Pool C

[scottiedawg]

MHB men are hosting.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Christopher Newport men also hosting sending the ladies on the road this weekend.

[scottiedawg]

DePauw's pod is a rough pod.

I think that bottom left quadrant might end up being the strongest one.

[scottiedawg]

Hardest Pods:
DePauw
Millikin

Easiest Pods:
S Virginia

not sure another pod is that close, maybe the Mary Hardin-Baylor one?


Quadrant Difficulties:
Top Right
Bottom Left
Bottom Right
Top Left (makes sense, CNU is the #1 seed)

Side Difficulties:
I think right side, narrowly

[gordonmann]

After agonizing over at-large mock selections for more than two decades, I've finally cracked the code.

The best way for me to pick at-large selections is to just let Scott do it.

Nice work.

[scottiedawg]

After agonizing over at-large mock selections for more than two decades, I've finally cracked the code.

The best way for me to pick at-large selections is to just let Scott do it.

Nice work.

Thanks!

I'm guessing my prediction of St. Lawrence to 5th in Region 03 was wholly incorrect.

I bet the committee kept Hartwick above them.

Even so I would've taken allll these teams over W&L at that final table:
WPI
Trinity
Stevens
Widener
Redlands

[ronk]

 Should be an addition made to the criteria that would have caused UCSC to be selected; maybe someone can come up with what that could be. The eyetest and quality of teams played plus how they did against those teams suggests that.

[scottiedawg]

WPI
0.792 WP
0.538 SOS
2-5 RRO (Bates, Trinity CT)

Washington & Lee
0.769 WP
0.519 SOS
3-4 RRO (Mary Washington, Shenandoah, Roanoke )

W&L is worse across the board right?

[scottiedawg]

Should be an addition made to the criteria that would have caused UCSC to be selected; maybe someone can come up with what that could be. The eyetest and quality of teams played plus how they did against those teams suggests that.

eyetest will never be part of the criteria.

I agree though, UCSC totally passed that test. Not sure I watched 20 teams that looked better than them this year.

Relatively valuing WP less and SOS more would have pushed UCSC up the board. It likely would've had them above Redlands in the 2nd regional rankings (and potentially over Trinity TX too), which would've brought them to our prediction table for the final 8 rounds.

The tough thing for UCSC is scheduling. 9-4 vs D3 opponents. 10-4 moves them from 0.692 WP to 0.714 and I think we're having a much different discussion. 10-3 and they're at 0.769 and off the Pool C board maybe 8th??

Unfortunately for them, being isolated geographically means so few games and a razor thin margin. They couldn't lose that 3rd game. (and we all know that probably 2/3 of the Pool C teams are also going 0-3 against Tufts, CNU, CNU).

And listening to their coach on Hoopsville, that Tufts loss was so unfortunate, due to Covid losses. They might not have won with a full team, but they had such a razor thin margin.

Man, 10-3 with a win over either Tufts or CNU and now 5-3 RRO? That's a SPARKLING resume, even under how the committee currently values WP so highly.

on the flipside, playing so few games is ALSO what allowed their SOS to be so darn high. Throw in 3 games against 500 teams, and it doesn't look like such a sparkling outlier.

[Baldini]

* At first, I put Cortland ahead of Salisbury but going to switch those two. The last few are still very much in danger of Sunday upsets.

The last spot in this trial run came with St. Joseph's (Maine), WPI, Cortland, Stevens, Salisbury, Washington & Lee, Otterbein, Carroll, Loras and Redlands on the table for the last pick and I went with Salisbury.

Region 1 - Amherst, Tufts, Trinity (Conn.) (3)

Region 2 - Springfield, Babson (2)

Region 3 - (0)

Region 4 - (0)

Region 5 - Johns Hopkins, Catholic, Elizabethtown, Salisbury (4)

Region 6 - (0)

Region 7 - Trine, DePauw, John Carroll, Marietta (4)

Region 8 - Millikin (1)

Region 9 - UW-WW, Wartburg, UW-Oshkosh (3)

Region 10 - MHBU, East Texas Baptist, UC-Santa Cruz (3)

End up 18 of 20. Had Cortland originally in but at the cost of Salisbury, so I would have been 18 of 20 either way. Just never could have gotten Washington & Lee in over some of the others on the table. Win some, lose some.

[Baldini]

Unless I'm missing one, looks like 2 flights with both Whitman and Whitter headed to Hardin-Simmons. As Ryan noted this allowed for more flexibility and it appears they were a bit more creative with it. Like the overall bracket.

[scottiedawg]

While I am surprised W&L and Mary Washington stayed at 3 and 4 in Region 6 (they actually moved up to 2 and 3--we #gleaned poorly), Southern Virginia and Shenandoah were right behind them at 5 and 6, and both those teams had Pool As, so whether W&L was 3,4,5, they were going to be at the table.

Even so, I just don't get how they were picked.

I sure hope it wasn't because they were the highest regionally ranked team at the table. That's not a criteria.
(Update: This is the only explanation I can come up with. Would love to know more.)

[scottiedawg]

Unlikely it was that. Stevens was a 3 too. I think they have a batter resume as well.

[Baldini]

Looking at the ranking 1-16 from the 1st regional rankings and adjusting for losses since then, the probable #1 seed in each quadrant would be CNU, Transylvania, Simpson, and Smith or Scranton. Of course, changes in vrro for the new unreleased regional rankings might affect the order.

My guess (in no particular order):
1 seeds - CNU, Transylvania, Simpson and Smith
2 seeds - Scranton, NYU, Hope, Amherst
Next 8 - Tufts, UW-Whitewater, Trine, Gettysburg, Ithaca, Messiah, DePauw, Whitman

Not sure if Whitman gets to host so it might be MHB

If we use the bracket (we probably can't) the seeds in order, look like this.   

1's - CNU, Hope, Transylvania, Simpson
2's - UW-WW, Trine, Scranton, Amherst
Next 8 - Tufts, NYU, Ithaca, Smith, Gettysburg, MHB, UW-EC, Hardin-Simmons or Whitman

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Unless I'm missing one, looks like 2 flights with both Whitman and Whitter headed to Hardin-Simmons. As Ryan noted this allowed for more flexibility and it appears they were a bit more creative with it. Like the overall bracket.

Yep, looks like just the two. UMHB barely makes it to Rhodes at 593 miles.