Pool C

[scottiedawg]

I also noticed that on the Region PDFs the changes did not seem to flow into the data (specifically I looked at Amherst and Tufts whose numbers did not change).

Not sure if you're referring to their WP, SOS, vRRO, or other, but their records v RRO wouldn't have changed, because:

Amherst record v RRO:
Gained win over RIC (who entered the rankings)
Lost win over Bowdoin (fell out of rankings)


Tufts record v RRO:
Gained win over University of New England
Lost win over Bowdoin

[scottiedawg]

This was a baaaaaad Regional Rankings update for Hardin-Simmons. Now way down to 1 win vRRO.  I think they need the ASC auto.

Roanoke moving into the rankings really helps Shenandoah and Washington & Lee. I think both teams have moved up onto the bubble.

[scottiedawg]

Team A
0.905 WP
0.482 SOS
1-2 v RRO
#2 in Region

Team B
0.792 WP
0.504 SOS
2-2 v RRO
not ranked in region (8 teams ranked)

The resume gap between these teams is TINY.


(Team A is Rhodes, Team B is Shenandoah)

the remaining games in Region 6 have massive implications. (not for other teams' record v RRO since the 2nd regional rankings will count for RRO purposes). But for Pool C purposes.

If Rhodes does not get the SAA auto bid (which means they lose), I could see them falling below 4th or 5th in the region. I don't think they have a Pool C resume at all. The only thing that gives me pause is somehow the committee put them 2nd in the region! The resumes are all over the place in region 6.

Emory v Rochester is a big game. I don't think Emory is even on the bubble (I think they're below it), but beating Rochester and potentially moving into the top 3 in the region would help.

Unfortunately Berea has little to gain by beating Greensboro, but lots to lose.

Piedmont vs. S Virginia is a massive game for the region. S Virginia could get into the rankings with a win I think.

[Baldini]

This was a baaaaaad Regional Rankings update for Hardin-Simmons. Now way down to 1 win vRRO.  I think they need the ASC auto.

Roanoke moving into the rankings really helps Shenandoah and Washington & Lee. I think both teams have moved up onto the bubble.

We are seeing these things a little differently. The new regional rankings were a big positive for Hardin-Simmons, they moved ahead of UC-Santa Cruz and Redlands in their region and without that move their chance of ever getting to the table were very small. The data sheets show them with 2 wins.

I don't have any understanding of the Shenandoah talk for Pool C, their only chance at getting in is the AQ in the ODAC which in all likelihood is a one bid conference this year.   

[scottiedawg]

This was a baaaaaad Regional Rankings update for Hardin-Simmons. Now way down to 1 win vRRO.  I think they need the ASC auto.

Roanoke moving into the rankings really helps Shenandoah and Washington & Lee. I think both teams have moved up onto the bubble.

We are seeing these things a little differently. The new regional rankings were a big positive for Hardin-Simmons, they moved ahead of UC-Santa Cruz and Redlands in their region and without that move their chance of ever getting to the table were very small. The data sheets show them with 2 wins.

I don't have any understanding of the Shenandoah talk for Pool C, their only chance at getting in is the AQ in the ODAC which in all likelihood is a one bid conference this year.

You're right that moving up the rankings was good for HSU (it's VERY bad for Redlands and UC Santa Cruz, as you pointed out).

I'm using Matt Snyder's data, which shows 1 win v RRO. Looking at HSU's schedule I think the data sheets are wrong? I only see the win over Trinity. Dallas is now out of the rankings.

Hardin-Simmons NEEDS the 4 Region 10 AQs to be chalk: MHB, Whitman, Trinity, Redlands (that last one matters less).

Even then ETBU will be on the table before them. I could see ETBU making it within the first 1/3 Pool C picks. And I could absolutely see HSU sit on the table for the final 2/3. Perhaps they sneak in.

I just think with a few Region 6 losses ahead of them, Shenandoah could move from out of the rankings to in the top 5 or even 4. They're definitely at bottom of Pool C teams, but I think the committee would slot their resume ahead of these teams:
UC Santa Cruz
Husson
St. Joseph's ME


still a long shot for a Pool C, but all I'm saying is the recent rankings really helped Shenandoah.

[Baldini]

This was a baaaaaad Regional Rankings update for Hardin-Simmons. Now way down to 1 win vRRO.  I think they need the ASC auto.

Roanoke moving into the rankings really helps Shenandoah and Washington & Lee. I think both teams have moved up onto the bubble.

We are seeing these things a little differently. The new regional rankings were a big positive for Hardin-Simmons, they moved ahead of UC-Santa Cruz and Redlands in their region and without that move their chance of ever getting to the table were very small. The data sheets show them with 2 wins.

I don't have any understanding of the Shenandoah talk for Pool C, their only chance at getting in is the AQ in the ODAC which in all likelihood is a one bid conference this year.

You're right that moving up the rankings was good for HSU (it's VERY bad for Redlands and UC Santa Cruz, as you pointed out).

I'm using Matt Snyder's data, which shows 1 win v RRO. Looking at HSU's schedule I think the data sheets are wrong? I only see the win over Trinity. Dallas is now out of the rankings.

Hardin-Simmons NEEDS the 4 Region 10 AQs to be chalk: MHB, Whitman, Trinity, Redlands (that last one matters less).

Even then ETBU will be on the table before them. I could see ETBU making it within the first 1/3 Pool C picks. And I could absolutely see HSU sit on the table for the final 2/3. Perhaps they sneak in.

I just think with a few Region 6 losses ahead of them, Shenandoah could move from out of the rankings to in the top 5 or even 4. They're definitely at bottom of Pool C teams, but I think the committee would slot their resume ahead of these teams:
UC Santa Cruz
Husson
St. Joseph's ME


still a long shot for a Pool C, but all I'm saying is the recent rankings really helped Shenandoah.

For Shenandoah to be in the Pool C conversion means they did not get the AQ, which means they lose another game. They are not moving from unranked to top 5 or better by losing in the ODAC tournament.

Region 6 is light this year and I will be surprised if they have any teams make it from Pool C, barring conference tournament upsets at the very top of the rankings. 

[gordonmann]

Baldini is right to mention the mechanics of how this process works because they impact which teams get selected. Whatever the numbers say, you can't get selected for an AQ if you can't get to the table. And you won't get to the table if you're buried in or entirely outside of the rankings.

[scottiedawg]

I was forgetting the fact that if they don't get an A, they will have lost again.

If they do end up getting the A, I think a side result is they could end up in the top 4 of that region's rankings.

[gordonmann]

Makes sense.

Each year I try to offer instant analysis on our Conference Tournament tracker which teams have a shot at an at-large bid. Each year I do a pretty crappy job. So now I'm just going to steal what you, Baldini, Mr. Maus and Matt say. I'll find a way to credit you.

[VT-Alum-NOVA]

If WashLee wins ODAC tournament, I could see them hosting (if they submitted for host) in lieu of CNU hosting.

[MrMaus]

I am going to ignore teams that I think are in for sure (you can figure it out since I list the current regional rankings) and the placeholders for conferences that are getting only one invite (my list includes 20 conferences).

R01   Emmanuel         3
R01   Trinity (Conn.)   4
R01   Bates                5
Region 1 regional ranking depends on the last few games. Bates beating Trinity in semi-final could swap those two. Emmanuel losing could drop them, perhaps below both. My guess is two of these three are in. All three perhaps if Emmanuel and Bates win their conferences.
Total 6 or 7.

R02   Roger Williams  3
R02   Babson             4
Do you take Babson, if they lose to Smith in the final, instead of Roger Williams if they lose to Gordon, Endicott or UNE?
Total 5 or stretch 6.

R03   Cortland             3
R03   SUNY New Paltz  4
Do you take the loser of these two in the final? I say no, but I am wrong alot.
Total 3 or stretch 4.

R04   DeSales   2
R04   Stevens   3
DeSales is in regardless, so ... does Stevens only get in if they win the conference?
Total 5 or stretch 6.

R05   Johns Hopkins  4
R05   Elizabethtown   5
R05   Catholic           6
Catholic will jump E-town and I think it is between them and Johns Hopkins, if they make the final, for one spot.
Total 6.

R06   Mary Washington   4
Really has to make a run deep into the C2C buzz saw.
Total 5 or stretch 6.

R07   Marietta    6
R07   Otterbein   7
Both lost, ended their seasons.
Total 7.

R08   Illinois Wesleyan  4
R08   Carroll                5
I don't think either is even on the bubble.
Total 4.

R09   UW-Oshkosh  4
R09   Wartburg       5
R09   Loras            6
I have the first two in. I think Loras is in with a win over Wartburg tonight.
Total 8 or 9.

R10   Hardin-Simmons  5
R10   Redlands             6
R10   UC Santa Cruz     7
R10   Puget Sound        8
I have HS in. Redlands only if they win conf. I have a soft spot for USSC as I have watched one of their seniors since she was in the 6th grade. I think they would make a fun 64th team in for a top 16 team to have to deal with. A run the conference tournament sure would help. Puget Sound ... heck, if they make the final ... maybe.
Total 6 or 7.

And, yes, I can do math, that adds up to 55 "for sure" spots and only 7 stretch teams ... so I am short 2. Let's save those for an upset in a couple of the conference tournaments. 

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Conference tournaments are fully on. It is time for upsets and great games happening at all times. The results will not only be conference champions, but NCAA tourney dreams realized ... and dashed.

Thursday on Hoopsville, we catch up with a number of teams which realize they have to keep winning this week if they want to keep playing next week. "There is no more next game ..."

There are plenty of guests to talk to, so we are jamming them into a super-sized show. Some have quietly emerged on top, or near the top, of their conference races and hope to use home court advantage to win an automatic bid. Others knowing they have to win to make sure to keep playing this season. And one coach who shows that there is a lot of things that are important during basketball season.


Guests include (order subject to change):

• Chad Dickman, Hood men's coach
• Sean Coffey, Utica men's coach
• Pat McKenzie, St. John's men's coach
• Jacey Brooks, SUNY Cortland women's coach
• Christine VanHook, PSU-Behrend women's coach
• Stephany Dunmyer, Oberlin women's coach
• Todd Kent, UC Santa Cruz women's coach

Hoopsville is presented by D3hoops.com and airs from the NABC Studio. All guests appear on the BlueFrame Technology Hoopsville Hotline.

Watch the show here: www.d3hoops.com/hoopsville/archives/2021-22/feb24

[scottiedawg]

I think the seasons are over for:
* Ohio Northern
* Loras
* Rowan
* University of New England

[scottiedawg]

At this point I do expect Marietta, UW-Oshkosh, Elizabethtown to get Pool C bids, as long as there aren't too many bid thieves.

I have Elizabethtown ~17th among Pool C bids.

I think Puget Sound's season is over.

[Baldini]

Redlands is an interesting one, do they steal a Pool C bid or are they on the outside looking in now?