Top 25 discussion

[Rofrog]

Please voters justify this how the hell does Scranton gain only 30 points over 3 weeks after beating the two teams that beat them early in the season?30 points but after 3 losses early in the season  you take 371 pts off them?

[deiscanton]

There is a possibility that no UAA women's basketball team will be in the top 25  this week when the D3hoops.com poll comes out this evening.  The WBCA may still keep Chicago ranked on Tuesday, however.  We will see what happens.

As former NYU women's basketball head coach Janice Quinn said about 20 years ago-- the NCAA regional rankings are the ones that count.  Starting on Wednesday, we will start to get a rough outlook of the potential field of 64.

Chicago remained in the D3hoops.com Top 25 poll at #24 with 78 points.  The challenge now is if any of the UAA co-leaders can go 5-0 through the rest of the UAA schedule.  Only 2 of the co-leaders will be able to accomplish this feat, as RV UAA co-leading teams Emory and NYU play each other on Friday in Atlanta.  Chicago is the other co-leader and has a rematch with CWRU on Sunday in Chicago.

[Ron Boerger]

Please voters justify this how the hell does Scranton gain only 30 points over 3 weeks after beating the two teams that beat them early in the season?30 points but after 3 losses early in the season  you take 371 pts off them?

[disclaimer - not a voter]

Early season losses always cost more in any poll, and let's face it, beating Catholic (while a nice win) and .500 Elizabethtown are simply expected results given that Scranton is ranked and neither of them are.  The 1-point win at Susquehanna also didn't turn anyone's heads.  Losing to a team like Elizabethtown anytime during the season isn't a good look, and there are a lot of other 3-loss teams that don't have such a result on the resume. 

Let's have a look at the teams above you, who should voters rank Scranton above?

15.  Oglethorpe (23-1)?   One loss all season, early to 17-4 Emory & Henry.
14.  Augsburg (18-3)?   Similar early loss to 11-10 Puget Sound (after travelling to the West Coast), but other losses only to ranked one loss Bethel (by 4) and 16-5 Gustavus Adolphus.
13.  Trinity (18-3)?   Close losses to ranked UT-Dallas, ranked St Thomas (MN), and a 17-5 St Thomas (TX) team in the first year of their transition from NAIA to D3.  Also beat the George Fox team Scranton lost to by 19 to open the season.   
12.  Baldwin-Wallace (19-2)?   Losses to ranked Wartburg and ranked John Carroll, who have five losses combined.

I'm going to stop there.   

The other side of the equation are wins over ranked teams; unless I missed something, a win over #25 DeSales is Scranton's sole result over teams actually in the top 25 - there's no signature win screaming that the team deserves to be ranked higher.   When you look at the teams directly above you, it's hard to move Scranton up, and if you don't move up, you're not going to gain points in the poll. 

[CCD3Basketball]

Please voters justify this how the hell does Scranton gain only 30 points over 3 weeks after beating the two teams that beat them early in the season?30 points but after 3 losses early in the season  you take 371 pts off them?

[disclaimer - not a voter]

Early season losses always cost more in any poll, and let's face it, beating Catholic (while a nice win) and .500 Elizabethtown are simply expected results given that Scranton is ranked and neither of them are.  The 1-point win at Susquehanna also didn't turn anyone's heads.  Losing to a team like Elizabethtown anytime during the season isn't a good look, and there are a lot of other 3-loss teams that don't have such a result on the resume. 

Let's have a look at the teams above you, who should voters rank Scranton above?

15.  Oglethorpe (23-1)?   One loss all season, early to 17-4 Emory & Henry.
14.  Augsburg (18-3)?   Similar early loss to 11-10 Puget Sound (after travelling to the West Coast), but other losses only to ranked one loss Bethel (by 4) and 16-5 Gustavus Adolphus.
13.  Trinity (18-3)?   Close losses to ranked UT-Dallas, ranked St Thomas (MN), and a 17-5 St Thomas (TX) team in the first year of their transition from NAIA to D3.  Also beat the George Fox team Scranton lost to by 19 to open the season.   
12.  Baldwin-Wallace (19-2)?   Losses to ranked Wartburg and ranked John Carroll, who have five losses combined.

I'm going to stop there.   

The other side of the equation are wins over ranked teams; unless I missed something, a win over #25 DeSales is Scranton's sole result over teams actually in the top 25 - there's no signature win screaming that the team deserves to be ranked higher.   When you look at the teams directly above you, it's hard to move Scranton up, and if you don't move up, you're not going to gain points in the poll.

Sums up my thoughts perfectly. When you're a team receiving quite a few preseason #1 votes and then lose to teams considerably below you in the rankings, you are going to tumble. Beating those same teams again doesn't mean you will rocket back up the polls, unless those teams also have high rankings, which they don't. As you said, those are teams they were expected to beat. Beating a team you are expected to beat doesn't turn heads of a lot of voters, especially when other teams around you in the polls are also posting wins over teams that are also ranked or above them in the rankings.

[scottiedawg]

Fairly boring week.

Chicago and Bethel lost a lot of votes. Most of the move ups were due to that.
UT-Dallas + 61 was the biggest vote gainer.
I expected Amherst to get more of a pop than +54. Only +13%. Among the 11 teams that gained the most votes, that was the 3rd lowest percentage gained.

Is there a listing of which conferences have tournaments? Thanks in advance.


Largest disagreements between D3hoops.com and Massey:    (***caveat, not saying there shouldn't be differences  :-) )
Higher in D3hoops.com than in Massey:
Austin, 43 spots
Misericordia, 36
DeSales, 29
Catholic, 25
Transylvania, 22
Hardin-Simmons, 21
Scranton, 20
Albright, 19
Oglethorpe, 11
Mary Hardin-Baylor, 11
Messiah, 10

Higher in Massey than in D3hoops.com:
Trine, 13
John Carroll, 12
UW-LaCrosse, 12
Emory, 12
Albion, 11
Baldwin Wallace, 9
Benedictine, 9
Chicago, 6
Wartburg, 5
St. Thomas, 5


To make a gross generalization, Massey seems to place a relatively heavier weight on SOS than the D3hoops.com voters do.
Take Misericordia for example: their SOS rank is very similar between NCAA and Massey (weak in both). Yet Massey has them 36 spots lower than D3hoops.com.

On the flipside, Emory is a good case. very similar SOS between NCAA and Massey (strong in both). Massey has them slotted 12 spots higher than D3hoops.com.

There are cases where the SOS diverge wildly, which could definitely explain lots/most of the ranking discrepancies. (Trine, John Carroll), (DeSales, Messiah)



Highest Massey ranks that get no votes:
Simpson, 16
UW-Eau Claire, 22
Luther, 24
Gustavus Adolphus, 27
Illinois Wesleyan, 29


Simpson is still a fascinating study. 5 losses is more than most teams that get votes. But all were to good teams. And they have a bunch of really good wins. Strong SOS in both NCAA and Massey. If you merely remove their early early season loss to LaCrosse, I could see them ranked at the very end of the top 25 right now.

The rest of the teams have a lot of losses, which doesn't get you ranked. Without looking, I bet a majority of those losses were "good", and I bet there are lots of impressive wins.

It's borderline impossible to compare teams that have very few wins, but have played no one (e.g. Austin, Albright) with teams that have 3-4x as many losses, but have played a very difficult slate.
Il Wesleyan, Eau Claire, Simpson, Luther--all have very very tough SOS by both methodologies. (NCAA thinks Gust Adolphus has had a pretty easy schedule; Massey doesn't).

Among teams in the D3hoops.com top 25:
Team, AVG SOS between NCAA and Massey:
Austin, 253.5
Transylvania, 191.5
Bethel, 137.5
Oglethorpe, 123.5

Among teams receiving no votes:
UW-Eau Claire, 7.0
Luther, 13.0
Illinois Wesleyan, 15.0
Simpson, 18.5

Boy would I love to have a tournament with those 8 teams, where each team plays two teams from the other group. Wouldn't be shocked if the bottom group does better than .500.

[gordonmann]

Scottie Dawg:

Every conference but the UAA has a tournament.

At some point in the next week or so, we'll start putting this together.

https://www.d3hoops.com/seasons/women/2018-19/conference-tournaments/index

The NESCAC, NJAC and CUNYAC usually finish their regular seasons first with the NESCAC wrapping up play this weekend. We'll start to put it together after that.

[deiscanton]

There is a possibility that no UAA women's basketball team will be in the top 25  this week when the D3hoops.com poll comes out this evening.  The WBCA may still keep Chicago ranked on Tuesday, however.  We will see what happens.

As former NYU women's basketball head coach Janice Quinn said about 20 years ago-- the NCAA regional rankings are the ones that count.  Starting on Wednesday, we will start to get a rough outlook of the potential field of 64.

Chicago remained in the D3hoops.com Top 25 poll at #24 with 78 points.  The challenge now is if any of the UAA co-leaders can go 5-0 through the rest of the UAA schedule.  Only 2 of the co-leaders will be able to accomplish this feat, as RV UAA co-leading teams Emory and NYU play each other on Friday in Atlanta.  Chicago is the other co-leader and has a rematch with CWRU on Sunday in Chicago.

WBCA poll came out, and no UAA team is in the Top 25 this week.  Chicago, Emory, and NYU are all in the receiving votes category.

[VT-Alum-NOVA]

anyone ever notice some teams on Massey have wrong conference?  kind of bugs me but i understand why.

[Rofrog]

Do you use that formula for every team because some teams out there havent lost much but have 3 losses as well!We cant use this formula for one team.and not the other Amherst lost to Emmanuel and Hamilton and they didnt pay a heavy price.So I'm just wondering do you have different formula for different teams?Thanks for answering

[scottiedawg]

Amherst is #1 in NCAA SOS (0.642)
Scranton is #78 (0.554)

Harder schedule for Amherst.
and if we're "ranking" the losses, I'd put them, from good to bad:

1. vs. Tufts (Amherst)
2. vs. George Fox (Scranton)
3. @ Catholic (Scranton)
4. @ Hamilton (Amherst)
5. vs. Emmanuel (Amherst)
6. vs. Elizabethtown

Amherst definitely has the "best" loss, and Scranton has the "worst"

and while Scranton doesn't have as weak a NCAA SOS as some teams above (Oglethorpe, Bethel, Transylvania), you can see how the voters view those teams. Worse Win% than Amherst, but fewer votes.

Amherst may have been buoyed by their preseason #1 ranking, but they lost 120 votes after their first loss. Lots of good wins in between their losses kept their votes ticking up.

Scranton's best win is vs. DeSales. Amherst has ~8 wins of similar or better quality. (that's just restating the SOS argument of course! don't want to double count)


BTW, implying that there's a different formula being used for different teams is purely confrontational and you know it.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Do you use that formula for every team because some teams out there havent lost much but have 3 losses as well!We cant use this formula for one team.and not the other Amherst lost to Emmanuel and Hamilton and they didnt pay a heavy price.So I'm just wondering do you have different formula for different teams?Thanks for answering

I think he answers this question, actually.

For a vast majority of teams, they have losses against better opponents. Emmanuel is 15-7 (coached by one of the best coaches in DIII). Hamilton 14-8.

E-town is 10-10 ... with one win and one loss coming to Scranton. They don't compare in terms of a result to those you keep bringing up.

Why should there be a "heavy price" to losses to Emmanuel and Hamilton compared to E-town? They shouldn't.

But because you bring it up... Amherst went from being ranked #1 with 16 first-place votes to ranked #5 with no first-place votes after their loss to Emmanuel. I think that is a pretty "heavy price" (considering they rolled over Eastern Connecticut in the next game, by the way, that same week).

I don't think you understand that you keep looking at this in a simplistic way when it is far more complicated. Amherst lost 105 points and went from 5th to 8th in the women's poll after the loss to Hamilton. That's significant. But, again, that is a better loss (as is the game to Emmanuel) than Scranton losing to E-town.

Amherst also barely lost to the number one team in the country and as results have shown also showed that they controlled Tufts in that game. Oh, it also went OT.

Amherst also beat Bowdoin - ranked above them. Scranton has two teams on their schedule even ranked. #25 DeSales (who just reappeared on the rankings at #25) and #18 George Fox (who handled Scranton and then stumbled badly in conference play). The win over DeSales isn't helping Scranton nor is the loss to GFU. There is a ceiling when the schedule just doesn't show results or opponents that stand out.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

BTW, implying that there's a different formula being used for different teams is purely confrontational and you know it.

This seems to be the tactic on this page and others for awhile.

[Ron Boerger]

Golly, y'all beat me to it, but I'm going to make the same points anyway.

Do you use that formula for every team because some teams out there havent lost much but have 3 losses as well!We cant use this formula for one team.and not the other Amherst lost to Emmanuel and Hamilton and they didnt pay a heavy price.So I'm just wondering do you have different formula for different teams?Thanks for answering

Emmanuel:  15-7
Hamilton:  14-8
(neither of those teams is .500)

Defeated #25 DeSales
Lost to #1 Tufts by 2 in OT
Defeated then #3 Bowdoin last week 

The close loss to Tufts is by itself better than anything Scranton has done all season, but that defeat of Bowdoin is precisely what Scranton lacks - a signature win - and justifies the confidence the voters have placed in the Mammoths.

Again, don't rant about anyone else - just provide ONE THING Scranton has done to merit being ranked higher than it is.  There are plenty of 16-3 ish teams out there and the Royals have done nothing to make themselves stand out in that crowd.

[Pat Coleman]

The close loss to Tufts is by itself better than anything Scranton has done all season, but that defeat of Bowdoin is precisely what Scranton lacks - a signature win - and justifies the confidence the voters have placed in the Mammoths.

Ding.

[CCD3Basketball]

The close loss to Tufts is by itself better than anything Scranton has done all season, but that defeat of Bowdoin is precisely what Scranton lacks - a signature win - and justifies the confidence the voters have placed in the Mammoths.

Praise