Pool C

[gordonmann]

How about Otterbein?

[Baldini]

How about Otterbein?

IMHO it feels like their season ended tonight.

[scottiedawg]

How about Otterbein?

IMHO it feels like their season ended tonight.

Unfortunately agreed. They were in my high 20s of Pool C teams before last night's loss. I think teams like Stevens, Carroll, Husson, York, are just ahead of them, and I think those team's chances are pretty slim.

[MrMaus]

I have 26 teams I think are locks (higher I am more certain):
Christopher Newport
Hope
Trine
Transylvania
Simpson
Whitman
New York University
Amherst
Tufts
DePauw
UW-Whitewater
John Carroll
Scranton
Baldwin Wallace
Trinity (Texas)
Mary Hardin-Baylor
Smith
Wartburg
Messiah
East Texas Baptist
Springfield
Ithaca
Gettysburg
Trinity (Conn.)
DeSales
UW-Eau Claire

There are 21 conferences I think are 1 and done based on conference tournament.

That takes up 47 slots so far leaving ...

There are 7 teams currently expected to win their conference who would fall to the bubble if they don't win (again, higher more certain) but are certainly 7 spots:
Wisconsin Lutheran
St. John Fisher
Millikin
Rhodes
Roger Williams
Redlands
Emmanuel

Now we are up to 54, leaving 10 spots open which would be reduced by potential upsets in the "lock" conferences, but that number should be pretty small (one or two). So any of the above 7, if they lose conference tournaments, and the below 14 become my bubble ... all to fill 8-10 spots.

Lastly I have 14 teams I think could be bubble sitters (again, higher is more likely):
Hardin-Simmons
Marietta
UC Santa Cruz
UW-Oshkosh
Catholic
Elizabethtown
Puget Sound
Johns Hopkins
Stevens
Babson
Mary Washington
Bates
Loras
York (Pa.)

Thoughts?

[Baldini]

That is very good stuff MrMaus, I think you pretty much nailed it. First thought was that the MIAC runner-up should be a bubble sitter, but any lose for Augsburg or GAC probably keeps them from getting to the table. The next regional rankings should be out tonight, and they should be interesting to see what movement has occurred. Nice work.

[Baldini]

New regional ranking is out.

https://www.d3hoops.com/notables/2022/02/women-regional-rankings-second

Elizabethtown is now ahead of Catholic and York, which was to be expected.

[scottiedawg]

I think Marymount was below the bubble before tonight, but after tonight's loss, their season is likely over.

[scottiedawg]

Teams that fell out of the Regional Rankings:

Region 1
Bowdoin (#9) - Bad for: Smith, Bates x2, St. Joseph's ME, Trinity Conn, Tufts, Amherst, Husson

Region 2
MIT (#6) - Bad for: RIC, Emmanuel, Bowdoin, Tufts, Smith, Springfield, WPI, Babson

Region 3
St. Lawrence (#8) - Bad for: Vassar x3, Ithaca x2, 

Region 4
Montclair St. (#7) - Bad for: Stevens, MWU,

Region 6
Southern Virginia (#8) - Bad for: CNU, Rochester, MWU, Greensboro x2,

Region 8
WashU (#5) - Bad for: UW-LaCrosse, Wisconsin Lutheran, Rhodes, DePauw, IWU, Millikin, Chicago x2, Emory x2, Rochester x2, NYU x2,

Region 9
Gustavus Adolphus (#8) - Bad for: Simpson, Bethel x2, Augsburg x2, UW-Stout,

Region 10
Texas-Dallas (#8) - Bad for: Whitman, MHB x2, UW-Eau Claire, ETBU, HSU,

[scottiedawg]

One thing I don't get:

First Regional Rankings
Region 7
1 - Trine
2 - DePauw

Second Regional Rankings
1 - DePauw
2 - Trine

What happened in between?
Both teams 2-0
DePauw @ Ohio Wesleyan, vs. Wooster
Trine vs. St. Mary's IN, @ Adrian

Ohio Wesleyan is clearly the best win of those 4.

BUT, DePauw lost WashU as a win v RRO


DePauw losing an RRO win seems like the most significant thing to happen to either team this week. And DePauw passes Trine??

[scottiedawg]

Whitman lost UT-Dallas (was their ONLY win v RRO), BUT, gained 2 wins v RRO with Puget Sound getting into the regional rankings. That is massive for Whitman.

I don't think a 0 wins v RRO Whitman team gets "seeded" very well by the committee.

[scottiedawg]

The committee had NO ONE for that last spot in Region 1 that ended up going to Framingham St. They have the worst SOS of any regionally ranked team.

Bowdoin is a low WP, very high SOS, that is ~2-9 v RRO.
Framingham is a high WP, very low SOS, that is ~1-1 v RRO.

Just wildly different resumes.

I'd have probably stuck with Bowdoin in that last spot.

The other candidates are:
Wesleyan
Colby
Albertus Magnus
Hamilton
Williams

[scottiedawg]

Region 3
Paltz went from 1 to 2 wins v RRO with Mt. St. Mary getting in. Clearly the reason they move all the way up to #4 in the region. I think they're neck-and-neck with Hartwick.

If the committee is picking Vassar over St. Lawrence, I think Bowdoin over Framingham would have been the consistent choice. Vassar is the "low WP, higher SOS" resume, just like Bowdoin is.


Region 4
The bottom of region 4 is very weak as well. Brooklyn is one of the 3 weakest teams to be regionally ranked, IMO. But really not sure I'd pick a different team than the committee picked. Misericordia, New Jersey City, Montclair St., William Paterson -- no great resumes in there.


Region 6
I would push up Emory in Region 6. Lotta wins v RRO. Their resume is stronger to me than the 3 teams directly ahead of them.

Region 5
This is a STRONG region. There will be 5 automatic qualifiers. And I have 4 more in the Pool C crowd, with a 5th on the bubble. Just a bunch of strong resumes.

Region 7
It's a close call, but I'd pick Ohio Wesleyan's resume over Ohio Northern's. But super close.


Region 9
I would pick Stout over 2 teams in Region 9. But that's my soft spot for strong SOS + more wins v RRO resumes. I think the committee is pretty consistent in their treatment of those resumes. I would just treat them differently.


Region 10
I like Pacific in Region 10 over Redlands or Puget Sound. But it's close.



I have Regions 3, 4, and 8 getting ZERO at large teams into the tournament. Just the AQs there.

[MrMaus]

Teams that fell out of the Regional Rankings:

It was my understanding that any team that was in the regional rankings for the last two weeks (this week and last week) would be considered a "Regionally Ranked Opponent" for the NCAA selection process.

So I have spent the last 1/2 hour hunting for  written validation of that statement I just made but I can't find it. At this point I think I heard it on one of the Hoopsville podcasts, specifically when he was interviewing one of the committee members about the selection process, but I don't have the time to re-listen to them all to find it.

I also noticed that on the Region PDFs the changes did not seem to flow into the data (specifically I looked at Amherst and Tufts whose numbers did not change).

[Augie2020]

Scottiedawg:Totally agree with you on region 5!Very Srong region this year!

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Teams that fell out of the Regional Rankings:

It was my understanding that any team that was in the regional rankings for the last two weeks (this week and last week) would be considered a "Regionally Ranked Opponent" for the NCAA selection process.

So I have spent the last 1/2 hour hunting for  written validation of that statement I just made but I can't find it. At this point I think I heard it on one of the Hoopsville podcasts, specifically when he was interviewing one of the committee members about the selection process, but I don't have the time to re-listen to them all to find it.

I also noticed that on the Region PDFs the changes did not seem to flow into the data (specifically I looked at Amherst and Tufts whose numbers did not change).

It's this current ranking and the one the committees will do on Sunday that count. Not last week.