Top 25 discussion

[David Collinge]

Unfortunately, I'm down in New Orleans for law school.

Nothing unfortunate about that!  Tell my old friend Ollie Houck I said hello. 

David Collinge
TLS '04

[David Collinge]

Top 25 Tournament Glance (UPDATED through Sweet Sixteen)

#   1   Bowdoin (29-1) def. Mt. Holyoke 74-57; def. Keene St. 77-52; def. #19 Rochester 63-53 at Scranton; plays #10 Mary Washington (29-2) Sat. at Scranton
#   2   Howard Payne (28-2) has first-round bye; def. Chapman 76-37; lost to Puget Sound 47-44  at Luther; season complete
#   3   Scranton (27-2) def. Lehman 64-43; def. Hamilton 58-52; lost to #10 Mary Washington 48-45; season complete
#   4   Messiah (26-3) def. Westminster (PA) 77-65; lost to Kean 89-84; season complete
#   5   Hope (24-4) lost to Denison 82-66 at DePauw; season complete
#   6   NYU (26-2) def. Ursinus 84-50; def. Gwynedd-Mercy 72-60; def. Simpson 76-58; hosts Kean (27-3) Sat.
#   7   Calvin (28-2) def. Thomas More 53-38 at Wilmington; won at #16 Wilmington 73-67; def. #8 Southern Maine 60-56 at Emmanuel; plays #9 DePauw (28-3) Sat. at Emmanuel
#   8   Southern Maine (27-3) def. Williams 68-62; def. Fitchburg St. 65-54; lost to #7 Calvin 60-56 at Emmanuel; season complete
#   9   DePauw (28-3) def. Transylvania 74-54; def. Denison 74-66; won at #13 Emmanuel 74-50; plays #7 Calvin (28-2) Sat. at Emmanuel
#   10   Mary Washington (29-2) def. Notre Dame (MD) 66-30; def. Christopher Newport 77-61; won at #3 Scranton 48-45; plays #1 Bowdoin (29-1) Sat.
#   11   Washington U. (23-5) def. Manchester 54-52 at Lake Forest; won at #14 Lake Forest 58-47; won at #25 Luther 59-58; plays Puget Sound (24-6) Sat. at Luther
#   12   McMurry (24-5) lost to Puget Sound 69-57 at George Fox; season complete
#   13   Emmanuel (29-2) def. Salve Regina 80-67; def. #17 Brandeis 71-66; lost to #9 DePauw 74-50; season complete
#   14   Lake Forest (24-3) def. Maryville (MO) 65-61; lost to #11 Washington U. 58-47; season complete
#   15   UW-Stout (23-6) lost to Simpson 91-86; season complete
#   16   Wilmington (25-5) def. Oglethorpe 76-54; lost to #7 Calvin 73-67; season complete
#   17   Brandeis (20-6) def. #21 Maine-Farmington 90-66 at Emmanuel; lost at #13 Emmanuel 71-66; season complete
#   18   Hardin-Simmons (21-5) season complete
#   19   Rochester (22-6) def. St. Lawrence 65-57 at Cortland St.; won at Cortland St. 68-51; lost to #1 Bowdoin 63-53 at Scranton; season complete
#   20   Medaille (23-5) lost at Cortland St. 72-67;season complete
#   21   Maine-Farmington (25-4) lost to #17 Brandeis 90-66 at Emmanuel; season complete
#   22   McDaniel (23-4) lost to William Paterson 69-61 at Randolph-Macon; season complete
#   23   Wheaton (IL) (20-8) def. St. Benedict 79-75 (2 OT) at UW-Stout; lost to Simpson 81-58 at UW-Stout; season complete
#   24   Illinois Wesleyan (22-6) lost to Carroll 86-59 at Luther; season complete
#   25   Luther (24-5) def. Concordia (WI) 72-51; def. Carroll 74-50; lost to #11 Washington U. 59-58; season complete

[GAVA]

Thanks David.

[GAVA]

Massey's Sweet 16 predictions:

#1 Bowdoin over #19 Rochester, 62-53
#10 Mary Washington over #3 Scranton, 62-58
#9 DePauw over #13 Emmanuel, 72-60
#7 Calvin over #8 Southern Maine, 69-59
#2 Howard Payne over Puget Sound, 62-48
#25 Luther over #11 Washington U, 56-55
Kean over Randolph-Macon, 75-72
#6 NYU over Simpson, 79-67

These predictions are based on last week's Massey ratings, i.e. the same games as used in the d3hoops.com week 13 poll.

6 for 8 !!!!

[Dark Knight]

Either Puget Sound is on an incredible roll or the ASC was seriously overrated by Massey. The latter could have happened because the ASC teams play so few outside teams.

A week ago Massey had 4 ASC teams in the top 7. After McMurry's loss, the four teams were in the top 16. With Howard Payne's early exit they'll drop further.

[jagluski]

Massey has the right margin, wrong winner.

Wash U defeats Luther 59-58.



Edited to have the right school Wash U beat.  I was thinking ahead!

[GAVA]

Massey has the right margin, wrong winner.

Wash U defeats Puget Sound 59-58.

[Dark Knight]

Massey was 1 out of 2 in picked upsets last night and is 6 of 9 in those reported here in the last two weeks. In two of the three cases where Massey picked an upset that didn't occur, Massey's prediction was off by only two points.

Think about that for a minute. You have to pick a couple of upsets to win a pick-em contest, but how often do those upsets actually happen?

---------------

Massey's upset specials for the elite 8:

#10 Mary Washington 60, #1 Bowdoin 54
#9 DePauw 65, #7 Calvin 60

[David Collinge]

Top 25 Tournament Glance (UPDATED through Sectionals)

#   1   Bowdoin (29-2)def. Mt. Holyoke 74-57; def. Keene St. 77-52; def. #19 Rochester 63-53 at Scranton; lost to #10 Mary Washington 63-59 at Scranton; season complete
#   2   Howard Payne (28-2) has first-round bye; def. Chapman 76-37; lost to Puget Sound 47-44  at Luther; season complete
#   3   Scranton (27-2) def. Lehman 64-43; def. Hamilton 58-52; lost to #10 Mary Washington 48-45; season complete
#   4   Messiah (26-3) def. Westminster (PA) 77-65; lost to Kean 89-84; season complete
#   5   Hope (24-4) lost to Denison 82-66 at DePauw; season complete
#   6   NYU (27-2) def. Ursinus 84-50; def. Gwynedd-Mercy 72-60; def. Simpson 76-58; def. Kean 76-64; plays #11 Washington U. (24-5) Fri. at Springfield, MA
#   7   Calvin (28-3) def. Thomas More 53-38 at Wilmington; won at #16 Wilmington 73-67; def. #8 Southern Maine 60-56 at Emmanuel; lost to #9 DePauw 74-61 at Emmanuel; season complete
#   8   Southern Maine (27-3) def. Williams 68-62; def. Fitchburg St. 65-54; lost to #7 Calvin 60-56 at Emmanuel; season complete
#   9   DePauw (29-3) def. Transylvania 74-54; def. Denison 74-66; won at #13 Emmanuel 74-50; def. #7 Calvin 74-61 at Emmanuel; plays #10 Mary Washington (30-2) Fri. at Springfield, MA
#   10   Mary Washington (30-2) def. Notre Dame (MD) 66-30; def. Christopher Newport 77-61; won at #3 Scranton 48-45; def. #1 Bowdoin 63-59; plays #9 DePauw (29-3) Fri. at Springfield, MA
#   11   Washington U. (24-5) def. Manchester 54-52 at Lake Forest; won at #14 Lake Forest 58-47; won at #25 Luther 59-58; def. Puget Sound 57-48 at Luther; plays #6 NYU (27-2) Fri. at Springfield, MA
#   12   McMurry (24-5) lost to Puget Sound 69-57 at George Fox; season complete
#   13   Emmanuel (29-2) def. Salve Regina 80-67; def. #17 Brandeis 71-66; lost to #9 DePauw 74-50; season complete
#   14   Lake Forest (24-3) def. Maryville (MO) 65-61; lost to #11 Washington U. 58-47; season complete
#   15   UW-Stout (23-6) lost to Simpson 91-86; season complete
#   16   Wilmington (25-5) def. Oglethorpe 76-54; lost to #7 Calvin 73-67; season complete
#   17   Brandeis (20-6) def. #21 Maine-Farmington 90-66 at Emmanuel; lost at #13 Emmanuel 71-66; season complete
#   18   Hardin-Simmons (21-5) season complete
#   19   Rochester (22-6) def. St. Lawrence 65-57 at Cortland St.; won at Cortland St. 68-51; lost to #1 Bowdoin 63-53 at Scranton; season complete
#   20   Medaille (23-5) lost at Cortland St. 72-67;season complete
#   21   Maine-Farmington (25-4) lost to #17 Brandeis 90-66 at Emmanuel; season complete
#   22   McDaniel (23-4) lost to William Paterson 69-61 at Randolph-Macon; season complete
#   23   Wheaton (IL) (20-8) def. St. Benedict 79-75 (2 OT) at UW-Stout; lost to Simpson 81-58 at UW-Stout; season complete
#   24   Illinois Wesleyan (22-6) lost to Carroll 86-59 at Luther; season complete
#   25   Luther (24-5) def. Concordia (WI) 72-51; def. Carroll 74-50; lost to #11 Washington U. 59-58; season complete

[TC HOOPS]

Now you can understand why I think the D-3 TOP 25 is a JOKE!!! Out of the TOP 5, not one of them are in the Final 4. You would NEVER see that happen in D1 mens or womens bracket. And its because NO one can possibly see all the teams play. You can watch all of Gwynedd Mercy's home games live on the computer, why don't more schools do that? Then you might be able to judge teams better if you actually seen them play.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Hey TC Hoop... two years ago... the best the Top 25 could do with the final four teams in the tournament was four out of the top six.

Interestingly enough four out of the top six teams made it.

Don't try and make a comparison to just one year's poll... and stop complaining. GMC's schedule is weak and they didn't deserve to be ranked anywhere in the Top 25 this season. They certainly played tough in the last five minutes of the game against NYU... but they were already losing by a lot... and now they are in the same place more than 400 women's teams are... home.

Be happy the WBCA decided to give GMC 14 points and the #25 slot in their latest poll. The same group that gave Chicago a #1 nod... days before Chicago began a slid that left them out of the tournament and actually out of the WBCA poll.

And comparing to D1... women or men? Because the top four teams NEVER make the final four slots in those tournaments... and if it was so reliable... then those brackets everyone fills out each March... would be EASY!

[TC HOOPS]

Dave "d Mac" McHugh - Did you read anything I wrote? Or did you start St Patty's day a little early?

I NEVER said anything about GMC being in the TOP 25, I already KNOW they should be. I said none of the TOP 5 made it to the final 4 and that you would never see that in D-1. I never said the Top 4 D-1 schools make the final 4. Find ONE year that not one of the TOP 5 made it to the final 4. Wow you said 2 years ago D-3 had 4 of the TOP 6 make it to the final 4, even a blind squirrel find's a nut sometimes.

And there you go AGAIN with an ignorant statement saying that GMC should not have been anywhere near the TOP 25. STOP with the not playing anyone, that's getting OLD. They ended up 26-3 and two of their losses were to Kean and NYU. Kean makes it to the final 8 and NYU could win it all. GMC played NYU right down to the final minutes, down 5 with 2 min left and missed a wide open 3. The reason they were down so much early was because of foul trouble, but AGAIN you wouldn't know that because you still haven't seen them play. Your right GMC is home for the season like 400 other teams, at least you got something right.

[atn alum]

TC

I wasn't going to respond to any of your commentary, but your calling the poll a "joke" is ill-informed on your part.

Our top 25 voters work very hard to make up for the fact that we don't get to see as many teams as some would like. I am in regular communication, on a weekly basis, with a number of well-respected coaches, who see a wide array of teams across the country, both in person and on film. I read a very significant number of game stories (well more than the average person who comes to the site) and I keep tabs on things as best I can from my locale of Connecticut. Every region is well-represented in our poll, so there are no biases on that end. There are A LOT of good teams out there. I understand that you're unhappy that your FAVORITE team is unranked, but let's be fair and admit that you're more biased on that subject than an impartial observer, like myself, or some of our other voters.

I talked to coaches and Gwynedd was mentioned within those conversations, information I took into account along with that from other coaches I spoke with. There are a LOT of good teams. I think our voters will consider that your team lost to Kean and NYU in a favorable light, with both of those teams going to the Elite 8.

Yes, there are certain aspects of the poll that are guesswork, but it is well-educated guesswork. Our voters are well-informed, hard-working SIDs, coaches and media members. We do the best we can with what we have to work with. We don't profess to be perfect by any means, but we try harder than you think to do a good job.

I think the poll did a great job. The #6, 9, 10 and 11 teams are playing for the championship, and there's no shame in that whatsoever on our end. Division III has parity and quality at the top. I'm not surprised that #10 beat #1, and #9 beat #7 on neutral floors in the Elite 8 (NYU and Wash U both beat unranked teams).

Your lack of respect for the poll is rather unfortunate. and if you're going to call us ill-informed, I think you need to think again.

[Pat Coleman]

Now you can understand why I think the D-3 TOP 25 is a JOKE!!! Out of the TOP 5, not one of them are in the Final 4. You would NEVER see that happen in D1 mens or womens bracket. And its because NO one can possibly see all the teams play. You can watch all of Gwynedd Mercy's home games live on the computer, why don't more schools do that? Then you might be able to judge teams better if you actually seen them play.

Nah, I don't understand it at all. You seem to have no sense of reality in Division III.

In your precious Division I example, top seeds are protected, they don't play good teams in the early rounds and they don't usually get sent 1,000 miles to play in the Sweet 16.

If we had a Division I bracket and had Tennessee in the Final Four every year then yeah, it would be easy. But we don't have the dominance of Division I. And thank goodness for that, because it keeps whiners like you interested in Division III.

[Dark Knight]

Now you can understand why I think the D-3 TOP 25 is a JOKE!!! Out of the TOP 5, not one of them are in the Final 4

TC,

Perhaps you'd like Massey's ratings better. Three of Massey's top 5 are in the final 4, and the fourth is #11 according to Massey. There's no possibility of bias because it's just a computer crunching game scores.

Let's see here. d3hoops.com has GM at [#42], Massey has them as an 11.3-point underdog to NYU, which puts them at...#44.

Maybe you don't want a poll that's not a "joke" after all.