Pool C

scottiedawg · February 25, 2022, 04:36:26 PM

Agreed. That's why I'm curious if Ryan has further thoughts or information on how the committee traditionally has treated women's teams from weak conferences.

Because looking at the criteria, the data, and the regional rankings, I see inconsistencies across regions, specifically around the very low SOS teams.

gordonmann · February 25, 2022, 06:33:08 PM

This board will get a lot of hits over the next couple days. I know some coaches monitor it.

Might be good for folks to post a list of the at-large picks and then update it with teams coming onto it (like DePauw is about to) and off of it.

Just a suggestion.

scottiedawg · February 25, 2022, 07:07:12 PM

There's too much fluidity in my Pool C predictions for that to be useful for me to post.

But DePauw is a Pool C lock and I don't have another NCAC team as a Pool C candidate. There's our first Bid Thief.

I think Salisbury will get strong Pool C consideration, but this loss drops them closer to the bubble. But it's not a Bid Thief scenario as we all expect CNU to get the C2C Pool A bid.

scottiedawg · February 25, 2022, 07:08:12 PM

Other teams that lost tonight (or are losing) that I don't think are in the running for a Pool C:
Calvin
Mary Washington
Albion
Greensboro
Rose-Hulman
Wittenberg

scottiedawg · February 25, 2022, 07:33:44 PM

I think IWU is a Pool C longshot, so they needed this win tonight to keep their season going.

I think Carroll is inside the Pool C bids group still, but getting dangerously close to the bubble.

scottiedawg · February 25, 2022, 07:46:31 PM

Northwestern Minn ~~loses~~ down 20 in the 4th quarter in the UMAC Semis. I think they're on the bubble--outside looking in. Likely not a Bid Thief situation.

scottiedawg · February 25, 2022, 08:38:41 PM

York loses to Widener. York is ~~close to the bubble~~. I think York is still pretty safe at this point though.

Bubble teams need Messiah to take care of business because Widener would be a Bid Thief.

scottiedawg · February 25, 2022, 09:19:39 PM

Nazareth with a slight upset of Hartwick. I do not think Hartwick was on the bubble to begin with, and a loss will drop them further. I don't see any Pool C implications from this result.

scottiedawg · February 25, 2022, 09:37:01 PM

Bethany Lutheran loses to Minnesota Morris. I've got Bethany below the bubble teams; a longshot to be a Pool C.

I didn't have any UMAC team slated for a Pool C so whether North Central (Minn.) or Minnesota-Morris take the Pool A, no bid thieves.

scottiedawg · February 25, 2022, 09:41:39 PM

Millikin takes care of business against Wheaton. I believe Wheaton's season is done.

scottiedawg · February 25, 2022, 09:42:00 PM

UW-Eau Claire takes down UW-Whitewater with a very very impressive 2nd half.

EU was already a solid Pool C and UWW is a Pool C lock. No bid thieves here.

scottiedawg · February 25, 2022, 09:50:34 PM

Lynchburg with a small upset of Roanoke. I had Roanoke below the bubble teams so I believe their season is over.

I think at least 1 of Washington & Lee and Shenandoah is a Pool C team (Shenandoah needs to enter the final regional rankings pretty high to have a chance but I think their resume supports that).

There is potential for a bid thief from the ODAC.

WLCALUM83 · February 25, 2022, 10:04:37 PM

Wisconsin Lutheran and St. Norbert both won NACC semi-final games. If St. Norbert loses in the AQ game, do the Green Knights still get in?

scottiedawg · February 25, 2022, 10:10:43 PM

Quote from: WLCALUM83 on February 25, 2022, 10:04:37 PM
Wisconsin Lutheran and St. Norbert both won NACC semi-final games. If St. Norbert loses in the AQ game, do the Green Knights still get in?

Unfortunately I don't think so. The win over Benedictine wasn't an RRO, so their resume is getting only incrementally stronger via WP and SOS. I have St. Norbert currently as my 51st Pool C team. That'll rise slightly as their WP and SOS get updated after tonight, but they really need to be around the top 18 to have a strong Pool C chance. I think it's Pool A or bust for them.

scottiedawg · February 25, 2022, 10:28:08 PM

HSU winning probably crushed UCSC's Pool C hopes.

UCSC needs to hop both Redlands and HSU to really have a Pool C shot, and while they might hop Redlands, I think that's as high as they'd get in Region 10.

Santa Cruz could have the strongest SOS in all of D3 AND 4 wins v RRO. I think they deserve a Pool C bid. Impressive win against Salisbury.

Kean and MWU have similar, but worse resumes to UCSC, and both rank 4th in their respective regions. Unfortunately for UCSC they play in a stronger region than Kean or MWU do.