Pool C

[scottiedawg]

Redlands is an interesting one, do they steal a Pool C bid or are they on the outside looking in now?

When I say "Pool C teams" I mean = "The top 20 teams after predicting Pool As"

I have Redlands near the bottom of Pool C teams. So them losing could absolutely be a Bid Thief situation as I think Redlands is definitely in the running for a Pool C bid.

Elizabethtown and York are right above them. Babson, Shenandoah, Washington & Lee, and Carroll are right below them.

The Redlands loss is not good for these teams (in order):
Washington & Lee
Carroll
UC Santa Cruz
Husson
St. Lawrence
St. Joseph's ME
S Virginia
Gust Adolphus
Stevens
Hartwick
SUNY New Paltz
Hardin-Simmons
Puget Sound
Widener
Piedmont
Bethany Lutheram

[Baldini]

Sorry scottie but that is not how it works; Redlands loss has no effect on Hardin-Simmons.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Sorry scottie but that is not how it works; Redlands loss has no effect on Hardin-Simmons.

It does if Redlands gets the Pool C bid that might otherwise go to Hardin-Simmons.

[Baldini]

Sorry scottie but that is not how it works; Redlands loss has no effect on Hardin-Simmons.

It does if Redlands gets the Pool C bid that might otherwise go to Hardin-Simmons.

Well, that can't happen Ryan when Hardin-Simmons is ahead of Redlands in the regional rankings.

[scottiedawg]

Sorry scottie but that is not how it works; Redlands loss has no effect on Hardin-Simmons.

It does if Redlands gets the Pool C bid that might otherwise go to Hardin-Simmons.

Well, that can't happen Ryan when Hardin-Simmons is ahead of Redlands in the regional rankings.

If

[scottiedawg]

Though updating my data based off last night, AND tweaking my model a bit, and Redlands actually looks to be below even the bubble.

With HSU starting this week already ahead of Redlands in the rankings, and with Redlands losing, I agree baldini, that it's unlikely Redlands ends up higher in the regional rankings, and thus will get to the table behind HSU.

Redlands
0.826 WP
0.502 SOS
1-1 v RRO

Hardin-Simmons
0.826 WP
0.527 WP
1-4 v RRO

these teams are soooo close.

I imagine even if HSU loses to ETBU, that HSU will stay ahead of Redlands in the rankings.

[scottiedawg]

What I'm basically doing is trying to fit my model to reflect the regional rankings. Assuming that the regional rankings indicate how we should be expecting the committee to value teams on Monday.  (I should run a regression)

I am stumped in Region 10 though. My model puts Trinity 10th in the region, while the rankings have them 4th. In general, the regional rankings do not indicate that the committee likes high WP / very low SOS resumes.

I guess Rhodes, Trinity, and Emmanuel all have WP > 0.920, SOS < 0.484 and < 2 wins v RRO, and all are ranked favorably in their regions. Maybe the committee will jump you up as long as you have at least 1 win v RRO?  Cause Webster and Greensboro have very similar WP/SOS, but ZERO wins v RRO.

It's interesting. The criteria are definitely not being used in a linear way. It appears there are "tiers/thresholds" for each WP, SOS, wins v RRO.

[scottiedawg]

St. Lawrence being unranked in Region 03 and Trinity Texas being 4th in Region 10 doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. Yes, Trinity's resume is better than St. Lawrence's. But the gap seems small enough, that, based on how I infer the criteria being valued in all regions, that I would've expected St. Lawrence to squeeze into the rankings at the bottom of Region 03, and would've expected Trinity to be behind at least 1-2 of these teams: UC Santa Cruz, Redlands, Pacific, HSU.

I feel similarly about Rhodes. I would've expected them to be below at least 1-2 of these teams: Berea, Washington & Lee, Mary Washington, Emory, Shenandoah.

Seems like if (a) your WP is very high, (b) you have at least 1 win v RRO, (c) your region is weak, you can get pushed waaaaaay up your region's rankings, even if your SOS is < 0.485.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

The women's committee has always favored winning percentage much more than the men.  They've also traditionally refused to penalize teams for playing in weak conferences.

[ronk]

The women's committee has always favored winning percentage much more than the men.  They've also traditionally refused to penalize teams for playing in weak conferences.

Why is that? Do they agree with your perception? Do the chairs justify the difference in their respective stances?
I don't understand why there is a significant difference in the application of the criteria between the 2 genders

[scottiedawg]

The women's committee has always favored winning percentage much more than the men.  They've also traditionally refused to penalize teams for playing in weak conferences.

Totally. And I'm absolutely seeing that in the rankings.

BUT, that doesn't really stay consistent with say, Mary Washington. You'd think they'd put a +0.120 WP Roanoke over them, but they're clearly putting some weight on SOS and vRRO. Eau Claire and Bates are also ranked pretty favorably for having a relatively low WP among ranked teams.

So I'm trying to look at all those resumes, the regional rankings, and parse out what that might mean for selection/"seeding".

[scottiedawg]

I guess no team with a WP < 0.700 is ranked in the top 3 in their region. So maybe not as inconsistent as I first thought.

[scottiedawg]

They've also traditionally refused to penalize teams for playing in weak conferences.

Does that mean treating teams from weaker conferences differently? As in, looking the other way on a weaker SOS or sparse v RRO record? Or just simply weighting SOS lower than the men's committee might?

[scottiedawg]

Conference Tourney "Upsets" (I just eyeballed these)

AEC
Marymount VA

CCC
U New England

E8
Utica

HCAC
Hanover

LL
Skidmore

MIAA
Albion

MWC
Cornell

NAC
ME Maritime

NECC
Eastern Nazarene

NJAC
Kean
Rowan
Montclair St.

SCIAC
Redlands


I don't see a single Bid Thief yet though. Redlands has the best resume of teams that we might've expected to still be alive in their conference tourneys. (If I seem inconsistent with my earlier thoughts on Redlands, I am! I looked more into the regional rankings, tweaked my model, and think Redlands is only on the Pool C bubble, versus definitely in the top 20 Pool C teams).

I don't think any of these are even on the bubble:
Redlands
ME Maritime
Kean
U New England
Marymount VA
Rowan
Albion
Utica
Montclair St.

[MrMaus]

The top half of my list is "over rated" in the Regional Rankings (IMHO). What they have in common is a win over a RR opponent, mostly 3 or 4 games against RR opponents and SoS between .475 and .500 ... AND they are winning their conference. I think I need to weight the fact that they are winning their conference more than I do as I think the committee is saying they can't do much about the conference SoS, other than win the damn conference.

Team                       RR    Win %    RR Win %    # RR Games       SoS
Roger Williams           3      92%         50%                 2              0.500
Wisconsin Lutheran    2       95%          100%                3              0.487
Emmanuel                 3       96%        75%                 4              0.483
Trinity (Texas)           4        92%        33%                 3              0.483
Rhodes                     2        90%        50%                 4              0.482
Immaculata                        65%         50%                2              0.479
Washington and Jeff            81%          0%                 1              0.475
Penn State-Behrend            83%           0%                1              0.474
Clarks Summit                    82%           0%                1              0.471
Brooklyn                    7       86%          0%                3              0.458
Framingham State      9       87%         50%                2             0.453
Webster                             100%     #DIV/0!             0              0.449
Greensboro                        95%           50%              2              0.446
Gallaudet                           65%             0%              1              0.439
New England College   7      71%            0%               3              0.430