Top 25 discussion

[Pat Coleman]

I believe the SOS's have just been added to D3 Hoops, am I wrong, or has it been there all basketball season?

https://www.d3hoops.com/seasons/women/2021-22/schedule?tmpl=sos-template

It has been there for about 18 hours. Good eye!

Over the weekend I went through and audited the 4,000 or so basketball games that have already been played, in an attempt to make sure that they were properly marked in-region or out-of-region. The data is almost certainly not perfect but it is as good as we have had it all season.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

We had another midday edition of Hoopsville on Monday. Great show with plenty of DIII chat, but also insightful conversations with each of our guests.



The basketball season is now fully into February and with conference tournaments looming, teams continue to ready themselves for the stretch run.

On Monday's Hoopsville, we chatted with several teams who are leading their conference races and making national headlines in the meantime. Plus, we look ahead at what will be ever-changing Top 25 polls. There is always plenty of upsets, close games, amazing feats, and surprising results to talk about in Division III.

Reminder, Monday shows' guests primarily come from Regions 1 & 2, 4, 6, and 8.

Guests included:
- Brian Baptiste, UMass-Dartmouth men's coach
- John Krikorian, No. 4 Christopher Newport men's coach
- Dixie Jeffers, former Capital women's coach & interim AD
- Mandy King, Kean women's coach
- Olivia Lett, Millikin women's coach

Watch the show here: www.d3hoops.com/hoopsville/archives/2021-22/feb7

Listen to the podcast here: https://soundcloud.com/hoopsville/1920-stretch-run?si=77077a5aa28a4c8c9f0bfa60e5c3b3c2&utm_source=clipboard&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=social_sharing

[scottiedawg]

There are only 20 teams whose D3 Winning % is > 1 standard deviation above the mean, and whose NCAA SOS is > 1 standard deviation above the mean

Tufts
Smith
Transylvania
Amherst
UW-Eau Claire
UW-Whitewater
Christopher Newport
Simpson
NYU
Messiah
UC Santa Cruz
Trine
Bowdoin
Marietta
Trinity CT
Baldwin-Wallace
UW-Oshkosh
Babson
Millikin
York PA

Teams not in that list:
Hope - NCAA SOS is 0.77 standard deviations above the mean (Win% is +1.81)
John Carroll - NCAA SOS is +0.82 ()Win% is +1.62)
DePauw - NCAA SOS is +0.62 (Win% is +1.64)
Whitman - NCAA SOS is +0.55 (Win% is +1.81)
Roger Williams - NCAA SOS is -0.21 (Win% is 1.84)
Springfield - NCAA SOS is +0.63 (Win% is +1.64)
Wisconsin Lutheran - NCAA SOS is -0.09 (Win% is +2.05)
E Tx Baptist - NCAA SOS is +0.70 (Win% is +1.20)
Webster - NCAA SOS is -0.82 (Win% is +2.05)
Calvin - NCAA SOS is +0.51 (Win% is +1.04)
St. John Fisher - NCAA SOS is +0.70 (Win% is +1.66)
Albion - NCAA SOS is -0.34 (Win% is 1.04)
Mary Hardin-Baylor - NCAA SOS is +0.60 (Win% is +1.62)
Wartburg - NCAA SOS is 0.72 (Win% is +1.20)
Catholic - NCAA SOS is 0.79 (Win% is 1.62)
Scranton - NCAA SOS is 0.87 (Win% is 1.66)
Trinity Texas - NCAA SOS is -0.55 (Win% is 1.64)


Only 6 teams better than +1.30 in both metrics:
Tufts
Smith
Transylvania
Amherst
UW-Whitewater
Messiah (!!!)

[scottiedawg]

   
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     

*Team*	*Massey*	*D3Hoops*	*Win% StDev*	*NCAA SOS StDev*	*AVG of 2 StDev metrics*	*Weighted (Win% 67%, SOS 33%)*
Tufts	14	7	1.44	2.50	1.97	2.32
UW-Eau Claire	8	20	1.13	2.24	1.69	2.06
Smith	26	25	1.62	1.90	1.76	1.85
Amherst	13	11	1.60	1.83	1.72	1.79
Mary Washington	70	#N/A	0.84	1.90	1.37	1.72
Bates	64	31	0.62	1.92	1.27	1.70
UW-Stout	28	#N/A	0.43	1.94	1.18	1.69
UW-Whitewater	4	8	1.68	1.68	1.68	1.68
UC Santa Cruz	31	32	1.15	1.70	1.42	1.60
Bowdoin	35	28	1.09	1.59	1.34	1.51
Transylvania	12	4	2.05	1.39	1.72	1.50
Messiah	23	17	1.62	1.42	1.52	1.46
UW-LaCrosse	17	#N/A	0.32	1.68	1.00	1.45
Chris Newport	3	1	2.05	1.23	1.64	1.37
UW-Oshkosh	9	30	1.04	1.42	1.23	1.36
Chicago	40	#N/A	0.56	1.51	1.04	1.35
Simpson IA	5	5	1.84	1.25	1.55	1.35
Babson	38	#N/A	1.04	1.40	1.22	1.34
NYU	6	10	1.82	1.23	1.53	1.33
Marietta	22	26	1.28	1.28	1.28	1.28
Trine	2	2	1.62	1.16	1.39	1.24
UT Dallas	59	34	0.70	1.30	1.00	1.20
Loras	32	#N/A	0.84	1.27	1.05	1.20
Baldwin-Wallace	7	12	1.37	1.15	1.26	1.18
Millikin	20	#N/A	1.24	1.16	1.20	1.18
Scranton	37	21	1.66	0.87	1.27	1.00
Gettysburg	36	29	1.64	0.84	1.24	0.97
John Carroll	11	9	1.62	0.82	1.22	0.96
Hope	1	3	1.81	0.77	1.29	0.94
Catholic	53	18	1.62	0.79	1.21	0.93
Carroll	33	#N/A	0.84	0.92	0.88	0.91
Pacific	45	#N/A	0.84	0.89	0.86	0.88
St. John Fisher	66	22	1.66	0.70	1.18	0.86
Ithaca	42	40	1.44	0.70	1.07	0.83
IL Wesleyan	39	#N/A	0.64	0.84	0.74	0.81
Springfield	18	23	1.64	0.63	1.14	0.80
Wartburg	16	19	1.20	0.72	0.96	0.80
DePauw	15	13	1.64	0.62	1.13	0.79
E Tx Baptist	34	16	1.20	0.70	0.95	0.78
Mary Hardin-Baylor	61	15	1.62	0.60	1.11	0.77
Whitman	10	6	1.81	0.55	1.18	0.76
Salisbury	67	#N/A	1.20	0.67	0.93	0.76
Calvin	19	#N/A	1.04	0.51	0.78	0.60
Puget Sound	21	#N/A	1.34	0.32	0.83	0.49
Redlands	50	41	1.34	0.31	0.82	0.48
Ohio Northern	27	39	0.99	0.38	0.68	0.48
WPI	68	38	1.41	0.29	0.85	0.48
Hardin-Simmons	57	27	1.15	0.34	0.75	0.48
DeSales	24	35	1.37	0.27	0.82	0.46
Wisconsin Lutheran	51	14	2.05	(0.09)	0.98	0.27
Augsburg	49	42	1.20	0.02	0.61	0.21
Rhodes	92	#N/A	1.60	(0.12)	0.74	0.17
St. Lawrence	77	#N/A	1.64	(0.15)	0.74	0.14
Roger Williams	46	36	1.84	(0.21)	0.82	0.14
Gustavus Adolphus	29	37	1.15	(0.26)	0.45	(0.02)
Albion	30	33	1.04	(0.34)	0.35	(0.11)
Trinity TX	25	24	1.64	(0.55)	0.55	(0.18)
Webster	41	#N/A	2.05	(0.82)	0.61	(0.34)

(Massey values may be a bit off since I haven't run my update script in a few days)

[PauldingLightUP]

Webster gets five votes this week!

[scottiedawg]

Biggest Vote Gainers:
Scranton: +64
Messiah: +46
Trinity TX: +45
Springfield: +37
UW-Eau Claire: +33
Mary Hardin-Baylor: +30
Baldwin-Wallace: +29
Gettysburg: +29
Wartburg: +29
John Carroll: +22
UW-Whitewater: +22


Biggest Vote Decliners:
E Tx Baptist: -132
Tufts: -111
Catholic: -54
Marietta: -41
Bowdoin: -40
Hardin-Simmons: -35
UW-Oshkosh: -18
Smith: -17
Bates: -15

[Augie2020]

I think Massey is a little behind!I mean Amherst smashed them at Bowdoin and still had plus 9!Maybe I'm wrong?

[Augie2020]

Scottiedawg-I like your insight into womens basketball!!!You do a great job,keep it up!

[hopefan]

Webster gets five votes this week!

Congrats to the Gorlocks!!!!!   surprisingly, they were down at half by 3 to Fontbonne last night, but blew them out in the second half to win by 19. 

[scottiedawg]

First half was a little fluky for Fontbonne--they had a player score 28 going I think 7-10 from 3. I don't think she scored for most of the 2nd half.

[RogK]

scottiedawg, it is an insult to call it "fluky" when "a player" works hard developing a skill and has a fine shooting game, in this case Rylee Stafford hitting 7 of 11 threes on her way to 29 pts.
Even if you don't agree with that, a little research reveals that she is a very good high volume 3FG shooter :
http://stats.ncaa.org/player/index?game_sport_year_ctl_id=15866&org_id=11538&stats_player_seq=1956882
She has made at least 5 threes in 8 games, 71 in 17 games and her 3FG% is .364, the equivalent of .546 for 2FGs.

[IC798891]

scottiedawg, it is an insult to call it "fluky" when "a player" works hard developing a skill and has a fine shooting game, in this case Rylee Stafford hitting 7 of 11 threes on her way to 29 pts.
Even if you don't agree with that, a little research reveals that she is a very good high volume 3FG shooter :
http://stats.ncaa.org/player/index?game_sport_year_ctl_id=15866&org_id=11538&stats_player_seq=1956882
She has made at least 5 threes in 8 games, 71 in 17 games and her 3FG% is .364, the equivalent of .546 for 2FGs.

The D3 women's single game record is 15. Hitting 7 in one half is essentially being at that pace. Hitting 7-of-10 is also a much higher percentage than we'd expect from her (as your own comment points out), or honestly, any player.

Fluky may not be the right word, but "highly unlikely to be sustainable" fits pretty well. That's also not an insult.

Players sometimes perform at levels well above their own baseline. That's where career bests come from.

IC had a great 3 point shooter once, Andrei Oztemel. One game, against St. Larwrence, he had:

13 points in a span of 2:52
23 points in a span of 10:22

He was a great player, and great shooter...performing for a brief period of time at a wholly unsustainable level. It happens, and recognizing that is not an insult

[scottiedawg]

I intended to convey "statistical anomaly" and "unsustainable" when I used the word fluky.

[Baldini]

There are only 20 teams whose D3 Winning % is > 1 standard deviation above the mean, and whose NCAA SOS is > 1 standard deviation above the mean

Tufts
Smith
Transylvania
Amherst
UW-Eau Claire
UW-Whitewater
Christopher Newport
Simpson
NYU
Messiah
UC Santa Cruz
Trine
Bowdoin
Marietta
Trinity CT
Baldwin-Wallace
UW-Oshkosh
Babson
Millikin
York PA

Teams not in that list:
Hope - NCAA SOS is 0.77 standard deviations above the mean (Win% is +1.81)
John Carroll - NCAA SOS is +0.82 ()Win% is +1.62)
DePauw - NCAA SOS is +0.62 (Win% is +1.64)
Whitman - NCAA SOS is +0.55 (Win% is +1.81)
Roger Williams - NCAA SOS is -0.21 (Win% is 1.84)
Springfield - NCAA SOS is +0.63 (Win% is +1.64)
Wisconsin Lutheran - NCAA SOS is -0.09 (Win% is +2.05)
E Tx Baptist - NCAA SOS is +0.70 (Win% is +1.20)
Webster - NCAA SOS is -0.82 (Win% is +2.05)
Calvin - NCAA SOS is +0.51 (Win% is +1.04)
St. John Fisher - NCAA SOS is +0.70 (Win% is +1.66)
Albion - NCAA SOS is -0.34 (Win% is 1.04)
Mary Hardin-Baylor - NCAA SOS is +0.60 (Win% is +1.62)
Wartburg - NCAA SOS is 0.72 (Win% is +1.20)
Catholic - NCAA SOS is 0.79 (Win% is 1.62)
Scranton - NCAA SOS is 0.87 (Win% is 1.66)
Trinity Texas - NCAA SOS is -0.55 (Win% is 1.64)


Only 6 teams better than +1.30 in both metrics:
Tufts
Smith
Transylvania
Amherst
UW-Whitewater
Messiah (!!!)

That's good work, relevant info.

[Roundball999]

I intended to convey "statistical anomaly" and "unsustainable" when I used the word fluky.

That's the way I read it.  Pretty sure sinking 7 threes in a half is quite unusual and unexpected in just about any hoops game.