Top 25 discussion

[scottiedawg]

Biggest Vote Gainers:
Chicago: +159
Trine: +138
DeSales: +28
NYU: +24
Mary Washington: +24
Puget Sound: +22
Chris Newport: +14
Trinity TX: +13
Scranton: +10
Amherst: +8
Emory: +8
Baldwin-Wallace: +7
Ohio Northern: +6
Hardin-Simmons: +5
Trinity CT: +5
Babson: +4
Transylvania: +2
UC Santa Cruz: +2
Stevens: +2
Catholic: +2


Biggest Vote Decliners:
UW-Whitewater: -166
Hope: -103
Ithaca: -32
UW-Eau Claire: -31
E Tx Baptist: -25
Tufts: -23
Smith: -17
Springfield: -14
Gust Adolphus: -11
Calvin: -9
Cortland St.: -7
UW-River Falls: -7
Marymount VA: -6
Rochester: -5
Messiah: -5
Mary Hardin-Baylor: -4
Bowdoin: -4
Whitman: -4
UW-Oshkosh: -4
Washington & Jefferson: -3
Framingham St.: -2
Ohio Wesleyan: -1

[deiscanton]

Awesomely cool to learn about this history!

I do have one other update on this.   Although the 2000-01 Wash U team was #1 and NYU was #2 in the D3Hoops.com poll entering the NCAA DIII tournament, while the WBCA poll had NYU at #1 and Wash U at #2 in their poll entering into that same tournament, George Fox got the honor of being ranked #1 in the D3Hoops.com poll that season for the first time in the history of their women's basketball program for the immediate two weeks following NYU's win over Wash U at the Coles Center.

George Fox went on to lose their second game of the season just before the NCAA DIII tournament, allowing for that situation of the rankings to occur between Wash U and NYU.

[Augie2020]

I understand Transylvania is undefeated at 10-0.I just don't get why they are not losing more votes.You look at their schedule and at 10-0 I think one team had a winning record at 7-3 everyone else is like 5-5  or below 500.So my Question to Mr Gordon Mann- why are the voters or say you so high on Transylvania?Thanks for info .

[gordonmann]

I think it's a couple things:

1) The Pioneers went undefeated last year until the Elite 8 round of the Tournament. They lost to Trine but it was a competitive game and Trine finished the season second only to Hope. I went to Lexington to watch Transylvania last season and they were a legit Top 10 team. They needed some depth in the front court to beat a team like Trine or Hope, but they were not too far off.

2) Transylvania brought almost everyone back this season. So, in the preseason voting information, the Pioneers had really high percentages of points returning, rebounds returning, etc.

Those two factors made the Pioneers a "safe bet" for voters in the preseason. Picking the Top 5 teams is always hard because you don't have any games to evaluate. Transylvania gave voters one easy choice for the Top 5. New York University was another.

Some voters take the approach that the Pioneers haven't done anything to warrant dropping down the ballot. So they remain in their high position. Others (like me) are putting teams in front of them on their ballot because those teams have better wins. So this week I moved Transy below Baldwin Wallace and Trine. Now that the Thunder have beaten Hope, Baldwin Wallace's win over Trine looks really good -- better than anything Transy has.

Whatever approach you take, we probably won't know if Transy is the real deal until the second round of the NCAA Tournament. I think it's likely they go 25-0 in the regular season, roll through the HCAC playoffs, and dispatch two opponents on the opening weekend of the Tournament, just like they did last year.

[RogK]

And one should exclude a loss from each of Transylvania's opponents when looking at their records.
In other words, Transylvania's strength-of-schedule shouldn't be diminished by games they won.

[Augie2020]

Talking about S.O.S I hope nobody uses it when making there votes.I mean cmon Massey had Wartburg at 20 for SOS and Scranton at 23rd.You use matchup tool and Scranton losses to them.So Scranton played Wartburg today and beat them badly by 22 pts.I never liked massey and never will for SOS or voting tool .Thanks Gordon for your take .

[Augie2020]

Also Massey gave Scranton 41% chance to win today.To me its poke and hope with Massey bottom line with SOS.

[Riley Zayas]

I think it's a couple things:

1) The Pioneers went undefeated last year until the Elite 8 round of the Tournament. They lost to Trine but it was a competitive game and Trine finished the season second only to Hope. I went to Lexington to watch Transylvania last season and they were a legit Top 10 team. They needed some depth in the front court to beat a team like Trine or Hope, but they were not too far off.

2) Transylvania brought almost everyone back this season. So, in the preseason voting information, the Pioneers had really high percentages of points returning, rebounds returning, etc.

Those two factors made the Pioneers a "safe bet" for voters in the preseason. Picking the Top 5 teams is always hard because you don't have any games to evaluate. Transylvania gave voters one easy choice for the Top 5. New York University was another.

Some voters take the approach that the Pioneers haven't done anything to warrant dropping down the ballot. So they remain in their high position. Others (like me) are putting teams in front of them on their ballot because those teams have better wins. So this week I moved Transy below Baldwin Wallace and Trine. Now that the Thunder have beaten Hope, Baldwin Wallace's win over Trine looks really good -- better than anything Transy has.

Whatever approach you take, we probably won't know if Transy is the real deal until the second round of the NCAA Tournament. I think it's likely they go 25-0 in the regular season, roll through the HCAC playoffs, and dispatch two opponents on the opening weekend of the Tournament, just like they did last year.

Really good points...this is something I mention just about every week in my Top 25 breakdowns of my own ballot. There is a good chance Transy doesn't play anyone who is regionally ranked this year. But yet, we know they're undoubtedly in the national conversation based on who they return and their overall caliber of play. I've been tempted to move them down on my ballot, but haven't done so quite yet. However, I am fairly certain Trinity will be moving up to #3 for me in my next ballot (had them at #4 this week).

And Augie2020, to your point about SOS, I do use it as a factor. While I feel Massey is the best analytical tool we have available, I think there are situations when it could be weighted way too heavily. But still, you can't tell me that a team that takes two losses to two really good teams, is worse than a team like Transylvania or DeSales who just runs through a bunch of teams and plays very few high-caliber opponents during the regular season. SOS needs to be considered...otherwise it becomes more of a ranking based on records than who the best teams are. Traditionally, strong schedules produce more losses during the regular season, but result in deeper tournament runs. Look at the WIAC, MIAA or UAA this year. The best teams in those conferences will take losses because of the quality of competition. But when we get to the Sweet 16 and Elite 8, those will be the teams still playing. Obviously just my opinion, but I consider SOS to be an indicator of the quality of competition a team is facing and as a tool to better understand that team's record. An 8-2 record with losses to two Top 30 teams is much different than a 10-0 record with wins over nobody in the Top 50.

[Baldini]

Those that question Transylvania are those that don't watch Transylvania, their starters completely dismantle whoever they are playing against. As pointed out they return most well everyone from a team that their starters proved they were every bit as good as Trine was in the tournament last season. Don't forget that they held a 19-8 advantage after one in that game, the game turned when Coach Burks tried to squeeze a little too much out of her bench in the second quarter and Trine took the lead at half. Trine had a deeper team, but better starting fives was very debatable.

Last season is last season but returning such a high volume of production can't and shouldn't be ignored considering they have given no reason to believe they are not even better this season. 

[scottiedawg]

I find it useful to be clear what criteria we're using.  If the criteria you're using is "Current Season Results" then there's no way you can put Transylvania in the top 10.  If instead your criteria is "who are the best teams" then there's absolutely a way to put Transylvania as high as #1.    The former criteria can be objective, and means teams are beholden to the "opportunity of their schedule."   The latter criteria is subjective (which doesn't make it bad, at all). In fact, it might make it more entertaining through debate.

[scottiedawg]

The D3Hoops poll (to my knowledge) doesn't dictate at all to its voters which criteria to use or how to weight them.  Which means that while we can of course debate the results of the poll, it's hard to say any voter's choices are patently "correct" or "incorrect"

The NCAA Tournament selection criteria, however, is known and must be adhered to by the committee. The specific relative weightings between the known criteria are not dictated or known, so there's some unknown there.

But the NCAA selection process is mostly based on "Current Season Results". There's no eye test there, no consideration of injury plus/minus, etc.

[Darryl Nester]

How They Fared (So Far)

Results from the past week, and what's coming up before the next poll.

Top 25

Rank	Pts	Team	W-L	Results
#1	620	New York University	8-0	12/29 vs. Stockton; 12/30 vs. #26 Bowdoin
#2	570	Transylvania	10-0	won at Manchester, 76-44; 12/29 vs. Wisconsin Lutheran; 12/30 vs. Berea
#3	568	Trinity (Texas)	11-0	def. #16 Mary Hardin-Baylor, 74-63; def. #20 Puget Sound, 78-69; 12/29 vs. Schreiner
#4	545	Christopher Newport	11-0	def. (n) T#29 Cortland, 89-49; 12/30 vs. Rowan
#5	512	Hope	9-1	12/29 vs. Carnegie Mellon; 12/30 vs. TBA
#6	496	Amherst	7-0	12/28 vs. Montclair State; 12/29 vs. Kenyon; 12/31 vs. Whittier; 01/01 at Chapman
#7	478	Scranton	10-0	def. (n) Wartburg, 59-37; def. (n) Rhodes, 76-51; 12/29 vs. George Fox; 12/30 vs. TBA
#8	463	Baldwin Wallace	9-0	12/29 vs. Manchester; 12/30 vs. TBA; 12/30 vs. TBA
#9	390	Babson	8-1	LOST to (n) Loras, 52-73; def. (n) Hanover, 66-65; 12/30 vs. Middlebury; 12/31 vs. Endicott
#10	359	Trine	9-2	def. (n) North Park, 65-51; def. (n) Wartburg, 60-56; 12/29 vs. #15 UW-Eau Claire; 12/30 vs. TBA
#11	356	Smith	8-1	12/30 vs. Bridgewater State; 12/31 vs. Mass-Dartmouth
#12	334	DeSales	10-0	won at Cabrini, 68-50; 12/30 vs. St. Joseph (Conn.); 12/31 vs. CCNY
#13	312	Springfield	9-1	12/30 vs. #28 Trinity (Conn.); 12/31 vs. Wilkes
#14	270	Chicago	10-0	12/30 vs. Knox
#15	263	UW-Eau Claire	9-2	12/29 vs. #10 Trine; 12/30 at DePauw
#16	228	Mary Hardin-Baylor	7-3	LOST at #3 Trinity (Texas), 63-74; LOST to (n) #20 Puget Sound, 58-59; 12/29 vs. Piedmont; 12/30 vs. #18 UC Santa Cruz
#17	202	Rochester	9-1	IDLE
#18	189	UC Santa Cruz	10-2	LOST to #21 UW-Whitewater, 60-61; def. Minnesota-Morris, 71-51; 12/29 vs. #34 East Texas Baptist; 12/30 at #16 Mary Hardin-Baylor; 01/01 at Concordia (Texas)
#19	188	Tufts	7-2	12/29 at T#31 Stevens; 12/30 vs. TBD; 01/01 at New Jersey City
#20	154	Puget Sound	9-2	def. (n) #16 Mary Hardin-Baylor, 59-58; LOST at #3 Trinity (Texas), 69-78
#21	130	UW-Whitewater	9-3	won at #18 UC Santa Cruz, 61-60; def. (n) Minnesota-Morris, 82-45; 12/30 vs. Bethel
#22	99	Hardin-Simmons	9-2	def. Texas-Dallas, 83-60; 12/29 vs. Bates; 12/30 vs. SUNY Geneseo
#23	98	Calvin	8-2	def. Cornerstone, 71-55; 12/29 at Loras, 12/30 vs. TBA
#24	52	Ithaca	6-2	IDLE
#25	44	Ohio Northern	8-1	12/29 vs. Denison; 12/30 vs. Bethany

Others receiving votes

Rank	Pts	Team	W-L	Results
#26	36	Bowdoin	7-1	12/29 vs. St. Joseph's (L.I.); 12/30 at #1 New York University
#27	26	Mary Washington	10-1	12/29 at Johns Hopkins; 12/31 vs. Shenandoah
#28	25	Trinity (Conn.)	9-1	12/30 at #13 Springfield; 12/31 vs. Skidmore
T#29	15	Cortland	9-2	LOST to (n) #4 Christopher Newport, 49-89; def. (n) Dickinson, 63-54
T#29	15	Emory	7-1	12/30 at Rhodes
T#31	14	Gustavus Adolphus	7-1	12/30 at Luther
T#31	14	Stevens	9-1	12/29 vs. #19 Tufts; 12/30 vs. TBD
#33	12	Whitman	6-4	12/28 vs. Cal Lutheran
#34	11	East Texas Baptist	8-2	12/29 vs. #18 UC Santa Cruz; 12/29 vs. TBA; 12/30 vs. TBA; 12/30 vs. Piedmont
T#35	9	Marymount	10-1	12/29 at Washington and Lee
T#35	9	Washington and Jefferson	10-1	won at Carnegie Mellon, 56-48; 12/29 vs. York (Pa.)
#37	6	UW-Oshkosh	7-3	LOST to (n) Randolph-Macon, 49-55; def. (n) Roanoke, 70-49; 12/29 vs. Washington U.; 12/30 vs. Ripon
#38	5	Catholic	10-2	def. Gwynedd Mercy, 76-40; def. Widener, 73-64
#39	4	Messiah	9-2	IDLE
#40	3	UW-River Falls	9-2	12/30 vs. Finlandia; 12/31 at UW-Superior
#41	1	UW-Stout	10-1	won at Dominican, 82-44; 12/29 vs. Ripon; 12/30 vs. Washington U.

[Augie2020]

Wow very surprised to see Amherst lose two out of 3!Never seen that coming especially against Chapman at 6-6.They should drop heavily in the polls.That is uncharectistic of a Gromacki team to lose two out of 3 anytime!

[gordonmann]

Yep, it is rare.

Amherst a very talented, but very young, team. Their most veteran player is a junior who has now played about 1.5 seasons when you take COVID out of the mix. I agree they should drop.

On the other side, Loras should pick up a lot of votes since the Duhawks have now beaten UW-Eau Claire, Babson and Calvin. The last two were by wide margins. Bowdoin should re-enter the Top 25, too. They played NYU down to the wire.

We'll see what the voters do.

Keep an eye on UMHB versus UC Santa Cruz today, which both teams need for the sake of their Top 25 positioning and at-large chances.

By the way, the poll will be released tomorrow instead of today at 6 pm. We pushed it back one day so folks didn't have to vote on New Year's Day.

[Augie2020]

Yes was watching that game (Bowdoin vs NYU )while at Steven's waiting for the Lady Royals vs Tufts game!I have to say if Tufts had Russell against NYU that game also would have been close!So Gordon as a voter like a game like Tufts vs NYU do you take that into consideration when voting when a player like Russell is not in the lineup?Because I agree with many on the Landmark page Tufts is way better then 19th.