Pool C

[deiscanton]

In the Central, Wash U has now fallen out of the top 6 in the regional rankings.   This situation is starting to remind me of the 2008-09 Chicago women's basketball team, which had a stellar resume for Pool C consideration, but was also not ranked in the top 6 in the Central Region.   Because of upsets in league tournaments involving Central Region teams that were ranked higher than Chicago, the Maroons never got to the national table for Pool C discussion before the Pool C bids ran out nationally.

Wash U is now in single-elimination tournament mode.   The Bears must win out against NYU, Brandeis, and Chicago-- another loss will eliminate Wash U from NCAA consideration.

However, if the Bears win out their remaining home games, I believe that Wash U will jump back into the top 6 in the Central Region rankings.   

Conference tournaments to watch now affecting the Central rankings--  CCIW, WIAC, Northern Athletics Conference.  (Hope that Illinois Wesleyan wins CCIW AQ, that one of the 3 regionally ranked WIAC teams win the AQ there, and hope that Wisconsin Lutheran wins the AQ from the Northern Athletics Conference.)

[jaybird44]

Yes, when I saw Wash-U drop out of the Central Region rankings, I knew that the
Bears will need to win their last 3 games to get a chance to grab what Willy Wonka might call a "Golden Ticket" to the D-III tournament.

D-III is very fascinating.  Very, very different than D-1; where teams can loaf through a non-conference schedule, and if you have 20 wins against decent competition, you get in much more often than not.  However, with so many more teams in D-III, and hence a lot more teams with great records looking for a Golden Ticket, EVERY game is important--even the early-season non-conference contests.

I wonder how many schools learn that lesson the hard and painful way each season?

[Ralph Turner]

Yes,  330 schools and 10 power conferences going for 30+ at large bids in D-1.

410 schools and only 4-5 power conferences going for 20 at large bids in D-3.

Add 10 more at-large bids and WashU is probably a lock.

IMHO, the Power Conferences are different (and fewer) in the women versus the men.

[deiscanton]

Chicago has officially clinched the UAA Women's Basketball Title and has received the automatic bid to the NCAAs with a 77-49 victory over NYU today.

Wash U now officially needs a Pool C to get in-- Wash U defeated Brandeis 79-47 today in UAA play.

With Wisconsin Lutheran coming from behind to win at Dominican (IL) 96-91 in overtime yesterday behind WLC's Erika Laete's 50 point performance, are the Central region rankings probably going to remain the same this week, with WLC at #6 in Central and Wash U not in the top 6 in Central?

Regardless of the order in the rankings between WLC and Wash U, I still believe that Wash U needs to beat Chicago next Saturday to leave no doubt...

[deiscanton]

I just took a look at the performances of all of the women's teams that were regionally ranked in the Central this week.

I saw that #5 in Central UW-La Crosse took a loss over the weekend at the hands of #2 in Central UW-Stevens Point.

UW-La Crosse now has six in-region losses, and will have seven in-region losses if they fall into Pool C. 

Most likely, unless UW-Lax wins the WIAC tournament, they will also take another loss to a regionally ranked opponent this week.

UW-La Crosse's in-region pct through Feb. 20 is now 18-6 in region (.750)

UW-La Crosse is now 2-5 in-region (.286) vs regionally ranked opponents  (1-0 vs Chicago, 1-1 vs UW-Whitewater, 0-1 vs Coe, 0-1 vs Chapman, 0-2 vs UW-Stevens Point.

Discussion that I am seeing on the WIAC forum says that UW-La Crosse needs to win the WIAC tournament to make the NCAAs.

Wash U's in-region pct through games of Feb. 20 is now 17-3 in-region (.850), 20-4 overall.

Wash U can do no worse than a 17-4 mark in-region (.810), and if the Bears defeat Chicago on Saturday, Wash U will finish at 18-3 (.857) in-region with a 2-3 in-region record vs regionally ranked opponents.

I await the new Central region rankings on Wednesday, but I think that Wash U will be back in the top 6 in Central when the next regional rankings come out as a result of UW- La Crosse's loss to Stevens Point this weekend.

[jaybird44]

That is slightly encouraging for Wash-U fans and followers, but most of the folks around the Hilltop Campus are keeping the mantra "Leave No Doubt" firmly in mind and on their tongues, as the final game of the regular season with Chicago approaches.

[deiscanton]

That is slightly encouraging for Wash-U fans and followers, but most of the folks around the Hilltop Campus are keeping the mantra "Leave No Doubt" firmly in mind and on their tongues, as the final game of the regular season with Chicago approaches.

That is good advice.   I have lived through the years when DIII only had a 50 team field with 7 at large Pool C bids.  My two Brandeis teams that won ECAC New England Championships would have easily been in the NCAA DIII Tournament had a 63 or 64 team field existed back then.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Final Regional Rankings before Selection Sunday: http://www.d3blogs.com/d3hoops/category/ncaa-stuff/regional-rankings/

[deiscanton]

Wash U is back at #6 in Central this week, but it is probably best for Wash U to win on Saturday vs #5 in Central Chicago to "leave no doubt", as jaybird44 is saying.....

Pool C candidates this week-- NCAA Tournament resumes

1.)   Wash U-- #6 in Central  

Wash U's in-region record is 17-3 (.850)

Wash U's in-region SOS is .534 this week (.528 OWP, .545 OOWP)

Wash U is 1-3 in-region vs regionally ranked opponents (0-1 vs Illinois Wesleyan (#1 in Central), 0-1 vs Chicago (#5 Central, UAA AQ), 1-1 vs Rochester (#1 in East, UAA))

2.)    Rochester-- #1 in East

Rochester's in-region record is 17-5 (.773)

Rochester's in-region SOS is .552 this week (.559 OWP, .534 OOWP)

Rochester is 2-4 in-region vs regionally ranked opponents (0-1 vs Medaille (#3 in East), 1-0 vs Ithaca (#4 in East), 1-1 vs Wash U (#6 Central, UAA), 0-2 vs Chicago (#5 Central, UAA AQ).

(Note:  These were the Pool C candidates that were already existing from the University Athletic Association coming into the week before the conference tournaments started.   As of Wednesday, Kean from the NJAC has joined that list and I have modified this post and the quote from "gadk" following this post telling me to update the list in light of the NJAC semifinal upset.  I am updating the list this morning-- Feb. 24, 2011 to reflect conference tourney results-- Comments to follow later today, Feb. 24, 2011-- "deiscanton")

3.)    Kean-- #1 in Atlantic-- Lost in NJAC Semifinals

Final in-region record of Kean is 19-2 (.905)

In-region SOS through games of Feb. 20 is .593  (.605 OWP, .558 OOWP)

Kean is 6-0 in-region vs regionally ranked opponents (1-0 vs William Paterson (#3 Atlantic), 2-0 vs Richard Stockton (once ranked in Atlantic), 1-0 vs Amherst (#1 in Northeast-- Same Geographic/Administrative Region), 1-0 vs Messiah (#4-Mid-Atlantic, in-region under 200 mile rule), 1-0 vs Scranton (once ranked in Mid-Atlantic, in-region under 200 mile rule.)

Kean has a secondary criteria loss to Illinois Wesleyan-- #1 in Central

[gadk]

Wash U is back at #6 in Central this week, but it is probably best for Wash U to win on Saturday vs #5 in Central Chicago to "leave no doubt", as jaybird44 is saying.....

UAA Pool C candidates this week-- NCAA Tournament resumes

1.)  Wash U-- #6 in Central 

Wash U's in-region record is 17-3 (.850)

Wash U's in-region SOS is .534 this week (.528 OWP, .545 OOWP)

Wash U is 1-3 in-region vs regionally ranked opponents (0-1 vs Illinois Wesleyan (#1 in Central), 0-1 vs Chicago (#5 Central, UAA AQ), 1-1 vs Rochester (#1 in East, UAA))

2.)    Rochester-- #1 in East

Rochester's in-region record is 17-5 (.773)

Rochester's in-region SOS is .552 this week (.559 OWP, .534 OOWP)

Rochester is 2-4 in-region vs regionally ranked opponents (0-1 vs Medaille (#3 in East), 1-0 vs Ithaca (#4 in East), 1-1 vs Wash U (#6 Central, UAA), 0-2 vs Chicago (#5 Central, UAA AQ).

3.) Kean-- #1 in Atlantic

19-2 in region

[deiscanton]

Wash U is back at #6 in Central this week, but it is probably best for Wash U to win on Saturday vs #5 in Central Chicago to "leave no doubt", as jaybird44 is saying.....

 Pool C candidates this week-- NCAA Tournament resumes

1.)   Wash U-- #6 in Central  

Wash U's in-region record is 17-3 (.850)

Wash U's in-region SOS is .534 this week (.528 OWP, .545 OOWP)

Wash U is 1-3 in-region vs regionally ranked opponents (0-1 vs Illinois Wesleyan (#1 in Central), 0-1 vs Chicago (#5 Central, UAA AQ), 1-1 vs Rochester (#1 in East, UAA))

2.)    Rochester-- #1 in East

Rochester's in-region record is 17-5 (.773)

Rochester's in-region SOS is .552 this week (.559 OWP, .534 OOWP)

Rochester is 2-4 in-region vs regionally ranked opponents (0-1 vs Medaille (#3 in East), 1-0 vs Ithaca (#4 in East), 1-1 vs Wash U (#6 Central, UAA), 0-2 vs Chicago (#5 Central, UAA AQ).

3.) Kean-- #1 in Atlantic

19-2 in region  (Note from "deiscanton"-- In-region winning pct now at .905 with loss in NJAC Tournament)

Kean's in-region SOS is .593 through Games of Feb. 20-- OWP is .605, OOWP is .568

Kean is 6-0 in region vs regionally ranked opponents through games of Feb. 20

I am updating Reply #383 to reflect the new info, and I will plan to continue to do updates to Reply #383 as new information comes in....

[deiscanton]

Wash U is back at #6 in Central this week, but it is probably best for Wash U to win on Saturday vs #5 in Central Chicago to "leave no doubt", as jaybird44 is saying.....

Pool C candidates this week-- NCAA Tournament resumes

1.)   Wash U-- #6 in Central  

Wash U's in-region record is 17-3 (.850)

Wash U's in-region SOS is .534 this week (.528 OWP, .545 OOWP)

Wash U is 1-3 in-region vs regionally ranked opponents (0-1 vs Illinois Wesleyan (#1 in Central), 0-1 vs Chicago (#5 Central, UAA AQ), 1-1 vs Rochester (#1 in East, UAA))

2.)    Rochester-- #1 in East

Rochester's in-region record is 17-5 (.773)

Rochester's in-region SOS is .552 this week (.559 OWP, .534 OOWP)

Rochester is 2-4 in-region vs regionally ranked opponents (0-1 vs Medaille (#3 in East), 1-0 vs Ithaca (#4 in East), 1-1 vs Wash U (#6 Central, UAA), 0-2 vs Chicago (#5 Central, UAA AQ).

(Note:  These were the Pool C candidates that were already existing from the University Athletic Association coming into the week before the conference tournaments started.   As of Wednesday, Kean from the NJAC has joined that list and I have modified this post and the quote from "gadk" following this post telling me to update the list in light of the NJAC semifinal upset.  I am updating the list this morning-- Feb. 24, 2011 to reflect conference tourney results-- Comments to follow later today, Feb. 24, 2011-- "deiscanton")

3.)    Kean-- #1 in Atlantic-- Lost in NJAC Semifinals

Final in-region record of Kean is 19-2 (.905)

In-region SOS through games of Feb. 20 is .593  (.605 OWP, .558 OOWP)

Kean is 6-0 in-region vs regionally ranked opponents (1-0 vs William Paterson (#3 Atlantic), 2-0 vs Richard Stockton (once ranked in Atlantic), 1-0 vs Amherst (#1 in Northeast-- Same Geographic/Administrative Region), 1-0 vs Messiah (#4-Mid-Atlantic, in-region under 200 mile rule), 1-0 vs Scranton (once ranked in Mid-Atlantic, in-region under 200 mile rule.)

Kean has a secondary criteria loss to Illinois Wesleyan-- #1 in Central

Note:  This is the most recent update to Reply #383 , reflecting tourney results as of Thursday morning, Feb. 24, 2011

Further updates will happen as conference tournament results continue.

[7express]

Here's my thoughts on the Northeast, as usual feel free to post your thoughts whether you agree, disagree, whatever.

Amherst, Williams, Bowdoin, Colby, Babson & West Conn are in no matter what happens this week.  USM (#10 Northeast) is hanging by a thread and a loss Friday to Eastern eliminates them.  Think the final Northeast selection will come down to Tufts (#9 Northeast) vs. Eastern (#7 Northeast), assuming Eastern doesn't win the LEC that is.  Right now I'd give the slight edge to Tufts, even though they lost to Eastern head-to-head.  Think their body of work overall is better, plus the NESCAC had better competition then the LEC did this year.  Thats all subject to change as the week progresses, and if Eastern wins Friday I'll probably flip-flop Eastern and Tufts.

[deiscanton]

Considering that Bates is ranked ahead of Tufts in the Northeast Regional rankings that were released yesterday-- (Bates is at #8 in Northeast, and Tufts is at #9 in Northeast), I'd be a little surprised this year if NESCAC gets 5 teams in.   I agree that the top 6 in the Northeast are locks to be in the NCAAs, (and I'll say that the top 6 in the Central are very close to being locks as well-- WIAC definitely sends 3 teams in-- if Illinois Wesleyan wins the CCIW tournament, that should lock the current top 6 in the Central in-- plus a Wash U victory over Chicago on Saturday would lock in the top 6 in the Central as well.)

The NESCAC semifinalists are definitely in the NCAAs no matter what happens the rest of the week, as well as Babson and Western Connecticut.

I'll say that S. Maine needs to win the Little East tournament to make NCAAs-- not an impossible task for the legendary coach Gary Fifield.

E. Conn State's head to head win over Tufts earlier this season gives the Warriors the advantage over the Jumbos-- I don't think that Tufts can counteract this.  Had Tufts won last Saturday at Williams, the prospects of the NESCAC getting 5 teams in would have improved.

I'll update the list again with the NESCAC teams already eliminated from the conference tournament.

[deiscanton]

Wash U is back at #6 in Central this week, but it is probably best for Wash U to win on Saturday vs #5 in Central Chicago to "leave no doubt", as jaybird44 is saying.....

Pool C candidates this week-- NCAA Tournament resumes

1.)   Wash U-- #6 in Central  

Wash U's in-region record is 17-3 (.850)

Wash U's in-region SOS is .534 this week (.528 OWP, .545 OOWP)

Wash U is 1-3 in-region vs regionally ranked opponents (0-1 vs Illinois Wesleyan (#1 in Central), 0-1 vs Chicago (#5 Central, UAA AQ), 1-1 vs Rochester (#1 in East, UAA))

2.)    Rochester-- #1 in East

Rochester's in-region record is 17-5 (.773)

Rochester's in-region SOS is .552 this week (.559 OWP, .534 OOWP)

Rochester is 2-4 in-region vs regionally ranked opponents (0-1 vs Medaille (#3 in East), 1-0 vs Ithaca (#4 in East), 1-1 vs Wash U (#6 Central, UAA), 0-2 vs Chicago (#5 Central, UAA AQ).

(Note:  These were the Pool C candidates that were already existing from the University Athletic Association coming into the week before the conference tournaments started.   As of Wednesday, Kean from the NJAC has joined that list and I have modified this post and the quote from "gadk" following this post telling me to update the list in light of the NJAC semifinal upset.  I am updating the list this morning-- Feb. 24, 2011 to reflect conference tourney results-- Comments to follow later today, Feb. 24, 2011-- "deiscanton")

3.)    Kean-- #1 in Atlantic-- Lost in NJAC Semifinals

Final in-region record of Kean is 19-2 (.905)

In-region SOS through games of Feb. 20 is .593  (.605 OWP, .558 OOWP)

Kean is 6-0 in-region vs regionally ranked opponents (1-0 vs William Paterson (#3 Atlantic), 2-0 vs Richard Stockton (once ranked in Atlantic), 1-0 vs Amherst (#1 in Northeast-- Same Geographic/Administrative Region), 1-0 vs Messiah (#4-Mid-Atlantic, in-region under 200 mile rule), 1-0 vs Scranton (once ranked in Mid-Atlantic, in-region under 200 mile rule.)

Kean has a secondary criteria loss to Illinois Wesleyan-- #1 in Central

4.)   Bates-- #8 in Northeast-- Lost in NESCAC Quarterfinal

Final in-region record of Bates is 15-7 (.682)

In-region SOS through games of Feb. 20 is .638  (.671 OWP, .571 OOWP)

Bates is 3-7 in-region vs regionally ranked opponents (1-0 vs S. Maine (#10 Northeast), 1-1 vs Colby (#3 Northeast), 1-1 vs Bowdoin (#2 Northeast), 0-1 vs Amherst (#1 Northeast), 0-1 vs Williams (#4 Northeast), 0-1 vs W. Connecticut (#6 Northeast), 0-1 vs Tufts (#9 Northeast))

5.)    Tufts-- #9 in Northeast-- Lost in NESCAC Quarterfinal

Final in-region record of Tufts is 17-6 (.739)

In-region SOS through games of Feb. 20 is .575 (.573 OWP, .579 OOWP)

Tufts is 2-5 in-region vs regionally ranked opponents (1-0 vs Bowdoin (#2 Northeast), 1-0 vs Bates (#8 Northeast), 0-1 vs Amherst (#1 Northeast), 0-1 vs Colby (#3 Northeast), 0-2 vs Williams (#4 Northeast), 0-1 vs E. Connecticut (#7 Northeast))

6.)    Mary Washington-- #6 in Atlantic-- Lost in CAC Semifinal

Final in-region record of Mary Washington is 18-6 (.750)

In-region SOS through games of Feb. 20 is .542 (.561 OWP, .506 OOWP)

Mary Washington is 1-2 in-region vs regionally ranked opponents (1-0 vs Roanoke (once ranked in South-- same geographic/administrative region), 0-1 vs Christopher Newport (#3 South-- in region under 200 mile rule) 0-1 vs Randolph-Macon (#4 South-- in-region under 200 mile rule)