Top 25 discussion

[scottiedawg]

Some random stats from Massey:

The average Massey ranking of Loras' SIX losses is 9.33.
Calvin's 5 losses have an average Massey ranking of 10.00

Augburg's 4 losses have an average Massey ranking of 90.5
Here are teams with >= 3 losses in reverse order of average Massey ranking of teams they lost to:
DeSales - 3 losses - 83.33
Mary Washington - 5 - 77.60
E Tx Baptist - 3 - 69.86
UW-LaCrosse - 7 - 66.50
Bowdoin - 4 - 65.25
Carroll - 5 - 57.40
Bates - 4 - 55.00
IL Wesleyan - 7 - 52.43
Hardin-Simmons - 4 - 44.50
UW-Stout - 8 - 42.29
Wartburg - 4 - 41.25
UW-Oshkosh - 4 - 39.75
Puget Sound - 3 - 39.00
Gust Adolphus - 3 - 35.33
Millikin - 4 - 34.25

Whitewater has 12 wins against teams in Massey's top 100. No other team has more than 9 (Eau Claire).

Salisbury has 0 wins against teams in Massey's top 100.

Highest ranked team with only 1? Hardin-Simmons and St. John Fisher

Webster's 12 wins have an average Massy ranking of 261.67.

[Baldini]

I like how D-1 does it with ranking a team's wins in 4 quads, it gives a quick look at how teams have fared against top teams and who has signature wins. And who doesn't. A teams record against quad 1 opponents can be very telling of the potential of a team to go deep into the tournament. D-1 has a sliding scale based on if a game is home, away or neutral but if we used a little cruder process and just went 1-25 for quad 1, 26-100 for quad 2, 101-200 for quad 3 and 201 and up for quad 4 we could get a little idea at who is a real danger for the Final 4. D-3 opponents only.

I'm not doing the whole poll, but this is what the profiles of top 5 in last week's D3 Hoops poll would look like.   

Hope - Quad 1 - 3-1, Quad 2 - 4-0, Quad 3 - 2-0, Quad 4 - 6-0 

Trine - 4-2, 3-0, 2-0, 6-0

CNU - 0-0, 6-0, 4-0, 7-0

Transylvania - 2-0, 0-0, 9-0, 5-0

Simpson - 4-1, 5-0, 4-0, 4-0

[Mr. Ypsi]

The men's poll came out earlier than I can recall in a long time - still anxiously awaiting the women's!  (I've been checking every half hour ever since the men's came out! )

I'm gonna stick my neck out that Hope remains narrowly #1 (were it not for Covid, they might well be seeking their THIRD straight natty - something not seen since WashU's amazing run from 1998-2001), that Trine jumps to #2, and CNU follows at 3.  I'd think it is a nip-and-tuck battle between  Transy and Simpson for 4 and 5.

I can't help but think that Hope is still the best; the loss might even help them in the tourney be taking off the pressure of a record-challenging streak (though I dare say they would have preferred the win! )

[scottiedawg]

I am glad that I am not a voter. I think the top n teams could go any which way.

My current top 10 is this, but you could make the case that most of those teams be plus/minus 2-4 spots and I wouldn't have much disagreement:
Hope
UW-Whitewater
Simpson
Chris Newport
Trine
New York University
Transylvania
Whitman
Tufts
John Carroll

(this is not a prediction of what the voters do)

[scottiedawg]

Biggest Vote Gainers:
Messiah: +145
Mary Hardin-Baylor: +102
Catholic: +87
Wisconsin Lutheran: +68
Scranton: +60
Baldwin-Wallace: +59
E Tx Baptist: +48
Trine: +44
John Carroll: +37
Tufts: +35
Smith: +30
Trinity TX: +28
UW-Whitewater: +26
DePauw: +26
UW-Oshkosh: +25
Gettysburg: +22


Biggest Vote Losers:
Wartburg: -203
Springfield: -199
NYU: -83
UW-Eau Claire: -81
Marietta: -80
Bowdoin: -77
Hope: -49
Hardin-Simmons: -32
UT Dallas: -20
Mary Washington: -16
Carroll: -15
Augsburg: -13
Roger Williams: -12

[gordonmann]

Congrats to CNU on its first time as No. 1 in the country!

It was a really tight vote with four teams getting votes. I'll add some more notes after the kids are in bed.

[saratoga]

All things considered, I think the committee got the top 3 teams correct based on where these teams are right now.
Certainly any one of them could win it all as could several other schools getting stronger as the season progresses.
Smith just put their toe in the water & Tufts ruined that pool day & Catholic climbs higher than they've been in quite some time only to have E-town ruin that moment.
Scranton is at E-town Saturday & don't be surprised to see the Blue Jays continue to open some eyes.

[CNU85]

It's certainly a good time to be a Captains fan. Women are #1. Men are #4.

Womens soccer just won national championship. Men finished ranked #11.
Multiple preseason all -Americans for both LAX teams...men ranked 5th, women as high as 20th.

I just hope the search committee finds a new President equally committed to athletics as Paul Trible.

[gordonmann]

Here are a few more notes.

I'm your Captain (Closest to No. 1) Christopher Newport is the 29th team to reach the No. 1 spot in our women's poll. The men's side has had a few more with Yeshiva being the 33rd earlier this season. The Captains started the season ranked No. 20 in the preseason and climbed their way to No. 1 before the NCAA Tournament, which is very unusual. A few teams started lower than that or outside the poll entirely (Illinois Wesleyan, Trinity, Wilmington) but they all reached No. 1 by winning the title. It's hard to climb all the way to No. 1 during the regular season.

Hope had been the No. 1 team for 18 straight weeks. That's not the longest run atop the poll, but it's the longest since Thomas More held down the top spot during the Sydney Moss era for 19 straight weeks. I think the longest streak ever belongs to Washington U, which was No. 1 for the first 26 weeks of the poll's history. Amherst had a long winning streak and won two titles but wasn't No. 1 for that entire run.

Speaking of streaks, Bowdoin's run of consecutive Top 25 appearances ends at 55. The three longest streaks going belong to Amherst (196), Tufts (128) and Hope (125).

Such great heights: Congratulations to Wisconsin Lutheran which is now No. 14 in the country. That's the highest ranking ever for the Warriors, at least so far!

Eye of the Tigers: Trinity (Texas) is the 27th team to appear in our poll at least 100 times. The Tigers are now 24th.

[ronk]

All things considered, I think the committee got the top 3 teams correct based on where these teams are right now.
Certainly any one of them could win it all as could several other schools getting stronger as the season progresses.
Smith just put their toe in the water & Tufts ruined that pool day & Catholic climbs higher than they've been in quite some time only to have E-town ruin that moment.
Scranton is at E-town Saturday & don't be surprised to see the Blue Jays continue to open some eyes.

That would be the 12th, not the 5th, but the point is well taken.

[hopefan]

Well guys, we tried... still couldn't get that magical single vote in the poll for undefeated Webster!!!

Maybe next week!!!!

Ugly thought... what if Webster remains undefeated in regular season, BUT (gasp, gasp, gasp) gets upset in Conference tourney... how disheartening would it be to not get a bid to the Dance with a one loss season.....
I'm sure it has happened to some other team in the past... wonder in the past what best record of team denied a bid due to nature of their schedule was???

[gordonmann]

Yeah, we had the same question with the Lancaster Bible men a couple years ago. Fortuntely they won their conference tournament and rendered the conversation a "what if..."

[hopefan]

Yeah, we had the same question with the Lancaster Bible men a couple years ago. Fortuntely they won their conference tournament and rendered the conversation a "what if..."

I remember... very much a similar situation.....

[Flying Dutch Fan]

Well guys, we tried... still couldn't get that magical single vote in the poll for undefeated Webster!!!

Maybe next week!!!!

Ugly thought... what if Webster remains undefeated in regular season, BUT (gasp, gasp, gasp) gets upset in Conference tourney... how disheartening would it be to not get a bid to the Dance with a one loss season.....
I'm sure it has happened to some other team in the past... wonder in the past what best record of team denied a bid due to nature of their schedule was???

I think we will be in a much better place to assess that possibility when we see how the regional commmitte ranks them since that is what matters regarding tournament selection. 

[hopefan]

Well guys, we tried... still couldn't get that magical single vote in the poll for undefeated Webster!!!

Maybe next week!!!!

Ugly thought... what if Webster remains undefeated in regular season, BUT (gasp, gasp, gasp) gets upset in Conference tourney... how disheartening would it be to not get a bid to the Dance with a one loss season.....
I'm sure it has happened to some other team in the past... wonder in the past what best record of team denied a bid due to nature of their schedule was???

I think we will be in a much better place to assess that possibility when we see how the regional commmitte ranks them since that is what matters regarding tournament selection.

Like I mentioned before, such a shame they didn't schedule Wash U in order to really gauge their competitive level....