Pool C

[deiscanton]

The official NCAA DIII Women's Basketball NPI Summary Report for games played through Wednesday, Feb. 26, 2025 has been released.  It is available at http://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/43096

[deiscanton]

I have been watching Hoopsville this afternoon and have seen Dave McHugh's interview with Brockport women's coach Corrinne Jones.

Bubble teams on the women's side are going to be rooting for Brockport to beat Geneseo on Saturday and get the Empire 8 AQ, because Geneseo will be a bid thief if they beat Brockport in the Empire 8 championship game.

As of right now, Brockport is ranked #35 in the NPI at 58.788.   According to D3Datacast, Brockport's NPI currently gives the Golden Eagles the 12th at-large bid in the NCAA DIII women's basketball tournament if they needed it if selections were done today.

A loss on Saturday to Geneseo drops Brockport's NPI to an average of 58.400 according to Scott Peterson's season simulations as of this morning.   Brockport's final NPI is projected to fall into a range between 58.100 and 59.400.  This morning's 1,000 season simulations gave Brockport an at-large if they needed it 821 times out of 1,000.  That most likely means that Brockport would most likely be one of the last 7 teams into the NCAA DIII women's basketball tournament if they lose on Saturday.

On the other hand, Geneseo is ranked #65 in the NPI at 56.359.  That means that Geneseo needs to win on Saturday to get the AQ-- otherwise, Geneseo is out.   

[deiscanton]

The D3Datacast computer did another unofficial run of the NPI numbers through games of Thursday Feb. 27, 2025-- it was conducted on Friday, Feb. 28 at 7:16 AM ET. 


  These projections are if selections were occurring right now, and not this upcoming Sunday evening.

D3Datacast's projected Last 7 In through games of Thursday, Feb. 27, 2025 by NPI and NPI ranking

1.)  #40-- Texas Lutheran-- 58.197
2.)  #41-- Hope-- 58.135
3.)  #43-- UW-Stevens Point-- 57.961
4.)  #45-- Mary Hardin-Baylor-- 57.853
5.)  #47-- UW-La Crosse-- 57.797
6.)  #48-- WashU-- 57.768
7.)  #49-- Ohio Northern-- 57.729

D3 Datacast's projected First 7 Out by NPI and NPI rankings through games of Thursday, Feb. 27, 2025

1.) #52-- Rhode Island College-- 57.490
2.) #53-- Capital-- 57.438
3.) #54-- Emory-- 57.230
4.) #56-- Bridgewater (VA)-- 57.105
5.) #57-- Hardin-Simmons-- 57.009
6.) #58-- John Carroll-- 56.902
7.) #59-- Montclair State-- 56.842

[deiscanton]

The official NCAA DIII Women's Basketball NPI Ranking Summary Report for games played through Thursday, February 27, 2025 has been released.  It is available at http://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/43114

[deiscanton]

The D3Datacast computer did another unofficial run of the NPI numbers through games of Friday Feb. 28, 2025-- it was conducted on Saturday, March 1 at 8:01 AM ET. 


  These projections are if selections were occurring right now, and not this upcoming Sunday evening.

D3Datacast's projected Last 7 In through games of Friday, Feb. 28, 2025 by NPI and NPI ranking

1.)  #38-- Texas Lutheran-- 58.344
2.)  #39-- Endicott-- 58.247
3.)  #42-- UW-Stevens Point-- 57.970
4.)  #45-- WashU-- 57.804
5.)  #46-- UW-La Crosse-- 57.799
6.)  #48-- Ohio Northern-- 57.718
7.)  #49-- Hardin-Simmons-- 57.701

D3 Datacast's projected First 7 Out by NPI and NPI rankings through games of Friday, Feb. 28, 2025

1.) #51-- Hope-- 57.506
2.) #52-- Mary Hardin-Baylor-- 57.460
3.) #53-- Rhode Island College-- 57.436
4.) #54-- Capital-- 57.397
5.) #55-- Emory-- 57.303
6.) #57-- Bridgewater (VA)-- 57.116
7.) #59-- John Carroll-- 56.915

[deiscanton]

The official NCAA DIII Women's Basketball NPI Ranking Summary Report for games played through Friday, February 28, 2025 has been released.  It is available at http://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/43135

[deiscanton]

The D3Datacast computer did another unofficial run of the NPI numbers through games of Saturday March 1, 2025-- it was conducted on Saturday, March 1 at 11:43 PM ET. 


  These projections are if selections were occurring right now, and not approx 15 hours from now, when the last AQ gets decided.  Suffice it to say at this time, however, that if your team is among the First 7 Out as of this post, your team's bubble has popped and your team is not going to make the NCAA DIII Women's Tournament.

D3Datacast's projected Last 7 In through games of Saturday, March 1, 2025 by NPI and NPI ranking

1.)  #34-- Merchant Marine-- 59.115
2.)  #35-- McMurry-- 58.946
3.)  #37-- Tufts-- 58.866
4.)  #38-- Bates-- 58.369
5.)  #42-- Brockport-- 58.243
6.)  #43-- UW-Stevens Point-- 58.026
7.)  #45-- UW- La Crosse-- 57.824

D3 Datacast's projected First 7 Out by NPI and NPI rankings through games of Saturday, March 1, 2025

1.) #46-- Mary Hardin-Baylor-- 57.640
2.) #47-- Hope-- 57.618
3.) #48-- Ohio Northern-- 57.508
4.) #49-- Hardin-Simmons-- 57.448
5.) #50-- Capital-- 57.424
6.) #51-- WashU-- 57.419
7.) #52-- Rhode Island College-- 57.393

[deiscanton]

At this point among the Last 7 In, it looks like Merchant Marine, McMurry, Tufts, and Bates are going to make the NCAA DIII Women's Tournament.

There are only 3 potential bid thief games left to be played this Sunday afternoon.  Brockport, UW-Stevens Point, and UW-LaCrosse want to root for Smith, Bowdoin, and Texas Lutheran to win this afternoon.

NEWMAC-- MIT at Smith-- MIT is the potential bid thief.
NESCAC-- Colby at Bowdoin-- Colby is the potential bid thief.
SCAC-- Trinity (TX) at Texas Lutheran-- Trinity (TX) is the potential bid thief.

The other AQs being decided this afternoon are (1) the Centennial, in which the loser between Gettysburg and Johns Hopkins is safely in as an at-large bid, and (2) the Liberty League, which is a one bid league.  (Vassar vs Ithaca)

[deiscanton]

The official NCAA DIII Women's Basketball NPI Ranking Summary Report for games played through Saturday, March 1, 2025 has been released.  It is available at http://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/43136

[deiscanton]

The D3Datacast computer did the final unofficial run of the NPI numbers through games of Sunday, March 2, 2025-- it was conducted on Sunday, March 2 at 4:45 PM ET.

In addition, the NCAA DIII Women's Basketball Committee has confirmed these numbers through their release of the official NPI ranking selections report this evening.

The official NCAA DIII Women's Basketball NPI ranking selections report is available at http://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/43153

Congratulations to the following at-large teams selected by the NPI, and commiserations to those teams who did not make it to the NCAA DIII Women's Basketball Championship.


The official Last 7 In through games of Sunday, March 2, 2025 by NPI and NPI ranking

15.)  #34-- Trinity (CT)-- 59.095
16.)  #35-- McMurry-- 58.930
17.)  #37-- Tufts-- 58.826
18.)  #38-- Bates-- 58.622
19.)  #42-- Brockport-- 58.233
20.)  #43-- UW-Stevens Point-- 58.023
21.)  #45-- UW-La Crosse-- 57.820

The official First 7 Out by NPI and NPI rankings through games of Sunday, March 2, 2025

1.) #46-- Mary Hardin-Baylor-- 57.626
2.) #47-- Hope-- 57.614
3.) #48-- Ohio Northern-- 57.502
4.) #49-- Hardin-Simmons-- 57.439
5.) #50-- Capital-- 57.420
6.) #51-- WashU-- 57.403
7.) #52-- Rhode Island College-- 57.380

[deiscanton]

The official NCAA DIII Women's Basketball NPI Ranking Selections Summary Report has been released.  It is available at http://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/43153

The following at-large teams are the first 14 teams selected by the NPI rankings to the NCAA DIII Women's Basketball Championship.   Congratulations on making the field!  The previous post already listed the last 7 into the field and the first 7 out.

First 14 at-large teams selected into the field through NPI rankings.

1.) #10-- UW-Oshkosh-- 63.564
2.) #14-- Johns Hopkins-- 61.731
3.) #15-- Catholic-- 61.406
4.) #16-- Ohio Wesleyan-- 61.382
5.) #18-- Carnegie Mellon-- 61.309
6.) #19-- Bethel-- 61.285
7.) #21-- Trine-- 61.254
8.) #23-- UW-Stout-- 60.768
9.) #24-- Elizabethtown-- 60.736
10.) #25-- Western New England-- 60.274
11.) #26-- Colorado College-- 60.065
12.) #27-- Washington and Lee-- 59.990
13.) #32-- Amherst-- 59.226
14.) #33-- Merchant Marine-- 59.116

[Ralph Turner]

I count 5 Pool C's in the Sweet 16:

#10 UW-Oshkosh
#14 JHU
#16 Ohio Wesleyan
#23 UW-Stout
#35 McMurry (a #9 seed)

I think that McMurry can be grateful for the geographical proximity/isolation that set up the ETBU pod and cobbled travel orphans together.

Corrections appreciated.
Only SUNY-Geneseo, a #13, was a lower seed.