll.

[GuyFormerlyPSBBG]

I've been busy so I haven't been able to keep the undefeated updates like I have wanted too.

I see Piedmont is now ahead of Greensboro. (I believe that is the right call.)  The one thing I notice about Greensboro and it is a trend that occurred last year too....

3Pt shooting %..  The team's % got lower and lower as the season went along (month to month.)  I know you can't spend much time in practice just shooting 3's but to continue to shoot them and miss is not a good sign.  Extra time in practice/working out might help a bit.  Getting into the weight room to help fight fatigue or getting extra shots up before/after practice will go a long way.

We all know they are going to go through their All-American Duncan.  I would be willing to stack the paint on her.  Have a player behind her and rotate a player in front of her ball side every time. Rotating double team.  I just don't think there are many teams in the conference that can keep up with the pace for the full 40 minutes.  I will take my chances though.  38% inside the line and 28% outside the line.

[/b]
  You get more points outside the line @ 28% than inside the line @ 38%, if that was your point.

They are only hitting 24%, I meant to but that down.

They are making 7.6 points per 10 shots at 2pt shots and 7.2 at 3pt shots.  They have gone from 28% to 24% to 20% (At least they are shooting fewer per game)

For me at least anything below 30% is an eye opener.

[Darryl Nester]

How They Fared (So Far)

Top 25

Rank	Pts	Team	W-L	Results
#1	619	Amherst	13-0	def. Farmingdale State, 61-32; 01/13 vs. Hamilton
#2	598	Chicago	12-0	def. Marian, 63-52; 01/13 at Carnegie Mellon; 01/15 at Case Western Reserve
#3	578	George Fox	13-0	01/13 vs. Willamette; 01/14 vs. Puget Sound
#4	545	Calvin	14-0	def. Alma, 86-44; 01/14 at Rochester (Mich.)
#5	516	Rochester	12-0	def. St. John Fisher, 76-66; 01/13 at Brandeis; 01/15 at New York University
#6	510	William Paterson	15-0	def. Rutgers-Newark, 59-54; 01/14 at #30 Kean
#7	460	DePauw	12-1	def. Kenyon, 69-60; 01/14 vs. Wooster
#8	416	Washington U.	10-2	01/13 at Case Western Reserve; 01/15 at Carnegie Mellon
#9	406	Muhlenberg	11-0	01/12 at Franklin and Marshall; 01/14 vs. Gettysburg
#10	393	Lewis and Clark	12-1	01/13 at Pacific Lutheran; 01/14 vs. Willamette
#11	361	UW-Stevens Point	13-2	def. UW-Stout, 73-46; 01/14 at #37 UW-La Crosse
#12	317	Mount Union	13-1	def. Baldwin-Wallace, 53-45; 01/14 at Heidelberg
#13	291	Franklin	14-0	def. Mount St. Joseph, 75-36; 01/14 vs. Manchester
#14	287	Hope	13-2	01/14 at Adrian
#15	264	Juniata	13-1	01/13 at Goucher; 01/14 at Catholic
#16	228	Mary Washington	14-0	def. Lehman, 81-41; def. St. Mary's (Md.), 67-37; 01/14 vs. Wesley
#17	216	UW-River Falls	13-2	def. #37 UW-La Crosse, 56-47; 01/14 vs. #25 UW-Eau Claire
#18	213	Williams	13-1	def. Maine-Presque Isle, 68-35; 01/13 at Wesleyan; 01/14 at Connecticut College
#19	206	Piedmont	12-1	LOST at LaGrange, 76-78; 01/15 at Salem
#20	144	Greensboro	8-2	LOST at Ferrum, 69-81; 01/14 vs. Christopher Newport
#21	96	Babson	11-2	def. MIT, 70-41; 01/14 at Smith
#22	92	Colby	9-1	01/13 at Bates; 01/14 at #29 Tufts
#23	79	Carthage	12-2	def. North Park, 55-33; 01/14 at #32 Illinois Wesleyan
#24	76	Lebanon Valley	12-2	def. Lycoming, 57-47; 01/14 at Alvernia
#25	44	UW-Eau Claire	13-3	def. UW-Oshkosh, 52-47; 01/14 at #17 UW-River Falls

Others receiving votes

Rank	Pts	Team	W-L	Results
#26	32	St. Thomas	11-1	def. Carleton, 68-48; 01/14 at Concordia-Moorhead
#27	27	Louisiana College	10-2	01/12 at East Texas Baptist; 01/14 at Centenary (La.)
#28	24	Centre	11-1	01/13 at Colorado College; 01/15 at Hendrix
#29	22	Tufts	11-2	01/13 vs. Bowdoin; 01/14 vs. #22 Colby
#30	16	Kean	14-2	def. TCNJ, 60-55; 01/14 vs. #6 William Paterson
#31	12	Ithaca	10-2	01/13 at Hartwick; 01/14 at Stevens
#32	7	Illinois Wesleyan	10-4	def. Augustana, 65-44; 01/14 vs. #23 Carthage
#33	6	Concordia-Austin	10-2	def. Mary Hardin-Baylor, 64-51; 01/12 vs. Texas Lutheran; 01/14 vs. Schreiner
T#34	5	Coe	11-4	def. Luther, 82-67; 01/14 vs. Buena Vista
T#34	5	Texas-Dallas	13-1	def. University of the Ozarks, 62-49; 01/12 vs. Texas-Tyler; 01/14 vs. LeTourneau
T#34	5	Waynesburg	10-3	LOST at #38 Thomas More, 58-74; 01/14 vs. Grove City
#37	4	UW-La Crosse	11-4	LOST to #17 UW-River Falls, 47-56; 01/14 vs. #11 UW-Stevens Point
#38	2	Thomas More	11-3	def. T#34 Waynesburg, 74-58; 01/14 at St. Vincent
T#39	1	Elmhurst	12-2	def. North Central (Ill.), 64-52; 01/14 vs. Augustana
T#39	1	Messiah	11-3	def. Albright, 80-36; 01/14 vs. Widener
T#39	1	Millsaps	12-2	01/13 at Austin; 01/15 at University of Dallas

[gordonmann]

What happened to those 3 votes USM got last week??  Granted, Husson is terrible, but it's weird to see a team with 3 votes 1 week, go 2-0 the following week, and see that same team without any votes in that next week's poll.

This isn't uncommon. Teams lose votes and drop in the poll all the time, even when they win.  Voters may re-evaluate each team on their ballot every week and decide that someone else is stronger based on results versus common opponents, someone else winning more impressive games, "good wins" aren't as good as thought, etc. You usually can't tell why one team moved by looking just at that team in isolation.

[Pat Coleman]

To echo that, especially when a team only has a few votes to begin with, they're basically drawing support from one or two voters. If someone has a big win that forces its way onto ballots, that can knock a lot of points off of those teams.

[sunny]

To echo that, especially when a team only has a few votes to begin with, they're basically drawing support from one or two voters. If someone has a big win that forces its way onto ballots, that can knock a lot of points off of those teams.

My big wonder wasn't what happened to USM, but what happened to Mount Union, who gained an eye-popping 94 points with an expected win over Marietta and a solid home win over Ohio Northern, while Franklin lost 39 points by staying undefeated. Mount Union went from a 107-point deficit behind Franklin to a 26-point advantage.  A 133-point swing by two teams who didn't lose a game nor beat a team in front of them in the top 25 is pretty unusual at this stage in the season.

[Pat Coleman]

Good question, but I know Franklin is already at my personal ceiling -- they would have to win a couple playoff games to get higher on my own ballot.

[Wydown Blvd.]

Echoing Pat Coleman a bit.

My guess would be that Mount Union (esp bc of their recent post-season successes) has an edge in the program prestige/history factor over a team like Franklin. When a couple other historically-good/tournament-bound teams ahead of them lost (Hope and Williams for example), voters preferred moving up MU than Franklin.

The voters must navigate between the historically-good teams and the ups and downs of their seasons, and teams that might have an excellent record, but are more unknown and unproven. In D1 they talk about power conferences and mid-majors (apologize for a D1 reference  )... Basically, the same thing is going on D3 style.

[sunny]

Good question, but I know Franklin is already at my personal ceiling -- they would have to win a couple playoff games to get higher on my own ballot.

Understood, but I'm not sure what Mount Union did to get such a BIG boost last week. It seemed sort of out of whack with the rest of the poll. That was the more eye-catching thing to me - I just threw Franklin in as a point of comparison. No doubt it was a statistical anomaly brought about by circumstances on multiple ballots, but it is pretty odd. (Obviously, Franklin's loss today will deservedly drop them).

[Mr. Ypsi]

IWU beat #23 Carthage with a 3-pointer w/ 2 seconds left, 70-69.  Since their losses are all to VERY good teams (2 road, 1 neutral, 1 home), and with their pedigree from recent seasons, I'm wondering if they will be the first 4-loss team to crack the Top 25 this season.