Top 25 discussion

[gordonmann]

I like the change in assigning C2C teams to "correct" regions instead of just one region as they are VERY spread out.  Maybe next year another change would be to assign ALL teams regardless of conference to "location-based" region.  How would this affect 64 selection?  It would help in getting schools closest to each other for travel.

Yeah, the geography-or-conference question for assigning regions takes us into the familiar territory of how to balance the goal of giving every team a chance to participate in the NCAA Tournament or take the 64 best teams. This argument will certainly surface in a couple weeks when the at-large bids are announced.

Here's a hypothetical example. Let's say Hamilton finishes in 6th place in the NESCAC. If you assign region by conference, Hamilton lands in Region 1, along with the other New England-based NESCAC teams, and doesn't get ranked.

But what if the Continentals have a really good non-conference record playing against teams mostly in Upstate New York. Do you put the Continentals in Region 3 where they may be regionally ranked and have a chance to get to the table for an at-large bid before their conference mates in Region 1? And does Hamilton block another team in Region 3 from getting to the table for an at-large bid that has a better chance at getting one?

The Committee has solved this one by putting Hamilton in Region 1.

Maybe the difference is that Hamilton is an "outlier" and almost everyone's an outlier in the C2C.

[Pat Coleman]

  It would help in getting schools closest to each other for travel.

It wouldn't affect how teams are selected or paired up. That is already done based on geography.

[thebear]

Here's a hypothetical example. Let's say Hamilton finishes in 6th place in the NESCAC. If you assign region by conference, Hamilton lands in Region 1, along with the other New England-based NESCAC teams, and doesn't get ranked.

But what if the Continentals have a really good non-conference record playing against teams mostly in Upstate New York. Do you put the Continentals in Region 3 where they may be regionally ranked and have a chance to get to the table for an at-large bid before their conference mates in Region 1? And does Hamilton block another team in Region 3 from getting to the table for an at-large bid that has a better chance at getting one?

The Committee has solved this one by putting Hamilton in Region 1.

Maybe the difference is that Hamilton is an "outlier" and almost everyone's an outlier in the C2C.

Thanks to Matt Snyder's excellent work, one can see that Hamilton is ranked currently 80th overall and 9th in Region I. 

Were they in Region III - their "natural" home region, they would be ranked 11th as the #80 overall team.  To Hamilton's credit they have played 4 of the ranked teams in the region, and have a 1-3 record.

I have observed that the women's programs in Region III are generally a bit stronger than the men's programs.  Average Snyder Rank of the top 10 women's teams is 49, while the men's top ten average rank is 57.

[scottiedawg]

Banana Slugs gave a Terwiliger-less CNU all they could handle on a neutral court. CNU looks very different when they're not getting TOs from their press and getting easy layups.

[Augie2020]

Not sure if your a voter Scottiedawg but I like your input!I'm not sure why the voters are holding on so tight to Eau Claire I understand they beat a couple teams that are very good but there record is 17-7 they lost their last  two games to teams like 13-9,11-10 im sure better teams are out there with only 2 or 3 losses!So why are they even in option at this point Sdawg?

[gordonmann]

I expect the Blugolds will drop out of the Top 25 this week. They beat more than "a couple good teams" -- they beat two of the top five teams in the country and split with No. 7 UW-Whitewater. But seven losses is too many, at least for me.

[Augie2020]

Thanks GordonMann! wins against Trine and Simpson were in the beginning of the season.I think we should be focusing on today I mean they lost to 13-9 team and 11-9 team.So if this team was say 12-12 and they had them impressive wins over Trine and Simpson would you still vote for them? I understand alot of moving parts but I see teams more well deserving then them being in the top 25 Ithaca,Steven's etc.So I understand to a point buti don't care if you beat Uconn shouldn't make up for 7 loss team being in the top 25.Glad I heard your take on it GM and truly appreciate it !

[Pat Coleman]

Thanks GordonMann! wins against Trine and Simpson were in the beginning of the season.I think we should be focusing on today I mean they lost to 13-9 team and 11-9 team.So if this team was say 12-12 and they had them impressive wins over Trine and Simpson would you still vote for them?

Not sure the point of your hypothetical, since they are 17-7 and not 12-12. (And they were 17-5 the last time the panel voted.)

[Augie2020]

With five losses Pat is still alot of L to be in the top 25 especially in my eyes teams 20-3,19-3 just in my eyes should get a much better look then a 17-5 team that beat two top 5 teams many many months ago that's all I'm saying so my point was okay EC is 17-7 if they were 12-12 would they get that same look because they beat two top 5 teams in November and I asked that to GM since he was the one that brought that up.Not trying to get a haha I got you this is a legitimate question which I should had phrased it better in a question form so you didn't think it was a gotcha question.I know he is a voter and he also gives great insight on the way he votes and I appreciate that.

[Augie2020]

Sorry about short Name Gordanmann(GM) and Scottiedawg(Sdawg) just faster

[MrMaus]

The NESCAC is a mass of confusion this year. They went from 2019/20 having 4 teams in the sweet 16 to eighteen months of no organized practices. A swath of freshman from the 2019/20 season transferred to schools where they could play, leaving a dearth of juniors. Many teams brought back at most 1 or 2 starters and very little continuity, including some new coaches. For example, Trinity is now being led by two D1 transfers, one of which didn't arrive until this January. Add the fact that all but one of the schools does not have a graduate program and the tuition plus opportunity cost of a job could top $150,000 to be able to play an extra year as an undergraduate, it is not a surprise all the programs are trying to find their footing.

Covid continued to rear its ugly head by forcing scheduling changes. Amherst went 35 days between games. Tufts flew across the country to play one game. There is also the self-inflicted wound of testing, even asymptomatic kids, two or three times a week resulting in game-time changes to lineups. Connecticut College's decision to miss their last two games results in Trinity hosting the finals weekend instead of Amherst (and unsaid, gave Conn College a higher seeding in the conference tournament).

The 18 game floor for NCAA participation meant many teams would play even if many tested positive, rather than risk slipping under that limit. Given the fear that a nasty storm could wipe out a weekend, that is not unreasonable. Imagine if the big northeastern storm hit on a Friday/Saturday instead of a Wednesday/Thursday, most teams might only have gotten 7 or 8 conference games in. Add in the games canceled due to covid and what a mess that would have been for the conference tournament, not to mention regional rankings.

But ... that does not change the fact that the ladies are athletic, talented and skilled. They are well coached across the board. They have still gone out and played challenging non-conference schedules, mostly successfully, with 8 of the top 15 NCAA SoS according to D3Hoops. They have 3 or 4 more games to smooth out the remaining rough edges. It will be interesting if the selection committee decides legacy matters and gives them 4 berths (Tufts, Trinity and Amherst are locks, IMHO) or just the 3. Regardless of rankings I doubt any of the top 10 would be happy to see any NESCAC team get dropped into their pod for the first round of the tournament.

[IC798891]

Ithaca with another statement win yesterday, with a 14-point win over St. Lawrence at home, completing the season sweep.

RIT on the road could be a tough game coming up — the Bombers won by just 10 at home earlier in the year, and led by just 5 midway through the 4th.

But, if the Bombers survive that, it sets up a winner-take-first battle with Vassar for the top seed in the LL tournament.

[scottiedawg]

Not sure if your a voter Scottiedawg but I like your input!I'm not sure why the voters are holding on so tight to Eau Claire I understand they beat a couple teams that are very good but there record is 17-7 they lost their last  two games to teams like 13-9,11-10 im sure better teams are out there with only 2 or 3 losses!So why are they even in option at this point Sdawg?

@Augie2020  here are some opinions!

I used to think that a Top 25 poll should just be backwards looking, assessing only what a team has done thus far on the floor this year.

But Ryan Scott made a great point and convinced me otherwise, paraphrased "if all we're doing is evaluating games already played and nothing else, computers can do that far better than humans"

So when I'm making opinionated statements like "x team is too high / too low" it's trying to use all available information, and predict which team would win on a netural court tomorrow.

I still think Eau Claire is one of the best 25 teams, maybe even one of the best 20. Their backwards looking resume doesn't really support a top 25 ranking. Voters/fans get to choose their own criteria as they rank teams.

I also am trying to question "assumptions/conventions" like "five losses is still alot" and "they lost to 13-9 team and 11-9 team"

I don't think you can assess the value of a win or the value of a loss without considering the opponent.

This is also why teams with a bunch of losses but very good wins and a crazy strong SOS are so fun (and impossible) to compare to teams with very few losses with a very weak SOS.

I think Eau Claire is a better team than Wisconsin Lutheran
I think Stout is better than St. Lawrence
I think Ohio Northern is better than Rhodes
I think Illinois Wesleyan is better than Salisbury
I think Bowdoin is better than Hardin-Simmons
I think Oshkosh is better than Roger Williams

[Pat Coleman]

With five losses Pat is still alot of L to be in the top 25 especially in my eyes teams 20-3,19-3 just in my eyes should get a much better look then a 17-5 team that beat two top 5 teams many many months ago...

Also beat Whitewater on Jan. 22. Again, with two more losses this week, clearly dropping out of the Top 25, but it would sure be good if you were actually considering their real resume.

[Roundball999]

Well, I'll beat the topic to death a little more... 

Eau Claire is still at #11 in Massey, clearly based on a strength of schedule that Massey has at #2 in the nation.  I get that at some point you have to win some games but, consider the extreme hypothetical example of a team that plays every one of the top 20 teams and ends up with 10 losses out of those 20 games.  It would make no sense to have them unranked just on the basis of those 10 losses.  I realize this is not Eau Claire's situation, they have some bad losses but even the 11-9 and 13-9 teams have strong SoS and high Massey rankings.  Wins and losses matter, they matter most, but they are not the only thing that matters.  We see maybe the best example of that every year when teams with stellar records but weak SoS lose in the NCAA first round.   That's also a good example of how things sort themselves out during tournament time.  In the meantime, the weekly rankings are a fun diversion for which I thank D3hoops.