Bumblin' B's

[chapdog]

POOL B             reg. rec.(%)   QoWI     Common Opp.   Head-head    -vs Ranked
1. Wash & Jeff  18-4 (.818)     9.818        none               none                none
2. Maryville       21-4 (.826)     9.28          none               none                none
3. Rockford       19-6 (.760)     8.88          none               none                none
4. Chapman     11-4 (.733)     9.133        none               none                 none


Sorry -
Piedmont       17-6 (.739)     8.78
Thomas More 17-6 (.739)     8.78

[Ralph Turner]

d3d3, I am awaiting the final QOWI.

Your selections look interesting.

[Pat Coleman]

QOWI THROUGH SATURDAY:

1-10
DePauw     12.300     20-0
Bowdoin    12.273    20-2
Scranton    11.905    21-0
Southern Maine    11.846    25-1
Washington U.    11.684    17-2
Messiah    11.500    21-1
Randolph-Macon    11.304    22-1
Brandeis    11.217    19-4
Hope    11.208    23-1
Pacific Lutheran    11.158    17-2
               
11-20
Mary Washington    11.125    23-1
Bates    11.087    18-5
Baldwin-Wallace    11.042    22-2
Williams    10.957    18-5
St. John Fisher    10.880    23-2
Capital    10.875    21-3
Muhlenberg    10.846    24-2
Rochester    10.750    18-6
Carroll    10.727    18-4
Richard Stockton    10.640    21-4
               
21-30
Wesleyan    10.565    18-5
Gwynedd-Mercy    10.538    23-3
Wheaton (Ill.)    10.524    18-3
William Smith    10.522    19-4
Medaille    10.500    23-1
Mount St. Mary    10.385    23-3
Maine-Farmington    10.370    23-4
Colby-Sawyer    10.370    23-4
McMurry    10.360    23-2
Puget Sound    10.348    19-4
               
31-40
Cortland State    10.346    22-4
Norwich    10.304    20-3
Greensboro    10.286    18-3
Oglethorpe    10.250    19-5
Bridgewater (Va.)    10.250    22-6
Salem State    10.167    20-4
Concordia-Moorhead    10.160    20-5
New York University    10.120    18-7
Baruch    10.087    19-4
Springfield    10.080    19-6
               
41-50
St. Benedict    10.043    19-4
Johns Hopkins    10.000    18-4
St. Lawrence    10.000    19-5
New Jersey    9.960    18-7
UW-Stout    9.955    17-5
Maryville (Mo.)    9.941    17-0
Emmanuel    9.917    19-5
Illinois Wesleyan    9.913    16-7
Trinity (Texas)    9.895    15-4
Simpson    9.895    18-1

51-60
St. Norbert    9.870    16-7
Moravian    9.840    19-6
Maine Maritime    9.815    22-5
Oswego State    9.800    20-5
Wittenberg    9.750    17-7
Mount Holyoke    9.696    18-5
Ripon    9.682    14-8
UW-Oshkosh    9.667    17-7
Lawrence    9.650    15-5
Cal Lutheran    9.632    15-4

61-70
Eastern Connecticut    9.630    20-7
Union    9.600    17-8
Western New England    9.583    18-6
UW-Stevens Point    9.560    17-8
Howard Payne    9.560    21-4
Franklin    9.560    21-4
Chicago    9.545    14-8
Calvin    9.500    15-3
Wilmington    9.481    19-8
Claremont-Mudd-Scripps    9.474    15-4

71-80
McDaniel    9.462    19-7
Washington and Jefferson    9.455    18-4
Dickinson    9.440    18-7
Otterbein    9.440    17-8
Luther    9.429    17-4
Montclair State    9.417    16-8
Chapman    9.400    11-4
Marymount    9.391    16-7
Gustavus Adolphus    9.385    19-7
Catholic    9.320    17-8

81-90
UW-La Crosse    9.318    14-8
Denison    9.304    18-5
Emory    9.286    11-10
Maryville (Tenn.)    9.280    21-4
Hardin-Simmons    9.250    19-5
Texas-Tyler    9.227    17-5
Kenyon    9.217    17-6
DeSales    9.185    16-11
Christopher Newport    9.182    14-8
Virginia Wesleyan    9.182    15-7

91-100
Endicott    9.154    16-10
Clark    9.120    16-9
Mississippi College    9.120    19-6
Carleton    9.120    17-8
Salve Regina    9.111    19-8
Wesley    9.087    17-6
SUNY-Farmingdale    9.083    15-9
Worcester State    9.083    15-9
William Paterson    9.080    15-10
Hood    9.050    14-6

101-110
Lakeland    9.043    17-6
Nebraska Wesleyan    9.000    3-3
Rhodes    9.000    15-7
Pitt-Greensburg    9.000    18-6
Millikin    9.000    14-8
George Fox    9.000    11-6
Oneonta State    8.958    17-7
Bridgewater State    8.913    16-7
Keuka    8.900    13-7
Rockford    8.880    19-6

111-120
Keene State    8.833    15-9
Middlebury    8.818    13-9
Geneseo State    8.818    14-8
RPI    8.818    13-9
Nichols    8.792    18-6
Piedmont    8.783    17-6
Fredonia State    8.720    16-9
Concordia (Wis.)    8.720    18-7
UW-Eau Claire    8.696    12-11
Thomas More    8.696    17-6

[Pat Coleman]

I believe I have the same four Bs as chapdog.

[d3d3]

What is with Nebraska Wesleyan??  Why are they even being considered?  Also, I am suprised how far Thomas More dropped after the loss to Wash & Jeff, who is a very good team.  What about VJC and Baptist BC, they finished the season with a good record and good region record?

[d3d3]

I have 3 locks:

Wash & Jeff
Maryville (Tenn)
Chapman

Other left for 1 spot:
Piedmont
Thomas More
Rockford
VJC
Philly Bible

These 5 contenders--records of opponents they lost to:
Thomas More (159-53)
Piedmont (105-58)
VJC (123-63)
Philly Bible (103-72)
Rockford (83-74)

[Pat Coleman]

Records of opponents lost to is not one of the criteria.

[chapdog]

d3d3 -

You must understand the primary criteria if you want to project what the NCAA will decide. The records of opponents teams lose to is not one of the criteria. QoWI is the way a team's wins and losses are considered, so I guess in a way that is already taken into account.

The primary criteria - All 5 are considered, with none being more important (supposedly), although the committee seems to lean heavily on regional record

1. Regional record
2. QoWI
3. Head-to-Head
4. Record -vs- Common In-Region opponents
5. In Region results vs regionally ranked teams

With that said, I think all four are a lock -
1. Wash and Jeff
2. Maryville
3. Chapman
4. Rockford

[d3d3]

I understand the criteria, but I think the last spot is close.  Do you not think it is close? 

[chapdog]

Oh, the last two spots are close, but it is also clear. Chapman and Rockford are clearly ahead of the others, based on the criteria. The NCAA will stick to their system, in my opinion.  They have eliminated 'lobbying' for teams by setting the criteria - they could almost have a computer spit out the selections this way - right or wrong; agree or disagree; this is how they operate.

For this reason, this is why Pat and his crew are almost exactly 'on' every year with their projections. They understand the criteria and how the teams are evaluated. I'm also pretty sure they don't believe that all the 'right teams' are selected, but they understand the NCAA 'system' and can crunch the numbers.

[Ralph Turner]

Oh, the last two spots are close, but it is also clear. Chapman and Rockford are clearly ahead of the others, based on the criteria. The NCAA will stick to their system, in my opinion.  They have eliminated 'lobbying' for teams by setting the criteria - they could almost have a computer spit out the selections this way - right or wrong; agree or disagree; this is how they operate.

For this reason, this is why Pat and his crew are almost exactly 'on' every year with their projections. They understand the criteria and how the teams are evaluated. I'm also pretty sure they don't believe that all the 'right teams' are selected, but they understand the NCAA 'system' and can crunch the numbers.

Plus 1,  Chapdog!

[Pat Coleman]

For this reason, this is why Pat and his crew are almost exactly 'on' every year with their projections. They understand the criteria and how the teams are evaluated. I'm also pretty sure they don't believe that all the 'right teams' are selected, but they understand the NCAA 'system' and can crunch the numbers.

I agree. These are not always the teams we would have chosen, but we are trying to replicate their process.

Today numbers:

1-10
DePauw     12.429     21-0
Bowdoin    12.391    21-2
Scranton    11.905    21-0
Southern Maine    11.846    25-1
Washington U.    11.684    17-2
Messiah    11.500    21-1
Randolph-Macon    11.304    22-1
Brandeis    11.217    19-4
Hope    11.208    23-1
Pacific Lutheran    11.158    17-2
               
11-20
Mary Washington    11.125    23-1
Baldwin-Wallace    11.042    22-2
Muhlenberg    10.963    25-2
Williams    10.957    18-5
St. John Fisher    10.880    23-2
Capital    10.875    21-3
Bates    10.875    18-6
Rochester    10.750    18-6
Carroll    10.727    18-4
Richard Stockton    10.640    21-4
               
21-30
Wesleyan    10.565    18-5
Gwynedd-Mercy    10.538    23-3
Wheaton (Ill.)    10.524    18-3
William Smith    10.522    19-4
Medaille    10.500    23-1
McMurry    10.385    24-2
Mount St. Mary    10.385    23-3
Maine-Farmington    10.370    23-4
Colby-Sawyer    10.370    23-4
Puget Sound    10.348    19-4
               
31-40
Cortland State    10.346    22-4
Norwich    10.304    20-3
Greensboro    10.286    18-3
Bridgewater (Va.)    10.250    22-6
Oglethorpe    10.250    19-5
Springfield    10.231    20-6
Salem State    10.167    20-4
Concordia-Moorhead    10.160    20-5
New York University    10.120    18-7
Baruch    10.087    19-4

41-50
St. Benedict    10.043    19-4
St. Lawrence    10.000    19-5
New Jersey    9.960    18-7
UW-Stout    9.955    17-5
Maryville (Mo.)    9.941    17-0
Emmanuel    9.917    19-5
Illinois Wesleyan    9.913    16-7
Simpson    9.895    18-1
St. Norbert    9.870    16-7
Johns Hopkins    9.870    18-5

51-60
Moravian    9.840    19-6
Maine Maritime    9.815    22-5
Oswego State    9.800    20-5
Trinity (Texas)    9.750    15-5
Wittenberg    9.750    17-7
Ripon    9.682    14-8
UW-Oshkosh    9.667    17-7
Lawrence    9.650    15-5
Cal Lutheran    9.632    15-4
Eastern Connecticut    9.630    20-7

61-70
Union    9.600    17-8
Western New England    9.583    18-6
Mount Holyoke    9.583    18-6
UW-Stevens Point    9.560    17-8
Howard Payne    9.560    21-4
Chicago    9.545    14-8
Calvin    9.500    15-3
Wilmington    9.481    19-8
Claremont-Mudd-Scripps    9.474    15-4
McDaniel    9.462    19-7

71-80
Franklin    9.458    21-4
Washington and Jefferson    9.455    18-4
Otterbein    9.440    17-8
Dickinson    9.440    18-7
Luther    9.429    17-4
Montclair State    9.417    16-8
Chapman    9.400    11-4
Marymount    9.391    16-7
Gustavus Adolphus    9.385    19-7
Catholic    9.320    17-8

81-90
UW-La Crosse    9.318    14-8
Denison    9.304    18-5
Emory    9.286    11-10
Maryville (Tenn.)    9.280    21-4
Hardin-Simmons    9.250    19-5
Texas-Tyler    9.227    17-5
Kenyon    9.217    17-6
DeSales    9.185    16-11
Christopher Newport    9.182    14-8
Virginia Wesleyan    9.182    15-7

91-100
Endicott    9.154    16-10
Clark    9.120    16-9
Carleton    9.120    17-8
Mississippi College    9.120    19-6
Salve Regina    9.111    19-8
Wesley    9.087    17-6
SUNY-Farmingdale    9.083    15-9
Worcester State    9.083    15-9
William Paterson    9.080    15-10
Hood    9.050    14-6

[Ralph Turner]

The Maryville TN Daily Times reports that the GSAC will move to Pool A status for the 2006-07 season in all sports.  The conference has 8 members.  So we will probably see the Pool B bid allocated for those 8 members moved to Pool A.

Maryville TN has gotten the Pool B bid most years in the past, but the conference has a post-season tourney.   Last year, the Huntingdon men won the GSAC tourney, but it was not enough to earn the Pool B bid.

We also need to look for the status of the North Eastern AC (NEAC) to move as well for the 2006-07 season.

The Presidents AC schools will be eligible to move to Pool A in 2007-08.

The addition of Colorado College to the SCAC also drops the number in the Pool B allocation ratio numerator in 2007-08.  The status of the "Interstate 8" will impact Pool B during its first 2 years as well, 2007-08 and 2008-09.

[Ralph Turner]

The 2007 Women's Basketball Handbook is out!

There are 4 Pool B bids to be awarded this year.

The Great South AC has moved to Pool A.  The members of the former Lake Michigan Conference are now in Pool B.  We anticipate that the Northern Athletics Conference will move to Pool A in the 2008-09 season.  This is likely the last year for the Presidents AC to be a member of Pool B.

There are 39 Pool A (Automatic Qualifiying) Conferences. There will be 20 Pool C bids given.

[Ralph Turner]

This is a preliminary look at the Pool B contenders for the women.  The women have not had any teams break away from the pack.  Thomas More and Concordia are off to the best starts.

School/Conference/Overall/In-Region/Percentage

Thomas More ---    PresAC    --  7-1/6-1  --  .857
CorcordiaWI   ---    NathCon --  4-1/3-1  --  .750
UDallas          ---     Ind        --   5-4/4-3  --   .571
Chapman       ---     Ind         --  6-4/5-4  --  .556

This list is very incomplete.  With UDallas and Chapman hovering around .500, it is possible for another team to move up in conference play.

Remember there are 4 Pool B bids.

(The GSAC has a Pool A bid this year.  The NCAA website is down, as its server is being maintained.)