Pool C

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

I don't see the Skyline getting a second bid no matter how it breaks. SUNYAC being two bids, maybe, but only if Geneseo wins I think. Liberty two bids ... I need to look at that.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

The new NCAA Division III women's basketball regional rankings are posted: https://www.d3hoops.com/notables/2019/02/women-regional-rankings-third

[Caz Bombers]

Pending bid thieves this week, here are the 20 at-large bids I came up with based on eyeballing record, SOS and vRRO against each other. I admit I did not dive into schedules to see who beat who (whom beat whom?)

Chicago, Amherst, Tufts, RIT, Hope, Baldwin Wallace, Vassar, Illinois Wesleyan, UW-Whitewater, Johns Hopkins, Smith, Middlebury, UW-La Crosse, Loras, Marymount, Emory & Henry, UT Dallas, Oglethorpe, Emory, Geneseo.

Looking a little closer into the Empire State, I'm cautiously optimistic for New Paltz and Ithaca if things go wrong this weekend, markedly less so for Hartwick and yes, a quick goodbye to the dream of a two-bid Skyline.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

There are just days left in the regular season and conference tournaments are in full throat. And those vying to get into the NCAA Tournament are already sitting on the proverbial "bubble."

There are two ways to keep dancing in March, either win the conference automatic qualifier (i.e. tournament in most cases) or hope one's resume is good enough to be selected. However, with upsets in conference tournaments come some nervous times for those needing the at-large avenue.

Some teams are already on the bubble, but are they in trouble?

On Thursday's Hoopsville, Dave brings in guests who either have already lost or may need to win. We also enjoy the thrill of victory. And hear from a coach in charge of off-season workouts and practices at her institution. What goes into such a job as most teams start to make the transition to next season.

Hoopsville is presented by D3hoops.com and airs from the WBCA/NABC Studio. Thursday's show can be seen LIVE starting at 7:00 p.m. ET right here: http://bit.ly/2NhkfYn (or via Facebook Live and Periscope simulcasts).

If you have questions about Division III basketball, feel free to send them and we will answer them on a the show. Email them to dave.mchugh@d3sports.com or use any of the social media options to the right.

Guests Schedule (order subject to change):
- Cameron Hill, Trinity (Texas) women's coach
- Kristin Karat, Cedar Crest women's coach & Assistant Director for Athletic Performance (WBCA Center Court)
- Jeff Brown, Middlebury men's coach

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[Caz Bombers]

top seeds Babson and Smith both lose at home in the NEWMAC semifinals to MIT and Springfield respectively.

Babson was obliterated by 27 points with the same number of turnovers and will be squarely on the knife edge of the bubble. I initially had Smith as a mid-proceedings Pool C selection but I'm not so sure anymore.

6) Kean at 4) Rutgers-Newark for the 1-bid NJAC title. That league has slipped hard this year, wow.

Look out for Ohio Northern as a bid thief. Back to back road OAC tourney upsets over BW and Marietta.

[deiscanton]

 My guess as to the pecking order of the top 4 teams from the Northeast to go to the selection table-- assuming that Bowdoin and St Joe's Maine get AQs:

1.)  Amherst
2.)  Tufts
3.)  Middlebury (#5 in final NE rankings on Monday)
4.). Smith (#6 in final NE rankings on Monday)
5.). MIT (#7-- assuming that Springfield wins AQ). 

MIT may win on Saturday and not need a Pool C.

Middlebury has head to head win over Smith and is 1-0 vs Springfield (common opponent with Smith.  Middlebury also plays regionally ranked Bowdoin on Saturday. (#1 in Northeast).

[Caz Bombers]

Agree - I think Midd's win over Trinity in the NESCAC quarters ties off the league nicely at 4 bids. I see the Bants as close but no cigar.

[gordonmann]

Sad but true. That was their play-in game for the NCAA Tournament and they didn't win it.

[7express]

Anyone have thoughts on the women's Pool C landscape heading into conference tournament week? Luckily the B picture is the easiest decision in the history of the tournament thanks to 25-0 Thomas More's last ride.

In the NE: The duo of: Bowdoin/Amherst/Tufts that DO NOT win the NESCAC pool A will be pool C teams, the first 2 teams selected from the Northeast, and if the Tufts/Amherst winner tomorrow ends up winning the pool A on Sunday, that games loser & Bowdoin could very well be the first 2 teams selected overall.
St. Joseph's (ME) currently unbeaten is likely a tournament team regardless of whatever happens this weekend.  They are higher ranked than the Albertus men's teams were, but that would be a bad loss.  I don't think it would keep them out, but they may be sweating for a while.  Smith (#5) and Babson (#7) both lost in the NEWMAC semifinals with Smith losing to 10th ranked MIT which I think makes the NEWMAC a 1 bid league.
Middlebury (#6) beat #9 Trinity in the NESCAC quarterfinals and now play #1 Bowdoin.  Even if they win the Bowdoin game I think the overall high number of losses (7) keeps them out.  Trinity is done.
The last conference on here is the LEC: Mass-Boston (#12) just finished the season losing in the conference quarterfinals, has lost 3 straight, and ended the year losers of 5 of their last 7; they are done.  The championship game will be between Eastern Connecticut (#11) and Mass-Dartmouth (#8).  Whoever wins that game is likely the only team in the field out of the conference  as the loser would just be too far back in my opinion.
So, my recap of the Pool C landscape in the Northeast: 2 guaranteed Pool C bids (Tufts, Amherst, Bowdoin duo), and a 3rd bid should the Joes Monks lose in the GNAC championship game.  I believe the region will get at least a 3rd bid regardless: My guess is Middlebury would be first up (they get in if Joes wins the GNAC pool A), than Smith would be next followed by Dartmouth (should they lose), but I don't see anyone over that first team getting a bid.

[Caz Bombers]

I'm not certain at all that St Joe's Maine would get in if they lose in the GNAC tournament, brutal as that may sound.

Their profile is totally empty except for the -0 in the loss column. 0-0 record against RROs. .504 strength of schedule entering the week. That's disqualifyingly low for a Pool C bid based on the other teams in regional rankings around the country.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

The women's committee tends to favor the WL% a slight bit more than the men or prognosticators. I think that is why St. Joe's has been relatively high in the regional rankings.

Also, in the past we have selected teams with other data seeming to give the advantage and the committee has gone with the better record.

Not sure if that continues, but something to chew on.

[Caz Bombers]

Top two seeds Guilford and E&H both lost in the ODAC tournament. That could be great news for bubble teams elsewhere in the country as despite a gaudy record, Emory & Henry in particular may have just played its way out of the Field of 64.

[7express]

That's why I said they would be sweating.  They were still #4 in the region even with the bad numbers, and would've made the conference championship game while both Smith & Babson lost in the semifinals of their conference tournament.  If the Monks were 7th or lower I would agree they would need a win to get in, but I think sitting at #4 this week they'll ultimately get into the dance even if it's late in the process.  By rounds 17 or 18, assuming Mid doesn't block them and the rest of the region, that winning percentage is going to stand out over the other teams at the table, SOS be dammed.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

I wouldn't say that about E&H. They were pretty high up in the South Regional Rankings. They will get to the table and their SOS was .529. It is now .540 (subject to still change).

I think they still get in.

[deiscanton]

St Joe's Maine needs a Pool C.  Despite the lack of results v RRO, I think the Monks wil get in.  They have a common opponent with Pool C candidate Chicago in Husson.  The Monks beat Husson this year, while Husson beat Chicago by 5 on a neutral floor.  That, plus the winning pct, should get the Monks in.