Pool C

[scottiedawg]

If these teams don't win their conferences, I think it bursts a Pool C bubble:

For sure bursts a bubble (7)
Roger Williams
Transylvania
Ithaca
Wisconsin Lutheran
Whitman
Rhodes
Cortland

Potentially bursts a bubble (2)
St. John Fisher (potentially)
DePauw (potentially)

I think most of the other conferences have a pretty clear Pool C backing the "predicted Pool A" (though totally possible for a non-top 2 team to win the auto bid in a conference)

[Baldini]

Reg   Team           Conf           C Rnk
R01   Amherst           NESCAC   1
R07   Hope           MIAA   2
R09   UW-Oshkosh   WIAC   3
R02   Springfield   NEWMAC   4
R05   Johns Hopkins   CC           5
R09   UW-Eau Claire   WIAC   6
R05   Elizabethtown   LAND   7
R07   Baldwin Wallace   OAC           8
R01   Trinity (Conn.)   NESCAC   9
R05   Catholic           LAND   10
R02   Babson           NEWMAC   11
R05   Salisbury           C2C           12
R07   Marietta           OAC           13
R10   East Texas Bap   ASC           14
R09   Wartburg           ARC           15
R05   York (Pa.)           MACC   16
R06   Mary Wash   C2C           17
R10   Puget Sound   NWC           18
R02   WPI                   NEWMAC   19
R10   Hardin-Simmon   ASC           20
R01   Husson           NAC           21
R03   Hartwick           E8           22
R01   Bates           NESCAC   23
R07   Oberlin           NCAC   24
R03   SUNY New Paltz   SUNYAC   25

https://tomaroonandgold.blogspot.com/p/division-iii-womens-basketball-regional.html

Using Matt Snyder's work the above are the top 25 "C" pool teams. This assumes there is an "A" team ahead for each of these conferences (for example Tufts is the NESCAC auto-bid, therefore Amherst shows up as the first "C" team from Region 1).

Given there will be upsets in the conference tournaments, where an "A" team loses but still deserves a "C" spot, we should assume 15-ish of these teams get an invite and those 5 upset winners, who are not in the top 25 "C" teams listed above, are added to the tournament.

Thanks for sharing, Matt's stuff is always great. The conflict here is that I was using the regional rankings from last week and if they hold form teams like Elizabethtown may be blocked from ever getting to the table.

https://www.d3hoops.com/notables/2022/02/women-regional-rankings-first 

[Baldini]

If these teams don't win their conferences, I think it bursts a Pool C bubble:

For sure bursts a bubble (7)
Roger Williams
Transylvania
Ithaca
Wisconsin Lutheran
Whitman
Rhodes
Cortland

Potentially bursts a bubble (2)
St. John Fisher (potentially)
DePauw (potentially)

I think most of the other conferences have a pretty clear Pool C backing the "predicted Pool A" (though totally possible for a non-top 2 team to win the auto bid in a conference)

Depauw is already a lock to make the tournament, if they lose in conference there is no potentially about it they are in. If Wisconsin Lutheran loses another, they probably fall behind Carroll in Region 8 and very well may never get to the table either.

[scottiedawg]

Yep, I wasn't clear.

If any of those teams lose, I think they get a Pool C, and the team replacing them with a Pool A means that lower Pool C's have their bubble burst.

DePauw is way in. If you think Oberlin already gets a Pool C, then Oberlin upsetting and taking the Pool A doesn't burst anyone's bubble. But if you think Oberlin is outside the Pool C cutoff, then them winning the NCAC Pool A will burst someone's bubble, because DePauw would be a Pool C lock in that scenario.

[scottiedawg]

I'm analyzing teams that at first glance seem like they should be Regionally Ranked, and since they're not, seeing what we can infer/assume about how the committee is valuing specific criteria.

TLDR:
SOS under ~0.480 is very unlikely to be regionally ranked
WP under ~0.535 is very unlikely to be regionally ranked


Interesting to see Webster not in the Regional Rankings, but Oberlin, RIC, and Southern Virginia are.

All 4 have:
* Win % over 0.800
* SOS under .520
* 0 wins vRRO

Oberlin, RIC, and Southern Virginia are 0-2, 0-4, 0-3 v RRO. Webster is 0-0.

Webster has by fas the worst SOS, but also by far the best win%.

This would indicate to me that the committee views Webster's SOS in a non-linear way, basically it's too low to consider them at all.

Lowest SOS by a RRO is 0.482

This would be why we don't see Framingham State in the RRO either.




Next analysis: Mt. St. Mary
0.870 WP
0.512 SOS
0-1 v RRO

Now there are 3 ranked teams with 0 wins vRRO (the three mentioned above)

Mt. St. Mary has a higher WP than all three (well, tied with Oberlin), AND a higher SOS.

Really not sure what's the difference there that caused Mt. St. Mary to miss the regional rankings.


Next analysis: Merchant Marine
Very low SOS and 0-0 vRRO. but really not that different from RIC or Southern Virginia


Next analysis: UW-Stout
Team A:
0.565 WP
0.625 SOS
4-6 v RRO

Team B:
0.542 WP
0.608 SOS
5-8 v RRO


Team A is UW-Stout (not regionally ranked)
Team B is WashU (5th in Region 8)


Among the top SOS teams, WashU has the worst WP.

We can assume that any WP under ~0.535 won't be considered for Regional Rankings.

Coast Guard and UW-LaCrosse have similar WP and SOS to WashU, but much worse RRO record. Makes sense why they're not ranked.

UW-Stout is the only team with at least 4 wins vRRO that is not regionally ranked.


Next analysis: Pacific
Team A
0.720 WP
0.547 SOS
2-4 v RRO

Team B
0.650 WP
0.543 SOS
1-6 v RRO


Team A is Pacific (not ranked)
Team B is UT Dallas (#8 in Region 10)

I think Pacific has a much much stronger resume.


Next analysis: Northwestern Minn
Basically identical resume to Augsburg. Augsburg right at the bottom of the regional rankings. I bet Northwestern was first one out.


Next analysis: Widener
Team A
0.696 WP
0.524 SOS
1-7 v RRO

Team B
0.739 WP
0.519 SOS
2-5 v RRO


Team A is Ohio Northern (#10 in Region 7)
Team B is Widener (not ranked)


Next analysis: Roanoke
Team A
0.800 WP
0.525 SOS
1-4 v RRO

Team B
0.800 WP
0.512 SOS
1-4 v RRO


Team A is Roanoke (not ranked)
Team B is Piedmont (#6 in Region 6)




Scott's opinion
Should be out:
Montclair St.
UT Dallas
Ohio Northern
King's PA
RIC


Should be in:
Mt. St. Mary
UW-Stout
Pacific
Widener
Roanoke



We're splitting hairs here at the bottom of regions, but of course, it has big implications for Pool C bids, hosting, and "seeding"

[scottiedawg]

One big caveat is it looks like no region will have fewer than 7 teams ranked? Can someone confirm that?

This is a big deal in Region 4, as otherwise I think all of the bottom 3 would be in danger of being unranked.

Similar, to a lesser extent, with Region 2.

[Baldini]

Interesting that Matt Snyder has Greensboro 4th and Roanoke 5th in region 6 yet they are not ranked regionally by the committee.

[scottiedawg]

Yep, I think Matt is just applying a formula to generate his rankings, while the committee is doing more "picking and choosing." (Definitely not saying one is better than the other, just stating assumptions)

Greensboro has a 0.446 SOS. And I think that's so low, that the committee is not gonna even look at the rest of the resume. Similar with Webster.

I really have no idea why Roanoke isn't regionally ranked. I think they have a better resume than ~8-12 teams that ARE regionally ranked.

[Flying Dutch Fan]

One big caveat is it looks like no region will have fewer than 7 teams ranked? Can someone confirm that?

This is a big deal in Region 4, as otherwise I think all of the bottom 3 would be in danger of being unranked.

Similar, to a lesser extent, with Region 2.

Pretty sure the number ranked in each region last week wil be the number ranked this week (that number is a specific % - 20% - of the number of teams in the region).  As I understand it, they do rank teams further down (aka the unranked) for the selection and seeding of the tournament - since there will be auto-qulifiers who are not ranked teams, and you need the ranking to compare them.  Also may be used if all the ranked teams in a region are already in the tournament, and you need to bring the next best team in that region to the selection process

[scottiedawg]

(that number is a specific % - 20% - of the number of teams in the region).

Important fact that I didn't know. Thanks FDF!

So now a lot of my musings are null and void, since you can't knock out a Region 4 team for say a Region 9 team.

[Augie2020]

Baldini on Region 5 I see you have JH and Catholic you wouldn't put Etown in even though they beat Catholic head to head twice? Also against John Hopkins S.O.S for Etown is higher I think 557 to 535?

[Augie2020]

Maybe Etown,Catholic and John Hopkins get in not sure.U guys do this alot.Truly appreciate it.Gives us an idea how it all comes together.

[Baldini]

(that number is a specific % - 20% - of the number of teams in the region).

Important fact that I didn't know. Thanks FDF!

So now a lot of my musings are null and void, since you can't knock out a Region 4 team for say a Region 9 team.

I was wondering where you were going with that but didn't have the energy to get into why it didn't make sense.

[Baldini]

Baldini on Region 5 I see you have JH and Catholic you wouldn't put Etown in even though they beat Catholic head to head twice and also against John Hopkins S.O.S for Etown is higher I think 557 to 535?

I was just going off of the regional rankings and if all stays the same in Region 5 Etown will have a long wait to get in if they even get to the table for discussion.

Current Region 5 rankings.
1   Scranton   21-2   21-2
2   Gettysburg   20-3   20-3
3   Messiah   19-2   19-2
4   Johns Hopkins   19-3   19-3
5   Catholic   19-2   19-2
6   York (Pa.)   17-5   17-5
7   Elizabethtown   18-4   18-4
8   Salisbury   16-4   18-4
9   Marymount   13-7   13-7

Under this situation Elizabethtown cannot even be discussed until JHU, Catholic and York have all been selected. Would not be surprised if York blocked Etown from ever having a chance.   

[saratoga]

Baldini:
By the time the Regional Committee meets for this week, Catholic will have added two more losses (1 to E-town & 1 to Scranton).
Should E-town knock off Catholic for a third time in the Landmark first round, they will have made their case for a spot & it will be the Cardinals working the beads.